The 2012 version should see considerable improvements such as Madfriars #1 prospect Keyvius Sampson.  In addition, the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm will benefit from increased depth at the upper levels, as a few pitchers that might normally be pushed to Double-A will be given another season in High-A to improve upon mechanics and hopefully put up better numbers.  So without further ado here goes the 2012 projected Storm rotation:

1)      Keyvius Sampson (12-3 2.90 ERA in Fort Wayne)
As great as it is for the Padres to say this… Sampson’s 12-3 record with a 2.90 ERA doesn’t show just how dominating he was for the TinCaps in 2011.  In fear of throwing too many innings, Sampson was limited to five innings in most of his second half starts.  With the 2010 injury in the past and 118 innings already under his belt, Sampson will be allowed to — finally — go deeper into games.  Sampson has been knocked on a few prospect sheets because scouts view his mechanics as “ugly,” and with an injury history, many wonder if he will be able to remain healthy enough to make it to the show and remain a starter.  Despite the criticism, Sampson was healthy all of 2011, and looks to show a few of the “experts” just how dominating he can be.  IF Sampson can stay healthy look for him to put up BIG numbers.

2)      Matt Jackson (5-1, 1.95 ERA in Fort Wayne)
Jackson was injured for a large part of the second half for the TinCaps, but that didn’t stop him from being named a MWL All Star.  Jackson doesn’t have anything ++ like Sampson, but he has four quality pitches each with good movement and good control.  The benefit for Jackson is that he is comfortable throwing any pitch at anytime in the count.  The biggest question for Jackson will be can he stay healthy, and if he does how many innings will the Elsinore staff let him throw (only threw 64.2 in 2011).

3)      Matt Branham (4-3, 4.98 ERA in Fort Wayne)
In 2010 Branham was in a Eugene rotation with top prospects Sampson, Portillo, and former high prospect Dexter Carter.  After the season was said and done, Branham was the pitcher of the year for Eugene going 6-3, 2.97 ERA.  Branham struggled a bit out of the gate in Fort Wayne and then got hurt.  He came back in August to Eugene where he got in 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.  Branham might have been out of luck, but the trade of Zach Cates opened up a spot for the big 6’5” right hander.  He might still start the season in the pen or in Elsinore, but if healthy I think he has the potential and skill to be a mid-rotation pitcher.

4)      Mark Hardy (11-10 2.78 ERA in Fort Wayne)
The Canadian lefty was the swing guy for the TinCaps last year.  If a start was needed he was the guy, if help in the pen was needed he could go one inning or five.  Hardy ended up throwing the most innings, and throwing the only complete game of the year  Like Jackson, Hardy doesn’t have any ++ pitches, but has multiple solid pitches and great control.  A control lefty with a solid repertoire can go along way in the minors.

5)      Andrew Werner (MWL/CL 7-8, 3.23 ERA combined)
This fifth spot could go to any number of players.  Werner probably isn’t the most likely to be here, but my guess is that he will end up here.  Even with Nick Schmidt, Pedro Hernandez, Zach Cates, and Simon Castro all traded, the Padres will still have a couple of pitchers staying in San Antonio, which means there is a good chance at least one of Sullivan, Watt, Lollis, De Paula, Werner, or Fetter will be staying in Elsinore.  Originally I thought it would go to Chris Fetter who has big potential with his frame and fastball, but was injured for most of 2011.  Unfortunately with Fetter already 26 years old, there is a good chance he either gets pushed to San Antonio (probably in the pen) or just released.  SO… staying in LE is Andrew Werner who put up a good season but similar to Watt, is mainly organizational depth more than anything else.

Bullpen

Closer: Kevin Quackenbush (2-1, 0.84 ERA, 18-20 SV, 42 IP, 71 K)
 This was easy.  Quackenbush exploded out of nowhere to seize the closer role in both Eugene and Fort Wayne.   The 23-year-old has  the big game, back-of-the-pen mentality that could get him to San Diego in 2013, possibly even September of this year.  BAA of .172, 71 K/12 BB.  It’s hard not to love him.

8^th inning: Adam Dominick (5-6, 3.59 ERA, 10 SV, 72 IP, 13 BB, 83 K)
Dominick had some problems early and eventually lost the closer’s role to Quackenbush.  Dominick has the raw stuff to be solid in the back of the pen, but struggled with allowing runners on base in close games.  Call it a lack of a closer’s mentality, but before Quack came to Fort Wayne it seemed like every save opportunity the collar got tighter and tighter.  After Quack took over as closer, though, Dominick settled down into his eighth inning role.  Dominick allowed runs in only one of his final nine appearance (12 IP, 17 K).

7^th inning: Chris Franklin (2-2, 2.97 ERA 7 SV, 15 H in Fort Wayne)
Franklin might not have started the year as the back of the pen guy, but his post ASB numbers of 2-1, 2.33 ERA with a 2:1 GB/FB were solid.  Franklin did have some trouble early on with the home run ball, but didn’t allow a home run the entire second half of the year.  In the hot Cal League air Franklin could get in trouble if he leaves the ball up, but if the second half of the year was any indication of what’s to come he will make the game a six inning affair for the Storm.

Next up: the 2012 Texas League Champs San Antonio Missions, who should see quite a few returning faces and the additions of a few key players all ready to make the Missions go back-to-back.

The Storm will have at least two first round picks in their lineup, which should boost the offense.  The Storm’s offense was hurt last year after promotions of Jedd Gyorko and Jason Hagerty, and an injury to Edinson Rincon.  The weakness of the offense, though, was the lack of hitting from the outfielders.  Fuentes (.711 OPS), Meeley (.707 OPS), Olabisi (.658 OPS), and Payne (.245 BA, .819 OPS) all struggled in the very hitter-friendly Cal League.  This year should be different with Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano, first round pick Donavan Tate, and Rico Noel all patrolling the outfield.  So without further ado, here we go…

1)      Rico Noel CF/DH .253/.345/.347 50 SB, 4 CS
Noel struggled to find consistency with the bat last year.  However, Noel provides speed at the top of the order on a team that will challenge for the lead in SB.  Between Fort Wayne and Elsinore last year, Noel stole a combined 62 bases with only 5 CS.  Unfortunately in a deep lineup, with plenty of outfield, Noel will have to hit closer to .300 if he wants to remain hitting at the top of the order.  No matter how bad his offense is, Noel’s defense in center field will allow him to get ample playing time.

2)      Cory Spangenberg 2B .316/.419/.418 25 SB, 8 CS
Spangenberg was mister everything in Eugene, reaching base safely in all 25 of his games.  More impressive was that Cory had nearly a 2:1 BB:K ratio — that’s right nearly 2x as many BB as K.  The tides changed in Fort Wayne as he struggled the first month to make solid contact.  He rebounded nicely hitting .360 over his last 30 G.  Cory has the tools to demolish Cal League pitching.  While we might see his power numbers increase slightly, they will still not be nearly that of a Chase Utley.  Still, look for Spangy to hit around .330 with 25 SB at the break and be promoted to Double-A San Antonio shortly there after.

3)      Rymer Liriano RF .319/.383/.499, 12 HR, 65 SB
We all know about Liriano by now, so I figured I would point out an interesting nugget of info on him.  Looking at Liriano’s triple slash line, and knowing he hit third in the TinCap’s lineup you would assume he would have more than 62 RBI in 116 G for the TinCaps.  Nope.  Liriano last year found himself more as a table setter than anything else.

Everyone is excited about Liriano’s five tool ability, and believe me I have been on the Liriano band wagon since I saw him in the AZL a few years ago, BUT despite his impressive line, and his Midwest MVP award, I will hold off on anointing him the Padres number one prospect.  The reason for that is Liriano (who is now 20) is still young and has a long way to go before we see him in San Diego.  Two years ago we were all hailing Simon Castro as the next great Padres pitcher throwing him into the same sentence as Peavy, and yet when Castro was recently traded this offseason no one made much of a fuss (ed. note: Myron did!).  I am a huge Liriano supporter but as many of us know there is about as good of a chance that Liriano will never make it past Double-AA as there is he becomes an everyday MLB player.  I sure hope he lives up to his potential and becomes the next Vlad, but I am cautious.

4)      Connor Powers 1B 338/.422/.538
While Liriano rightfully won the Midwest League MVP, it was a tough decision to even name Liriano the team MVP because of what Connor Powers did for the club.  Powers gave Liriano someone to protect him in the lineup, and was able to “clean up” the bases every time Liriano got on.  Despite playing in 40 fewer games than Liriano, Powers ended up only one double behind him (30 vs. 29).  Powers doesn’t have the raw power that Storm fans are used to seeing from their previous first basemen (Freiman and Decker), but Powers has the ability to hit for a higher average, and has enough power that he could still belt 20 home runs in the Cal League.

5)      Donavan Tate CF/LF/DH .288/.410/.411 39 G, 29 BB, 35 K, 19 SB
Tate could eventually be the leadoff hitter, but without another “power” type bat to hit behind Powers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tate start the year off hitting fifth.  We all know about Tate’s abilities and we all know about his shortcomings.  If he can ever get his head on straight he can battle with Liriano for Cal League MVP.  Of course that is a big IF.

