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Breaking Down Matt Eddy’s chat

February 28, 2009 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting with 13 Comments

by Ben Davey

So Baseball America’s Matt Eddy sat down for an interview with Madfriars’ John Coniff.  John asked some  good questions and helped show some flaws:

The big question that so many of our fans have is that many Padres’ fans believed the team was starting to turn the corner under the Grady Fuson, Baseball America had them ranked #12 last year, but this year they are #29. Has the system really taken a step that far back?

Matt Eddy: Yes, the biggest difference is the graduation of Chase Headley. Mainly just a few bad drafts combined with this year’s first-round draft pick getting his bonus reduced because of injury concerns, and it’s not good. Throw that in with a few guys that struggled in Triple-A, Matt Antonelli and Wade LeBlanc, and it was a tough year. Although there were some highlights at the upper levels, such as solid years by Will Venable and Josh Geer, all and all just not enough of the top prospects put together good years. The organizational rankings are difficult and to some extent are reflective of how the big club performs.

My Response:  This isn’t a surprise, we knew the ranking would go down.  Headley was one of the top 30 prospects in baseball last year so losing him was going to be a hit.  Combine that with Antonelli and Leblanc struggling and Latos and Cumberland missing half the year and it did not help the rankings.  The thing that I keep on seeing is that they lowered their rankings of the Padres because Dykstra signed for less money because of his back.  All medical reports said he was perfectly fine (there was not one conflicting medical report), the Padres are just cheap.  The Padres had a bad 2004 draft, but have been solid since then.  I figured we would have gotten credit for a good 08′ draft and would end up 18-22 in the rankings.

What do you see the Padres organizations greatest strength and weakness is?

Matt Eddy: They have built a lot of depth with mid-range ceiling college prospects and I think they have some strength up the middle with prospects such as [Cedric] Hunter, Antonelli, [Eric] Sogard and [Drew] Cumberland. Beyond Mat Latos there is a pretty significant drop-off in power arms. Maybe you could make an argument for Wynn Pelzer and Simon Castro, but it’s tough.

Ben: This just conforms to the popular opinion (which I can’t argue with), that the Padres have a lot of depth, and a lot of players who “could” become major league players, BUT not much in the upper echelon of prospects.

You have both James Darnell and Logan Forsythe ticketed to Lake Elsinore, but both are playing third base. Do you see one of them moving?

Matt Eddy: Good question. They drafted Forsythe higher so he could be in High A – but you know it is tough to say.

Ben: Every report I have read is higher on Darnell.  Darnell is also the most likely to change positions if need be.  I think at least for the 09′ season you will see both at 3B.  My thought would be Darnell would be in Lake Elsinore and Forsythe in Fort Wayne (at least to start the year).

On your CF depth chart you had Brad Chalk and Danny Payne listed above Drew Macias. After the season the first two had, especially Payne who was injured for most of the year, you really liked both of them more?

Matt Eddy: With Payne and Chalk, a lot of it was where they were drafted and some of the guys around the office were big Payne fans and there is always kind of a luster with some of the new guys. Macias repeating a league a few times didn’t help either.

Ben: Macias was also voted as the top defensive prospect.  Is it just me or does it seem like Eddy looks at what round they were drafted in and that determines where they rank.  While I disagree that Payne/Chalk should be higher then Macias, I understand that he is “the expert.”  What I do disagree with his HOW he did it: “a lot of it was where they were drafted and that people were big Payne fans…”  Ummmm….. so you are telling me that your rankings have little to do with how they play, stats, or D; but rather a look at when they were drafted and how big of fans your friends are of them?  Nice way to show you are the “expert.”

If the Padres minor league system ranked first in on-base percentage, second in runs scored and fourth in slugging percentage, how do it rank 29th out of 30 teams?

Matt Eddy: [laughs] Good question. Part of it is the friendly hitting environments in Eugene and Lake Elsinore. The reason is they have drafted so many college guys they tend to be a little older than the competition. They were ranked near the top in many leagues by player’s ages.

