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Ten names to know: 2012 MLB Draft Prospects

February 22, 2012 in draft, prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 8 Comments

Baseball is in the air. Players are beginning to report to spring training. The Padres appear to be nearly set with only a couple 25 man spots up for grabs. Although the 2012 draft is not until June, the Padres surely have scouts getting ready for the high school and college baseball season about to begin. With the seventhoverall pick in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, the Padres will be keeping an eye on a handful of players. Here I will introduce you to 10 names that the Padres scouts will likely be following over the next few months. All are potential top half of the first round picks. I have selected with the Padres organizational needs in mind to a large degree.

Not likely to be available:

1) Devin Marrero (SS) – The Padres would be ecstatic to find Marerro at number seven. It is very unlikely that he falls to the Padres, but the Padres would be foolish to not scout him anyway. Marrero is one of the better college shortstops to come out in years. He does not possess Manny Machado upside, IMO. However, he does have a high floor and may move fast. Marrero is a good bet to be an average to slightly above average major league shortstop within two years of drafting. The Padres should be salivating.

2) Lucas Giolito (RHP) – My personal favorite of the 2012 draft. Giolito has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the 2012 draft. He routinely hits the mid- to-upper 90’s with the radar gun and has a projectable frame. At 6’6” and 200lbs, he is a potential ace. Giolito could go #1 overall and most likely will not be available when the Padres draft.

3) Mark Appel (RHP) – Many believe Appel will be the first player selected. With this being a shallow college player draft, Appel stands out amongst the rest. Appel is 6’5” 190 lb projectable workhorse. Appel, IMO, does not project to be an ace. Although, some will argue that he has the upside of an ace. I think Appel will be viewed by most scouts as #2 that eats up solid innings. Appel represents the best floor/ceiling combination of any pitcher in the 2012 draft. There are enough teams in need of advanced pitching ahead of the Padres that Appel is highly unlikely to be available to the Padres.

4) Mike Zunino (C) – The Padres may no longer have an organizational need at catcher. However, catching is such a valuable commodity that should Zunino be available at number seven, the Padres would consider drafting him as the best player available. Make no mistake, the Padres would not draft Zunino ahead of Giolito, Marrero, or Appel. Zunino projects to be major league ready fairly quickly. Most of the scouting reports I have read suggest Zunino’s floor is an above average backup catcher with his ceiling as an above average major league starting catcher. He is a solid bet to play regularly at the catching position in the Majors, which makes him valuable.

Players that might be available to the Padres:

5) Kevin Gausman (RHP) – Gausman is a power pitcher for LSU. Gausman has more upside, IMO, than Appel. However, Gausman has a high bust factor as he has not shown the same consistency as Appel. If Gausman pitches exceptionally this spring, he may be picked ahead of the Padres at #7. Gausman has the potential to be a top of the rotation elite starter if he puts everything together. The Padres, lacking in elite prospect talent, should be scouting Gausman heavily this spring.

6) Carlos Correa (SS) – With Marrero likely gone by the #6 overall pick, the Padres could draft Correa. Correa will be a project for whoever drafts him. He is not a sure bet for staying at SS, but has the athleticism that will entice teams to try him there early in his pro career. The Padres should be scouting Correa quite a bit since SS is very weak. Personally, I would pass on Correa should a very good pitching prospect like Gausman be available. Correa, IMO, does not represent a significant upside improvement over Jace Peterson and would be slightly behind Peterson in development.

7) Byron Buxton (OF) – Many believe Buxton to be the best overall high school position talent available in terms of ceiling. I have heard comparisons to Donovan Tate. Buxton, for the Padres, would represent drafting an elite upside talent. Buxton has the potential to be a five-tool outfielder. Given the only elite upside outfielder in the Padres system is Tate, the Padres would likely consider taking Buxton should he be available.

8 ) Max Fried (LHP) – High school lefties with fastballs sitting in the low 90’s and occasionally reaching 95 are sure to get the attention of scouts. At 6’3” and 170 lbs, Fried has the frame to go along with his pitching repertoire. Fried is a personal favorite of mine and would love to see the Padres draft him if he is the best available left at #7.

Likely to be available:

9) Chris Beck (RHP) – Beck is one of the safer college pitching picks. At 6’3” 190lbs, he certainly has the projectable frame. Beck should be available to the Padres should they decide to go with a safe pick with minimal sign-ability risk. Beck projects as a middle of the rotation starter with #2 upside if his secondary pitches continue to improve.

