Projections: Starting pitchers
January 30th, 2008 | Published in San Diego Padres, baseball, projections | 7 Comments
Check here for an intro to this mini series and links to the various projection systems. We’ve finished up the offense — now on to the starting rotation. I’ll list innings, k’s, bb’s, hr’s, and ERA.
Average ERA in Petco (via ZiPS): 4.14
Jake Peavy
Marcel: 192, 197, 59, 16, 3.23
BJH: …. 212, 217, 67, 20, 3.23
CHONE: 217, 222, 64, 19, 2.99
ZIPS: … 214, 221, 56, 19, 2.99
Chris Young
Marcel: 164, 148, 63, 17, 3.51
BJH: …. 186, 166, 68, 21, 3.34
CHONE: 170, 157, 69, 18, 3.39
ZiPS: …. 176, 165, 60, 18, 3.32
Greg Maddux
Marcel: 180, 101, 35, 17, 4.30
BJH: …. 200, 121, 31, 21, 3.60
CHONE: 205, 111, 36, 19, 3.91
ZiPS: ….. 200, 106, 34, 18, 3.91
Randy Wolf
Marcel: 117, 95, 47, 15, 4.85
BJH: …. 100, 81, 36, 13, 4.32
CHONE: 98, 80, 40, 10, 4.04
ZiPS: ….. 93, 75, 42, 14, 5.03 *projected with the Dodgers
Mark Prior
Marcel: 64, 58, 26, 9, 4.78
BJH: …. 75, 85, 26, 10, 3.60
CHONE: 68, 61, 26, 8, 3.97
ZiPS: …. 68, 75, 25, 9, 3.84
Justin Germano
Marcel: 123, 82, 40, 13, 4.24
BJH: …. 137, 92, 34, 17, 4.40
CHONE: 160, 104, 44, 18, 4.11
ZiPS: …. 172, 105, 36, 21, 4.24
Clay Hensley
Marcel: 91, 61, 39, 8, 4.35
BJH: …. 48, 32, 21, 4, 4.13
CHONE: 141, 93, 64, 14, 4.40
ZiPS: …. 145, 92, 61, 14, 4.47
If you want me to do any others … just ask. Anyway, the systems are all pretty much in agreement on Jake Peavy. They’re also right there on Young. You’d expect this, as guys who’ve pitched a lot of innings of late are going to be easier to project, in general. They’re all of the place with Wolf, though. I mean, there’s a range of one ERA-wise and they are pretty much spread out all over. ZiPS really doesn’t like him. CHONE loves him (at least, relatively speaking). The other two fall somewhere in between.
I averaged up the inning projections for Prior and Wolf.
Wolf: 101
Prior: 69
If you assume that your rotation needs like 935 innings are needed out of the rotation (what they pitched last year),the Padres are going to need around an additional 220 innings to finish out the back end (by the projections, of course). In fact, why don’t I do that right down the board:
Peavy: 209
Young: 174
Maddux: 196
Wolf: 101
Prior: 69
Again, if you assume 935 innings from starters, the Pads are now only going to need 186 extra innings. I’m not sure which number is a better estimate, but it’s pretty clear that they’re probably going to need another good 200 innings in the rotation (not from these 5 guys). Of course, projections for pitchers are tough and projecting injuries is probably even tougher (and largely unexplored, I believe), so these may or may not be on the mark. But it’s important for the Padres not to expect too much — and it’s good that they have a couple of decent back end guys like Hensley and Germano to fill in. They’ll likely be needed.
A quick note on Peavy: the 4 projections have him at: 209 innings, 3.11 ERA. Average in this context (according to ZiPS) is 4.14. So he’s projected to be like 24 runs above average … or, if we assume replacement level is league average + 1 run, about 47 runs above replacement. Or ~ $20 million on the free agent market.
January 31st, 2008 at 6:12 pm (#)
Good to see all those numbers.
I’d be very surpised and happy to see that many innings out of Prior. Also with Hensley. I doubt Hensley will be with the team prior to August and even then be as effective as those number project for a pitcher that’s recovered from an injury that required a major operation.
Not at all excited about Germano with those numbers and that many innings. I’m guessing if his peripheral doesn’t improve from last half of last season, he’ll go the way of Matt Thompson.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:00 pm (#)
Yeah, I certainly overlooked that aspect with Hensley. I thought he’d be back earlier. I kind of agree about Germano … I think he’ll definitely regress a bit, but for a 6th or 7th guy I don’t think he’s that bad.
I do think they should look for another starter — or will, depending on how things shake out.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:38 am (#)
I think Germano actually has a good chance of hitting those numbers. Seat of the pants, I think at least part of his regression late last year was fatigue; I believe that ‘07 was the first time he’d pitched past the end of the AAA season. His monthly splits are kinda wacky, though; his 2 bad months are completely different. One has an average BABIP and very low GB rate (July, 7.24 ERA), and the other has a well above average BABIP and relatively high GB rate (September, 5.68). His August actually was pretty decent (3.86). Interestingly, Germano’s ERA was about 60 points higher at home than on the road; kinda makes sense given that he’s a groundball pitcher.
Not really sure what, if anything, to make of all that…
February 1st, 2008 at 10:43 am (#)
[...] of starting pitchers, MB covers them in his latest look at projections for ‘08 at Friar Forecast. Did I mention that the back end makes me very [...]
February 1st, 2008 at 1:23 pm (#)
I actually really like those projections for Germano and Hensley. Whether or not they can hit them is the big question. But if that’s accurate for Germano, a 95 ERA+ from the fifth/sixth starter is excellent. Hensley’s numbers would also be great from a sixth/seventh starter.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:49 pm (#)
[...] over at Friar Forecast has been doing some projections as well (Projections: Starting Pitchers) and appears to be infatuated with Khalil Greene lately that you can see…. Here Here Here [...]
February 1st, 2008 at 7:58 pm (#)
3: Yeah, I don’t know. Lots of groundballs equals a higher BABiP, all other things being equal. Also the home/road splits make sense like you say, although the sample size is pretty tiny.
5: I agree. Thing is, though, there’s a pretty good chance Germano may be your 4th guy real quick. I hope — and kinda think — the Padres are still looking for an extra guy in the rotation … somebody under the radar.