Now that the thrill of being the 2011 Cal League champs has settled, coaching moves have been made, and the cold winter months begin to fade into the unbearably hot summer weather, it is time to start talking about the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm.  The 2011 version of the Storm was one expected to be led by hard throwing right hander Matt Lollis.  Unfortunately, after 19 mostly unsuccessful starts he was moved to the pen and ended with an ERA north of five.  In fact of the seven starters who had multiple starts for the Storm, five of them ended with an ERA of over five.

The 2012 version should see considerable improvements such as Madfriars #1 prospect Keyvius Sampson.  In addition, the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm will benefit from increased depth at the upper levels, as a few pitchers that might normally be pushed to Double-A will be given another season in High-A to improve upon mechanics and hopefully put up better numbers.  So without further ado here goes the 2012 projected Storm rotation:

1)      Keyvius Sampson (12-3 2.90 ERA in Fort Wayne)
As great as it is for the Padres to say this… Sampson’s 12-3 record with a 2.90 ERA doesn’t show just how dominating he was for the TinCaps in 2011.  In fear of throwing too many innings, Sampson was limited to five innings in most of his second half starts.  With the 2010 injury in the past and 118 innings already under his belt, Sampson will be allowed to — finally — go deeper into games.  Sampson has been knocked on a few prospect sheets because scouts view his mechanics as “ugly,” and with an injury history, many wonder if he will be able to remain healthy enough to make it to the show and remain a starter.  Despite the criticism, Sampson was healthy all of 2011, and looks to show a few of the “experts” just how dominating he can be.  IF Sampson can stay healthy look for him to put up BIG numbers.

2)      Matt Jackson (5-1, 1.95 ERA in Fort Wayne)
Jackson was injured for a large part of the second half for the TinCaps, but that didn’t stop him from being named a MWL All Star.  Jackson doesn’t have anything ++ like Sampson, but he has four quality pitches each with good movement and good control.  The benefit for Jackson is that he is comfortable throwing any pitch at anytime in the count.  The biggest question for Jackson will be can he stay healthy, and if he does how many innings will the Elsinore staff let him throw (only threw 64.2 in 2011).

3)      Matt Branham (4-3, 4.98 ERA in Fort Wayne)
In 2010 Branham was in a Eugene rotation with top prospects Sampson, Portillo, and former high prospect Dexter Carter.  After the season was said and done, Branham was the pitcher of the year for Eugene going 6-3, 2.97 ERA.  Branham struggled a bit out of the gate in Fort Wayne and then got hurt.  He came back in August to Eugene where he got in 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.  Branham might have been out of luck, but the trade of Zach Cates opened up a spot for the big 6’5” right hander.  He might still start the season in the pen or in Elsinore, but if healthy I think he has the potential and skill to be a mid-rotation pitcher.

4)      Mark Hardy (11-10 2.78 ERA in Fort Wayne)
The Canadian lefty was the swing guy for the TinCaps last year.  If a start was needed he was the guy, if help in the pen was needed he could go one inning or five.  Hardy ended up throwing the most innings, and throwing the only complete game of the year  Like Jackson, Hardy doesn’t have any ++ pitches, but has multiple solid pitches and great control.  A control lefty with a solid repertoire can go along way in the minors.

5)      Andrew Werner (MWL/CL 7-8, 3.23 ERA combined)
This fifth spot could go to any number of players.  Werner probably isn’t the most likely to be here, but my guess is that he will end up here.  Even with Nick Schmidt, Pedro Hernandez, Zach Cates, and Simon Castro all traded, the Padres will still have a couple of pitchers staying in San Antonio, which means there is a good chance at least one of Sullivan, Watt, Lollis, De Paula, Werner, or Fetter will be staying in Elsinore.  Originally I thought it would go to Chris Fetter who has big potential with his frame and fastball, but was injured for most of 2011.  Unfortunately with Fetter already 26 years old, there is a good chance he either gets pushed to San Antonio (probably in the pen) or just released.  SO… staying in LE is Andrew Werner who put up a good season but similar to Watt, is mainly organizational depth more than anything else.

