by Daniel Gettinger

The Padres’ projected 2009 rotation is an absolute disaster.  The depth chart on Padres.com lists (in order) Peavy, Young, Baek, Correia, Geer, LeBlanc, and Prior.  After Peavy and Young, the quality of the pitchers relative to each other is debatable, but none of them can genuinely be thought of as reliable options, either this year, or in future years.  That’s the problem.  Not only is the Padres starting rotation likely to be terrible in 2009, but things do not look poised to improve much in 2010. 

It is one thing to state the Padres rotation will be awful in 2009, but aside from the obscure hodgepodge of names, what can we really expect?*  To answer this question, I used an average of the Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel predictions available at fangraphs.  The numbers for Correia were massaged because CHONE considered him a reliever, and Bill James predicted he would start in only 41% of his appearances.  Also, to make up the gap in games started, I assume replacement level pitchers will start 18.5 games, and last an average of 5 innings per start.  I then calculated the predicted win values using the method outlined by Dave Cameron.  The table posted below contains the relevant data:

*Note: For the purposes of this analysis, I am assuming Peavy will not be traded.  In actuality, I believe Peavy will be traded, but I have no good justification, just a hunch.  Likewise, I am assuming the Padres will not sign a free agent pitcher.  While I am longing for the team to sign Ben Sheets to a 2 deal worth $12 million per season, I think the probability of that happening is close to 0.

This model predicts the starters will throw 890.5 innings, and total 7.27 wins more than a staff full of replacement pitchers.  For comparison purposes, last year’s starting pitchers threw 909.4 innings, and totaled approximately 5.87 wins over replacement level.  (Note: The 5.87 wins are an approximation, arrived at by dividing runs above replacement by 10).  To put into perspective how awful this projected rotation is, consider Tim Lincecum.  Last year, he contributed 7.5 wins more than a replacement level pitcher.  Surrounding the 2008 version of Tim Lincecum with a bunch of replacement pitchers would result in more wins than the expectation of this predicted 2009 Padres staff.  Another, equally depressing view, is the 2009 staff is not expected to be much better than the 2008 version.

Of course, this analysis only confirms basic intuition.  The 2009 Padres are expected to be bad, and their lack of quality starting pitching is a big reason why.  What bothers me is the lack of quality options available in 2010 as well.  Peavy is young enough that he is unlikely to experience a massive decline in the next few years.  At 29, Chris Young probably has a few good years left in him as well.  So, assuming Peavy is not traded, the 2010 rotation should have at least two solid pitchers. 

The other three rotation spots are dicier.  Neither Baek, nor Correia should be expected to suddenly blossom in 2010.  At best, their performance might be a little better than this year’s predicted performance.  The same goes with Geer and LeBlanc, but with perhaps a little more upside.  Honestly though, a good, contending team would probably not have more than one of these guys in the rotation.  So, what other options does the team have?

Matt Latos is the Padres top pitching prospect, but he has never pitched above A ball.  To expect a great 2010 season from him at the major league level is extremely optimistic.  Will Inman has had success in the minors, but most scouts see his peak as nothing more than a fourth or fifth starter.  I could see both of these guys making solid contributions in 2011, but expectations for 2010 should be tempered.

The way I see it, for the rotation to improve in 2010, the Padres will either need to sign a quality free agent, or make a trade.  Both of these methods have significant drawbacks.  Free agents, and pitchers in particular, are often very expensive, and very risky.  Trading for pitchers is okay in theory, but few teams are looking to give up quality arms, and acquiring one via trade requires the relinquishment of equally valuable assets. 

Making predictions is always tough.  Making predictions about the distant future is nearly impossible.  Too many things can change.  With that said, I am confident the 2009 Padres will have a terrible rotation, and as of this moment, things don’t look much better for 2010.