6)      Jake Blackwood 3B .269/.319/.456 17 HR, 36 2B
***OR Everett Williams LF/DH*** Blackwood was a Midwest League all-star before his promotion to Lake Elsinore (when Gyorko was promoted to Double-A) and he didn’t light the world on fire in Elsinore.  Still, Blackwood will either be around in Elsinore or San Antonio depending on what the Padres do with Gyorko.  Rincon will not be the everyday third basemen in San Antonio, as his defense still hasn’t improved, and Blackwood could provide that other bat in SA.  If that happens look for Bisson to be the everyday 3B.  Williams will split time in the outfield and DH.  Williams has a lot of potential, but had an attitude problem early in his career (too good to practice).  Well not much in stats and a big injury later and we will see if Williams has matured.  Williams still has excellent speed, but has not developed the pop everyone thought he would.  The potential might still be there but he is far away from reaching it.

7)      Rocky Gale/Emanuel Quiles C .267/.310/.333 (Gale), .211/.241/.279 (Quiles)
Quiles got the bulk of the starts last year behind the plate as he is a plus defender (at least compared to the other catchers the TinCaps had last year).  However, as you can see, he couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag.  In 300 at bats, Quiles had 13 xbh, 11 BB, and 64 K.  Gale provides more in terms of offense and got the bulk of the starts down the stretch.  Gale is a singles hitter, who is mainly just organizational depth.  As much as the Padres don’t want to rush Hedges, if he is hitting at all in Fort Wayne, look for a midseason promotion.

8)      Chris Bisson 3B/DH/2B  .261/.345/.321
Bisson, as well as teammates Noel and Guinn, were taken fairly highly in Jed Hoyer’s first draft.  Most importantly, all three of them were billed as “Petco park type players.”  Well so far, they may be Petco park players but they were not Midwest League players.  Bisson improved over the second half of the year hitting .274/.358/.341, but for a light hitting 2B it wasn’t enough.  Bisson should improve a bit in Elsinore, but unless he starts hitting over .300 with 30 SB he will get passed up and/or released.

9)      BJ Guinn SS .245/.307/.307 34 SB, 104 K
Speaking of light hitting middle infielders.  Guinn was supposed to lead the team with a .300 BA, 50 SB, and 100 RS.  Well, he had 18 extra base hits all year, a .551 OPS through the first half of the year and committed 29 errors at short.  We knew Guinn wouldn’t hit for much power, but the low BA, high K, and low OBP numbers are concerning.  Guinn was one of the big reasons the TinCaps struggled so much in the first half last year.  He will be kept around as the Padres need shortstop’s, but this might be his last chance, especially if Peterson hits well in Fort Wayne.

Look out for… Tommy Medica.  Medica hit fairly well in Fort Wayne before getting injured.  When he came back the Padres didn’t want to risk him getting re-injured and out for the remainder of the year so they kept him at DH/1B.  He hit .302/.440/.504 in Lake Elsinore.  If Medica is going to make the majors it will be as a catcher (where he has enough hitting ability to be a top 20 prospect on most teams).  However with Grandal in Tucson, Hagerty will stay in San Antonio which means if Medica is going to catch everyday like the organization wants it will be in Elsinore.  Also don’t forget that San Antonio only has DH half the time, and they also have big Nate Freiman at 1B.  While I originally had Medica in San Antonio, and he still might end up there, do not be surprised if he is the everyday catcher in Lake Elsinore (especially since there is not much else there).

Final Thought: This has the potential to be every bit as lethal of a lineup as the Storm have had over the past two years.  The team has some serious speed in Noel, Tate, Spangenberg, Liriano, Guinn, and Bisson.  They also have plenty of hitters that should hit at or close to .300.  Look for the team to challenge the league leaders in runs per game.  With the aforementioned hitters they have the ability to go all the way in the Cal League, especially considering they will have a rotation anchored by Madfriars numbers prospect Keyvius Sampson.

For most of the 2011 season the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps relied almost solely on one hitter and one hitter only, Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano.  The offense was so desolate that they were Padre-esque.  The 2011 TinCaps scored two or fewer runs in 32 of their first 72 games.  Their fortune started changing in the second half when Connor Powers started paying immediate dividends.   The good news is that Powers and later Cory Spangenberg helped fuel the team to the playoffs, the bad news for the 2012 team is that Liriano, Spangenberg, Powers, and nearly everyone else from the 2011 squad will be in Lake Elsinore in 2012.

The 2012 squad will look for new blood to help them get back to the playoffs.  It will be a very young team filled with players who have the potential to be in the upper echelon of prospects.  So without further ado here is your 2012 team.

1)      Jace Peterson, shortstop:
Selected in the first round by the Padres and picked by Matt Eddy as his breakout player for the 2012 season, Peterson has the speed and ability that you want to see at the top of any order.  He had 39 SB (10 CS) in 73 G and could easily get over 50 in a full season.  Peterson is a slick fielder, which means for once, that the Padres don’t have to face an immediate question as to whether or not he will be moved to second base (see Galvez, Cumberland, E-Cab, etc…).  The question will be whether Jace can hit well enough to stay at the top of the order.  Hopefully we can see a better season out of Jace than we did out of Guinn last year (.245/.307/.307, 34 SB).

2)      Casey McElroy, second base:
McElroy was taken in the 11^th round and signed right at the deadline for above slot money.  McElroy play second base in high school but shortstop at Auburn.  With Jace at short he will undoubtedly return to second.  With Auburn, McElroy led the SEC in hits, and finished in the top 10 in nearly all offensive categories including batting average (.370), RBI (53), HR (9), and 2B (18).  He hit .301/.381/.466 in 19 games in Eugene.

3)      Luis Domoromo, left field:
Domoromo will be more than likely be returning to the TinCaps to begin the 2012 season.  For a 19-year-old in Fort Wayne, Luis had a pretty spectacular 2011 season hitting .283/.335/.405 with 9 HR and 68 RBI in 112 games.  The Venezuelan should only get stronger and better during the offseason.  If Domoromo can work on his eye, as he continues to build muscle, he very well could be a MWL All-Star.

4)      Lee Orr, designated hitter:
Orr led the Ems in HR (8) and was one of the leaders in the NWL.  Orr has some of the best power on the team and can be a 20-20 guy in the MWL.  The question will be whether or not he can hit enough in the MWL.  Orr hit only .219 with 88 K in 62 G.

5)      Jose Dore, right field:
Dore signed at the deadline in 2010, hit .375 in the Arizona League, and the came to Fort Wayne last year after the Tate/Williams collision.  After hitting well initially, Dore struggled to make solid contact.  After struggling he was demoted to Eugene where he once again struggled making solid contact.  Dore has a big arm, is a plus fielder, great power, and has yet to turn 20.  Dore has the makings of a top prospect but will need to cut down on his strikeouts as he had 111 Ks in 98 combined games between Eugene and Lake Elsinore.

6)      Duanel Jones, third base:
Another young prospect with a lot of potential.  Jones, as many know, was given a huge bonus as a 16-year-old, only to have it taken away when he tested positive for an illegal substance.  Well that voided contract was the opportunity the Padres needed to swoop in.  While he struggled at times in Peoria and Eugene, he did show great power (8 HR in 37 AZL games), and has the chance to develop into a strong middle of the order hitter.  But for right now as a 19-year-old, batting a little lower in the order should relieve some of the pressure.

7)      Austin Hedges, catcher:
Coming into the draft we kept on hearing: “Hedges is already an MLB quality backstop on defense, but the offense will be the question.”  However, from interviewing Randy Smith among others, and looking at his stats, he has been a pleasant surprise on offense.  Hedges defense will be top notch, but if he can hit even .250/.320/.380, he will continue to jump up the prospect charts.

8 )      Zach Kometani, first base:
He might be the default first basemen and split time with quite a few others, but for the time being he is the best choice at first.  The USD product has pretty good power (second on the Ems in both HR (4) and 2B (13)), but does not have a great eye at the plate, and like way too many first basemen has a longer than normal swing that will affect his batting average.  The best case is a Cody Decker type player, but more than likely will be lucky make it to Double-A.

9)      Kyung-Min Na, center field:
Acquired in the Anthony Rizzo trade, Na provides speed and defense for the TinCaps.  Na is the type of player that when he learns how to run the bases has the speed to be a 50+ SB player.  The question is, will he hit enough?  Na hit .171/.276/.184 in 25 MWL games last year.  A year older and the now 20-year-old should hopefully provide that spark at the bottom of the lineup.  If he can hit like the Padres hope (as they essentially gave up Cates for him), he can provide a dynamic one-two punch with Peterson, but for right now I see him batting at the bottom of the order until he can prove he can hit.  (See what they did with Guinn towards the end of last year).

Last year the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps had some dominant pitching, led by top prospect Keyvius Sampson.  This year should be no different.  The interesting thing about the Fort Wayne rotation is that it shows off the two different types of top drafted pitchers.  Do you go for the polished college pitcher with a high floor and low ceiling (Andriese, Hebner, and Pope), or do you go after the high schooler with tremendous, but raw, ability (Portillo, Barbato, Ross, Kelly)?

The other question is who is going to fill the giant void left by Kevin Quackenbush?  The ace closer will be pitching up I-15, leaving Fort Wayne searching for their closer de jour.  Eugene had eight different pitchers close out at least one game, and a majority of the saves came over the last few weeks of the year showing that there was not an odds on favorite for closer in Fort Wayne.   Conundrum or not the college arms taken in the 2011 draft should provide a solid bullpen for the Tin Caps, something the 2010 team was sorely missing.