Bullpen

Closer: Kevin Quackenbush (2-1, 0.84 ERA, 18-20 SV, 42 IP, 71 K)
 This was easy.  Quackenbush exploded out of nowhere to seize the closer role in both Eugene and Fort Wayne.   The 23-year-old has  the big game, back-of-the-pen mentality that could get him to San Diego in 2013, possibly even September of this year.  BAA of .172, 71 K/12 BB.  It’s hard not to love him.

8^th inning: Adam Dominick (5-6, 3.59 ERA, 10 SV, 72 IP, 13 BB, 83 K)
Dominick had some problems early and eventually lost the closer’s role to Quackenbush.  Dominick has the raw stuff to be solid in the back of the pen, but struggled with allowing runners on base in close games.  Call it a lack of a closer’s mentality, but before Quack came to Fort Wayne it seemed like every save opportunity the collar got tighter and tighter.  After Quack took over as closer, though, Dominick settled down into his eighth inning role.  Dominick allowed runs in only one of his final nine appearance (12 IP, 17 K).

7^th inning: Chris Franklin (2-2, 2.97 ERA 7 SV, 15 H in Fort Wayne)
Franklin might not have started the year as the back of the pen guy, but his post ASB numbers of 2-1, 2.33 ERA with a 2:1 GB/FB were solid.  Franklin did have some trouble early on with the home run ball, but didn’t allow a home run the entire second half of the year.  In the hot Cal League air Franklin could get in trouble if he leaves the ball up, but if the second half of the year was any indication of what’s to come he will make the game a six inning affair for the Storm.

Next up: the 2012 Texas League Champs San Antonio Missions, who should see quite a few returning faces and the additions of a few key players all ready to make the Missions go back-to-back.

Last year the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm won the Cal League Championship, so they will look to build on that momentum in 2012.  Of course they will do so with nearly a completely different roster, but that is just some of the fun of following minor league baseball.

The Storm will have at least two first round picks in their lineup, which should boost the offense.  The Storm’s offense was hurt last year after promotions of Jedd Gyorko and Jason Hagerty, and an injury to Edinson Rincon.  The weakness of the offense, though, was the lack of hitting from the outfielders.  Fuentes (.711 OPS), Meeley (.707 OPS), Olabisi (.658 OPS), and Payne (.245 BA, .819 OPS) all struggled in the very hitter-friendly Cal League.  This year should be different with Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano, first round pick Donavan Tate, and Rico Noel all patrolling the outfield.  So without further ado, here we go…

1)      Rico Noel CF/DH .253/.345/.347 50 SB, 4 CS
Noel struggled to find consistency with the bat last year.  However, Noel provides speed at the top of the order on a team that will challenge for the lead in SB.  Between Fort Wayne and Elsinore last year, Noel stole a combined 62 bases with only 5 CS.  Unfortunately in a deep lineup, with plenty of outfield, Noel will have to hit closer to .300 if he wants to remain hitting at the top of the order.  No matter how bad his offense is, Noel’s defense in center field will allow him to get ample playing time.

2)      Cory Spangenberg 2B .316/.419/.418 25 SB, 8 CS
Spangenberg was mister everything in Eugene, reaching base safely in all 25 of his games.  More impressive was that Cory had nearly a 2:1 BB:K ratio — that’s right nearly 2x as many BB as K.  The tides changed in Fort Wayne as he struggled the first month to make solid contact.  He rebounded nicely hitting .360 over his last 30 G.  Cory has the tools to demolish Cal League pitching.  While we might see his power numbers increase slightly, they will still not be nearly that of a Chase Utley.  Still, look for Spangy to hit around .330 with 25 SB at the break and be promoted to Double-A San Antonio shortly there after.

3)      Rymer Liriano RF .319/.383/.499, 12 HR, 65 SB
We all know about Liriano by now, so I figured I would point out an interesting nugget of info on him.  Looking at Liriano’s triple slash line, and knowing he hit third in the TinCap’s lineup you would assume he would have more than 62 RBI in 116 G for the TinCaps.  Nope.  Liriano last year found himself more as a table setter than anything else.

