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The Padres Do Not Need To Steal More Bases

April 12, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, Everth Cabrera, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 8 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

The San Diego Padres have supposedly made it a priority to run the bases more aggressively this season. The theory is the team has more athletes than in previous seasons, guys who can use their legs to take that extra base and score from first on a double.  What seems to have excited fans is the prospect of the Padres stealing more bases.

Although stolen bases are exciting, I do not believe the Padres should be stealing a lot more this season than last season.

In 2009, the Padres stole 82 bases, and were caught stealing 29 times, for a success rate just under 74 percent.  To offset the risk of making an out, a team must steal successfully between 65 percent and 70 percent of the time. In expectation, the Padres gained about 1 run by stealing bases in 2009.

It is possible that the Padres might be have a higher SB percentage in 2010, but I would not bet on it.  This season, the team’s greatest threats to steal are Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn, and Will Venable.  Chase Headley steals, but he is more of a situational base stealer than frequent threats to run.  David Eckstein, Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Blanks, and Nick Hundley rarely attempt to steal.  There is not a noticeable difference in speed on this season’s team compared to last season’s.

For his career, Gwynn is a 71 percent base stealer, Venable is at 77 percent, and Cabrera is at 74 percent. There is no reason to believe that more stolen base attempts will improve the SB percentage for the guys who will probably have the most attempts.  In fact, if we assume that players choose their attempts optimally, more attempts are likely to decrease their stolen base percentage once we control for differences in times on-base.

Lets however be generous and assume the Padres can steal at a 74 percent level no matter how many steals they attempt.  Even if the Padres doubled their stolen bases attempted to 222, the Padres would only be expected to gain about 2.5 runs over not stealing at all.

If the Padres both doubled their stolen bases and increased their SB percentage to 80 percent, the team could gain an additional 8.5 runs (11 in total).  However, given only one major league team attempted more than 222 stolen bases last season (the Rays with 255) and only two teams exceeded an 80 percent success rate (the Rangers at 80.5 percent and the Phillies at 80.9 percent), I find it unlikely that the Padres could achieve such a feat.

Good base running, what the team seems to be stressing, is an easy way to maximize talent.  However, attempting more stolen bases, which the fans seem to be stressing, is unlikely to have much of an effect on wins/losses.  Last season’s worst stolen base team, the Rockies cost themselves approximately 7 runs by poor base stealing.  The best team, the Rangers gained 10 runs.  The difference from worst to first was less than 2 wins.  The difference between the Padres and the Rangers was less than 1 win.  Stolen bases are exciting, but there’s no need to cry for more of them.  It just won’t matter that much.

Tomahawk Talk Interview

April 12, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, interviews, links, other teams, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

by Daniel Gettinger

The San Diego Padres begin a four game series with the Braves today.  In anticipation of the series, I answered a few questions for Scott Humphries of the Atlanta Braves blog Tomahawk Talk.  Some of the questions dealt with the Padres, and some were more Braves focused.  You can read the entire interview on Tomahawk Talk, but here is a quick excerpt:

Tomahawk Talk: The Padres are currently scheduled to face three of the Braves’ best starting pitchers (Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson) in this week’s series. What are your thoughts on those guys?

Daniel Gettinger: Tommy Hanson is fantastic. He dominated at every level in the minors, had a great rookie season, and projects to be just as good this season. And I like Tim Hudson as well. His problem has never been effectiveness, it’s been staying healthy. I’m not quite as bullish on Jurrjens, but at the very least, he is an above average starting pitcher. Given his major league service time, a player like Jurrjens is extremely valuable to a team.

Tomahawk Talk: What are your initial thoughts/impressions of this year’s Braves team?

Daniel Gettinger: The Braves should be very good in 2010. The starting pitching is fantastic, and the bats are pretty solid as well. The key for the Braves will be staying healthy. Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Tim Hudson, and Billy Wagner have all struggled to stay off the DL in recent years and are being heavily relied upon by the Braves.

For Those Of You Into Fielding Stats…

April 9, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, fielding, links, Sabermetrics with Comments Off

by Daniel Gettinger

Read this post by MGL AND the corresponding comments.  Fascinating stuff.

Losing Chad Huffman Is No Big Deal

April 9, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

In order to clear a roster spot for Matt Stairs, the San Diego Padres had to drop a player from the 40-man roster. The odd-man out was outfielder Chad Huffman.  Although the Padres were hoping Huffman would go unclaimed, the New York Yankees stepped in and claimed him.

On his blog, Paul DePodesta wrote:

We lost the player. And, he’s a pretty good one. Chad was a 2nd round pick in 2006 out of TCU and has been a successful minor league hitter throughout his pro career, posting an OPS over .800 in each season. While crushing lefties early in his career, Chad had his most successful year yet against RHP during his first season in AAA in 2009. He always controlled the strike zone and also hit for some power – a combination we like. We think he’ll be a good Major League hitter.

Huffman might turn out to be a decent major league hitter, but he is unlikely to become a good major league player.  As Rob Neyer wrote: “Without good speed or defense, it will be an upset if he’s ever more than a fifth outfielder.”

I might also add that while Huffman’s bat is okay, it is nothing special.  As a 24 year old, he had a 830 OPS in AAA.  For a corner outfielder who plays mediocre defense, those batting stats would barely cut it in the majors, let alone AAA.  At 24 and not yet in the major leagues, he can hardly be considered a young prospect.

That said, Matt Stairs is nothing special either.  He gives the Padres a bit of lefty power off the bench, but has almost no defensive value.  He is essentially just a pinch hitter/interleague DH/”clubhouse presence.”

Should the Padres have kept Huffman rather than Stairs?  Maybe.  But I’m somewhat indifferent.  Huffman is unlikely to become a quality major league player.  Losing players like Huffman are no big deal.  He projects as a replacement level player, and by definition, replacement level players are freely available talent.

Scouting Chris Young With Pitch F/X

April 7, 2010 in Chris Young, Daniel Gettinger, pitchf/x, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

The biggest story of the San Diego Padres’ first win of the season was pitcher Chris Young’s performance. Young surrendered only one hit over six shutout innings.  He struck out five Arizona Diamondbacks and walked three.  Aside from the walks, there is little about the results that could be improved.

The results were good, and a win is always nice, but I was a bit disappointed with the speed of Young’s pitches.

In 2006 and 2007, Young threw his fastball around 89 mph on average, and got it up to 91 or 92 mph when he needed to get a little extra on a pitch.

Last night, as tracked by pitch f/x, Young’s average fastball was 84.4 mph, and his fastest fastball was only 87 mph.  Also, as the following chart demonstrates, Young’s fastball velocity consistently declined over his start…

More importantly, Young’s fastball was not rising as much as it has in the past.  Young got 12 inches of vertical break compared to nearly 15 inches in 2007.  The amount of break Young gets on his fastball is very likely a function of his pitch speed.  To be at 15 inches, he needs to be throwing closer to 89 mph.

At his best, Young was never an overpowering pitcher, but hitters seemed to have trouble with his fastball. The biggest reason was the extreme rise, and a deceptive delivery.  Young was often able to throw his fastball down the middle of the plate and get away with it.  At 84 mph, and with less rise, such pitches will eventually get hammered.  My hope is that Young is still building arm strength and that he will eventually throw 88 or 89 mph fastballs again.  If he is unable to regain such fastball speed, Young’s first-start effectiveness is unlikely to be sustainable.

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