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Rico Noel, Padres fifth round pick

June 8, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

In the 5th round of the MLB draft, the San Diego Padres took Jablonski (Rico) Noel, a center fielder from Coastal Carolina.

Let’s get right to the numbers:

Year PA BA OBP SLG BB K ExBH SB-A
Fresh 191 .240 .330 .329 19 45 9 16-20
Soph 281 .315 .427 .500 34 53 26 48-51
Junior 287 .348 .464 .587 40 41 31 56-69

Adjusted Junior year stats: .353/.474/.594, .469 wOBA. Coastal Carolina plays in a neutral park and their strength of schedule was 100th in the nation, courtesy of Boyd’s World.

That’s an interesting statistical profile. He improved each year, increasing his average, walk rate, and power, while cutting down the strikeouts. Noel is described as a player who, offensively, puts the ball in play and uses all fields (and, once he gets on, steals bases). However, check out those K-rates. For his career, he struck out 139 times in 759 plate appearances (18%).

Jeff Sackman has done some research on college strike out rates and  when to “red-flag” somebody because they whiff too much in college. He concludes:

Thus, we can tweak the warning range again. Instead of 15 percent to 17.5 percent, we’re looking at college strikeout rates between about 18.5 percent and 22 percent. Anything over 22 percent foretells serious contact problems; anything above about 18 percent suggests that a player will have to be awfully good in the other 82 percent of plate appearances to make up for the strikeouts.

Noel for his career is at 18.3%, but he has lowered it in each year (24% – 19% – 15%), which is a good sign. However, it is definitely a concern, especially for someone who does not possess a ton of power and whose game is built around speed and getting on base.

Noel’s strikeout issues were further evident on the Cape last summer, when he struck out 35 times in 134 PAs (26%). He hit .233/.336/.302 overall. At 5-9, 170, Rico needs to continue working on making contact as he enters pro ball.

He definitely has some positives attributes, including his overall on-base ability and, mainly, his defensive ability and the pure speed he brings to the field. During his four year career at Coastal Carolina – and including his Cape Cod League performance — he has stolen 146 bases in 170 attempts (86%).

Here’s some video of Noel.

Chris Bisson, Padres fourth-rounder

June 8, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

In the fourth round of the draft, the San Diego Padres took a Junior from Kentucky, second basemen Chris Bisson (pronounced BEES-own).

Bisson is very much a contrast to Jedd Gyorko, who was taken two rounds earlier. Unlike  Gyroko, Bisson does not have great hitting prowess, however he brings excellent defense and great speed to the table. Let’s check the numbers:

Year PA BA OBP SLG BB K ExBH SB-A
Fresh 59 .157 .271 .216 8 11 3 3-6
Soph 245 .360 .414 .455 20 28 14 13-16
Junior 242 .329 .416 .467 28 33 18 32-39

Bisson gets a nice bump in his raw numbers, checking in on College Splits adjustments for his Junior year: .343/.433/.481, .407 wOBA. Bisson benefited from an extreme hitter’s park (132, from 2006-09), but also played a against tough competition in the SEC (Kentucky’s SOS was 23rd in the country this year) – both numbers from Boyd’s World.

With wood, Bisson hit .269/.385/.306 in the Cape Cod League last summer, but did steal 36 bases in 42 games.

Baseball Beginnings has a nice scouting report on Bisson, concluding:

SUMMARY: Chance to be best defender at his position. Speed plays. Needs to develop strength and prove he can consistently put ball in play. Won’t hit for power or be impact offensive player, but speed and defense will give him value.

There are serious questions about Bisson’s bat, but the fact that he provides good defense up the middle and brings plus speed to the field certainly won’t hurt his development.

Jedd Gyorko, Padres second round pick

June 8, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

In the second round at pick 59, the Padres selected West Virginia shortstop Jedd Gyorko.

