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Does Petco really devour lefties?

December 27, 2011 in Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Kelly, park effects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

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I had planned to write my companion piece analyzing overlooked/underlooked prospects, but Steve Adler at Friarhood posed an interesting question on his website about left-handed slugging Padres at Petco. His article brings up some pertinent ideas as to whether the Padres have had a bona fide lefty slugger with a tendency to pull. Consequently, he wonders if Petco has been given an erroneous reputation as a lefty killer.

The question got me thinking, and I honestly couldn’t come up with any pull lefty sluggers except for Ryan Klesko, and he was at Petco near the end of his career. Adrian Gonzalez was a lefty slugger, but he did not rely on the ability to pull for much of his power.

So, when the lefties don’t come to you, you go to the lefties. I compiled a list of 15 left-handed hitters who have had 25 or more at bats at Petco. Why 25+ AB’s? Well, it’s not a great sample size, admittedly, but after doing the research, I wanted to include many players in the analysis. Now, they’re not all “sluggers,” in a true sense either, as the lowest career SLG% on my list belongs to Ichiro Suzuki at .421. I wanted to take a somewhat broader approach in looking at how lefties have hit for extra bases at Petco.

I researched the players’ career at bats at Petco, focusing on 2B, 3B, HR, and SLG%. I then compared their Petco SLG to their Career SLG. The results were interesting. For the table below, I sorted the data based on the amount of change between their SLG percentages.

PLYR AB 2B 3B HR PetcoSLG CareerSLG Change
J. Loney 26 1 0 0 0.154 0.432 -0.278
C. Gonzalez 82 4 0 2 0.354 0.521 -0.167
C. Utley 78 4 0 2 0.410 0.505 -0.095
P. Fielder 61 3 0 4 0.459 0.540 -0.081
A. Gonzalez 1410 66 5 57 0.442 0.514 -0.072
E. Hinske 30 3 0 0 0.400 0.437 -0.037
I. Suzuki 92 4 1 0 0.391 0.421 -0.030
A. Huff 93 6 0 3 0.441 0.466 -0.025
T. Helton 34 4 0 1 0.559 0.550 0.009
R. Howard 78 5 1 5 0.590 0.560 0.030
J. Heyward 36 4 0 1 0.500 0.427 0.073
A. Dunn 90 4 0 7 0.578 0.503 0.075
A. LaRoche 106 10 0 7 0.594 0.478 0.116
B. McCann 67 6 0 4 0.627 0.486 0.141
J. Votto 40 2 0 4 0.750 0.550 0.200

As you can see from the table above, of the 15 guys profiled,  eight have seen a decrease in their slugging percentage points while playing at Petco. For those eight players, the average decrease in SLG was seven points. For the remaining seven players, their SLG% increased at Petco. The average increase for that group was over nine percentage points.

So, what in the world does all of this mean?

I’m definitely not a sabermetrician, and my wife (as well as my English students) would certainly question my proficiency in mathematics, but it seems to me that it’s a coin toss as to whether a player’s ability to hit for extra bases is hampered by Petco. In James Loney’s case, his slugging drops a whopping 28 percentage points in San Diego…but then again, he barely qualifies with 26 AB’s. Carlos Gonzalez, on the other hand, has 82 AB’s but sees a point drop of 17 in his SLG percentage. On the opposite end you find that Joey Votto swings for extras nearly 20 points better.

I think, in order for the park to have a reputation as a place where lefties can’t hit, you’d like to see some more definitive results. Instead of eight…maybe that number should be more like 10 or even 12. Or…maybe their production should drop more dramatically. Instead of seven percentage points, maybe closer to 10? In this comparison, the data seems to point to Petco being fairly neutral to lefties and their ability to hit for extra bases.

Now…this is certainly no standard regression analysis. There aren’t any figures for variance or deviation. Are there flaws? Sure. Maybe the comparison between Petco SLG% and career SLG% isn’t comparing apples to apples. Maybe day games vs. night games or weather should be a factor. Maybe the pitchers they faced should be included in the analysis. Maybe I should have calculated their SLG% after pulling out the Petco AB’s. The list goes on and on.