Ben: Here is Lake Elsinore, Fort Wayne, and Eugene’s average age compared to the team that won the league.  High A:  Storm’s average age was 22.8.  San Jose won and was 23.5, Lancaster was 23.0 (min 12 G (batters) or 10 IP).  So the Storm were younger than the first or second team (and both the Red Sox and Giants have one of the top systems).  Fort Wayne was at 22, Clinton was at 21.5.  Salem-Keizer averaged 22.1 years old Eugene Ems averaged 21.3 years old.  So I don’t think “age” is really a factor.  What exactly is wrong with a hitter friendly park?  Yes, it might mean that the hitting stats are not as great, but it also means the pitching isn’t as bad, so I think they off set.  Again, they might not be youngest team, but they clearly aren’t the oldest, and thus this argument can’t really be used against the Padres.

Could you clarify if Baseball America uses a five tool approach or a 1 (hitting) + four approach. I could be wrong, but I think they equate “tools” speed and throwing, with hitting. That is why so many of our prospects are underrated by them.

Matt Eddy: We do weigh tools higher, but we don’t negate performance. What we may be guilty is of overrating younger guys and underrating older guys that repeat, such as Drew Macias.

Ben: Well, I guess that answers that.  It’s interesting though that most of the “top” Padre prospects were drafted in the last few drafts.  People like Kulbacki, Decker, Portillo, Antonelli, Sogard, etc… all drafted (signed) in the past couple drafts.  I know he means that they tend to give more credit/hype to “toolsy” high school players, but the funny thing is a lot of them don’t pan out.

Has the Padres drafting of “pitchability” pitchers hurt San Diego in developing top of the rotation pitchers?

Matt Eddy: Yes, and you really need to look no further than Jake Peavy and then compare him to more polished college guys like Wade LeBlanc and Josh Geer. Throw in the fact that many of their top minor league guys like Justin Germano and Dennis Tankersly flamed out.

Ben: Can’t argue that it has hurt the Padres.  Leblanc, Geer, and Ramos were all “safe picks” — they weren’t bad and they will all probably end up helping the MLB team, but no “ace” material.  I agree on Tank, but was Germano ever a “top minor league prospect?”

Matt, have you seen Kyle Blanks swing the bat? If so, what are you impressed with and what can he work on? Keith Law mentioned that Blanks doesn’t put his lower body into his swing. How many home runs would he have if he did that consistently?

Matt Eddy: No, I haven’t seen him in person. If you read the scouting report that is really what we ding him on too, a hands hitter. He’s somewhat resistant to pulling the ball and changing his approach, but I think if he could adapt he is capable of hitting around 30 home runs a year.

Ben:  How do you cover the Padres and NOT see their top (or top 3) prospect play?  In my lifetime I have seen three minor league games in person and I have seen Blanks play (Lake Elsinore two years ago).  How do you make the scouting report if you haven’t seen him hit?

How much has stock fallen on Antonelli? And do they think that Anton can still get back up to his former elite status?

Matt Eddy: There is a good chance he will approach that status because he is smart and athletic, and will be able to maintain a consistency of performance. It’s hard to say why he struggled, the problem was never really diagnosed, and he did break out a little in August. If he sticks with the same approach, I think he could become an average MLB player.

Ben: So, basically he expects Antonelli to regain his status and at the very least be a solid MLB player…Ahhh, I see why they are so down on Antonelli now (sarcasm). By the way, he just singled on a full count, eight pitch AB, as I am writing this.

What about Kellen Kulbacki do you not like? I understand that his defense is a bit of a question, but was surprised that his hitting ability alone didn’t have him ranked higher.

Matt Eddy: We had him #4 and you can make a case for Blanks, Decker or him as the top hitter. Kulbacki had three good months, but I would have liked to have seen it for a little longer.

Ben: Thanks for NOT answering my question (I asked John to ask this; this one about Anton and the next two).  You would have liked him to stay healthy…ok, but it didn’t seem like injury concerns were the big problem for the ranking.  No addressing of his defense or anything else.. GRRRR

What did you think about the Padres 2008 draft? Of the draft picks who do you think has the best chance of being a big contributor at the big league level? Was Robertson a flash in the pan, or is he for real?

Matt Eddy: It’s hard to argue with the pick of Dykstra because of his power numbers, but where do you play him? You have Blanks and Gonzalez already there. Decker is a fantastic pick, first round talent; he just doesn’t look like it. With regards to Robertson he is someone that could make us look bad. He’s just someone that is an all out player that has shown he could do it, a very unconventional player that is very tough to evaluate against future and better competition. [Cole] Figueroa was a good pick and even [Beamer] Weems and Adam Zornes helps the team’s defense.