10) Lance McCullers (RHP) — McCullers is in a similar boat as Gausman. Both need a big spring to solidify their status as a top 10 draft pick. McCullers routinely hits the upper 90’s with the radar gun. However, McCullers is even more raw than Giolito and doesn’t have the same frame. At 6’2’ 195 lbs, McCullers still has some frame projectability but coupled with his raw potential makes McCullers a project. McCullers could be a top 5 pick if he shows improvement in command and secondary pitches this spring.

Additional names that the Padres would likely be scouting: Trey Williams, Victor Roache, Walker Weichel, Mike Wacha, Jake Barrett, Nick Williams, and Lucas Sims.

Overall, there should be plenty of players for the Padres to choose from in the 2012 draft. If I were putting together a “big” board for the Padres and the draft were held tomorrow, here is how I would have it:

1) Marrero
2) Giolito
3) Appel
4) Gausman
5) Fried
6) Buxton
7) Zunino

Gausman, Fried, and Buxton are the most likely to be available and all would represent high upside picks for the Padres.

Padres fail to sign Whitson, Vanegas

August 17, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, prospects, San Diego Padres with 11 Comments

In a bit of a shocker, the deadline to sign Rule 4 Draft picks came and passed without the San Diego Padres striking a deal with first round selection (ninth overall pick) RHP Karsten Whitson.

The Padres also failed to sign highly touted RHP A.J. Vanegas, who they selected in the seventh round. Vanegas has a commitment to Stanford. Later picks Miguel Pena, Sean Dwyer, and Connor Hofmann also did not sign. The same can be said for a slew of late-rounders.

The Padres did go over slot to sign the likes of Zach Cates (third round, $381K) John Barbato (sixth round, $1.4M), and Jose Dore (eighth round, $450K).

As I mentioned in my draft recap, we would have to at least wait until August (after the deadline) to make any final determination on the future prospects of this draft. Well, it’s August, and you could easily argue that the Padres failed to sign the two best players they selected in this year’s draft.

What makes this so strange is that there wasn’t any rumors about Whitson being a tough sign after the pick was made or leading up to the deadline. In fact, he was reported to be a relatively easy sign for a top high school pitcher. Jed Hoyer says that the Padres had a verbal agreement with Whitson and company for $1.9M just after the draft. The number got bumped up to $2.1M at the deadline, but that wasn’t enough for Whitson.

It’s a fascinating situation and it’s easy to come down hard on the either side here. Whitson  broke a verbal agreement and apparently completely changed his tune after the draft. That said, according to Hoyer, Whitson was looking for a figure in the $2.7M range. The Padres wouldn’t spend an extra $600-800K to sign an elite talent.

Listening to Hoyer’s voice, it appears that this may be as much a matter of principle as it is an economic decision. Whitson broke a promise and because of that the Padres weren’t going to give him what he was looking for. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but from a fan’s perspective the organization isn’t as strong now as it could be, with both Whitson and Vanegas going to college.

Sure, the Padres will get the eleventh pick in the 2011 draft, which is supposed to be a much deeper crop. But that’s another year down the road, another year later before the player even begins his major league development. Not to mention, the Padres won’t have protection next year, giving their draftee added leverage.

This is an interesting situation, one far too complicated to truly analyze from the outside. To me, the scary part is if, for some reason, the Padres simply let $600-800K get in the way of acquiring a very good young baseball player.

We’ve commended the Padres recently for going above slot and/or selecting different types of players than in recent years – generally, high upside guys that are going to require more money to sign (i.e., Tate, Williams, and Sampson). Hopefully the Padres haven’t let this year’s success at the major league level blind them to the fact that it is imperative for a small market team to build through a strong farm system.

For more, Nathaniel has an excellent article on the situation at Chicken Friars.

Top draft picks still unsigned

August 15, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 12 Comments

The San Diego Padres have now signed seven of their top ten picks from the 2010 draft, as they announced the signing of third round pitcher Zach Cates yesterday:

The Padres have agreed to terms with Northeast Texas CC righthander Zach Cates for $765,000, the largest bonus paid out in the third round so far this year. It’s also more than double MLB’s recommendation of $380,700 for his No. 91 draft slot.

Cates spent most of his 2009 freshman season as a catcher and pitched just seven innings before blossoming on the mound as a sophomore. His fastball ranged from 90-93 to 95-97 mph, and he also showed a relatively advanced changeup. His curveball flashes some promise as well. He would have transferred to Oklahoma State had he not turned pro.

The Padres have also signed eighth round pick Jose Dore, an outfielder from Florida (and a Florida State commit) for $450,000, three times the recommended slot.

The deadline to sign draft picks is tomorrow at 11:59PM (EST) and the Padres still haven’t signed their first pick RHP Karsten Whitson, their sixth round pick RHP John Barbato, or their seventh round selection RHP A.J.  Vanegas.

