I was going to take a deeper look into this, but I figured I’d hold off. There really isn’t much to discuss right now. I mean, this guy is under contract for the rest of this year (obviously), all of next year, and most likely 2009 as well. It’s very rare that you talk about a guys contractual situation mid season — 2 1/2 year before he is actually going to be a free agent. That being said, I’m not against talking about the future. Heck,  I put the word forecast in the title of this blog. I guess there are a few angles I’ll try to cover quickly.

Why talk about this now?

For the UT, I think that answer is pretty simple. It sells paper, gets clicks, etc. They’re making money off of it and I don’t really fault them for running the article. I guess the real question is why is Peavy so eager to talk about it? Again, he’s not a free agent until 2010. He’s also pitching on a contending club in the heat of a playoff race. While I understand that he can say whatever he wants (and it’s nice to see someone say what is on their mind, I guess), it just seems like a strange time to take such an upfront stance on the issue.

There is a lot that can happen between now and then

In 2 years a ton can happen. Imagine we’re sitting here in July of 09 … who knows what the Padres will look like. Who knows what kind of year Peavy will be having … maybe he’ll be injured or maybe he be in the middle of another dominant campaign. Maybe the Padres will win the World Series next year. It’s just a long way away.

But can’t we get something done sooner than later

I suppose getting something done in the off-season could have its advantages. Peavy may sign for a discount if he knows he’ll be locked up through 2012 or whatever. Maybe they could tear up the current contract and work out something new. It’s a little too much speculation for me, but I’m sure the Padres are looking at it from all possible angles.

Ok, so what is Peavy worth?

This requires a post of its own, and like I said, I’m not going to get too into it right now. Part of the problem is that we want to evaluate an extension that will likely take place after 2009, but we don’t even know exactly what kind of pitcher Peavy will be then. It’s only 2007! Anyhow, here’s what Nate Silver’s MORP tool projects Peavy to be worth:

07: 17.2 m
08: 17.5 m
09: 18.3 m
10: 16.8 m
11: 15 m

Certainly, he’s a steal right now if you look at what he should get on the open market. That’s the main reason why I think I’d like to ride out the contract through 09. He is a bargain right now. MORP has him at 17 m in 2010 and 15 m 2011. From 2010-13, maybe he’ll be around 55-60 million (according to MORP). I’m just guessing, of course, as it doesn’t extend that far out.

While the 29-32 age range isn’t the peak for pitchers, it certainly isn’t when they fall apart either. It’s possibly that Peavy could string together 4-5 consecutive solid years, but the chances of injury and ineffectiveness creep higher and higher as his age goes beyond 30. Pitchers are a constant injury risk and are harder to evaluate than positions players. That’s why, I think, it’s scary to tie up a large portion of your payroll into a pitcher.

Final thoughts?

Jake Peavy is perhaps my favorite Padre and I definitely hope he stays here past 2009. In reality, though, that’s a long way away. We still have probably 2.5 years to watch him, unless a trade goes down before then. If Peavy truly wants to stay here, I think they’ll get a deal worked out … a “fair” deal that won’t kill the Padres financially, but also won’t lave Jake Peavy broke. If he wants Zambrano money — which I’m sure he could consider “fair” — then I don’t think he’ll be here past 2009.

I’m sure this will be covered in every way possible on the great Padre blogs tomorrow. We’ll have to see what everyone else thinks about the situation.