All posts written by Myron Logan

Friday links: Ownership transition delayed

January 13, 2012 in links, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

The San Diego Padres ownership transition from John Moores to Jeff Moorad’s group was delayed on Thursday, when owners failed to vote on its approval. It appears that there are some financial concerns surrounding the groups’ ability to take over the Padres.

Important to note, the owners didn’t vote down Moorad’s group; they simply didn’t vote at all. Apparently the vote will take place after more information is revealed. It could be done by conference call, according to Bud Selig. A 75 percent vote is needed for approval (Dex has all the details).

It’s just business as usual for the Padres this offseason. Upheaval in the front office, big trades involving Mat Latos and Anthony Rizzo, acquiring Carlos Quentin, now complications regarding the sale of the club. It’s been a strange few months, to say the least.

Still, the ownership transition wasn’t expected to be completed for a few more years, so it’s well ahead of schedule – thanks to urging by John Moores. It’s obviously hard to tell the significance of this delay. It could be a minor snag or the beginning of the end for the Moorad-led group. We’ll have to wait and see.

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Corey Brock discusses the Padres offseason, including the Anthony Rizzo trade and Jesus Guzman’s role on the 2012 club.

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At Friarhood, Peter Friberg analyzes shortstop prospect Beamer Weems. In 990 minor league plate appearances, Weems has hit .235/.362/.354. Last season at Double-A San Antonio, Weems finally showed some pop, hitting nine homers (and 27 extra-base hits) in 309 PAs. He had hit just three home runs prior to his 2012 campaign.

Weems’ plate discipline and power surge make him an interesting prospect. Peter notes Weems’ very solid defensive reputation, and that’s where his value probably lies. If he can become a plus defender at shortstop in the bigs, he doesn’t have to do all that much with the bat.

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Melvin takes a look at the big trades of the offseason and notes that the difference between Anthony Rizzo and Yonder Alonso may end up deciding just how good (or bad) these moves were.

I still think the two first baseman are close in overall value, but obviously the Byrnes’ regime isn’t as high on Rizzo. Jed Hoyer certainly feels differently. If anything, dealing Latos for Alonso (and company) and then flipping Rizzo off to Hoyer in Chicago shows that Byrnes, while seemingly similar to Hoyer in background, has entirely different plans for the future of the Padres organization than the former general manager did.

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Avenging Jack Murphy has some deep philosophical thought on plungers and relates that to the Padres offseason. In all seriousness, I share a numbers of his concerns about the strange proceedings post-Hoyer. 

The new digs

January 11, 2012 in blogging, Myron Logan with 19 Comments

We’ve recently installed a new theme here at Friar Forecast, as you may have noticed.

It’s a work in progress, for now, as it’s highly customizable once I dig into the code. I am far from a Web designer, so the customization process can be a bit … challenging, to say the least.

You can see some of the new features already, though. The Twitter and Feedburner icons are located on the right side of the navigation bar, easily visible but not too intrusive.

For now, you can see the author of the post by looking at the categories (on the top) or at the end of the post (where you can click through and view all of that authors posts). At some point, I would like there to be a byline at the top of each post, but we’ll have to figure that out.

My main concern is usability, and I hope the installation of this new theme will enhance your experience here at Friar Forecast. I’m particularly hopeful you notice an increase in the speed of the site, as that is one critical element to usability. I’m a bit obsessive about Website speed; I can’t stand overly slow sites.

There are likely a number of things that will be changing over the coming days/weeks, but what you currently see is the basis for the new look of the site.

I hope you like it, but please let me know what’s working and what isn’t. What needs to be added/deleted? Any comments on the new look and the overall usability of the site are welcome (encouraged!), either here or via email.

Thanks,
Myron

Friar Forecast contributors on Anthony Rizzo deal

January 7, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, trades with 3 Comments

My take on the Anthony Rizzo/Andrew Cashner swap is decidedly rotten. I figured it’d be interesting to gather the opinions of the rest of Friar Forecast on the deal. Chris Kelly will have his analysis as part of his Monday article, but here’s what Daniel, Scott, and Ben thought about the trade.

Daniel Gettinger

In swapping Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates for Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na, the San Diego Padres made a trade that is difficult to defend.

To see why, let’s make a few assumptions, that would seemingly tilt the deal in the Padres favor:

1) Anthony Rizzo profiles similarly to Adam LaRoche, a solid but highly replaceable first baseman.

* As Myron already outlined, although Rizzo is not a perfect prospect, he is relatively young, has had great success in the minor leagues, and is still highly rated by scouting gurus such as John Sickels. Prior to his 2011 campaign, in which he hit .331/.404/.652 in AAA, Geoff Young suggested Adam LaRoche as a good comp. for Rizzo. Although Rizzo struggled in his small sample of major league at-bats, his AAA performance suggests, in expectation, he still profiles to be at least as good as Adam LaRoche.

2) Andrew Cashner will quickly develop into a hard-throwing top flight reliever such as a Jonathan Broxton.

