by Daniel Gettinger

Brian Giles is off to a terrible start.  And that is be putting it lightly.  Giles’ has a 0.151 batting average, and an OPS of 0.437.  Fangraphs estimates he has already cost the Padres 1.6 runs in 2009.  He has been the most destructive player in the major leagues (as measured by WAR), and it isn’t even close.  The second most destructive player, Cody Ross, has only cost his team 0.9 wins.

Recently, when Jake Peavy appeared to be struggling, I noted that his underlying stats showed little reason to be concerned, and predicted his results would be much better going forward.  While it would be unwise to judge my prediction on just a handful of starts, the early returns look good.  In Peavy’s last two starts, he has thrown 15 innings, surrendered only two runs, and struck out 20 batters, while only walking 4.

So, what’s wrong with Brian Giles?  Is he, like Peavy, just getting unlucky, or is there actual reason to be concerned?  The short answer: a little of both.  Giles has gotten unlucky, but he is also having serious issues making solid contact with the ball.

One of the most frequent explanations for Giles’ struggles is that he has been chasing more pitches out of the strike zone than he typically does.  This is not true.  In 2008, Giles swung at 17.4% of the pitches he saw outside of the zone.  This season he has only swung at 13.3% of the pitches outside of the zone, consistent with his career mark of 12.4%.  That’s right, this season Giles is actually doing a better job of laying off pitches than he did last season.

Another complaint has been that Giles is swinging and missing too many pitches.  Again, there is not strong evidence this is the case.  This season, Giles has made contact with 90.3% of the pitches he has swung at. His career mark is a similar 90.8%.  Furthermore, Giles’ 2009 strikeout percentage of 12.6% is no higher than his career mark of 12.8%.

So, if Giles is not chasing more pitches, and is not having a tougher time making contact with the ball, what has been his problem?  Simply, Giles is not making solid contact with the ball.  Only 12.5% of his balls in plays have been line drives.  For his career, Giles’ LD% has consistently (his LD% shows very little variation between years) hovered around 20%.  Instead, Giles is hitting a lot more grounders.  Hitting more grounders, and less line drives is significant because line drives are the type of ball in play that are most likely to go for a hits and extra bases.

While the drop in line drive percentage partially explains the lower batting average and slugging percentage, it does not tell the whole story.  Some of Giles’ struggles can be attributed to poor luck.  This season, Giles has a BABIP of 0.165.  His line drive rate suggests he should have BABIP closer to 0.245.*  This implies Giles should have a batting average of 0.214 rather than 0.151.  

*Note: I am using the simple to calculate E(BABIP)=0.12+LD%.  This is not the most accurate method (xBABIP might be), but it is a reasonable estimation, and can be calculated using easily accessible statistics.

There is even more good news.  Earlier I noted Giles’ LD% has been remarkably consistent throughout his career.  Even if we allow that Giles is not the player he once was, an over 40% drop in LD% from 2008 to 2009 is unlikely to hold.

Unfortunately, the Giles situation is much different from the Peavy situation.  In Peavy’s case, he was essentially the same pitcher he has always been, but with a few starts of terrible luck.  Giles’ struggles can not be entirely attributed to bad luck.  Making solid contact with the ball is a skill, and Giles has not done a good job of it this season.  Even with some regression towards his career LD%, we may still be disappointed with the results.  Giles is 38 years old.  He is not this bad.   But a precipitous drop in performance from the previous year would not be entirely unusual.  Giles will turn things around.  Just not all the way (or even close to all the way) around.