Starting Rotation:

Matt Andriese: 3^rd round draft pick from the 2011 draft, and the first college pitcher taken by the Padres.  Andriese signed immediately and dominated from the beginning in Eugene.  He went 5-1, with a 1.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and averaged over a K/IP.  Andriese has good size and mechanics that should enable him to stay with the TinCaps.  He doesn’t have tremendous stuff as his fastball tops out around 93-94, but he has good movement and a solid slider that he uses as his strikeout pitch.  He needs to improve on his slider and change if he wants to succeed at the upper levels but he has a high floor which should lead him to dominate at Fort Wayne.

Cody Hebner: Hebner doesn’t have the size that most hope for, but he gets every bit out of his 5’11” frame and is a true student of the game.  Hebner is the first in the video room and the last to leave.  Hebner uses his FB as his bread and butter pitch.  He doesn’t nibble but sometimes his pitches will move be too much and lead to walks.  This led to the 15 walks in 37.2 IP.   He has a good 12-6 curve, with late action, that can be close to 20 mph slower than his FB.  At this point he doesn’t have a true change-up or slider, but both have already improved since joining the Padres.  Hebner is another pitcher with a high floor.  His ceiling is as a back of the rotation starter, but that shouldn’t stop him from excelling in Fort Wayne.

Adys Portillo:  Not much needs to be said about Portillo.  Tremendous stuff, but the results haven’t followed yet.  Another year in Fort Wayne and hopefully this time yields better results for Portillo.  He has received rave reviews during instructs, and as he continues to hit 98 on the gun, should finally be able to dominate.

John Barbato: Speaking of pitchers with high upside…  Barbato has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the system not named Portillo or Sampson.  Barbato has a plus fastball and slider, both of which have the ability to be absolutely filthy.  Like most young pitchers his change is a work in progress, but as he develops it also has the change to really make him an ace pitcher.  While everyone loves movement, Barbato suffered this past season from too much movement.  He often struggled finding home plate with his fastball which led to 31 BB in just 57 IP.  Ace potential but needs to locate his pitches better.

Joe Ross: 1^st round selection by the Padres in the past draft.  Ross was given a huge bonus to not attend UCLA so I would guess he jumps Eugene in favor or Fort Wayne.  For being a pitcher a few months removed from high school, Ross has already displayed two plus MLB pitches in his fastball and curve.  He can already hit 95 on the gun which should go up a few mph as he gains more muscle.  Ross could find himself on the fast track to San Diego, but he needs to gain experience.  Ross has a very high ceiling, but like most high school draftees also has a very low floor.

Mark Pope: Pope might end up in the pen as the #5 starter, but chances are he gets a chance to start at least to begin the year.  Pope is not afraid and pounds the zone with his fastball (around 90).  He has a solid slider and curve and is not afraid to throw any pitch in any count.  Similar to Hebner and Andriese, Pope has a high floor with a low ceiling.  He will probably wind up in the pen, but he is a veteran enough pitcher (and was given over slot money) that he should do well in Fort Wayne.

Other Candidates:  Michael Kelly could crack the starting rotation, but after missing the entire 2010 season by not signing until the deadline, Kelly needs time working on his delivery.  Kelly might have better “stuff” then Ross or Barbato but his delivery has been inconsistent and he needs to get his delivery ironed out before facing pro hitters.  Other candidates include James Needy, Juan Herrera, Colin Rea, Chris Wilkes, and William Scott.

Bullpen:

With Quackenbush more than likely ending up in Lake Elsinore, there is not a clear cut favorite for who will be the closer in Fort Wayne.  When Quack was promoted to Fort Wayne last year Eugene had seven different people record a save.  No one really showed the dominance to become the everyday closer.  With all that being said the favorite might be Rafael Arias if he can come back from surgery and show off his mid 90’s fastball.   Other candidates include Chris Wilkes (5-1, 3.28 ERA, 35.2 IP, 46K/18 BB), Matt Stites (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 32.2 IP, 36 K/8 BB), or Greg Gonzalez (4-1, 3.99 ERA, 29.1 IP, 33 K/12 BB).  James Jones was the closer in Peoria before a late season call up to Eugene.

Of course of the above names, the name that most people recognize is Aaron (Richie) Cunningham.  Cunningham hit .288/.331/.417 while playing excellent D in San Diego.  Mark Grant and Dick Enberg were recently talking about a diving catch that Cunningham made last year in LF, as one of the best defensive plays last year.  At only 25 (just turned 25 in April), Cunningham is entering his prime and ready to do damage in San Diego.  The problem with Cunningham, however, is that he doesn’t do anything special offensively outside of hit for a pretty high average.  He doesn’t hit for much power(8 last year, 12 the year before), doesn’t steal a lot of bases (0 this year, 3 last year, 11 in 09’), and his BB/K ratio leaves something to be desired.  Cunningham has hit for a bit more power this year, and has improved his BB% to 13.5% (up from 8.0% last year), and lowered his K% 17.4% (23.8% last year).  While Cunningham will never hit for power to make him a legit corner OF, considering Venable is hitting .236, and Ludwick is hitting .208, a player with excellent defense who can hit close to .300 in the majors might deserve at least the same playing time he got last year in San Diego.

Cedric Hunter was at one time the #1 prospect in the Padres system.  The idea was excellent CF, great approach at the plate, and would develop power.  However, the power has never really developed, and when a singles hitter struggles he drops down the rankings fast.  After leading all of minor league baseball in hits as a 20 year old in Lake Elsinore just 3 years ago Hunter is now trying to prove he is worth another shot at the majors.  Watching Hunter in the OF reminded me a lot of watching Andrew Jones just float to the ball.  However, unlike Jones, Hunter’s offense leaves a lot to be desired.  While he has speed he has never translated it into SB.  The 17 SB he stole in 52 G as an 18 year old in Arizona (AZL MVP) remains the most in his career despite spending the last 5 years in full season ball.  Hunter does have 6 SB so far this year in 30 G.  Hunter has never had much power but is also 23 in AAA.  While some think he still has a chance to develop power, those people are getting few and far between.  The greatest thing about Hunter is that he does not strike out.  Hunter struck out just 8.1% last year, and is at 7.9% this year.  Unfortunately, he also doesn’t walk much.  The value in Hunter really depends on him being able to hit over .300, with his great K numbers, and enough power/SB to keep pitchers on their toes.  Either way, at least now, he doesn’t profile or deserve much in the majors.  Another year or two of improving numbers in AAA, and he might (again only 23), but by that time his MLB callup will probably be with another organization.

No one has more speed on the basepaths than Luis Durango.  Even better is that Durango is an excellent bunter and keeps the ball on the ground and an astounding rate.  Durango has stolen 40+ bases each of the last 2 years including 7 of 8 in San Diego.  However, it became a joke last year when Luis Durango would get his first extra base hit.  He had 7 xbh in over 400 AB last year, and hasn’t hit a HR since May of 2008 in Fort Wayne.  Speaking of power it was also reported that Durango had an OF arm that made Juan Pierre throw like Willie Mays.  Durango has been working on building muscle each of the last 2 off seasons and reports are that he is stronger and able to at least keep runners honest in the OF and fielders not playing him like an 8 year old girl in over the line.  Durango really needed a strong 2011 to show that he belongs at least as a 4^th OF in the majors.  So far it hasn’t happened L In 35 G Durango is hitting a career low of .257/.342/.305 with his worst SB ratio (4 in 8 attempts) in his career.  Despite his best efforts Durango will never evolve into an MLB starter, however he does have tremendous value in his speed.  With Durango’s speed, his ability to get down a bunt, and steal a base, he would be an ideal 4^th/5^th OF on an AL team.  Think Boston with Doc Roberts.  However, San Diego is not an AL team and has plenty of 4^th/5^th OF types already with the above 2, Denorfria, and Eric Patterson.  If Durango is going to make the majors and stick there he will need to increase his SB% which has always been one of his crutches.  Even more unfortunate is that Durango is already being challenged for playing time with Hunter, Clark, and Cunningham in the OF and will find it even harder when Baxter comes back.  Combine that with the likelihood of seeing at least 1 OF from AA being called up at the ASB and Durango’s time is dwindling.

All 3 players have the “potential” to be a solid contributor at the MLB level.  However, all 3 also have the drawbacks that make them overshadowed by the players in SD and those in AA.  With all 3 players on the 40 man roster,  they might be crossing their fingers for an injury to get a chance one last time in San Diego to prove that they belong.  Of course of the 3 which one will be chosen?  Hunter made the opening day roster with Patterson hurt, but that was partially attributed to Bud Black saying they wanted to let Cunningham start everyday in RF.  Cunningham has put up the best numbers in AAA but none have been spectacular.  Will any of them get the call before someone is DFA to make room for a AA  OF or Anthony Rizzo?

Since then the Padres AAA affiliate has gone 385-478, capped by finishing 26 games under .500 last year.  Sure, some it can be blamed on bad luck and injuries (both in the minors and in the majors), but a lot has to be placed on the inability of KT and company to draft well.  Heck only one Padre is left from that 2004 Beavers team…Tim Stauffer.

While pitching hasn’t been great the biggest problem has been the hitting.  The PCL is known as a hitter friendly league, and yet the Beavers managed to finish 15th in league in RS (which was nearly 100 behind the league AVERAGE).  If the Beavers, now Padres, want to regain their AAA glory days they need to get better hitters and score more runs (I feel like John Madden with my analysis there).