* Upon first hearing about the trade, my initial thought was, “somebody in the Padres organization clearly thinks Cashner can be a number two starter,” but reports since the trade suggest the Padres view Cashner as a reliever, with only the possibility of him becoming a starter in the future. Therefore, lets say the best case scenario is for Cashner to pitch top-notch ball out of the bullpen immediately, and do so for a number of years.

3) Zach Cates is no better a prospect than Kyung-Min Na.

* There are few (if any) favorable scouting reports on Na, while Cates seems to have some potential. For the sake of argument, lets say that Na and Cates are equivalent prospects.

Operating under these assumptions, and the fact that teams have six years of control until a player reaches free agency, the Padres, at best traded the first six years of Adam LaRoche’s career for years 2-6 of Jonathan Broxton’s career (Cashner already has over one year of service time).

Below is a table outlining the WAR (according to Fangraphs) accumulated by LaRoche (2004-2009) and Broxton (2006-2011) in their first 6 years.

LaRoche Broxton
Year 1 0.9 N/A
Year 2 -1.2 2.0
Year 3 2.5 2.2
Year 4 2.3 2.8
Year 5 1.5 1.1
Year 6 2.4 -0.3
TOTAL 8.4 7.8

With the exception of 2011, Broxton was about as good as a reliever can be in his 2-6 years, and he was still worth less in terms of WAR than Adam LaRoche in his first six years.

My assumptions were very favorable for the Padres in that they limited Rizzo’s upside to Adam LaRoche, assumed Andrew Cashner will be as good of a reliever as Jonathan Broxton, and ignored that Cates is likely a better prospect than Na. Even with these assumptions in place, trading Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner appears to be at best an even deal.

Unless the Padres (and the rest of major league baseball) believe Anthony Rizzo’s upside is that of Adam LaRoche, and Rizzo comes with considerable downside risk as well, the Padres could have received greater value by holding out for a different deal.

Scott Tanderup (also posted on Scott’s blog)

A lot of initial fan backlash on this trade. I don’t have a huge problem with this trade and may actually like it. It is clear from the Latos and now Rizzo trade that a top middle infield prospect that is close to ML ready is just not available. There is such a huge drop in talent from guys like Machado and Profar to the next level of middle infield prospect. Some fans wanted Wade Davis from the Rays. Why? I wouldn’t put him ahead of Anthony Bass on the depth chart.

The biggest argument against this trade is from a “value” standpoint. Clearly, the Cubs valued Cashner very highly or Cates would not have been added. Many fans feel Rizzo has far more “value” than Cashner.

What I like about this trade is that the Padres get a reliever that should be very effective at Petco in 2012 and still control him for several more years as they work to figure out what Cashner’s real future is. Cashner has solid stuff and a plus-plus fastball. His control has been improving each year and now he has a chance to work with Black and Balsley. The Padres essentially are getting a solid late inning relief guy with elite starter upside. The one thing the Padres deep stable of pitching prospects has lacked is an “elite” upside pitcher that is ML ready or close to ML ready. You could make an argument that Cashner has the best “stuff” of any Padres player or prospect. This represents the beginning of the next “phase” in the Padres future… acquiring and drafting “elite” upside players. I think you will see the trend continue in the 2012 draft. The days of drafting safe college players are behind the Padres.

Byrnes, in my opinion, has done an excellent job of continuing the movement for the future while simultaneously putting together a team in 2012 that may surprise. Cashner fits both the “win now” and “build for the future” scenarios.

I realize I may be in the minority, but they had the depth to take the gamble.

Ben Davey

I am not a big fan of the trade. Both Rizzo and Cashner have question marks. However, if both pan out, Rizzo’s value as an all-star first basemen far outweigh that of a  closer. Would you trade Ryan Howard for Jonathon Broxton? Didn’t think so.

Padres acquire Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo

January 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 7 Comments

If we learned anything from Jed Hoyer’s stay in San Diego, trading with him probably isn’t the best idea. With the likes of Theo Epstein and Jason McLeod as reinforcements, it doesn’t help matters.

On Friday, Josh Byrnes and the San Diego Padres traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right hander Zach Cates to Hoyer and the Cubs for right-handed reliever Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

When the Padres acquired first basemen Yonder Alonso as part of the Mat Latos trade, Anthony Rizzo was immediately expendable. While there’s certainly debate about who will be better, Alonso or Rizzo, it was obvious that the current regime liked Alonso’s bat as a better long-term fit. He’s more polished at this point and has had major league success, and he may be better suited for Petco.

Rizzo struggled mightily in 153 plate appearances with the Padres last season, hitting .141/.281/.242. He struck out in 30 percent of his PAs. Still, 150 major league PAs do not negate over 1,500 in the minors. Further, Rizzo had one of his finest overall years in 2011, hitting .331/.404/.652 in Triple-A Tucson. He pounded 61 extra-base hits in 93 games.

Despite the major league hiccup, Rizzo was still a consensus top 10 prospect in the Padres system this offseason. In fact, he was recently rated as the number one prospect in a highly-regarded system by Baseball America and John Sickels.

Some are still concerned with how Rizzo’s offensive game will transfer to the big leagues. As Kevin Goldstein notes, he’s struggled against lefties, he has a hitch in his swing, and he tends to get pull happy. Further, left-handed pull power probably isn’t the best fit for Petco Park. Though that’s not a reason to dismiss a prospect, it may have helped vault the more well-rounded Alonso ahead of Rizzo on the organizational depth chart.

