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Am I crazy about a potential Cameron Maybin extension?

Yesterday I wrote about the prospect of the San Diego Padres extending center fielder Cameron Maybin to a long-term deal.

I estimated that a six-year, $40 million deal (plus an option) would be fair to both Maybin and the Padres, giving the center fielder financial security for life and the Padres a chance to maximize surplus value. The proposed six-year deal would buyout Maybin’s first two free agent eligible seasons and keep him around beyond 2015.

In the comments, Websoulsurfer said :

I think Tabata’s 6 yr/$14.25 million deal with 3 option years that could bring total value to $37.25 million w/the Pirates is a good guideline to what kind of offer Maybin will be looking at.

Bill  Center in a chat today :

Any extension granted by the Padres would have to include at least one or two seasons when Maybin was a potential free agent — So you are talking of at least a five or six year deal worth at least $15-$18 million.

Personally, I don’t see him signing for a figure that low. Unless Maybin is risk-averse or not too high on his own abilities, there is little reason for him to sign such a deal.

What do you say?

Extending Cameron Maybin

Recent reports are stating that the San Diego Padres will renew contract negotiations with Cameron Maybin in January (h/t: Chicken Friars). This is good news.

As we’ve discussed lately, the Padres have generally avoided locking up their young players to team-friendly, long-term contracts. Obviously signing a young player to a long-term deal involves some risk from the organization’s side, but the reward is having a productive player under contract for far below market value.

In his first season in San Diego, 24-year-old Cameron Maybin hit .264/.323/.393 in 569 plate appearances, patrolling center field in Petco Park. Maybin’s game offers speed (40 for 48 on stolen bases), defense (+9.5 UZR, +12 DRS), and a promising bat (it was above-average in 2011) in an exciting combination.

Depending on your source, Maybin was worth anywhere from 2.9 WAR to 4.7 WAR in 2011, with the difference due to both offensive and defensive value. Either way, Maybin was very good in 2011, and he’s just entering into his prime.

Maybin isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2013 and he’s under Padres control through 2015. From the Padres perspective, it would make a lot of sense to get Maybin locked up for more than four years to avoid the arbitration process all together and also (perhaps more importantly) buy out some free agent years.

The recent deal that Tampa Bay and Matt Moore agreed to was five years, $14 million (with options that could extend the contract to eight years, $40 million). Maybin is more established at the major league level, a position player, and further along in service-time – he’s going to want more than $14 million to sign on long-term.

Let’s take a look at Maybin’s expected market value over the next six years:

Year Proj. WAR Est. Salary (M) Market value (M)
2012 2.5 $.5 $12.5
2013 2.8 $5 $14.8
2014 3.1 $8 $17.4
2015 3.1 $12 $18.3
2016 2.8 $17.4 $17.4
2017 2.5 $16.3 $16.3

As usual, there are a lot of assumptions and estimations being made here. Consider these numbers more for illustration than any serious evaluation.

If the Padres play it year-by-year with Maybin and he performs well, they’ll net over $35 million in surplus value through 2015. In 2016, he’ll become a free agent and likely won’t be returning to San Diego. In extending Maybin, the goal should be to grab a couple of those free agent years to keep the center fielder in San Diego a few years longer.

There is incentive to play it year-by-year for the Padres – they’ll still get a ton of value out of Maybin if he produces, and if he doesn’t there isn’t a long-term commitment. Still, if they want to avoid the the arbitration process and keep Maybin around for more than four years, they should try to lock him up now.

The Friar Forecast recommendation: six  years, $40 million (2018 club option $14 million).

Maybin gets $40 million guaranteed, a decent little sum of money. The Padres lock up their (hopefully) stud center fielder at a very reasonable cost, buying out two of his free agent seasons (potentially three, if they pick up the option).

The only way for the Padres to keep someone like Maybin around after  2015 is by taking a calculated risk and locking him up early in his career. We’ll see if they decide to do it.

The Andrew Friedman approach

While other teams were busy spending big dollars on free-agents at the Winter Meetings, Tampa Bay Rays General Manager Andrew Friedman locked up left-handed pitching prospect Matt Moore to a five year, $14 million dollar deal. The deal could extend to eight years, $40 million thanks to three club options.

The Rays have become notorious for locking up their young talent (Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, etc.) to long-term, cost-effective deals, buying out arbitration and free-agent eligible seasons and saving a lot of dough.

Moore has only pitched 19.3 big league innings (23 strikeouts, 6 walks), so the Rays are taking a bit of a risk. He’s worked his way up the Rays system in dominant fashion, but he wasn’t a sure-thing by any means, drafted in 8th round of the 2007 draft.

Still, the Rays are trying to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees on a considerably smaller budget, and one way to keep the payroll down and hold onto their star players for as long as possible is to a take calculated risk like this.

That brings us to our San Diego Padres, who are in a similar situation trying to compete with the spending of the Dodgers and Giants (not to mention the D’backs and Rockies). Here’s a look at NL West payrolls, over the last five years (data courtesy of Cots Contracts):

nl west spending 

The Padres have planted themselves at the bottom of the division in spending, sitting well back of the Rockies and Diamondbacks, let alone the high-rolling Dodgers and Giants. There are a number of reasons that could explain the gap, but the Padres aren’t going to outspend the rest of this division anytime soon.