Well, bring on 2011!!!  A new year, and a combination of a log jam in the majors, and Moorad and company draft picks (plus a certain 1B) are bound to help make Tucson at least a fun place to watch a game.

Lineup:
1) Everth Cabrera (SS)- I don’t need to write much here.  We all know and love him, but he is young and needs to improve his offense to return to the Padres.  In 2008 Cabrera stole 73 bases in High-A… hopefully he can regain that.  Maybe being in a hitter friendly park and not having to face Lincecum and MLB pitchers will help him regain his form.  The Padres might bat him 8th or 9th and have Durango lead off, but seeing how E-Cab is the better prospect I would guess he would get most of the time leading off.

2) Cedric Hunter (CF) – Contact thy name is Cedric Hunter.  Hunter went from being the #1 Padre prospect after the 2008 season to almost completely falling off the map after struggling in 2009.  After a fairly strong 2010 Hunter put himself somewhat back on the map.  Add in the fact that in limited ST playing time he has hit .435/.481/.826 in 23 G this spring and Hunter is making an impression that the just turned 23 year old has finally turned the corner.   People have always said that he will “develop into power,” and while that still hasn’t really happened Hunter just needs to continue to play to his strength of contact and a high bating average.  Lets hope that working with Doc Roberts will also increase his SB numbers, he has the wheels but no numbers to show for it.

3) Anthony Rizzo (1B) – I originally had him penciled in as the starting 1B for the Missions, but after more recent reports, and watching him demolish ST pitching, I would be shocked if he wasn’t in Tucson to open up the season.  Rizzo is young, plays great defense, and has tremendous power potential.  Rizzo has never been a high average hitter and he strikes out more than you would like (average for a power hitter), but considering he was facing pitchers 3-4 years older than him makes it understandable.  Look for him to be in SD by the end of the year.

4) James Darnell (3B) – A top prospect, that felt the wrath of Nelson Wolff Stadium.  Away: .311/.382/.467 — Home: .223/.317/.352.  Darnell doesn’t have quite the power potential of Rizzo, but still led the Padres minors in HR in 2009.  Darnell has a career .298/.399/.490 and those numbers should improve hitting right in the middle of a very potent AAA lineup.  Darnell also has a good eye at the plate, and has maintained close to a 1:1 BB/K ratio which is great for any hitter, especially one who hits for power.  He is only 24 (as of Jan) and if Headley doesn’t turn the corner this year, he might very well be the heir to 3B in SD.

5) Kyle Blanks/Matt Clark (DH when applicable) – This one is interesting and will be the toughest decision the Padres have to make.  The Padres seem set that Rizzo will be the AAA first basemen getting most of the starts.  We know Blanks will be in AAA.  Does that mean he will in LF/DH or do they want to move him back to 1B?  Blanks might start the season on the DL or be relegated to DH until healthy.  Either way he is easily the most established hitter on the team.  Which brings us to Matt Clark.  The dude (also 24 like Blanks and Darnell) led all of the Padres minors in HR last year despite doing so in the horrendous Texas League.  He is what he is, a tremendous power hitter, okay defense, strikes out a lot, and will give you something around .275/.350/.490, which is great!  But with the addition of Rizzo he doesn’t have a position.  Do they leave him at AA another year?  Or does he try to squeeze ABs between Rizzo and Blanks (add in the fact that the PCL only has the DH about 50% of the time).  Tough call and poor Clark…

6)Logan Forsythe (2B) – Forsythe put up one of my favorite splits of all time last year in the Texas League.  .316/.449/.429 away vs .189/.300/.245 at home.  These splits dropped Forsythe considerably in most rankings, however spring training this year has reminded people why the Padres are so high on him (.292/.400/.583 in 18 ST games).  Forsythe doesn’t have the power numbers to stay at 3rd, but when he is on he can hit for average and get on base with the best of them.  If he can cut down on his K numbers (95 last year, 111 in 2009) he would be the ideal #2 hitter.  Right now we will put him at six.

7) Aaron Cunningham (RF) – I am a HUGE Cunningham fan.  He plays spectacular defense and showed last year that he belongs on the Padres.  Unfortunately with Dino and Eric Patterson he will start the year in AAA (again).  Maybe it was pushing too hard but Cunningham actually put up better numbers in SD than he did in Portland.  Cunningham hit only .251/.333/.413 last year which wasn’t horrible, though considering he hit .288/.331/.417 in SD it’s a bit of a head scratcher.  Hopefully hitting in a very balanced and deep lineup will help.

8 ) Mike Baxter (LF) – Its hard to write this but as of right now I have a guy who hit .301/.382/.517 and led the Beavers in almost every offensive category last year as the #8 hitter. Maybe he moves up to 6th or 7th and Hunter/Forsythe move down, but he is no longer the “big” hitter in the lineup.  By the way, Baxter also stole 22 basses last year and had 10 triples.   I don’t think the Padres want to see much improvement out of him as he has already proved a lot.  If he can repeat those numbers it will be a very good year for the Tucson Padres.

9) Luis Martinez/Kyle Phillips (C) – Like Baxter, both Martinez and Phillips hit in the middle of the order last year.  Martinez hit .282/.368/.349 in AA then hit .361/.415/.417 in the Arizona Fall League.  Phillips came over from Toronto and immediately gave the Beavers a spark last year hitting .324/.365/.432 in 55 G.   I think it is funny that because of depth these guys will wind up at the bottom of the order.  Defensively I don’t know much about Phillips, but Martinez has one of the best guns I have seen.

Others:  The one obvious name missing from the lineup is Luis Durango.  We all know he has tremendous speed and has about as much power as my 80 year old grandma (happy birthday!).  He will split time with Hunter, Baxter, and Cunningham but it is hard to see him getting to play 100+ games this year, unless Cunningham gets called up early.  Where is he going to find playing time if Blanks returns healthy and is playing LF every day?  Another OF is Sawyer Carrol. After an outstanding 2009 he fell off the map hitting only .240/.324/.345 in his repeat performance in AA.  Could he end up in AA for a 3rd year in a row?  Andy Parrino will undoubtedly be the super utility infielder playing 2B/SS/3B.  Craig Cooper is also still in the Padres farm system though I have no idea for how much longer.

No matter how you look at it the Padres will finally have a stacked lineup in AAA.  What might be even better is the fact that they have depth, so if one or two pieces get called up they have other talented prospects that can step into a starting role.  Unlike 2004 let’s hope that this AAA team not only wins, but has prospects that actually become quality major leaguers (unlike Nady and a bunch of 4-A players and poor Bozied).  I sure hope so as this lineup contains 2 players (Blanks and Hunter) that have previously been ranked #1 Padre prospects, 3 others that were ranked top 10 Padre prospects (Forsythe, Darnell, Rizzo), another player that is only a couple years removed from stealing 73 bases (Everth), plus a few other quality pieces.  Dang, I can’t wait for April 7th when either Luebke or Castro toe the rubber at Colorado Springs.  It will be an exciting year

Coming into the 2010 season, Padre fans had a reason to rejoice.  Many of the prospects were coming off great seasons, and it looked like a bright future for the Padres.  Sadly it ended up being a season riddled with injuries as five of the top 10 spent significant time on the DL.  Combine that with the inability to sign 1^st round draft pick Karsten Whitson and it was a rough year on the farm.  Despite that there is a lot to look forward to, especially after trading Adrian for three top prospects.  The past few years have seen the Padres shy away from the “safe” picks and go to the more risky high school and JUCO picks.  Sprinkle in a few well scouted Dominican kids and the rankings are increasingly deep.  Will they pan out?  No one will know for a few years, but the farm is ripe with that word that both excites and frustrates us to no end … potential.

***Updated after offseason trades

1)      Casey Kelly: RHP (AA, 3-5, 5.31 ERA, 95 IP, 118 H, 35 BB, 81 K)  The Red Sox challenged the 20 year old pitcher by placing him in AA.  2010 was also his first full year as a pitcher.  The right-hander responded by struggling in AA.  Despite this Kelly has a ton of upside, and is still considered an elite prospect.  Kelly has solid stuff and has the potential to be a solid #2 or 3 pitcher in the big leagues.  Another year in AA should see Kelly put up the numbers that he is capable of.

2)      Simon Castro: RHP (AA, 7-6, 2.92 ERA, 129.2 IP, 36 BB, 107 K)  At 22 years of age the front office took a leap of faith when they had Castro skip Lake Elsinore and go straight to San Antonio.  Castro didn’t disappoint being named a mid and postseason Texas League all-star, as well as the starting pitcher for the World team in the Futures Game.  Some of us were hoping for a better season from the Dominican right-hander, but it’s hard to complain about a guy who is one of the top minor league pitching prospects in all of baseball.  Look for him to be pitching in Petco by the end of the 2011 season.

3)      Jaff Decker: OF (A+, .262/.374/.500 in 79 G)  Despite missing all of April, half of May, and the last 2 weeks of the season, Jaff remains the Padres #3 prospect.   Decker’s post all-star break numbers of .305/.439/.616, with 13 HR, 44 RS, 46 RBI and nearly a 1:1 BB:K ratio shows just how special this 20 year old prospect is.  Decker has lost a lot of the “PMac” weight that had kept many scouts on the fringe.  Decker has the tools and talents to be a mainstay in the majors for years to come.