Everyone is excited about Liriano’s five tool ability, and believe me I have been on the Liriano band wagon since I saw him in the AZL a few years ago, BUT despite his impressive line, and his Midwest MVP award, I will hold off on anointing him the Padres number one prospect.  The reason for that is Liriano (who is now 20) is still young and has a long way to go before we see him in San Diego.  Two years ago we were all hailing Simon Castro as the next great Padres pitcher throwing him into the same sentence as Peavy, and yet when Castro was recently traded this offseason no one made much of a fuss (ed. note: Myron did!).  I am a huge Liriano supporter but as many of us know there is about as good of a chance that Liriano will never make it past Double-AA as there is he becomes an everyday MLB player.  I sure hope he lives up to his potential and becomes the next Vlad, but I am cautious.

4)      Connor Powers 1B 338/.422/.538
While Liriano rightfully won the Midwest League MVP, it was a tough decision to even name Liriano the team MVP because of what Connor Powers did for the club.  Powers gave Liriano someone to protect him in the lineup, and was able to “clean up” the bases every time Liriano got on.  Despite playing in 40 fewer games than Liriano, Powers ended up only one double behind him (30 vs. 29).  Powers doesn’t have the raw power that Storm fans are used to seeing from their previous first basemen (Freiman and Decker), but Powers has the ability to hit for a higher average, and has enough power that he could still belt 20 home runs in the Cal League.

5)      Donavan Tate CF/LF/DH .288/.410/.411 39 G, 29 BB, 35 K, 19 SB
Tate could eventually be the leadoff hitter, but without another “power” type bat to hit behind Powers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tate start the year off hitting fifth.  We all know about Tate’s abilities and we all know about his shortcomings.  If he can ever get his head on straight he can battle with Liriano for Cal League MVP.  Of course that is a big IF.

6)      Jake Blackwood 3B .269/.319/.456 17 HR, 36 2B
***OR Everett Williams LF/DH*** Blackwood was a Midwest League all-star before his promotion to Lake Elsinore (when Gyorko was promoted to Double-A) and he didn’t light the world on fire in Elsinore.  Still, Blackwood will either be around in Elsinore or San Antonio depending on what the Padres do with Gyorko.  Rincon will not be the everyday third basemen in San Antonio, as his defense still hasn’t improved, and Blackwood could provide that other bat in SA.  If that happens look for Bisson to be the everyday 3B.  Williams will split time in the outfield and DH.  Williams has a lot of potential, but had an attitude problem early in his career (too good to practice).  Well not much in stats and a big injury later and we will see if Williams has matured.  Williams still has excellent speed, but has not developed the pop everyone thought he would.  The potential might still be there but he is far away from reaching it.

7)      Rocky Gale/Emanuel Quiles C .267/.310/.333 (Gale), .211/.241/.279 (Quiles)
Quiles got the bulk of the starts last year behind the plate as he is a plus defender (at least compared to the other catchers the TinCaps had last year).  However, as you can see, he couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag.  In 300 at bats, Quiles had 13 xbh, 11 BB, and 64 K.  Gale provides more in terms of offense and got the bulk of the starts down the stretch.  Gale is a singles hitter, who is mainly just organizational depth.  As much as the Padres don’t want to rush Hedges, if he is hitting at all in Fort Wayne, look for a midseason promotion.

8)      Chris Bisson 3B/DH/2B  .261/.345/.321
Bisson, as well as teammates Noel and Guinn, were taken fairly highly in Jed Hoyer’s first draft.  Most importantly, all three of them were billed as “Petco park type players.”  Well so far, they may be Petco park players but they were not Midwest League players.  Bisson improved over the second half of the year hitting .274/.358/.341, but for a light hitting 2B it wasn’t enough.  Bisson should improve a bit in Elsinore, but unless he starts hitting over .300 with 30 SB he will get passed up and/or released.

9)      BJ Guinn SS .245/.307/.307 34 SB, 104 K
Speaking of light hitting middle infielders.  Guinn was supposed to lead the team with a .300 BA, 50 SB, and 100 RS.  Well, he had 18 extra base hits all year, a .551 OPS through the first half of the year and committed 29 errors at short.  We knew Guinn wouldn’t hit for much power, but the low BA, high K, and low OBP numbers are concerning.  Guinn was one of the big reasons the TinCaps struggled so much in the first half last year.  He will be kept around as the Padres need shortstop’s, but this might be his last chance, especially if Peterson hits well in Fort Wayne.