Ben: Okay, now you are just contradicting yourself.  Earlier you mentioned one of the reason that the Padres were ranked 29th is because of the 1st round of the 2008 draft.  The reason was the “injury.”  Now you are praising Dykstra, but wondering about where he will fit in in San Diego.  I didn’t know MLB players blocking a prospect has an impact on rankings.  Wait, you love the Decker pick?  I love it too, but why doesn’t that have an effect on the rankings.  I’ll give you  a pass on Robertson, I have no idea what he will end up being either.  It seems to me that you really liked the Padres 2008 draft…  Did I miss something or doesn’t that mean that the Padres don’t have the 29th best farm system?

Hunter led ALL of MiLB in hits last year, Robertson broke a league record in hits, three of the Storm were named to Topps All High-A team, Decker and Robertson were named league MVP, Blanks was on the All Double-A team, and that’s not even factoring in a lot of other prospects….why were they 29th out of 30 teams? (This was the last one)

Matt Eddy: What is interesting with Hunter, when the minor league season ended, he had more hits than anyone, including those on the major level. As I said earlier, there were just too many prime guys that took a step backward combined with too many old guys; but Hunter is the exception to that.

Ben: You liked Hunter for how well he did, shouldn’t that partially make up for maybe a struggling Antonelli?  Especially considering that he was a HS draftee (so age helps), was a top prospect the year before (before his bad Fort Wayne season), and led ALL of minor leagues in an offensive category.


Feel free to disagree with me, but it looks like he contradicts himself.  When a team is ranked next to last in terms of minor league farm systems you would expect more negatives then positives about the system. However, the only negative things that I saw where: 1) Headley (#1 prospect in 08′) graduated,  2) Anton and Leblanc had a bad year, Latos was injured,  3) Dykstra signed for less money, 4) Low Ceiling talent.  However, he expects 1) Anton to rebound (and when they expect someone to rebound they don’t mark them down as much), 2) said that Dykstra and Decker were great picks by the Padres, 3) was high on last years top five prospect Cedric Hunter,  4) said that Decker, Kulbacki and Blanks can all be considered the best hitter in the system (and since Blanks is basically proven, this shows that they must be high on Kulbacki and Decker), tried to use age as an issue for ranking them low, but he was wrong, 6) admits to not seeing one of the Padres top prospects playing.  I am by no indication saying that the Padres should be top 5, top 10, heck not even top 15.  I figured they would slot in somewhere between 18-22.  So seeing a ranking of 29, followed by the inability to back up the ranking (without looking foolish), and you have an agitated blogger hoping that the Padres farm system makes Matt Eddy eat his crow.

Strasburg’s first start

February 22, 2009 in Ben Davey, college baseball, prospects, Stephen Strasburg with 8 Comments

By Ben Davey

The Aztecs kicked off their season last night with a win 6-3 over Bethune Cookman. I decided to listen to the game and chart the pitch selection of one Stephen Strasburg (Elstron was announcing a majority of the pitches and would say either fastball or breaking ball, so I managed to record about 90% of pitch selection).

Strasburg’s line: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HBP, 1 WP, 103 pitches

He only had two 1,2,3 innings (2nd and 4th).

He threw four different pitches in the start, two of them fastballs (four seamer (mainly) and added a two seamer this year), as well as a slider (more of a cutter) and a breaking ball (curve).  The two seamer sat in the low 90′s (91-94), while the four seamer hit 98 on the gun (generally 94-96, topped out at 98).  The slider had some serious bite, but it seemed like he had a lot of problems locating it and had to rely mainly on the FB.

74% of the pitches he threw in the game were fastballs, and of the 24 batters he faced only four of them were started off with anything other then the fastball.

Of the batters he did throw a first pitch FB to, 80% of them started the count down 0-1 (or were out on the 1st pitch).  In fact, of the few batters that did start 1-0, NONE of them worked the count to 2-0.
7 of his 11 K’s came via the fastball, however three of his last four K’s came via offspeed pitches (curve and slider).