4)      Drew Cumberland: SS (A+/AA, .350/.385/.505 in 75 G)  For the past two years scouts have been describing Cumberland as “tremendous potential, needs to stay healthy.”  Well after making it into only 56 G in 2008 and 77 G in 2009, Cumberland was once again derailed by injuries as he appeared in only 75 G in 2010.  Despite that, when he was healthy he was incredible.  In just 60 G in the Cal League he scored 63 runs had 91 hits and 20 SB.  Going into 2011 the question will once again be about health, but with Cabrera struggling in San Diego, Drew can make an impact on San Diego IF he can stay healthy.

5)      Anthony Rizzo: 1B (AA, 107 G, .263/.334/.481 30 2B, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 45 BB, 100 K)  Like Kelly, the Red Sox challenged Rizzo by placing him in AA at the tender age of 20.  He responded by putting up extremely solid numbers.  He has plus power that should translate well to Petco.  He currently doesn’t have the patience needed to be a true middle of the order hitter, but being so young, has a lot of time and room to grow.  With Clark/Blanks likely to begin the season as the AAA 1B, he could start the year in San Antonio and then challenge for the starting spot in 2012.

6)      James Darnell: 3B (AA, .271/.359/.422 in 108 G)  The Padres were expecting big things from Darnell in 2010.  The biggest problem was that, like most of the Mission’s hitters, he had a phobia of hitting at home.  Away from home he had .180 points higher OPS (.849 vs .669).  He did hit better overall in the second half with an .819 OPS.  Darnell has the skills and ability to be a middle of the order bat in the majors, and will have an opportunity to showcase himself next year in the hitter friendly PCL.

7)      Keyvius Sampson: RHP (SS Eugene, 3-3. 3.56 ERA, 43 IP, 17 BB, 58 K).  Sampson got his first real taste of action in Eugene this year and he didn’t disappoint.  In his first seven starts Sampson was 3-0, 1.87 ERA, 33.2 IP, 46 K.  The last three starts were hampered by injuries and Sampson was eventually shut down for the rest of the year.  At only 19, any pitcher who can produce those types of numbers more often than not ends up being something special.  Samspson will be the ace of a very good Fort Wayne pitching staff next year.

8)      Matt Lollis: RHP (SS, A 7-4, 2.12 ERA, 89 IP, 21 BB, 69 K).  No Padre prospect made a name for themselves like Lollis.  He joined an Emerald team loaded with great pitchers (four of the five made the list) and out shined them all.  The then 19 year old had a sub one WHIP after six starts in Eugene.  He then was promoted to Fort Wayne where he was their pitcher of the year.  A behemoth at 6’ 9” 250 LB, Lollis can throw his low to mid 90s FB for strikes to both sides of the plate.  Combine that with a slider, curve and an improving change and Lollis will move through the system fast.  He might not have the “potential” of Sampson or Portillo, but he definitely has the chance to be a #3 MLB starter.  Despite only throwing nine games in Fort Wayne he will start the year in Elsinore with a chance to have a Castro-esque skip.

9)      Jason Hagerty: C (A, .302/.423/.494 35 2B, 14 HR, 74 RBI in 122 G).  In a star studded Tin Cap lineup Hagerty out shined them all.  Over the second half there was no player in the LEAGUE and possibly ALL of minor league baseball more dominant than this 22 year old catcher out of Miami.  He hit .351/.479/.586 with a 1:1 BB:K ratio.  Some had doubted his ability to stay at catcher, but with his offense also came a tremendous improvement behind the plate.  Balls in the dirt, release times, calling a game, all showed improvements from 2009 to 2010.  If Hagerty can put up those types of numbers in the MWL, I fear for pitchers in the Cal League.

10)   Cory Luebke: LHP (AA/AAA 10-1, 2.68 ERA, 114 IP, 29 BB, 88 K.  SD 1-1, 4.08 ERA, 17.2 IP, 6 BB, 18 K).  Normally numbers like these would warrant that Luebke, who came in at 6^th last year in my rankings, would stay higher in the rankings after going 10-1 in the second highest minor league level AND striking out 18 in 17.2 big league innings.  More than anything, this just speaks to the depth of the Padres minor league system.  Luebke is a talented lefty with 3 MLB quality pitches.  He doesn’t have that plus pitch to make him stand out, but he mixes up his pitches well, has good control over all of them, and keeps hitters guessing.  He should be a mainstay #3 or #4 starter in the majors within the next two seasons.

11)   Donovan Tate: CF (Rookie, .222/.336/.344 2 HR, 7 SB, 19 RS , 15 BB, 41 K in 25 G).  This ranking is based 100% on potential, as a non-healthy Tate is the only version the Padres have seen since the 2009 draft.  In October he was named the Padres instructional league MVP.  He has the potential to be an all-star MLB OF, but that doesn’t mean anything until he can put up numbers in the minors.  He should be captaining a strong Fort Wayne OF, and if healthy should put up the numbers we know he is capable of.

12)   Adys Portillo: RHP (Eugene, 2-6, 4.79 ERA, 62 IP, 40 BB, 62 K).  While none of those numbers are outstanding, Portillo has improved drastically from 2009-2010.  BAA dropped from .321 in the AZL last year to .241 and K ratio has gone from 7.52 to 9.  At just 18 years of age Portillo has the ability to be something extremely special.  Portillo can sit comfortably in the mid 90’s with his FB and his secondary pitches have gotten better every year.  Right now its just about staying healthy, working on repeating his delivery, and continual improvement with his secondary pitches.  If he does look for him to explode onto the radar of the national media and become a top 10 pitching prospect in all of MiLB.

13)   Reymond Fuentes: CF (A, .270/.328/.377 15 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR, 42 SB, 25 BB, 87 K)  As soon as the Adrian trade was announced the comparisons immediately began to be made between Fuentes and Tate.  Both play CF, have tremendous speed and ++ defense.  Both also have extremely raw hitting skills.  Fuentes is a little bit further along than Tate, but does not have the same raw power potential that Tate possess.   He will have the opportunity to put on a show in Lake Elsinore in 2011, and the Padres are hoping that his potential and numbers will start to equate.

14)   Blake Tekotte: CF (A+/AA .276/.367/.478 85 RS, 18 HR, 28 SB in 126 G).  Tekotte has always been viewed as a tremendous CF.  He gets great jumps on the ball, has a + arm, and is fairly accurate.  The question would always be can he hit well enough.  After posting a .941 OPS with 22 SB in a half in the Cal League he was promoted to AA.  His numbers were not nearly as good but like most 2010 Missions had a .150+ point difference between H/R splits.  Tekotte has the speed and power to be a force in the majors.  The biggest question will be whether he can cut down on the strikeouts (109 in 126 G) and if he can hit for a high enough average to be a starter at the big league level.

15)   Logan Forsythe: 2B (AA, .253/.377/.337 22 2B, 17 SB, 107 G).  Forsythe was moved to second base this year for different reasons.  The biggest was that with Sogard traded and Antonelli injured, Forsythe has a chance to be the Padres #1 2B prospect.  On the road he was every bit the prospect that the Padres had envisioned hitting .316/.449/.429 and 41 RS in 52 G.  That gave him over a .300 differential between H/R.  Forsythe will get a boost moving to the PCL and his numbers should go up, however he will need to cut down on his 95 K in 107 G in order to be a legitimate 2B prospect.

16)   Jedd Gyorko: 3B (Eugene/ A, .302/.372/.444 7 HR, 41 RBI, 58 K in 68 G).  The 2010 draftee burst on the scene and was the lone bright spot in a horrendous Eugene offense.   Despite being drafted as a second baseman, the front office seems content with Jedd staying at third.  Gyorko has a smooth swing and makes hard contact with the ball.  Given that this was his first soirée into pro ball he made quite an impact.  He still will need to show he can replicate it over an entire season, but so far the Padres are impressed with this infielder from West Virginia.

17)   Zach Cates: RHP (2010 draftee, DNP).  Cates signed right at the deadline last year and didn’t get a chance to pitch in pro ball in 2010. Despite not playing in either Eugene or Peoria it looks like Cates will be starting in Fort Wayne and could very well be the Tin Caps #2 starter. Like Sampson, Cates has an overpowering fastball that consistently sits in the mid 90’s topping out at 98 mph. Cates has a solid change and a breaking ball that is a work in progress. Despite being erratic at times Cates has tremendous upside and has a chance to shoot through the Padres system.

18)   Jonathon Galvez: SS (A, .259/.360/.397 10 HR, 18 SB in 114 G).  Like Portillo, Galvez is another young Dominican who has the potential for greatness.  At just 19 years old he put up a respectable season for any middle infielder in the MWL.  The biggest problem was the 43 errors at short and 121 strikeouts.  Many have questioned whether or not Galvez would be able to stay at short, and if he cannot iron out some of his mechanical flaws in the field that will be the case.  He gets pull happy at times, and needs to focus on playing small ball and using his eye and speed to his advantage.  An encouraging sign saw Galvez hit .309/.377/.518 over his final 31 games.  He still is incredibly young and gifted, but has a long way to go before we hear his name in San Diego.

19)   Edinson Rincon: 3B (A, .250/.315/.399 13 HR, 69 RBI in 132 G)  Rounding out the trio of talented Dominican players is Edinson Rincon.  Few young prospects have the pure swing and ability of Rincon.  He struggled early in the MWL and it seemed to affect him throughout most of the year.  There is no doubting that he can be a force in the middle of any lineup, the key will be where will he play.  He has currently played at 3B, but 36 errors later and many scouts are hoping for a position change to the OF sooner rather than later.  Rincon should rejoice in the warm air of the Cal League, but will need to improve at third if he has any hope of staying there.

