According to the UT, the Padres have signed first round pick Allan Dykstra for $1.4 million. Krasovic also notes that the Padres plan on being very aggressive in the Dominican Republic before the July 2 signing deadline. Interesting …

Geoff Young with a thought provoking piece at THT … but don’t believe me, read the article ; ) Anyway, unlike many of my classes at college, I enjoyed the few philosophy-based ones I had.

Along the same lines, check out this comment by “digglahhh,” buried deep inside a lengthy thread on sabermetrics:

I guess, it goes back to the, now cliche, statement by Alfred Korzybski, “the map is not the territory.” I have no doubt you guys are sketching the most precise and detailed map possible, my only question is the essential likeness it bears and its functionality as it relates to the actual territory, the game itself.

The game isn’t based on thousands of trials, during which variables are attempted to be controlled. The game is defined by glares of sun peeking through clouds, mysterious gusts of winds, a ball dropping three inches to left or right - something which neither the batter nor the pitcher consciously controls. The larger truths, in all their specificity, are meaningless over the course of a game or series, on the ground, in the territory.

That is, in fact, the beauty of the whole landscape. The margins are small, baseball is a game of inches, so too is statistical analysis. Every play in every inning of every game is a unique event. The statistical advantages levied by in-depth research are small enough to still allow an individual to justifiably play a hunch, and sometime success is about nothing more than defying the odds over the course of a few trials. To me, knowing about the statistical side of the game only makes me appreciate the novelty of anomalous stretches even more, it helps me to manage my expectations.

But, am I going to conclude that Miguel Cabrera is better or worse than Ryan Howard on the basis of two win shares, or three base runs, or whatever - nope! I just don’t trust any metric to that degree, not in the face of the myriad other variables unable to be accounted for, not in the face of the territory.

Pretty well said, I think.

Josh Kalk looks into fatigue, fastball speed, and movement.

Nate Silver takes a look at Chipper’s shot at .400. A very good piece. He concludes:

I estimate that Jones has about a 12-13 percent chance of finishing with a .400 average.

Wow, that’s higher than I expected … and apparently higher than others expected, too. A great discussion, though most of it takes place somewhere in the vicinity of well above my head.

Rich Lederer breaks down the top college hitters taken in the draft by looking at their splits. On Dykstra:

Excluding Brett Wallace from the mix, the Padres made Allan Dykstra the fifth first baseman selected in last week’s draft. The 6-foot-5, 240-pound lefthanded hitter combines raw power with the ability to take a walk. He slugged 16 HR and ranked second in the country with 62 BB in only 56 games. Dykstra struggled on Friday nights (although in a much smaller sample size than normal), going 6-for-33 with 2 HR. He was named as an All-Star in the Cape Cod League last summer, hitting .308/.444/.481 while ranking third in OBP. Dykstra was a teammate at Wake Forest with second baseman Matt Antonelli, who was SD’s first-round pick (17th overall) in 2006.

Paul DePodesta on the draft:

At the Padres, we want to win every game we play at every level and we want to be right on every single player decision we make. We know it’s not going to happen, because there is too much uncertainty… too much we cannot control. That said, we can control the process.

There is the gist of it … um, great stuff.

Okay, that’s it. I should have the fielding ratings done by next week, and if I get ambitious (and it’s not that difficult in the first place), maybe we’ll get through a position or two over the weekend. Got a few other fun things planned, too. Have a nice weekend, folks.