Look out for… Tommy Medica.  Medica hit fairly well in Fort Wayne before getting injured.  When he came back the Padres didn’t want to risk him getting re-injured and out for the remainder of the year so they kept him at DH/1B.  He hit .302/.440/.504 in Lake Elsinore.  If Medica is going to make the majors it will be as a catcher (where he has enough hitting ability to be a top 20 prospect on most teams).  However with Grandal in Tucson, Hagerty will stay in San Antonio which means if Medica is going to catch everyday like the organization wants it will be in Elsinore.  Also don’t forget that San Antonio only has DH half the time, and they also have big Nate Freiman at 1B.  While I originally had Medica in San Antonio, and he still might end up there, do not be surprised if he is the everyday catcher in Lake Elsinore (especially since there is not much else there).

Final Thought: This has the potential to be every bit as lethal of a lineup as the Storm have had over the past two years.  The team has some serious speed in Noel, Tate, Spangenberg, Liriano, Guinn, and Bisson.  They also have plenty of hitters that should hit at or close to .300.  Look for the team to challenge the league leaders in runs per game.  With the aforementioned hitters they have the ability to go all the way in the Cal League, especially considering they will have a rotation anchored by Madfriars numbers prospect Keyvius Sampson.

Fort Wayne pitching staff 

For most of the 2011 season the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps relied almost solely on one hitter and one hitter only, Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano.  The offense was so desolate that they were Padre-esque.  The 2011 TinCaps scored two or fewer runs in 32 of their first 72 games.  Their fortune started changing in the second half when Connor Powers started paying immediate dividends.   The good news is that Powers and later Cory Spangenberg helped fuel the team to the playoffs, the bad news for the 2012 team is that Liriano, Spangenberg, Powers, and nearly everyone else from the 2011 squad will be in Lake Elsinore in 2012.

The 2012 squad will look for new blood to help them get back to the playoffs.  It will be a very young team filled with players who have the potential to be in the upper echelon of prospects.  So without further ado here is your 2012 team.

1)      Jace Peterson, shortstop:
Selected in the first round by the Padres and picked by Matt Eddy as his breakout player for the 2012 season, Peterson has the speed and ability that you want to see at the top of any order.  He had 39 SB (10 CS) in 73 G and could easily get over 50 in a full season.  Peterson is a slick fielder, which means for once, that the Padres don’t have to face an immediate question as to whether or not he will be moved to second base (see Galvez, Cumberland, E-Cab, etc…).  The question will be whether Jace can hit well enough to stay at the top of the order.  Hopefully we can see a better season out of Jace than we did out of Guinn last year (.245/.307/.307, 34 SB).

2)      Casey McElroy, second base:
McElroy was taken in the 11^th round and signed right at the deadline for above slot money.  McElroy play second base in high school but shortstop at Auburn.  With Jace at short he will undoubtedly return to second.  With Auburn, McElroy led the SEC in hits, and finished in the top 10 in nearly all offensive categories including batting average (.370), RBI (53), HR (9), and 2B (18).  He hit .301/.381/.466 in 19 games in Eugene.

3)      Luis Domoromo, left field:
Domoromo will be more than likely be returning to the TinCaps to begin the 2012 season.  For a 19-year-old in Fort Wayne, Luis had a pretty spectacular 2011 season hitting .283/.335/.405 with 9 HR and 68 RBI in 112 games.  The Venezuelan should only get stronger and better during the offseason.  If Domoromo can work on his eye, as he continues to build muscle, he very well could be a MWL All-Star.

4)      Lee Orr, designated hitter:
Orr led the Ems in HR (8) and was one of the leaders in the NWL.  Orr has some of the best power on the team and can be a 20-20 guy in the MWL.  The question will be whether or not he can hit enough in the MWL.  Orr hit only .219 with 88 K in 62 G.

5)      Jose Dore, right field:
Dore signed at the deadline in 2010, hit .375 in the Arizona League, and the came to Fort Wayne last year after the Tate/Williams collision.  After hitting well initially, Dore struggled to make solid contact.  After struggling he was demoted to Eugene where he once again struggled making solid contact.  Dore has a big arm, is a plus fielder, great power, and has yet to turn 20.  Dore has the makings of a top prospect but will need to cut down on his strikeouts as he had 111 Ks in 98 combined games between Eugene and Lake Elsinore.