20)   Cedric Hunter: LF/CF (AA/AAA .287/.342/.397 40 xbh, 14 SB, 47 BB, 44 K in 136 G).  Two years ago Cedric Hunter was a consensus top five Padre prospect.  At just 20 years of age he had more hits (186) than anyone in all of the minors.  Most people thought of him as a speedy contact hitter who could play CF and hit .300+ in the majors for a long time.  A year later those hopes were dashed.  After a strong but not up to expectations 2010, Hunter has regained some of his former elite status. Being just 22 years of age those 2010 numbers are fairly impressive.  Hunter has a sweat stroke and rarely strikes out.  Going forward the goal for Hunter is to just build off a solid 2010 and continue to grow and improve.  Being just 23 he will still be young for the PCL and might have a shot as a late season call up in September.

21)   Rymer Liriano: CF/RF (Eugene/Low A .231/.288/.342 36 xbh, 31 SB, 119 K, in 117 G).  Being only 18 when the season started the front office decided to challenge him by skipping Eugene and having him start in Fort Wayne.  Unfortunately, he didn’t respond as well as they hoped and when camp in Eugene opened up he went down a level.  Liriano is a truly gifted fielder with a tremendous arm, great routes and a strong first step.  Like most young Dominican hitters Liriano will swing at anything that doesn’t hit him.  Unlike most hitters though he can hit a ball at his feet 400 feet in the air.  The Padres have been working with him extensively at becoming more selective at the plate, but so far few improvements have been made.  He will still be extremely young next year when he gets another crack at the MWL and with any luck will have a chance to outshine Tate in Fort Wayne.

22)   Everett Williams: OF (A, .244/.333/.372 35 xbh, 10 SB, 131 K in 107 G).  Great potential, needs to improve on his work ethic.  Williams battled illness and a few minor injuries over the year, but did not have the year that everyone knows he is capable of.  He has a loop in his swing which didn’t improve over the year and kept his strike out numbers high and his average low.  Williams has decent power for a fist year HS prospect, but could see a bigger jump if he uses his speed to his advantage.  He is still young and has a lot of time to make improvements.

23)   Juan Oramas: LHP (A/A+  7-4, 2.73 ERA, 99 IP, 29 BB, 115 K).  Oramas came over from the Mexican league as a relative unknown, but that is no longer the case.  After breezing through the MWL, Oramas quickly found himself within two outs of a perfect game in Lake Elsinore.  Oramas received some of the best praise a pitcher can get when then Fort Wayne manager Jesus Flores said “He is not afraid, he challenges, and he shows no fear out there.”  Pitching inside and pounding the strike zone made Oramas one of the more dominant pitchers in the Cal League.  He has two plus pitches but will need to continue improving his secondary stuff he wants to remain a starter through AAA.

24)   Dan Robertson: OF (A+, .300/.375/.418 9 3B, 30 SB, 59 BB, 52 K in 135 G).  It’s hard to not be a Dan Robertson fan.  Every time the critics question whether he can hit at higher levels he does just that.  After shattering the hit record (114 in 73 G) in the NWL in 2008, he has followed it up with back to back great seasons in the MWL and Cal League.  At only 5’8” 175 lb, Robertson isn’t your typical baseball player.  Despite that, no one plays the game harder or with more energy than Robertson.  He doesn’t have the ceiling of a lot of the other younger prospects, but gets every bit of ceiling out of his frame.  Call him an Eric Owens or David Eckstein clone, it doesn’t matter as long as hopefully we can call him a Padre someday.

25)   Jeremy McBryde: RHP (A+, 4-4, 4.38 ERA, 63.2 IP, 17 BB, 49 K).  McBryde was a top 10 prospect for me and was my pick for sleeper of the year.  Sadly injuries had a different idea.  McBryde missed the entire second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010 with injuries.  When he finally came back he wasn’t at 100% (or at least not the same pitcher from before the injury).  McBryde has one of the best sinking fastballs in the organization and can run it up there in the low 90’s, making it nearly impossible to do anything more than ground out.  He also has an above average slider and an improving change which can make him dominant when healthy.  Of course health and his work ethic will be the difference between a successful big league career and flailing out in AA

26)   Luis Durango: OF (AAA .300/.378/.325 7 xbh 35 SB, in 106 G, .250/.308/.250 5 SB in 28 G in SD).  By now most Padres fans know that Durango has some of the best wheels in the baseball.  He would probably also lose an extra base hit contest going up against 15 year olds.  Durango didn’t get his first xbh until after the all-star break.  Durango is a gifted hitter with tremendous speed, but if he can’t hit for enough power to at least keep the OF honest a lot of the bleeders that were singles this year will be outs next year.  Without that Durango is nothing more than a PR/forth OF extraordinaire.

27)   Duanel Jones: 3B (DSL, .211/.384/.246 15 BB, 16 K in 20 G) Jones was signed by the Padres for $900,000 in April after his contract with the Giants was voided after failing a drug test and was suspended for 50 games.  Jones has + tools and a great eye at the plate.  At 6’3”, 195 lb Jones  has a big athletic frame for a kid.  This is an all potential selection, but he has the natural ability to hit and make his way up this list.

28)   Nate Freiman: 1B (A, .294/.369/.457 43 2B, 14 HR, 84 RBI in 138 G).  It is hard to leave off a prospect that led the league in doubles, finished fourth in RBI, and sixth in TB.  Freiman was the most consistent player in a Tin Cap lineup full of potential but lacking in numbers.  Freiman became a leader at first and anchored the club.  He fixed a lot of the problems in his swing, and despite being a little old for the league (23), was one of the best all around players.  He is solid defensively and going into the Cal league should see his power numbers increase.

29)   James Needy: RHP (DNP)  Needy is someone who was probably left off most lists after missing the entire season with knee problems.  Despite that he has a ton of potential.  He has an above average fastball that tops out at 93 but has great movement.  He could possibly add a few mph as continues to grow.  His slider is strong and can be a + pitch if he can consistently locate it.  If his knee problems are a thing of the past he should start the year with fellow 2009 draftee Sampson in Fort Wayne.

30)   Matt Branham: RHP (Eugene, 6-3, 2.97 ERA, 60.2 IP, 15 BB, 56 K).  Being in a rotation that featured three top 12 prospects, the consensus Ems pitcher of the year was Matt Branham.  Branham was Mr. Consistency in the Ems rotation as he allowed two runs or less in all but two of his starts.  Branham might not have the upside of the others but has good command of all his pitchers and is able to stay low in the strike zone.

Bonus prospect

31)   Matt Clark: 1B (AA, .269/.339/.485 28 HR, 97 RBI, 146 K in 129 G).  Clark tied with Cody Decker for the Padre system home run crown.  More impressively though was that he did it in the horrendous Texas League.  Clark has tremendous power and never gets cheated at the plate.  Unfortunately, Clark was not able to fix his enormous swing as much as hoped.  As a result a lot of the time he either struck out or hit it a mile in the Texas air.  Clark’s power alone makes him a top 30 prospect, but if he is going to get more than a cup of coffee in the majors he will need to shorten up his swing and cut down on the K numbers.

So there you have it.  The Padres have the prospects in their system to go from an average farm system to one of the best in baseball.  The deciding factor will  whether many of these young, extremely talented prospects ever get close to the talent/potential we know they possess?

The rotation:
1) Simon Castro RHP (AA, 7-6, 2.92 ERA, 129.2 IP, 107 H, 36 BB, 107 K). Castro was last years #1 prospect in the Padres farm system, and also got the honor of being the starter for the world team in the MLB Futures game. At 22 it is hard to say that those numbers were disappointing, but most of us expected to see a bit more from this breakout Dominican pitcher. Anyone who is reading this already knows anything and everything about Simon Castro so I don’t need to say much else.
2) Cory Luebke LHP (AA/AAA 10-1, 2.68 ERA, 114 IP, 83 H, 29 BB, 88 K). Luebke will be given a shot to win the 5th starter spot with the Padres, but my guess is that when the dust is settled Luebke will at least begin the year in AAA. After a horrendous 1st half in 2008 that saw Luebke go 3-6 with a 6.84 ERA in Elsinore, Luebke has turned things around and become the pitcher the Padres thought he could be when they drafted him in the supplemental 1st round. Luebke is extremely smart, knows how to pitch, and keeps the ball down. He will probably begin the year in AAA but don’t expect him here for long. Lueke may not have the ceiling of Castro, Kelly, or a few of the other Padre pitching prospects, but a #4 type starter + left handed + Petco = double digit wins and a 3.6 ERA.
3) Jeremy Hefner RHP (AA 11-8, 2.95 ERA, 167.2 IP, 156 H, 51 BB, 115 K). Hefner is the pitcher who has been called, on multiple occasions, “the forgotten man.” For the past few years he has been stuck in a rotation featuring top prospects such as the 2 above him, Wynn Pelzer (now with Baltimore) and Corey Kluber (now with Cleveland). Luckily the Padres did not forget him when they added him to the 40 man roster during the offseason. Unspectacular but constantly efficient Hefner has an opportunity to prove the 2010 was not a fluke by putting up solid numbers in Tucson. At best Hefner is a #4 MLB starter, at worst he should be a 4A starter. Either or means that we should see a good season from Hefner.
4) Erik Davis RHP (A/AA/AAA 14-3, 3.52 ERA, 143.1 IP, 134 H, 48 BB, 133 K). There is a chance Davis starts the year in San Antonio, but when you go 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA, in 7 starts in AA I think he will get a long look at cracking the AAA staff. Add the fact that Davis has led the organization in wins 2 years in a row now (16-6 in 2009). Think of Davis as a right handed Wade Leblanc. The change isn’t as good, but the rest of his pitches are slightly better. He might end up fitting into the mold of a Josh Geer but definitely deserves a shot at either San Antonio or Tucson.
5) Will Inman RHP (AAA, 2-4, 3.61 ERA, 62.1 IP, 54 H, 27 BB, 52 K) Poor Will Inman. 4 years ago he was voted as the top pitcher in all of class A (by milb.com) after going 10-2, with a 1.71 ERA, and 134 K compared to 24 BB in 110 IP. Inman was the cornerstone of the Linebrink deal, and while we knew his stuff wouldn’t equate to all star MLB pitcher we all thought that he would end up being more than we have seen. Inman was actually posting his best year in the PCL before the flu and an elbow strain ended his season. Inman has always gotten by with great deception and a plus curve, however in AAA an average fastball can still be belted a long way with or without deception. Combine that with non fluid mechanics and the walks have soared. This might be Inman’s last year with the Padres. If he can’t put up the numbers he will be wearing another uniform by the end of 2011.