To compete the Padres need to be more efficient with their resources. One way to do that would be to sign some Freidman-like extensions. How have the Padres fared in this area?

The Padres did sign Adrian Gonzalez to a four year, $9.5 million deal (plus an option) back in 2007, which likely saved them a large chunk of change and may have increased Gonzalez’s trade value last offseason. The deal didn’t, however, buy out any of Gonzalez’s free-agent years to keep him in San Diego longer.

The Padres got closer when they signed Jake Peavy to an extension in 2005, buying out one of his free-agent years with a club option. They extended his contract in 2007, with a more free-agent-like three year, $52 million deal.

This current version of the Padres have not extended any young players. Chase Headley’s contract has been played year-by-year, and he has three arbitration-eligible seasons remaining (thanks to super-two status) before he becomes a free agent.

Ace righty Mat Latos hasn’t been extended yet, and he’s due to become a free-agent in 2016. Incidentally, Tom Krasovic reports that Latos and Headley may not be in the Padres long-term plans.

There are a number of other young players to consider: Cameron Maybin (Free-agent: 2016), Will Venable (FA: 2016), Nick Hundley (FA: 2015), Clayton Richard (FA: 2015). There are unestablished guys like Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Blanks, too.

Moore, Longoria, Crawford, Pedroia, Lester – all guys who have been signed to these type of long-term deals as young players, giving up the potential to maximize their earnings and hit free-agency sooner for money in the bank. They are all special players, of course, and you could argue that Latos and Headley (among other current Padres) don’t warrant that type of commitment.

It’s all about picking the right guys, of course, and not just handing out extensions to anyone. With a slew of good prospects on the horizon, and young big-league talent like Latos and Maybin, the Padres are going to have some decisions to make. 

Changes in the middle infield

As I’ve already mentioned a few times, the San Diego Padres are having a pretty strange off-season. From the Cameron Maybin deal, to trading The Franchise (ya know, Adrian Gonzalez), to now patching together  pretty decent team.

Daniel covered the signing of Orlando Hudson yesterday. I agree with him; Hudson is a nice pick-up, especially on a reasonable two year, $11.5M contract. Some have argued that while Hudson may be a fine acquisition, David Eckstein put up 2 fWAR last season; how much of an improvement will Hudson offer?

1. I doubt that Eckstein was really worth 2 fWAR, because I question that he was six runs above average in the field.

2. Even if Eckstein was worth 2 wins above replacement, he doesn’t project well going forward, both due to his recent past performance and his age. Hudson should offer a pretty nice improvement over David Eckstein v2011.

The Padres also (finally) finalized the trade for SS Jason Bartlett (and a PTBNL), that will send Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, and Cole Figueroa to the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Four players is more than you’d think it’d take to land Bartlett, but none of the four are really key losses. All of them have some chance of contributing at the major league level, but none are guaranteed (or particularly likely).

Russell and Ramos, the two headliners, could turn into decent bullpen options. Gomes has dominated in AA for a couple of seasons, but he’s going to be 26. Figueroa has nice on-base skills for a second basemen, but no pop.

Bartlett improves the Padres in the short-term, plus allows Everth Cabrera to get some much needed seasoning in the minors. The kicker here is of course the PTBNL, plus the fact that Bartlett could be a type-A free agent after the season and could net the Padres a couple of draft picks.

With a couple of nice mid-level moves (the Maybin trade, the Aaron Harang signing, and these two) the Padres suddenly have a chance again. It’s been a strange off-season and it will be interesting to see how it concludes.

San Diego Padres Sign Orlando Hudson

Last year, I wrote that the San Diego Padres could have improved their off-season by signing Orlando Hudson. This year, they actually did so.  After inking Orlando Hudson to a 2-year $11.5MM contract, the Padres have finally found themselves a major league caliber second baseman.

Last season, Hudson was worth 3.1 fWAR, hitting at almost exactly a league average level, while playing quality defense at a middle infield position.

His 2010 season was not a huge deviation from his career numbers which suggest Hudson has been an average hitter and average fielder, and has thus contributed a lot of value to his teams as a second-baseman.

Prior to singing Hudson, the Padres did not have a second baseman (assuming you did not think Eric Patterson was the solution) on the roster, which makes Hudson’s contributions even more meaningful.

As for the value of the deal, Dave Cameron sums it up nicely:

With a going rate of something in the neighborhood of $5 million per win this winter, Hudson would only have to generate +1.1 WAR in 2011 to justify his salary from a market-rate perspective. For comparison, Aaron Hill‘s .291 wOBA and slightly above-average defense last year was worth +1.1 WAR as a full time second baseman. There is a lot of room for Hudson to regress from his 2010 performance and still be a relative bargain, given the prices free agents have been signing for to date.

Signing Hudson has very little downside, and a good amount of upside.  He fills a glaring need for the Padres, at a value rate.

Joaquin Benoit will receive $16.5MM over the next three seasons for the Tigers, and he is a reliever who never been worth more than 2.0 fWAR in his career.  Hudson has exceeded 2.0 fWAR in all but one season starting in 2004.  Who would you rather have?

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