6)      Duanel Jones, third base:
Another young prospect with a lot of potential.  Jones, as many know, was given a huge bonus as a 16-year-old, only to have it taken away when he tested positive for an illegal substance.  Well that voided contract was the opportunity the Padres needed to swoop in.  While he struggled at times in Peoria and Eugene, he did show great power (8 HR in 37 AZL games), and has the chance to develop into a strong middle of the order hitter.  But for right now as a 19-year-old, batting a little lower in the order should relieve some of the pressure.

7)      Austin Hedges, catcher:
Coming into the draft we kept on hearing: “Hedges is already an MLB quality backstop on defense, but the offense will be the question.”  However, from interviewing Randy Smith among others, and looking at his stats, he has been a pleasant surprise on offense.  Hedges defense will be top notch, but if he can hit even .250/.320/.380, he will continue to jump up the prospect charts.

8 )      Zach Kometani, first base:
He might be the default first basemen and split time with quite a few others, but for the time being he is the best choice at first.  The USD product has pretty good power (second on the Ems in both HR (4) and 2B (13)), but does not have a great eye at the plate, and like way too many first basemen has a longer than normal swing that will affect his batting average.  The best case is a Cody Decker type player, but more than likely will be lucky make it to Double-A.

9)      Kyung-Min Na, center field:
Acquired in the Anthony Rizzo trade, Na provides speed and defense for the TinCaps.  Na is the type of player that when he learns how to run the bases has the speed to be a 50+ SB player.  The question is, will he hit enough?  Na hit .171/.276/.184 in 25 MWL games last year.  A year older and the now 20-year-old should hopefully provide that spark at the bottom of the lineup.  If he can hit like the Padres hope (as they essentially gave up Cates for him), he can provide a dynamic one-two punch with Peterson, but for right now I see him batting at the bottom of the order until he can prove he can hit.  (See what they did with Guinn towards the end of last year).

Editor’s note: Ben is back with his annual preview of the San Diego Padres minor league affiliates. We’re always glad to read more of his work.

Last year the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps had some dominant pitching, led by top prospect Keyvius Sampson.  This year should be no different.  The interesting thing about the Fort Wayne rotation is that it shows off the two different types of top drafted pitchers.  Do you go for the polished college pitcher with a high floor and low ceiling (Andriese, Hebner, and Pope), or do you go after the high schooler with tremendous, but raw, ability (Portillo, Barbato, Ross, Kelly)?

The other question is who is going to fill the giant void left by Kevin Quackenbush?  The ace closer will be pitching up I-15, leaving Fort Wayne searching for their closer de jour.  Eugene had eight different pitchers close out at least one game, and a majority of the saves came over the last few weeks of the year showing that there was not an odds on favorite for closer in Fort Wayne.   Conundrum or not the college arms taken in the 2011 draft should provide a solid bullpen for the Tin Caps, something the 2010 team was sorely missing.

Starting Rotation:

Matt Andriese: 3^rd round draft pick from the 2011 draft, and the first college pitcher taken by the Padres.  Andriese signed immediately and dominated from the beginning in Eugene.  He went 5-1, with a 1.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and averaged over a K/IP.  Andriese has good size and mechanics that should enable him to stay with the TinCaps.  He doesn’t have tremendous stuff as his fastball tops out around 93-94, but he has good movement and a solid slider that he uses as his strikeout pitch.  He needs to improve on his slider and change if he wants to succeed at the upper levels but he has a high floor which should lead him to dominate at Fort Wayne.

Cody Hebner: Hebner doesn’t have the size that most hope for, but he gets every bit out of his 5’11” frame and is a true student of the game.  Hebner is the first in the video room and the last to leave.  Hebner uses his FB as his bread and butter pitch.  He doesn’t nibble but sometimes his pitches will move be too much and lead to walks.  This led to the 15 walks in 37.2 IP.   He has a good 12-6 curve, with late action, that can be close to 20 mph slower than his FB.  At this point he doesn’t have a true change-up or slider, but both have already improved since joining the Padres.  Hebner is another pitcher with a high floor.  His ceiling is as a back of the rotation starter, but that shouldn’t stop him from excelling in Fort Wayne.