Others of note: Josh Geer is still hanging around. Sam Deduno will bounce between starting and relief, he will be talked about later. Casey Kelly will be in AAA by the all star break. Then there are the “others” that will pop up and make an appearance.

Bullpen:
Closer: Craig Italiano RHP (AA, 4-6, 2.58 ERA, 52 IP, 43 H, 27 BB, 36 K). Those stats are somewhat misleading as Italiano returned from an injury too soon and wasn’t the same. His 4-1, 0.72 ERA, 16 SV in 17 chances is more telling. The injury cost Italiano a spot on the 40 man roster, but luckily no one claimed him and he resigned with the Padres. If healthy and back to form Italiano is a HARD throwing righty who throws the ball from a very low ¾ giving him great downward action and making it extremely hard to hit. Combine a mid 90s fastball, trick arm angle, a sharp slider, and an ok change and you have the Texas Leagues top closer in 2010 (as voted on by BA)

8th inning: Evan Scribner: RHP (AA, 4-5, 2.79 ERA, 66 IP, 51 H, 15 BB, 81 K) Great command + + 12-6 curveball, low 90s FB with good sink, deceptive delivery, and you have all the makings for a solid back end of the rotation pitcher and either AAA or the majors. Scribner doesn’t have the heavy heat of Italiano, but he will join Frieri, Webb, and Gregerson in a long line of great young Padre relievers.

7th inning: Luis Perdomo: RHP (AAA, 4-6, 3.40 ERA, 82 IP 76 H, 34 BB, 49 K). Mid 90s FB, good slider, solid change. Perdomo has all the makings of a solid back end of the rotation pitcher. The problem is, and always has been control. When Perdmo is on his game he is nearly unhittable. When he is off he misses, and badly. IF Perdomo ever gets the command that they know he is capable of, he can be a big asset in San Diego.

Others: LHP Aaron Poreda (1-2, 3.83 ERA, 54 IP, 64 BB, 47 K) has arguably the best stuff of any pitcher in Portland, he also has the least control. Thought is always that if he can ever come close to spotting his pitches he can be a #2 MLB starter or a top 5 MLB closer. But the chances of that are getting less and less likely. Mike DeMark struggled early in Portland but became one of the Beaver’s best pitchers with a 2.89 ERA, 18.2 IP, 19 K post all star break. Bryan Oland has great stuff but is often lost in such a deep pen. Finally Sam Deduno is old for the PCL at 27, but has averaged 10 K/9 and has 2 legit strikeout pitches. He will probably be the long man in the pen, and has another opportunity to shine and hopefully get back to the majors.

During the current offseason Jed Hoyer went out and acquired Jorge Cantu, Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, and Cameron Maybin. While it might be difficult to look at those moves and see it directly correlating to San Antonio, it surprisingly does. With the acquisition of Maybin the Padres opening day outfield became virtually set. This means that players like Aaron (Richie) Cunningham, Luis Durango, Mike Baxter, and Cedric Hunter, who would all be vying for a spot or two on the Padres, will now more than likely start the year in Tucson. Well if they are starting in Tucson then other prospects like Blake Tekotte and Sawyer Carroll will undoubtedly end up remaining in San Antonio. The same can be said for Drew “Sparkplug” Cumberland (blocked by Cabrera in Tucson), Anthony Rizzo, and possibly Matt Clark (blocked by Blanks, though I still figure him to be in AAA as the DH). What all this means for fans of the Missions is that that the Missions get to keep some of the better pieces from last year and include a few more lynchpins. To put it into other words this team will have insane depth, and will be interesting to see who gets playing time.

Lineup:

1) Drew Cumberland: SS (A+/AA .350/.385/.505 18 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 21 SB, in 75 G). There is so much that can be said about Drew. He is an incredibly gifted athlete, and many people can see him being a MLB starter for years to come. That is if he can stay healthy. The good news is that all the injuries have been freak injuries. The latest of which was a fractured left patella that he suffered while sliding into the railing chasing after a foul ball. He is 100% and if healthy should very easily score 100+ runs this year. Drew is an excellent contact hitter who has a tremendous ability to hit to all side of the field and put nearly everything he swings at in play. That being said the Padres would like to see him work the count more and draw a few more walks (56 walks last 2 seasons combined). Drew might still be converted to 2B or CF, but I don’t see it happening this year. He will get some PT at 2nd with Beemer Weems or Parrino at SS, but look for him to remain as the primary SS for most of the season.
2) Dan Robertson: RF (A+ .300/.375/.418 27 2B, 9 3B, 95 RS, 59 BB, 52 K, 30 SB). The Padres had the “prototypical” #2 hitter in Cole Figueroa but sadly he was traded in the Bartlett deal. In scoping out all the other possible starters Dan is really the only other player that fits into the #2 hitter type role (great contact, fairly high average, some speed). Of course there is a good chance that Robertson will be splitting time with Carroll (or Kulbacki?) but for right now I will pencil him in as the starting RF and #2 hitter. Robertson is the little engine that could. A late round draft pick that wasn’t supposed to do much in the minors, Dan has excelled at every location he has been at. This might be the year that his numbers take a hit, but he has the eye, speed, and knowledge to put up decent numbers even during a down year.
3) Jaff Decker: LF (A+, .262/.374/.500 14 2B, 17 HR, 5 SB in 79 G). Jaff was ranked as a top 50 MLB prospect by Keith Law, and is a top 5 Padre prospect in any remotely competent experts rankings *cough Canepa cough*. Like many Padre fans I am sick and tired of the “sure he is one of the best pure hitters in all of the minors, but look he is overweight,” comments. Jaff played a majority of his rookie year in CF before going over to LF. And even that was mainly due to being surrounded by the likes of Tekotte, Robertson, and Carroll. Decker has lost a lot of the weight anyway so it should be a moot point, but wow can he hit. Decker finally started to “heat up” in August before being injured again. His numbers? An otherworldly .360/.492/.860 with 8 HR, 18 RS, 25 RBI, 11 BB, 13 K in 14 games in August. Yes, he is that good. For a kid who isn’t even legally allowed to go to a bar (turns 21 on 2/23), Jaff deserves some respect.
4) Anthony Rizzo: 1B (AA, .263/.334/.481 30 2B, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 100 K in 107 G). Speaking of top 50 prospects, the Missions get to go back 2 back with Decker and Rizzo. Rizzo came in at 38 (8 ahead of Decker) and deserves the ranking. Rizzo is a plus fielding, power hitting 1B. What is even more impressive is that Rizzo is only 21, which means he has a lot of room to grow. He might see a deflation of numbers going to the Wolff, but he has power that will travel anywhere, and will have protection up and down the lineup. His R/L splits and K numbers need to improve but he has an incredible ceiling, and should be in SD before too long. Rizzo could begin the season in AAA, but with Blanks starting every day and Matt Clark also vying for AAA Abs I see Rizzo in SA.
5) Vince Belnome: 3B (A+, .273/.397/.436 31 2B, 16 HR, 84 RBI, 102 BB, 136 K). Belnome has hit everywhere he has played, and it is hard to believe that will change too much next year. Belnome doesn’t have the raw power that is ideal out of a 3B, and was a 2B for most of college, but with a surplus of middle infielders (now minus 1 with Cole gone), and no real 3B, Belnome picked up the slack and has done a great job at being one of the most consistent members of the Padres minors. The numbers speak for themselves. Pretty good BA, moderate power, and huge BB and K numbers.
6) Blake Tekotte: CF (A+/AA, .276/ .367/.478 25 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR, 62 BB, 108 K, 28 SB, 17 CS). Tekotte could find himself batting 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th or 7th but for the purposes of this I think 6th fits pretty well. Ideally, Tekotte would be a great #2 hitter. He has a crisp line drive swing, which allows him to either hit it in the gaps or over the wall. He has the speed to take the extra base and turn routine 2B into 3B. The biggest problem thus far is that Tekotte will get “homer happy” which alters his swing and causes an influx in strikeouts. Its something Randy Smith, Tekotte, and pretty much everyone in SA knows about and is the one thing keeping him back from being an elite prospect. Defensively, Tekotte is one of the best pure CF in the Padres system. He has a + arm, great speed and an above average first step. Tekotte has already gotten a taste of hitting at Wolff field, so hopefully 2011 is the year we see him put it all together.
7) Cody Decker: DH (.270/.352/.513 35 2B, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 60 BB, 135 K). AZL MVP 2 years ago, jumped to Lake Elsinore where he led the organization in HR. It is hard to ask for more out of the just turned 24 year old. However, Decker will find it challenging to find playing time this year. Decker is one of the few Missions to hit lefties well (.285/.376/.628 last year) and that should give him an “in” if Rizzo continues to struggle off of them. Decker has tremendous power, but similar to Matt Clark last year, has a hole in his swing that causes a lot of K’s. Clark was able to respond by leading the Missions in HR last year. Hopefully Decker can put up a Clark-esque season.
8 ) Robert Lara; C (A+, .279/.369/.419 12 2B, 8 HR, 38 BB, 55 K in 75 G). Lara is one of those players that doesn’t do anything exceptional, but does everything right. He hits for a respectable average, has some pop, and calls a good game behind the plate. He is also a fairly gifted pitcher. Every blow out, Lara would be the position player willing to pitch an inning to save the pen. His #’s? 3.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. Awesome! Lara will split time once again, however the other C could be any number of players. We could see Canham, Collins, Zornes, or possibly even Luis Martinez depending on how AAA shakes out.
9) Andy Parrino: 2B (AA, .246/.363/.415 28 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 68 BB, 115 K) The one spot in the lineup the Padres do not really have a “stud” is at 2nd. Over the last 12 months the Padres have traded away 2 top 2B in Sogard and Figueroa, and released another in Antonelli. While David Eckstein and now Orlando Hudson has been able to hide the holes left in that area. The one spot it will be noticeable is in SA. Parrino is a solid 2B, who fits in more as a super utility player than as an actual starter. That didn’t stop him from putting up pretty good numbers last year in SA. Look for Parrino to once again bounce around the diamond, and see him share 2B with Cumberland (Weems at SS).