The outfielders could have taken the day off.  Only two outs (the very first out of the game and the last out of the 5th) came via a fly ball, the rest were all grounders.  Of those four grounders, all but one of them were hit to the right side (second out in the second went 6-3).

The result:  Strasburg was clearly the most dominant pitcher in baseball last year, and showed why in this game.  In the first start of the season you do not expect the ace to be perfect, but he was right up there (The run that scored got into scoring position via a PB, but it could have been a WP; that was why it was unearned).  He does need to work on spotting his curve, and could probably throw the two seamer more often because it can result in earlier outs to conserve his pitch count.  Overall, though, Strasburg was dominant, and I would be amazed if he fell to us at #3.  But keep your fingers crossed, anyway.

Steroids and performance

February 12, 2009 in Ben Davey with 3 Comments

by Ben Davey

After the ARod (or ARoid) bombshell, I have seen a lot of people saying that MLB should just throw out the stats from the last 20 years.  Just assume that EVERYONE is roiding.  While I think it is safe to say that over the past decades quite a few MLB players did take steroids, I don’t believe it is safe to say that EVERYONE was using them.  That got me thinking, though…how exactly does steroids help?  I think it’s obvious that steroids give you more muscle mass (“bulk up”), which allows you to hit the ball harder and farther.  As a result, the HR numbers will increase and more than likely the extra base hits increase as well.

But does steroids really help the batting average?  Hitting a baseball is thee HARDEST thing to do in sports.  If you can get a hit 30% of the time you are considered excellent.  40% and you are in the HOF.  Yes, by definition, if the number of extra base hits goes up, chances are the batting average is going up too.  But by how much?  Let’s say Nick Hundley on a normal season would hit 15 HR with a .240 BA.  If his HR numbers (due to steroids) goes up to 25 HR, would we expect his BA to increase at nearly the same increment?  Maybe even half as much would still put him at a .320 clip.

So I figured that if we knew when a player took steroids, we could determine if it really helped.  Thank you Arod for saying that you “only” did steroids for the 3 years you were in Texas.  So I thought, let’s do the two years prior and the two years after and see how it helped.  I looked at Batting average, then also SB and extra base hits.  *Note (AGAIN) this is assuming that he ONLY used it in those 3 years in Texas.

A-Rod Batting average Steals XBH
2 years before .301 18 72
3 years during .305 15 85
2 years after .303 25 70

Looking at the numbers (with out even adjusting for park factors), it looks like Batting average is independent of roids.  If you include the park factor, he actually hit for a higher average in Seattle (which had a 2 year average of 95) compared to Tex (106).  His SB also went down, so my second thought that steroids gave players more speed which would allow them to steal more bases, was incorrect.  What was the only thing that did go up….Extra base hits.

Look at Brady Anderson.  No way he didn’t use steroids in 1996 when he hit 50 HR, he had 92 extra base hits that year and hit .297 with 21 SB.  The year before 59 extra base hits, .262 ave, 26 SB.  The year after 64 EBH, .288 avg, 18 SB.

In Big Mac’s 1998 season: 70 HR, .299 BA.  The 3 years leading up to it .280, .312 and ..274.  Next 3: .278/.305/.187.  Obviously that .187 was the last year Mac played (less than 100 GP) .  But compared to the years before and after it is hard to say that .299 really stands out.  (Of course we don’t know how long Mac took the steroids, so all 7 of those years he could have been on them, but that still shows how different BA can be from year to year).

While the power numbers that these guys had all went up, nothing else really changed (RS and RBI have more to do with the team then the individual, so I didn’t look at them).  I know it is a small sample size, but I think it is interesting to see that juicing really only helps the power game.  At the height of their steroid usage, no one was even close to getting a hit 35% of the time.