Adys Portillo:  Not much needs to be said about Portillo.  Tremendous stuff, but the results haven’t followed yet.  Another year in Fort Wayne and hopefully this time yields better results for Portillo.  He has received rave reviews during instructs, and as he continues to hit 98 on the gun, should finally be able to dominate.

John Barbato: Speaking of pitchers with high upside…  Barbato has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the system not named Portillo or Sampson.  Barbato has a plus fastball and slider, both of which have the ability to be absolutely filthy.  Like most young pitchers his change is a work in progress, but as he develops it also has the change to really make him an ace pitcher.  While everyone loves movement, Barbato suffered this past season from too much movement.  He often struggled finding home plate with his fastball which led to 31 BB in just 57 IP.  Ace potential but needs to locate his pitches better.

Joe Ross: 1^st round selection by the Padres in the past draft.  Ross was given a huge bonus to not attend UCLA so I would guess he jumps Eugene in favor or Fort Wayne.  For being a pitcher a few months removed from high school, Ross has already displayed two plus MLB pitches in his fastball and curve.  He can already hit 95 on the gun which should go up a few mph as he gains more muscle.  Ross could find himself on the fast track to San Diego, but he needs to gain experience.  Ross has a very high ceiling, but like most high school draftees also has a very low floor.

Mark Pope: Pope might end up in the pen as the #5 starter, but chances are he gets a chance to start at least to begin the year.  Pope is not afraid and pounds the zone with his fastball (around 90).  He has a solid slider and curve and is not afraid to throw any pitch in any count.  Similar to Hebner and Andriese, Pope has a high floor with a low ceiling.  He will probably wind up in the pen, but he is a veteran enough pitcher (and was given over slot money) that he should do well in Fort Wayne.

Other Candidates:  Michael Kelly could crack the starting rotation, but after missing the entire 2010 season by not signing until the deadline, Kelly needs time working on his delivery.  Kelly might have better “stuff” then Ross or Barbato but his delivery has been inconsistent and he needs to get his delivery ironed out before facing pro hitters.  Other candidates include James Needy, Juan Herrera, Colin Rea, Chris Wilkes, and William Scott.

Bullpen:

With Quackenbush more than likely ending up in Lake Elsinore, there is not a clear cut favorite for who will be the closer in Fort Wayne.  When Quack was promoted to Fort Wayne last year Eugene had seven different people record a save.  No one really showed the dominance to become the everyday closer.  With all that being said the favorite might be Rafael Arias if he can come back from surgery and show off his mid 90’s fastball.   Other candidates include Chris Wilkes (5-1, 3.28 ERA, 35.2 IP, 46K/18 BB), Matt Stites (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 32.2 IP, 36 K/8 BB), or Greg Gonzalez (4-1, 3.99 ERA, 29.1 IP, 33 K/12 BB).  James Jones was the closer in Peoria before a late season call up to Eugene.

Whenever prognosticators “look to the future” of what a MLB teams lineup will look like in 1-2 years they look for the top prospects throughout the farm system and inter mix them with present MLB outfielders.  In the case of the Padres those top prospects are AA outfielders Jaff Decker and Blake Tekotte.  Both players have outstanding hitting and fielding abilities, despite reports by ill informed journalists who say the contrary.  However, standing in between Decker/Tekotte and the big leagues are AAA outfielders Aaron Cunningham, Cedric Hunter, and Luis Durango.  While none of these hitters are slouches themselves, with so much hype on Decker/Tekotte and the likes of Maybin, Venable, Dino, and Ludwick in SD, the question becomes will any of our AAA outfielders ever get a chance to prove they can succeed in San Diego?

Of course of the above names, the name that most people recognize is Aaron (Richie) Cunningham.  Cunningham hit .288/.331/.417 while playing excellent D in San Diego.  Mark Grant and Dick Enberg were recently talking about a diving catch that Cunningham made last year in LF, as one of the best defensive plays last year.  At only 25 (just turned 25 in April), Cunningham is entering his prime and ready to do damage in San Diego.  The problem with Cunningham, however, is that he doesn’t do anything special offensively outside of hit for a pretty high average.  He doesn’t hit for much power(8 last year, 12 the year before), doesn’t steal a lot of bases (0 this year, 3 last year, 11 in 09’), and his BB/K ratio leaves something to be desired.  Cunningham has hit for a bit more power this year, and has improved his BB% to 13.5% (up from 8.0% last year), and lowered his K% 17.4% (23.8% last year).  While Cunningham will never hit for power to make him a legit corner OF, considering Venable is hitting .236, and Ludwick is hitting .208, a player with excellent defense who can hit close to .300 in the majors might deserve at least the same playing time he got last year in San Diego.