But that’s the thing about studying baseball and statistics. There are always “ifs” and “maybes” when looking at the data. I guess the point of this piece, then, is to get the conversation going and discover some more angles on this topic. It is true, I’ve heard Petco described as a place lefties go to die, but I’m starting to question what information that reputation has been built upon.

I have seen lots of good work done on how Petco suppresses offense. And the data above bears this out as well. The average career SLG% for those 15 players is .493. The average Petco SLG% for that same group is .483, a fairly significant 10 point drop in slugging percentage points at Petco.

However, if we start specifying that a certain type of hitter is stifled, we should tread carefully before making that final determination.

Putting themselves on the map

December 19, 2011 in Chris Kelly, prospects, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

Editor’s note: We’re happy to add Chris to the mix here at Friar Forecast. He’ll be contributing weekly. Chris writes at Padres Pulpit.

Hello there! Glad to have the opportunity to publish my first article here at Friar Forecast. I hope to stick around and contribute to the discussion of all things Padres for some time to come.

It’s getting to be that time of year again, when fans and pundits alike begin compiling their top prospect lists. If you pay close attention (and I’m sure you are), you’ll find that the list of Expert Y is remarkably similar to Expert X: some slight variations in rank, but generally all the same guys. You won’t find that coming from me. Ranking prospects tends to scramble my brain as much as or more than having a 2-year old and a 6-month old. Combine the two, and I’m eating my meals through a straw.

Instead, I’m going to look for a diamond in the rough. I’ll focus on a “prospect” that you won’t see on any of the lists: 1B/3B/DH Connor Powers.

Powers is a right-handed slugger who stands at a solid 6’2″ tall, filling out to 220 lbs. He was drafted by the Padres in the 21st round of the 2010 amateur draft out of…maybe you’ve heard of it–Mississippi State–where, as a freshman, he was the starting 3B. He clubbed 8 HR that season, good for third on the team. He later transitioned to 1B and produced a senior season where he hit .379 AVG with 18 2B, 16 HR, and 68 RBI. Powers finished his collegiate career with a .333 AVG, 54 HR, and 206 RBI.

His first season (2010) in Eugene was a setback, as he hit .191/.315/.287 (.602 OPS). That season is likely the reason he doesn’t show up on many lists. However, this past season, he put himself back on the map in a big way with a slash line of: .338/.422/.538 (.961 OPS). He smashed 29 2B and 8 HR in 275 AB in what is considered to be an offense-suppressing league. By comparison, Rymer Liriano–a #1 prospect on several lists–hit: .319/.383/.499. Of course, Liriano had 180 more AB and is 3 years younger.

What I like about Powers is that he shows excellent plate discipline (BB%=13.0) for a big power guy. At Ft. Wayne, he walked 42 times in 76 games. He’s also a right-handed bat, which is less likely to be devoured by Petco’s dimensions. Granted, the sample size is too small, but his 2011 ISO of .200 would place him around the level of a 2010 Mark Reynolds in terms of power.  Now, San Diego would benefit from more of the speed/defensive-minded position players, but they’ll still need a couple of sluggers to knock the burners in. I believe Powers could be that guy.

On the defensive side, Powers is strong. In his first season at 1B while playing for Mississippi State, he made one error in 422 chances. At Ft. Wayne, he made 8 errors at 1B and 1 error at 3B over a total of 573 chances. While he logged 15 games at 3B for the TinCaps, he profiles much better at first and has shown that he can handle the position well.

A comparison I have in mind is Carlos Lee, a right-handed slugging OF/1B currently with Houston, who came up in the White Sox organization. In 1996, Lee hit .313/.337/.435 as a 20-year old in Lo-A. He hit 23 2B and 8 HR that season. Obviously, the sample size for Powers is small, so the comparison isn’t a perfect one, but if he can continue to make these type of gains, he could turn out to be a middle-of-the-order run-producer for San Diego by 2014 or 2015.

I’ve picked Powers because he is a player who I see as being on the verge of making a big splash this coming season. He’ll likely move up to Hi-A Lake Elsinore…very much an offense-boosting league. Will he continue to be near a .411 BABIP? Absolutely not. However, expect him to put up some big numbers once again this season, solidifying his place in the prospect rankings.

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