Welcome to the 2009 Lake Elsinore Storm (part 1)

February 8, 2009 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

by Ben Davey

This is the 3rd in the 4 part minor league series getting everyone ready for the 2009 minor league season.  *Note there are only 4 minor league teams in April (Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore, and Fort Wayne).  Eugene, Peoria, and DSL all open up in June/July.  The further you go down in the system, the harder it becomes to project who will be starting at every position.  In fact, as of right now, I dont think the Padres know exactly who will be at Lake Elsinore, but just like them….we have a good idea.  So let’s again start with players that I am almost positive will start for the Storm (position wise):

SS (and probably leadoff hitter), Drew Cumberland-
Cumberland is probably the Padres best shortstop prospect.  And in comparing to past Padres is nearly the exact opposite of Khalil (offensively).  In 319 professional at bats he has struck out only 36 times, which is pretty incredible for an 19 year old kid (just turned 20 a couple weeks ago).  Also is incredibly fast and hits for a high average.  Do not be surprised to see him hit over .320 next year in hitter friendly Lake Elsinore.  Cumberland does have a few faults, as he only has 1 HR in all of the minors (very little power), he has was also injured for most of the 2nd half last year.  (He probably could have come back but Fuson decided not to rush him).  Also defensively has quick feet, but only an average arm (some say below average but I beg to differ).  I think he will be fine defensively, just needs more games.  IF he stays healthy next year, look for him to be the leadoff man, steal 30+ bases and have 100+ RS, to lead the attack of the Storm.

2B- Lance Zawadski
The interesting thing is that Zawadski is viewed as having the strongest arm in the system (By BA), and yet with Cumberland at short will end up being the 2B in Lake Elsinore (probably see some time at short, and DH as Parrino will also get starts at 2B).  Zawadski is a bit old compared to Cumberland (23 last year) but, in the wake of Drew’s injury, stepped in amazingly at the shortstop role.  Hit .273/.352/.399/.751 with 28 SB (3 CS) in the VERY tough Midwest league. Did have over 100 strike outs though (which will be something he needs to work on). In addition, led the team with 32 errors.  He might have a cannon for an arm, but definitely has some things to work on to lower the amount of errors.  Look for Zawaski to also hit closer to .300 in the much friendlier Cal League.
*Others to note; Beamer Weems (probably the best defensive 2b/SS in the system ) and Adrew Parrino will also probably appear on the roster*

And that is all the 100% sure of starters in the system (Yes only 2 of 8).  From here on out it is closer to an educated guess and based on hints from management and madfriars.com.

1B- Alan Dykstra (75% sure)
Dykstra was the 2008 1st round draft pick.  75% sure because there is a 25% chance he starts in AA.  He was “the man” at Wake Forest leading the team in power, and virtually every offensive category.  Very patient from the plate, and looks like THE HULK.  Saw him at the Storm game last year and he towered over the entire team (only 6’5″ 240 lb).  In only 24 AB in LE last year hit .292/.469/.458/.927.  Look for him to hit cleanup and be one of the biggest sources of power for the Storm.

25% Felix Carrasco.  Led Fort Wayne last year in HR with 16 (only person above 10), won the MidWest League HR derby.  But it seems management soured on him. His power numbers all but vanished in the 2nd half (13 2B 12 HR to 3 2B, 4 HR in 2nd half), also struck out 162 times in one year.  He has the power but his .237 average with the strike outs is going to make it hard for this Dominican import to ever become a great prospect.

RF- Sawyer Carroll (65%)
The OF for Lake Elsinore is a complete mess.  Most of the OF from the 2007 draft (not named Kellen Kulbacki) struggled or were injured in 2008.  While at the same time Sawyer Carroll, Blake Tekotte, Dan Robertson, and Jaff Decker had amazing 2008 campaigns, so the popular belief is that at least one of them will (pretty much) skip Fort Wayne and go straight to Lake Elsinore.  My guess is that Carroll will be that guy (if there is only one).  Despite spending the final 3 weeks in Fort Wayne, Carroll still led the Emeralds in HR (8), he was also 3rd on the team in 2B, and in players with 80 or more AB (sorry Darnell), Sawyer led the team with a .951 OPS (.299/.403/.548).  He was selected in the 3rd round of the 08′ draft, and his age (22) might be one of the bigger reasons why he makes it over Decker (18).  Carroll plays a solid RF with a good arm (has a 3B arm) and pretty good speed for a corner OF.  He is a fun player to watch, and shows a lot of heart out on the field.