Gyorko is rated as the 39th best draft prospect by Baseball America, 43rd by John Sickels, and 57th by Keith Law. Gyorko is a 5-10, 185 right-hand hitting shortstop. He has a stocky frame and will likely move to second or third base in professional ball. He has a very solid bat, however:

Year PA BA OBP SLG BB K ExBH
Fresh 253 .409 .450 .612 17 26 28
Soph 262 .421 .487 .658 32 25 37
Junior 280 .381 .472 .750 43 24 48

He got better every year at West Virginia, and as a freshman he had a 1.072 OPS. That’s pretty good. He improved his control of the strike zone each progressive year, and although his batting average dropped as a Junior, he increased his home run output from eight in each of the previous two year to 19 in his final year at West Virginia.

His park/schedule adjusted Junior season stats from College Splits: .373/.467/.737, .503 wOBA. He played in a slight pitcher’s park and West Virginia’s strength of schedule was 129th in the country, both according to Boyd’s World.

According to Paul DePodesta, he also hit .326/.388/.488 last summer in the Cape Cod League. Those numbers may not look that impressive, but consider college hitters are switching from metal to wood bats, and the league as a whole hit about .235. Gyorko’s .323 batting average and .488 slugging percentage were both third in the league.

Here’s a video of Gyorko hitting:

I am no swing-mechanics expert, but he looks pretty good at the point of contact:

Gyorko

And again:

Gyorko2

And while we’re at it, a home run vs. Maryland:

Gyorko3

Here’s Jedd in the infield:

From my non-expert perspective, I like this pick at 59. Unlike Padres first round pick Whitson, Gyorko is a pretty decent bet to progress quickly and, at some point, make an impact in the majors. At the same time, due mostly to his body type and fielding ability, his upside probably isn’t near that of Whitson’s. But at 59, he’s a nice pick.

Day 2 draft open thread

June 8, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 7 Comments

The San Diego Padres take Jedd Gyorko at 59, shortstop from West Virginia.

Rounds 2-30 will be completed today. Picks are live on MLB.com.

Karsten Whitson, Padres first round pick

June 7, 2010 in draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, scouting with 6 Comments

The San Diego Padres picked Karsten Whitson in the first round of the 2010 MLB draft, 9th overall. Whitson is a 6-4, 195 lb right-handed starter from Chipley High School in Florida.

The risk that is the HS pitcher

Before getting into Whitson, specifically, let’s talk about high school pitchers in general. The general consensus is that prep pitchers have the most risk of any type of draft prospect (HS pitchers, HS bat, college pitchers, college bat). Take a look at this chart, created by Sky Andrecheck at Baseball Analysts, and based off his draft WAR model:

draft chart 

The chart says that  high school pitchers, selected toward the top of the draft, have about a 30% chance of at least reaching the majors and contributing 1 WAR through their career. You can see that that figure is lower than the other three types of players, and the trend continues as you scan down the chart and raise expectations. This chart shows us that high school pitchers are least likely to make any impact at the major league level, and that their ceilings are actually *lower* – on average — than their college and position player counterparts.

In other words, high school pitchers are dangerous. Importantly, however, the data suggest that the risk might not be worth the reward, as they don’t offer a higher upside either.

Here are all high school pitchers selected in the top 15 picks, from 1999 through 2006:

Year Player # Org. RH/LH WAR
1999 Josh Beckett 2 Bos RH 23.5
1999 Bobby Bradley 8 Pit RH -
1999 Brett Myers 12 Phi RH 7.4
1999 Ty Howington 14 Cin LH -
1999 Jason Stumm 15 Chi RH -
2000 Mike Stodolka 4 KC LH -
2000 Matt Harrington 7 Col RH -
2000 Matt Wheatland 8 Det RH -
2000 Mark Phillips 9 SD LH -
2000 Joe Torres 10 Ana LH -
2001 Gavin Floyd 4 Phi RH 5.6
2001 Colt Griffin 9 KC RH -
2001 Mike Jones 12 MIl RH -
2002 Chris Gruler 3 Cin RH -
2002 Zack Greinke 6 KC RH 20.5
2002 Scott Kazmir 15 NYM LH 18.1
2003 John Danks 9 Tex LH 12.1
2004 Mark Rogers 5 Mil RH -
2004 Homer Bailey 7 Cin RH -1.4
2006 C. Kershaw 7 LA LH 4.9
2006 Kasey Kiker 12 Tex LF -

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the data.