Warts and all, Rizzo will have a chance to excel for the rebuilding Cubs, and he’ll get full support from a front office who believes in him. Jed Hoyer has now acquired him twice, once with the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez and now with the Cubbies. Theo dealt him to the Padres, but he received Adrian Gonzalez in return, so we can’t blame him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rizzo turn into a solid everyday starter at some point in 2012.

The Padres also gave up right-handed starter Zach Cates. Cates, drafted under Hoyer and McLeod in the third round of the 2010 amateur draft, pitched 118 innings at Single-A Fort Wayne last season. He posted a 4.73 ERA and walked four per nine, but he struck out an encouraging 22 percent. He also surrendered only four home runs.

The former catcher isn’t highly-rated in the Padres current system, but he’s a little more than just throw-in. Drafted in the third round, reportedly with solid mechanics and stuff (with less wear and tear than most pitchers), and a solid debut campaign make him an intriguing lower level prospect.

The main piece acquired by San Diego is reliever Andrew Cashner. This offseason, Kevin Goldstein rated Cashner fourth on the Cubs under-25 top ten list, ahead of all but two of their current top ten prospects (and Starlin Castro). He said:

Cashner has looked good stuff-wise in his return from injuries, but he’s likely bullpen-only at this point, and his command is far from all the way back.

The Twitter-verse has already confirmed that Cashner will be used in the pen next season, with a chance to develop into a starter (so says Byrnes). It sounds like he’s better off in the bullpen, where he can reportedly touch 100 on the radar gun.

Cashner threw a total of 15 and a third innings in 2011, between the Cubs and the minor leagues, thanks to shoulder issues all season long. In 2010, he pitched 54 and a third innings for the Cubs out of the pen, striking out 8.3 and walking five per nine. His HR/9 was 1.3.

Drafted four times, Cashner finally signed with the Cubs after being selected 18th overall in the 2008 amateur draft. He spent his first three years in the minor leagues working primarily out of the rotation, until he was called up in 2010. He had mixed results as a starter.

In 2009, he pitched 100 and a third innings in High-A and Double-A to a 2.60 ERA, but he K’ed only 18 percent. He did only gave up one homer. His strikeout rate jumped to 27 percent in 2010 in 59 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Again, he allowed just one homer.

In 182 minor league innings, Cashner allowed an off-the-charts good three home runs. He struck out two batters for every walk, and posted a 2.82 ERA. Cashner was well-regarded in the minors: Kevin Goldstein rated him as the fifth best Cubs prospect in 2010 and he cracked Baseball America’s top 100 that same year.

Injury concerns plus, as Goldstein notes, a high-effort delivery and low minor league pitch counts as a starter lead many to believe he’ll end up in the pen, which is where he’s been with the Cubs and where he’ll start as the Padres. The chance that he’ll develop into a starter is always there, but for now we have to view him as a reliever.

Big velocity with the fastball and a solid slider, combined with solid groundball and home run rates, will give Cashner a chance to be devastating in the back of the Padres pen. Petco will help the home run issues he had in the majors in 2010. Cashner is arbitration eligible in 2013 and will reach free agency in 2017, according to Cot’s Contracts (he’s a super-two). edit: there are conflicting reports as to Cahsner’s super-two status.

The Padres also acquired center fielder Kyung-Min Na. The 20-year-old was excellent in Rookie Ball in 2011, hitting .360/.453/.450 in 119 plate appearances. He quickly advanced to Low-A ball where he hit .171/.276/.184 in 88 PAs. In Single-A he rebounded some, hitting .258/.333/.303 in 100 PAs.

That short stint in Rookie Ball in the lone bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming early track record. Na has recorded just 16 extra base hits in 519 minor league plate appearances. He’s still young and I suppose offers some upside, but he has a lot to prove before one can think of him as a legit prospect.

If the Padres were a competitive team with a hole in the back of the pen, this deal would be understandable, if not favorable. They aren’t expected to compete, however, and they’ve been able to pick up solid relievers off the scrap heap for years now, thanks to good scouting/coaching and generous Petco Park.

Rizzo was expendable, but there was really no rush to trade the 22-year-old. If he performed well in Triple-A again, surely a contending team in need of some pop would come along and offer a package better than Cashner/Na. Let’s not forget the Padres had to include Cates, who probably has a better long-term outlook at this point than Na.

This move may help the Padres in 2012, but it won’t help them much long-term. A late-inning reliever, even one as potentially dominant as Cashner, isn’t what they should be shopping for right now, especially if it involves dealing away an everyday player as potentially valuable as Rizzo.

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Padres deal Anthony Rizzo to Cubs

January 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with Comments Off

Not coming as a huge surprise with the recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso, the San Diego Padres have traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right-handed pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs for right hander Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

While the Padres perhaps lost some leverage when acquiring Alonso, this appears to be a surprising small haul for a prospect of Rizzo’s potential. We’ll have more later on, giving the trade some time to digest. Feel free to discuss here.

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