Cedric Hunter was at one time the #1 prospect in the Padres system.  The idea was excellent CF, great approach at the plate, and would develop power.  However, the power has never really developed, and when a singles hitter struggles he drops down the rankings fast.  After leading all of minor league baseball in hits as a 20 year old in Lake Elsinore just 3 years ago Hunter is now trying to prove he is worth another shot at the majors.  Watching Hunter in the OF reminded me a lot of watching Andrew Jones just float to the ball.  However, unlike Jones, Hunter’s offense leaves a lot to be desired.  While he has speed he has never translated it into SB.  The 17 SB he stole in 52 G as an 18 year old in Arizona (AZL MVP) remains the most in his career despite spending the last 5 years in full season ball.  Hunter does have 6 SB so far this year in 30 G.  Hunter has never had much power but is also 23 in AAA.  While some think he still has a chance to develop power, those people are getting few and far between.  The greatest thing about Hunter is that he does not strike out.  Hunter struck out just 8.1% last year, and is at 7.9% this year.  Unfortunately, he also doesn’t walk much.  The value in Hunter really depends on him being able to hit over .300, with his great K numbers, and enough power/SB to keep pitchers on their toes.  Either way, at least now, he doesn’t profile or deserve much in the majors.  Another year or two of improving numbers in AAA, and he might (again only 23), but by that time his MLB callup will probably be with another organization.

No one has more speed on the basepaths than Luis Durango.  Even better is that Durango is an excellent bunter and keeps the ball on the ground and an astounding rate.  Durango has stolen 40+ bases each of the last 2 years including 7 of 8 in San Diego.  However, it became a joke last year when Luis Durango would get his first extra base hit.  He had 7 xbh in over 400 AB last year, and hasn’t hit a HR since May of 2008 in Fort Wayne.  Speaking of power it was also reported that Durango had an OF arm that made Juan Pierre throw like Willie Mays.  Durango has been working on building muscle each of the last 2 off seasons and reports are that he is stronger and able to at least keep runners honest in the OF and fielders not playing him like an 8 year old girl in over the line.  Durango really needed a strong 2011 to show that he belongs at least as a 4^th OF in the majors.  So far it hasn’t happened L In 35 G Durango is hitting a career low of .257/.342/.305 with his worst SB ratio (4 in 8 attempts) in his career.  Despite his best efforts Durango will never evolve into an MLB starter, however he does have tremendous value in his speed.  With Durango’s speed, his ability to get down a bunt, and steal a base, he would be an ideal 4^th/5^th OF on an AL team.  Think Boston with Doc Roberts.  However, San Diego is not an AL team and has plenty of 4^th/5^th OF types already with the above 2, Denorfria, and Eric Patterson.  If Durango is going to make the majors and stick there he will need to increase his SB% which has always been one of his crutches.  Even more unfortunate is that Durango is already being challenged for playing time with Hunter, Clark, and Cunningham in the OF and will find it even harder when Baxter comes back.  Combine that with the likelihood of seeing at least 1 OF from AA being called up at the ASB and Durango’s time is dwindling.

All 3 players have the “potential” to be a solid contributor at the MLB level.  However, all 3 also have the drawbacks that make them overshadowed by the players in SD and those in AA.  With all 3 players on the 40 man roster,  they might be crossing their fingers for an injury to get a chance one last time in San Diego to prove that they belong.  Of course of the 3 which one will be chosen?  Hunter made the opening day roster with Patterson hurt, but that was partially attributed to Bud Black saying they wanted to let Cunningham start everyday in RF.  Cunningham has put up the best numbers in AAA but none have been spectacular.  Will any of them get the call before someone is DFA to make room for a AA  OF or Anthony Rizzo?