You’ve got a number of hits (Beckett, Greinke, Kazmir, Kershaw) and a bunch of misses. You may notice another trend, too. There were 10 HS pitchers taken in the first 15 picks between the 1999 and 2000 drafts. From 2001 through 2006, however, there were only 11 taken. It appears that teams were getting a little more selective with prep arms, as they better realized the risk.

Karsten Whitson is not Mark Phillips

One of the problems with this type of analysis is that we are lumping players together. Sure, “high school pitchers” is a convenient enough category – and it obviously makes a good deal of sense – but we have to recognize that all high school pitchers are not the same, and frankly many of them are not even similar, taking into account size, stuff, command, make-up, etc. .

Perhaps the Padres have selected their Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, or Jake Peavy here. Maybe they haven’t. It’s close to impossible to tell, especially when you don’t have access to the scouting reports and first hand knowledge that the Padres and some draft experts do.

That said, that is not going to stop us from discussing Whitson, and trying to form some type of opinion on his future in the Padres organization.

Basic facts

Karsten Whitson, RHP
Chipley HS, FLA
6-4, 190
Commitment: Florida
Stats: 7-3, 123 strikeouts, 55 innings (senior season)

Scouting Report

Drawing off the excellent scouting report available at PNR Scouting, Whitson offers the following pitches:

Fastball – Sits in low-90s, can reach 94-95. Good movement. Can add velocity with improved strength/altering mechanics. Only issue is control.

Slider – Low-80s power slider. Plus pitch. Needs to work on control/command.

Change-up – Low-80s. Work in progress, but has potential to be solid offering.

Here’s a good report on his mechanics, from Amazin’ Avenue:

Issue number two concerns his mechanics. If you watch him from the side, pay attention to how he lands on his left leg. Ideally, the pitcher lands on it softly, with the knee bent a little less than 90 degrees. In Whitson’s case, he’s landing stiffly, immediately pushing up with his leg as he lands. What’s the big deal? It implies three issues, none of which are huge deals for Whitson. First, it can impair a pitcher’s control, due to the leg forcing his body away from his momentum at the moment of release. Whitson’s command is pretty good as is (but maybe it can be better). Second, a great stride shouldn’t allow you to land anything but softly. It may be that Whitson can get a little more power from his stride, either adding velocity to his fastball or taking a little stress off his shoulder. And third, Whitson’s follow-through is a little short, and I’m pretty sure the stiff leg is the reason. A good follow-through can act almost like an energy sink, allowing the pitcher’s arm to decelerate as safely as possible. If cut prematurely, it can shock the pitcher’s shoulder a second time, adding recoil to the delivery. Lengthening Whitson’s stride just a little might solve all three potential problems.

And a couple of videos of Whitson:

 

The consensus opinion

Here’s a chart showing where various draft experts rank Whitson:

Expert Rank
Keith Law 5
Baseball America 12
John Sickels 9
PNR Scouting 3
Lincoln Hamilton 6

Overall, Whitson is obviously a highly regarded pitching prospect. The questions regarding his development are questions that follow most any young pitching prospect. Can he handle 200 innings down the road? Can he add a few MPH with improved mechanics and/or strength and conditioning? Can he refine his mechanics and avoid injury? Can he improve his command/control?

The Padres obviously believe that he has a good chance to develop into a solid pitcher, as they spent a high pick on him and will likely have to pony up above-slot dollars to sign him away from his Florida commitment. We’ll be rooting for him. 

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