Why the Padres Should Trade Adrian Gonzalez
May 26th, 2009 | Published in Daniel Gettinger, Padres, baseball, trades | 8 Comments
by Daniel Gettinger
This article will result in some of you calling me clueless. That’s okay. Especially since I probably am (clueless). Regardless, this is why I think the Padres should trade Adrian Gonzalez…
1) Adrian is good and cheap.
Yes, this is somewhat counter-intuitive. Almost without exception, teams try to acquire good, cheap players, not give them away. It is usually a formula for success. Unfortunately, the Padres are not very good,* and once they trade Peavy, they will be even worse. Since joining the Padres, Gonzalez has been a consistent 3-4 wins above replacement player. So far in 2009, he has already posted a WAR of 2. His production has well exceeded his pay, and Gonzalez can be expected to continue to generate excess value for his club through the end of his contract in 2011.
As I discussed in the context of the Peavy rumors, a team should only be compensated for the excess value a player provides. Since Adrian’s production well exceeds his pay, and he is locked up for a few more seasons, the Padres should be able to get a very nice package of prospects in return. These prospects are more likely to help the Padres win important games. If the Padres retain Gonzalez, he may help the club win 79 games rather than 75, but in either case, the team will not really be contending.
*Note: I realize (as of writing) the Padres have won 50% of their games, and are currently in second place. But the record, and place in the standings is deceiving. The Padres have a run differential of -33, one of the worst marks in the majors. Furthermore, the team has been remarkably fortunate in one-run games, going 12-5 so far in 2009. While I am happy with the team’s performance so far, I cannot, in good conscience, present an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the season. The Padres will not catch the Dodgers in the NL West, nor will they earn a wildcard berth into the playoffs.
2) Adrian Gonzalez is 27 years old
Adrian is in the prime of his career. He should not decline for a few years. But the Padres might not be true contenders for a few years. He is most valuable to teams that are contending for the playoffs today, and less valuable to teams that are trying to rebuild for “tomorrow.”
3) Adrian is only signed through 2011.
Gonzalez is only signed through 2011. The Padres will not make the playoffs this season, and I doubt the team will be ready to make a serious run in 2010. The best case scenario is that Gonzalez helps the team make the playoffs in 2011. Following the 2011 season, Gonzalez will sign a contract that pays him what he is worth. I am not a huge proponent of dolling out big bucks to 30 year old first basemen, and don’t see the Padres doing so. A package of prospects/young players will give the Padres players who will be under team control for quite a while. Because of the reality of the contract situation, these players are more likely than Adrian to help the team return to an era of consistent competitiveness.
4) Kyle Blanks is Nearly Ready
Kyle Blanks is the Padres’ most advanced prospect. In the minors he has shown a consistent ability to get on base and hit for power. He is 22 years old, and holding his own in AAA while attempting to learn a new position (LF). Blanks is unlikely to duplicate Adrian’s production. But he doesn’t need to. As long as the players the Padres get in return for Adrian can make up the difference, the trade will be a wash.* If Blanks even comes close to reproducing the production of Gonzalez, the Padres will be immensely better off (think the Phillies trading Jim Thome to make room for Ryan Howard).
*Note: Because Blanks has trade value as well, this is not entirely accurate, but it is close enough for our purposes.
Summary:
Adrian is a good player, paid like a mediocre player, and not at all overrated. That said, the Padres are still better off trading him than not. As he is in the prime of his career, and his contract only runs through 2011, Gonzalez provides optimal value to a team built to compete from 2009-2011. The Padres are not such a team. They are most likely to compete from 2011-20??. Gonzalez will fetch a package of good, young players. Trading him will greatly accelerate the rebuilding process.
May 26th, 2009 at 8:56 am (#)
Daniel I agree. The Padres could definitely get much more from trading Gonzalez than by trading Peavy with the lower contract and lack of a no-trade clause. If they do move Gonzalez it should be for a mix of prospects and young players who have already done something in the major leagues. Like you said it is very hard it is very hard to draft and evaluate young prospects as very few pan out. Gonzalez is your diamond and if they do move him they can’t miss on the package they receive back. Yes, the statistical opportunity is there for improvement through a Gonzalez trade, but it is also very risky.
May 26th, 2009 at 4:37 pm (#)
Daniel, I was literally going to start drafting up a post like this in a few days (sorry for the lack of anything on my part in comments or posts).
I agree with you. The Pads have a glut of corner guys coming up (C-IN and C-OF) in Kulbacki, Blanks, Darnell, Forsythe and have Kouzmanoff and Headley on the roster already. I would be okay with the Padres hanging onto Gonzalez until next year’s deadline, but trading him now would net the largest return given his contract having a couple more years + being cost friendly.
May 26th, 2009 at 5:27 pm (#)
Kevin-Wow, I am truly shocked. This might be the first time you have (sort of) agreed with my stance on the possible trade of a decent player on the Padres.
Mike-Good to hear from you. As you said, trading Gonzalez now “would net the largest return,” and since the Padres will not make the playoffs this season, I see no reason to wait.
May 27th, 2009 at 6:39 pm (#)
While I agree based on your logic that we could get a ton for Adrian and, if anything, he and Peavy could be used to completely and utterly revamp the entire team. Having said that though, if you thought attendance and whatnot was down before, if we trade these two guys, its doubtful the padres would have more then 10K people per game.
The padres would have to receive BETTER then a Texeira deal to trade Adrian. Basically they’d have to get (and I’ll use Boston as an example):
At least two TOP pitching prospects (Buchholz and Bowden)
A lower level pitching prospect (Bryan Price)
Another lower level top prospect (Josh Reddick OF)
One more high upside pick (SS Yamaico Navarro)
Five to one that would at least in part clear out the best of the team’s best players from their draft. At least then you could make a claim to have come out better and move Blanks in with Dykstera coming along as a back up plan.
May 28th, 2009 at 2:38 am (#)
I agree with you 100% that the best idea for the Padres would be to trade Adrian, but I would also stop following the team.
Such is being a Padres fan.
December 17th, 2009 at 1:53 pm (#)
Huge assumption as well: You said that the aggregate WAR of the potential prospects will exceed that of Adrian “Help win more important games”. Even if you stretch out the years of total team control for the players, I wouldn’t know how you would quantify that. Adrian is an all star and prospects are well prospects so it seems really difficult to say that in my mind.
December 17th, 2009 at 2:14 pm (#)
Kevin-Take a look at Victor Wang’s research on prospect expected value.
December 18th, 2009 at 11:55 pm (#)
I did and he loved the Johan Santana trade. I’m not saying he is wrong but there in lies the problem of trying to evaluate prospects. Again I dont have a problem trading Adrian for one or two blue chip prospects like the Marlins did with Josh Beckett. My problem is the ethos in the Padreland that we have to trade our quality players. You are saying that cost isn’t a factor. Well I would like to see a model that shows a proposed trade giving the padres enough excess production value to cover the loss in his value as a player and his value to the casual fan and the hispanic community in terms of business marketability. If that happens great but it seems really hard to do and it certainly should not be forced. Do you think every player with high excess production should be traded from a non contending team? Grienke?