Whitson is a consensus premium talent and he’s expected to sign. Barbato and Vanegas have always had signability issues, as they both fell to the Padres due to their commitments to Florida and Stanford, respectively.

It has been nice to see the Padres (1) draft premium talent over the last couple of years and (2) sign most of those picks, going over slot to do so. Hopefully we will see the trend continue tomorrow with the Padres inking Whitson, Barbato, and Vanegas to deals.

Evaluating the draft: Ask me in August (or 2015)

June 9, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 5 Comments

The San Diego Padres, along with the rest of MLB, completed the 2010 draft today. Here are the Padres first 15 picks (full list here):

Pick Player Level POS Size BA PNR
9 Whitson HS RHP 6-3, 195 15 3
59 Gyorko WVU 2B 5-10, 195 39 60
91 Cates JC RHP 6-3, 200 79 80
124 Bisson UK 2B 5-11, 185 149 121
154 Noel Co. Car. CF 5-9, 175 - -
184 Barbato HS RHP 6-2, 185 144 129
214 Vanegas HS RHP 6-3, 205 46 41
244 Dore HS RF 6-1, 170 - 126
274 Spence ASU LHP 6-1, 190 - 269
304 Slemp JC LF 6-1, 200 - -
334 Guinn Cal SS 6-1, 170 156 168
364 Franklin SLU RHP 6-1, - - -
394 Pena SJ Coll. LHP 6-2, 170 - -
424 Medica SCU C 6-2, - - -
454 Dwyer HS 1B 6, 190 167 -

Here is the full breakdown:

HS Pitcher HS Bat Coll. Pitcher C. Bat
8 7 17 19

I classified Junior College picks as college players, although some of them have only been in college for a year. In reality, each pick is different and this is just a simple way to classify them.

Anyway, it appears the Padres had a pretty good draft here. Whitson is highly regarded for both his stuff and command. Looks like he has some room to grow and fill out. The risk of the high school pitcher – or the pitcher, in general – is well known, but Whitson looks to be a solid choice.

Gyorko and Bisson, two college second basemen, are polar opposites, but I think they both have a chance to develop into useful players. Cates, the JC pitchers, looks like a nice third round pick. Seems like the Padres reached a bit on Noel from Coastal Carolina, as there are some concerns about his size and bat, but you have to like his speed and athleticism. The middle infielder from Cal, Guinn, could be a steal at pick 334.

The interesting part of the draft, to me, came in rounds six though eight, when the Padres took three high-schoolers, and three guys with solid college commitments. Right-hander John Barbato has a strong commitment to Florida. Vanegas might be the biggest coup if he signs, rated in the low 40s by BA and PNR, but he has a “strong” to “very strong” commitment to Stanford, not an easy place to lure players away from.  Dore is committed to Florida State.

The Padres have to convince these guys to pass up an education and a chance to improve their draft status, and they will do that largely with above-slot money.  Last year, Donovan Tate got a $6.25 signing money and it doesn’t look like Whitson will be that tough of a sign (my guess, somewhere in the $2.5-$3M range). If the Padres’ draft budget is similar to last year, they should have some extra money to play around with. Hopefully they will put it to good use.

As this post’s title suggest, evaluating a draft right now, especially if you are not an expert, is basically impossible. If history tells us anything, most of these guys won’t succeed. Maybe one or two will become solid Major League ball players. At the same time, perhaps the Padres have hit the jackpot, and picked a future ace or a group of big league caliber ball players. We’ll see in five years.

Callis on Cates

June 9, 2010 in draft, links, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

Baseball America’s Jim Callis on the Padres third round selection Zack Cates:

No. 79 on our overall Top 200. Have to read your reports at baseballamerica.com so you can get info like this:

Undrafted out of an Arkansas high school in 2008 and bypassed again at Northeast Texas CC last year, Cates won’t be overlooked a third time. He spent most of his freshman season as a catcher, standing out for his strong arm and working just seven innings on the mound. A strong fall as a pitcher landed him on follow lists, and he has steadily risen up draft boards this spring. His fastball ranges from 90-93 mph to 95-97, and there should be more consistent velocity in his 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame. For an inexperienced pitcher, he has a relatively advanced changeup, which grades out as a better pitch than his curveball. His curve does have its moments, and he could have an easy plus fastball with two solid secondary pitches once he develops. His command and control still need work, but neither is a red flag. He’s a tough competitor. Cates hasn’t committed to a four-year school for 2010 and should be signable.

PNR Scouting rated Cates at 80 on their top 300 draft board.

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