Danny Payne (25%), Payne was selected in the supplemental 1st round (64th overall) of the 2007 draft.  After being drafted, hit .279/.444/.355/.799 with 17 SB and as many BB as K in Eugene.  Plays an above average RF (one of the top Padre defenders), and has tremendous speed on the basepaths.  08′ he was destroyed by leg injuries and in 39 games only hit .172/.342/.227/.569.  He has a lot of potential but needs to stay healthy.  Carroll passed him on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean a healthy and solid 2009 can’t put Payne back on the map. He was named most improved player at the Padres Instructional Leagues and if he doesn’t start at RF might start in LF or CF

3B- James Darnell (60%)
Was a last minute signing last year and thus only got into a couple games in Eugene and he did not disappoint (.373/.462/.582/1.044).  Like Dykstra, has great power, and is a very patient hitter offensively. Obviously he will not hit .373 over 500 AB, but hit .315 in his last 2 years at South Carolina, and .280-.305 is probably more accurate for Darnell.  He looks good at 3B, but there have been talks that he will move to either C or LF.  With Logan Forsythe also an above average 3B from the 2008 draft, Darnell will probably skip Fort Wayne, but don’t rule out a move in the next year.

Justin Baum (40%)
Baum is a former classmate of mine at Grossmont High School, so I am slightly biased towards him getting more PT.  Baum flew WAY under the radar last year and didn’t get any publicity at Fort Wayne.  And yet he led the team in both RBI (70) and RS (76), also 2nd on the team with 9 HR.  Baum is a great guy (and also recently engaged), so I am excited to cheer him on next year in Lake Elsinore.  Probably the biggest thing to put him on the radar is to improve on his defense.  He was 2nd worst on the team with 30 errors (ouch), but a year older and playing with Dykstra at 1st (solid defender) vs Carrasco (not a solid defender) should cut down on some of those errors.  Also decreasing the strike out numbers (111 last year) will help.

The last 3 spots are completely up in the air, as I do not think there is even a favorite going into ST.  So good luck to Fuson…

LF/CF candidates:
Luis Durango (check the AA post for his info, might not make the AA team though)

Brad Chalk- 2nd rd 07′ draft, above average CF defense, good speed, pretty good average, good patient
hitter….no power whatsoever.  (512 AB, 26 2B, 5 3B, 0 HR)

Yefri Carvajal- Last year was a top 10 prospect.  Thought of as a 5 tool player but didn’t play like it last
year.  .268/.305/.357/.662 4 SB, 100 K, 25 BB last year….ouch.  Only 19, might be in Ft Wayne again

Robert Perry- Broke on the scene last year as a 16th rd draft pick, but last year was a flop.  Another patient
hitter with good speed, but needs the power and offense to be there if he wants to start

Blake Tekotte- 3rd round 2008 draft.  Above average CF defense, power, speed, pretty solid patience and
average.  Was the instructs MVP “Tom Gamboa said. “His hustle, his defensive in centerfield, his batting,
his on-base percentage, stealing bases – he did everything.”” (from scout.com).  Probably see him in Fort
Wayne though starting in CF

Dan Robertson- 2008 NWL MVP, broke a league hit record (114), also had 20 SB while playing solid defense
in CF.  Good patience, solid contact hitter, reminds me a lot of Eric Owens.  Another guy who will more
likely start in Fort Wayne.

Jaff Decker- 2008 AZL MVP, .352/.523/.541/1.084, 1st rd pick last year.  Another strong CF, who despite
being 18 plays like he is 30.  Has tremendous upside (and is up there in rankings with Kulbacki and
Hunter).  Biggest down side is he looks like PMac but that won’t stop him succeeding in whatever league he
is at.

Catcher-
Luis Martinez is the favorite but when at the age of 23 you hit .223/.338/.298/.636 it’s hard to stay around, no matter what the defense looks like.  Chance Adam Zornes or even Emanual Qualies makes it, but Martinez is the favorite.

So here is the projected lineup

Drew Cumberland (SS)
Lance Zawadski (2B)
James Darnell (3B)
Alan Dykstra (1B)
Sawyer Carrol (RF)
Justin Baum (DH)
Danny Payne (LF)
Blake Tekotte (CF)
Luis Martinez (C)

Payne and Tekotte can play all 3 OF spots WAY above average.
It will be a fun year in Lake Elsinore.  Part 2 will be much shorter and will be on the rotation and bullpen