Others: If the lineup itself wasn’t fun enough how about an insanely deep bench. First off, I am in the dark as to what is going on with Kellen Kulbacki. The one thing I do know is that when healthy the dude can hit better than anyone I have ever seen in a Padre uniform not named Gwynn or Gonzalez (possibly Decker). I am still a believer, but those of us are becoming few and far between. Allen Dykstra is a former 1st round pick who is now blocked by both Rizzo and Cody Decker. He could be riding the bench in AA, in Elsinore (again) or find himself released. Beemer Weems was drafted as “amazing glove, no bat” then hit .253/.401/.353 in Lake Elsinore in 2009. He was injured for most of 2010, but has a good enough eye and fantastic glove at short. Sawyer Carroll is 1 year removed from being a NWL all star, and all star MVP, and also hitting .300 in 3 separate leagues. However after a disappointing 2010 and a crowed OF, he could find himself struggling for PT. Also it has to be noted that San Antonio is the first level where the pitchers have to bat. The DH is only in effect about 50% of the time, which means that there is even less room in the lineup.

Looking at the lineup, the Missions have all the makings for a fantastic 2011 season. While it might be unrealistic for anyone to expect them to replicate their 2010 numbers, this Missions team is incredibly talented and many of them will have a future in the majors. Provided key players on both side don’t suffer long injuries, 2011 should see another championship for the Missions.

Starting Pitching:
Casey Kelly: RHP (AA, 3-5, 5.31 ERA, 95 IP, 118 H, 10 HR, 35 BB, 81 K). There is no doubt that the stats put up by Kelly last year were not stats expected out of the #1 Padre prospect, and top 30 MLB prospect. However, like many stats in baseball, you can take these numbers with a grain of salt. Not only was Kelly one of the youngest players in AA but he was also transitioning to his first full year of pitching. Kelly already has 2 MLB quality pitches in his mid 90’s FB and change. His curveball will eventually be a plus pitch, giving him 3 above average MLB pitches. Kelly’s move to the NL might have been a best of both worlds as he will have the opportunity to hit in both AA and AAA. Kelly might challenge for a rotation spot with the Padres in 2012 but for right now he should be the Missions opening day starter.

Anthony Bass: RHP (A+, 8-7, 3.13 ERA, 132.1 IP, 124 H, 9 HR, 20 BB, 109 K). Bass has the type of hard work and dedication that makes him an easy guy to root for, and makes every coach wish he had 24 other Anthony Bass’s. Bass does not have any overpowering pitches, but has tremendous control (a ridiculous 1.36 BB/9), and has a deceptive delivery that causes swings and misses. Bass may not have the projection of almost any of the other starters, but with his control and ability to get consistent outs, he will find himself in a Padre uniform sooner rather than later.

Juan Oramas: LHP (A+, 7-3, 3.00 ERA, 84 IP, 64 H, 10 HR, 26 BB, 90 K). No one really knew what to expect out of the 2009 Mexican League ERA champ. Well before the pen could even hit the paper to write a report on Oramas, he came within 2 outs of a perfect game with Lake Elsinore. While he started the year in Fort Wayne, Oramas was the Storms most dominating and consistent starter. Oramas is actually 7 months younger than Kelly, and 3 months younger than Jaff Decker, thus making him the youngest 2011 Mission. Oramas has a solid low 90’s FB and is able to compliment it with one of the best curves in the system. Oramas is tenacious on the mound and is not afraid to pitch inside. Despite the age difference Oramas has the maturity, work ethic, stuff, and undoubtedly huevos to succeed in San Antonio.

Jeremy McBryde RHP (A+, 4-4, 4.38 ERA, 63.2 IP, 62 H, 17 BB, 49 K). Stupid injuries. Last year I went with the bold prediction and put McBryde in my top 10 prospect list. While I wasn’t proved wrong, Jeremy missing most of the season due to injuries didn’t help. Before an injury derailed 2009 McBryde was working on great numbers in the Cal League (3.44 ERA, .218 BAA, 9.68 K/9). McBryde will have another opportunity in 2011 and despite missing more than an entire year due to injuries, at only 23 years of age McBryde is far from old for AA. McBryde has one of the heaviest sinkers in the system, and being able to locate it in the low 90’s makes it a true plus pitch. For McBryde it is just about getting healthy, stay healthy, and performing to the level we all know he is capable of.

So many names so little spots. Erik Davis once again led the Padres minor league system in wins in 2010 going 14-3. However there is a great chance he starts the year in AAA. Despite being kicked out of the Tin Cap rotation in 2009 and being subjugated to long relief for the Storm in 2010, Rob Musgrave led the team in K’s (113). Not only did Musgrave have a 10.38 K/9 but also allowed only 27 BB in 99 IP. Musgrave might be subjugated to the pen once again, but it chomping at the bit and proving he is earning the opportunity again. Jorge Reyes has the tools to be a top prospect but has shown it at times but has not put everything together just yet. He might be the most likely choice but could also end up in Elsinore to begin the season. Then there is former #1 pick Nick Schmidt. Could the Padres really effectively wipe the slate clean of 4 1st round picks this year? Antonelli was let go and signed by the Nats, Carrillo is gone, Rizzo will start over Dykstra at 1st, and Schmidt really doesn’t deserve the 5th starter spot over any of the above pitchers. Schmidt still has the stuff to be dominating, but at 25 years of age, and virtually no command shown post surgery, the time is running out.

Bullpen:
Closer: Brad Brach (A+, 5-2, 2.47 ERA, 41 SV, 65.2 IP, 50 H, 11 BB, 74 K). As easy as it was to write Kelly’s name as the top pitcher, it is even easier to write in Brach’s name as the closer. Brach broke the saves record in the Cal League and is one of the more dominant closers in the minors. Brach pitches quickly, pounds the corners and has a FB that creeps up to 94 mph. For Brach to ever be considered a future MLB pitcher he will need to work on his splitter/change and not get too fastball happy.
Setup: Nick Vincent RHP (A+, 4-0, 1.87 ERA, 81.2 IP, 60 H, 23 BB, 76 K) and Rob Musgrave LHP (if he isn’t the 5th starter, 4-4, 2.48 ERA, 98 IP, 91 H, 27 BB, 113 K in A+).
Others: Along with the starting rotation rejects you will probably see Zach Herr LHP (A+, 4-2, 3.04 ERA) Colt Hynes, Eric Gonzalez (if he is not released), and Aaron Breit. Also last years beloved ST prospect Alexis Lara has a good chance of remaining in SA. If he does we can see him anywhere from long man to 8th inning in a 1 run game. Lara as most of us know has tremendous stuff but has difficulties with control.

All in all the rotation and bullpen should be a strength for the Missions. Even better is that should 1 or 2 of the pitchers go down with injuries the Missions have tremendous depth at both SP and reliever. Giving a spot start to Reyes/Schmidt/Musgrave/calling up Lollis >>>>> Tyler Lumsden (who was 4-8 with more BB (34) than K (33) in 91 IP for SA last year).

Up next will be the offense that will see a surplus of returning top prospects as Portland will have former Padres (Evereth, Blanks, Richie Cunningham) blocking them.