Padres Minor League Relievers

February 2, 2009 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

by Ben Davey

Often times the bullpen gets overlooked (outside of the closers role), however the Padres are the prime example of what a great bullpen vs. a horrible bullpen can do for a team.  In 05′-07′ the Padres had a sub 3.5 ERA from the bullpen every year.  They also limited the number of inherited runners scored to one of the best in the league (I have about 30% from my stats).  As a result the Padres played more then 162 games each one of those years (stupid game 163).  Then comes 08′ where the Padres had a 4.45 ERA and allowed nearly 50% of all inherited runners to score.  After seeing the difference Aki, Bell, Linebrink and Hoffman have made on a team (turning games into 6 inning games), the Padres seem on a mission to build a strong bullpen from within, and one of the biggest ways was to load up on pitchers with high potential (not just “strike throwers” who throw in the mid 80′s)  At least at one aspect of the minor leagues the Padres are near the top. That is in the bullpen.   As a result, they had some of the best pens in the minors (check out Fort Wayne’s pen).

Here are a few names to keep an eye out on during the 2009 season:

Michael Demark (08′- Elsinore/San Antonio)
In 2007 Demark went 2-1, 3.74 ERA; in 44 G in Lake Elsinore, in 53 IP, he struck out 70 hitters.  But because he also walked 30, the front office thought it best to have him repeat LE in 08′.  Well how does a 2.17 ERA sound in 49.2 IPto go along with 53 K, 19 BB, 35 H?  With pitchers that had 40+ IP in the hitter friendly Cal League, Demark was top 10 in almost every category, including being 2nd best in stranding 83% of inherited base runners on base.  If that wasn’t enough he got promoted to Tex in June and in 23.2 IP, gave up a measly 2 ER (0.76 ERA) 24 K, 5 BB.  He stranded an insane 91.3% of inherited runners.  (To put it in perspective, I believe the MLB average is about 65% and the Padres were just under 50% last year).

Demark is not what Padres fans are used to.  He throws anywhere from 90-94 and can top out at 96 mph.  He also has an above average slider that bites at the ankles (around 85-87 mph).  He has an unorthodox windup, that people call a “butterfly windup” (reaches for the sky), it is used to align himself, but also adds deception.  He was tied for 2nd in the Padres system in Holds (Heath Bell was #1, and Demark was tied with Oland for 2nd with 17).  He is working on his changeup (which is a work in progress) but as is is one of the best 8th inning guys in all of the minors.  He will be in either AA (maybe AAA) next year as the setup man (a role he loves BTW).  He is a competitive, and is very similar to Heath Bell (except for the weight).

Bryan Oland (Fort Wayne)
Speaking of top 8th inning guys, Bryan Oland was drafted last year by the Padres and in 07′ put up bad numbers in Peoria (6.30 ERA, in 16 games, 6 BB, 13 K in 20 IP).  So much so that the Padres didn’t even put him in Fort Wayne to begin the season (left him in Peoria for extended ST).  He finally got up to Fort Wayne and WOW.  44 G, 51 IP, 33 H, 8 BB, 64 K (yes a 6:1 K:BB ratio) – he went 4-1 with a 0.88 ERA.  A sub 1 WHIP, held batters to a 1.79ERA.

Again, not the normal Padre prospect.  Oland throws around 93-94 tops out around 95 mph on an above average fastball.  He also has an amazing split-finger pitch that sits in the 80′s.  He is basically a 2 pitch pitcher but is working on a slider and change (doesn’t throw them as a reliever with two really good pitches…). He is another guy that loves the 8th inning role, though has closer mentality whenever he takes the field.  It will be a big move going to the deserts of the Cal League, but will be interesting.

Jackson Quezada (Fort Wayne)
Due to how long he has been in the Padres system, he was added to the 40 man roster even though he spent all of last year in Fort Wanye (signed from the DR in 03′).  Led the Padres minor league in saves this year with 27.  In 59 G posted a 2.12 ERA, 63.2 IP, 42 H, 19 BB, 79 K, .180 BAA.  He also only gave up 1 HR the entire year.  In fact, aside from April (where he still only had a 3.75 ERA) his ERA went 1.76 (May), 1.42 (June), 1.93 (July), 2.25 (August).  That is pretty fantastic.

Jackson has an above average sinking fastball that sits in the low 90′s. The Padres also expect him to gain a few mph as his body fills out (only 22).  The biggest difference between last year (fringe prospect) and this year (top 30 Padre prospect on some peoples list) is the drastic improvement of his secondary pitches that he had been taught the previous 2 years (slider and change).  Look for his to continue to climb the ladder and big LE closer next year.

Greg Burke (San Antonio)
Sticking with closers, let’s go to the one with the most IP (84.1).  Interesting fact: not only was Burke undrafted, he was actually signed via a Padre tryout camp in 2006.  He tried to be a starter in Fort Wayne in 06′ then was moved to the pen in 07′.  Neither year put up any numbers to brag about.  Finally in 08′ he made it to San Antonio and his stock shot up.  In 59 G he had a 2.24 ERA, 23 Saves, 17 BB, 92 K.  For most of the year he had a sub 1 ERA, until a bad July curtailed that (all 3 of his BS). Still managed to post great numbers (aside from the 2-7 record, but a lot of the losses came from unearned runs).  Also went 1-1, 2.51 ERA with a save in the AFL.

Burke started the year throwing in the upper 80′s, but by the end of the year was throwing 91-94.  I will let you figure that one out, but the coach said it was due to intense workouts and conditioning.  Also throws a splitfinger and a slider.  His biggest problem is that he doesn’t really have an out pitch against lefties (who hit him reasonably well compared to righties).  His slider moves more like a cutter, and doesn’t have the dip that most pitchers use as their out pitch against LHB.  He will be the closer in Portland, so it will be interesting to see if this year was a fluke or if he has got the real deal.

Gabe Dehoyos (San Antonio)
Sticking with the Missions, let’s get to Gabe.  In 60 games last year he struck out an insane 110 batters (83 IP).  Went on to lead the team in holds with 15 while posting a 2.69 ERA.

Loves to throw up in the zone, and has a Chris Young esque fastball (it looks great and very hitable and yet he had 110 K off it).  Also like CY throws in the upper 80′s touching 90-91.  Best pitch is his cutter that he loves to throw.  However the difference this year is the huge strides that Bill Masse made with his breaking ball that became better than average.  Great downward movement on the hammer (12-6 breaking ball).  He was a free agent at the end of last season and I believe the Padres resigned him (not sure, though). I also believe he was signed as a minor league FA last year (I know he was with the Royals in 07′).   Biggest problem is age as Dehoyos was 28 last year.  If he was resigned he will at the very least be knocking on the door to San Diego.

Evan Scribner (Lake Elsinore)
Speaking of players who were not in the Padres system in 07′, Scribner was acquired from the D*Backs for old man river err… Tony Clark.  For the Padres system this year he went 2-1, 2.70 ERA, 20 G, 1 SV, 23.1 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 31 K (yes a 10:1 K:BB).  Overall, between two High A organizations and AA (23 G) he went 4-5, 2.00 ERA, 10 SV, 67.1 IP, 42 H, 13 BB, 93 K.

Why were the walk numbers so low?  Because he does what many of the Padres wish someone like Thatcher would do…come after a hitter.  Scribner has the mentality that he can come after a hitter and get outs.  So he does…no nibbling, strike one, strike 2, strike 3.  He has a slightly above average fastball that sits in the low 90s (90-92) with pretty good movement.  He’s got an outstanding breaking ball that he uses as an out pitch  If he gets two strikes on a hitter, BOOM..  Of course, his biggest weakness is well, he comes right at people and is only a two pitch pitcher.  But looking at the numbers and his makeup that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have two MLB quality pitches, and as a reliever we’ve seen you can get by with one (Trevor).  Look for him to hold games in San Antonio next year.

We also have a #1 pick coming off injury.  I believe his name is Matt Bush.  Provided that his rehab went well this is another guy who can turn up the heat as his fastball can hit 98 mph.

Honorable mention: Brandon Gomes, Mike Ekstrom and Aaron Breit (both did great after being moved to the pen), Robert Woodard, Wilton Lopes, Hampson/Thatcher/Cameron (though we already know who they are, and sadly KCam is gone), and Dylan Axelrod (I am sure I am forgetting someone).

*Just as a note I didn’t include anyone in SS Ball because a lot of the better relievers (ie Musgrave, Bass, etc..) will probably be starters in Fort Wayne next year and I wanted to just stick with relievers.  Also, players like Frieri who transitioned from the pen to the rotation was left off.

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