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Gwynn Jr. a Dodger

December 8, 2010 in contracts, fielding, Myron Logan, other teams, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

Tony Gwynn Jr. recently signed a one year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers for just under $700k.

The deal is being labeled as a steal for LA by smart folks around the blogosphere. While I agree that, in this market, it’s definitely a nice pick-up to add Gwynn Jr. for under a million bucks, I’m not sure it’s that great of a deal.

Gwynn Jr. had a decent offensive year in 2009, posting a .311 wOBA. However, last season in 339 PAs he was dreadful, hitting .204/.304/.287 (.276 wOBA). However, in those two seasons, he posted WAR values, courtesy of FanGraphs, of 2.4 and 1.7 respectively.

That value is largely due to his centerfield defense, which according to UZR says that he was 18 runs above average in 207 games in center, and 23 runs above average in 218 total games in the outfield with the Padres.

We know that he *probably* wasn’t really that good, due simply to regression to the mean – the fact that, if he played another 218 games under the same conditions, he would likely rate closer to average.

But that is true with all extreme fielding performance. The question I’m more interested in is if Gwynn Jr. is even close to that good defensively. There’s a well known theory (or fact) that it’s harder to hit in Petco because of the size and layout of the park and the heavy marine air. Well, if that is true for hitters, wouldn’t the opposite be true for fielders? The heavy air will, in theory, hold would-be doubles or home runs in the air just long enough to make somewhat routine catches look like great ones.

While some defensive metrics (like UZR) have build-in park adjustments, I’m just not sure how much I trust the numbers, given all the speculation about potential biases in the data that may impact the final calculations – before we even consider the park effects.

While it may look like I’m ripping Gwynn’s defense *after* he leaves for the Dodgers, as I’ve touted his fielding ability numerous times here in the past, it’s more a realization that picking up players solely (or mostly) because of their impressive fielding stats can be a dangerous move, much more so than picking up a solid hitter with suspect fielding numbers.

In the end, it’s still a good move for the Dodgers, as $700K isn’t going to kill them, even if Gwynn Jr. – worst case – becomes a defensive liability in center. More than likely, he’s a little above average in the field, quite a bit below with the bat, and he’ll be a solid enough pick-up for LA.

For the Padres, losing Gwynn Jr. could have stung a bit if they were planning to compete in 2011, but with the current state of transition, losing a fringe guy like Gwynn Jr. just isn’t that significant.*

*That’s without considering the fact that you have to see “Gwynn” on the back of a Dodgers jersey again.

The Padres Have Been an Excellent Fielding Team

April 28, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, fielding, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

A primary reason for the San Diego Padres’ success this season has been the strength of the team’s fielding.

The Padres rank first in the majors in UZR/150 and third in Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved.

Leading the charge has been the centerfield tandem of Tony Gwynn and Scott Hairston who have combined for approximately 7 runs above average according to both metrics.

Because of the severe sample size issues associated with fielding statistics, I do not want to discuss any more individual performances, but collectively the Padres have played 1620 defensive innings (180 9-inning individual games).  That is a somewhat more meaningful sample, and provides some reason to be optimistic about the Padres’ fielding going forward.

The bullpen is good (fourth in reliever’s RAR).  The fielding appears to be a strength.  If the team could get a bit more production out of their starting pitchers (currently ranked 23rd in starter’s RAR), the Padres could be one of the major league’s best run prevention teams.  And that’s not even considering the impact of Petco Park.

Miscellaneous Early Season Padres Thoughts

April 18, 2010 in Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley, Chris Young, Daniel Gettinger, Everth Cabrera, fielding, San Diego Padres with 9 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

  • As a team the San Diego Padres have performed pretty much as expected.  They are currently 6-6 with a slightly positive run differential.  I still think 75-80 wins is a realistic expectation for this team.
  • Chase Headley has been locked in offensively, but his defense needs immediate improvement.  He has five errors in 32 chances.  UZR data is not yet available for this season, and even if it was, the sample would be too small to be meaningful.  But Headley’s defense has been so bad that much of his offensive value has likely been negated.
  • Will Venable needs to stop swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone.  He has swung at 34 percent of the pitches out of the zone.  His lack of plate discipline thus far has resulted in a minuscule 4.7 percent walk rate.  Venable has never shown a ton of plate discipline (in either the majors or the minors).  It is something he will need to work on if he wants to become an above average player.
  • Perhaps last season was no fluke for Kevin Correia after all.  He’s looked pretty solid.
  • Gregerson’s and Adams’ artificially high ERAs are not reflective of the way they have been pitching.
  • The Padres bullpen has a lot of good pitchers.  I remain convinced the team will not miss Heath Bell too much once he is traded.
  • Labrum surgery is not Tommy John surgery.  Many pitchers never fully recover after having labrum surgery.  They almost never come back stronger.  I hope we have not seen the last of Chris Young as an effective pitcher, but there is a non- trivial chance that might be the case.  (As an aside, I had labrum surgery four months ago, and can certainly understand what Young is going through.  At times the shoulder feels great, but often tightens up after being tested a bit).
  • Mat Latos will be fine.  He has given up too many homeruns, but his 30 percent HR/FB rate is nowhere near sustainable.  Braden Looper had the major league’s highest HR/FB rate last season (amongst qualified pitchers), and he was only at 15 percent.  With Latos pitching half of his games at Petco Park, he is highly unlikely to continue serving up home runs at such a high rate.
  • Adrian Gonzalez is fantastic.  Nobody wants to pitch to him, and I don’t blame them.  Some team will get an excellent player and the Padres will be properly compensated for trading that excellent player.

For Those Of You Into Fielding Stats…

April 9, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, fielding, links, Sabermetrics with Comments Off

by Daniel Gettinger

Read this post by MGL AND the corresponding comments.  Fascinating stuff.

Storylines for 2010: Everth Cabrera’s fielding

January 13, 2010 in Everth Cabrera, fielding, Myron Logan, Sabermetrics with 13 Comments

by Myron Logan

Recently, I have been thinking about possible storylines for the upcoming season; what we are going to be watching. I think, for the most part, they involve sorting out the future of this team, and not necessarily winning games (though we will accept winning games, too).

I thought we could run through some different issues in separate posts, as sort of a disjointed season preview, touching on major topics (like where Adrian Gonzalez will play his games post all-star break) and micro ones (Cabrera’s fielding or Gwynn’s bat, for example).

Anyway, Everth Cabrera broke onto the scene with a surprising rookie year, making the huge jump from A-ball to the majors as a rule 5 pick. He not only stuck in the bigs, he clearly turned himself from borderline prospect to potential long-term contributor. He had shown plenty of offensive talent in the minors, so perhaps his season with the bat — .255/.342/.361 – should not have been that much of a surprise. He is not a power hitter, and probably will not turn into one, but he combines enough speed and patience to be a solid offensive contributor, especially at shortstop and in Pecto Park.

The CHONE projections, despite pegging him as nearly a league-average offensive player (again, quite a feat coming from a guy who had never played above A ball until last year), have him as a 1 WAR player next year. That is not bad, but it is not exactly earth-shattering either. Why so low? His fielding. CHONE projects his fielding to be 10 runs worse than the average shortstop next year. Considering that is a projection, and not raw numbers based on relatively few opportunities, it is somewhat disheartening.

UZR, available on FanGraphs as well, was also not a fan of Cabrera’s glove-work last year, putting him at nearly 12 runs below average. It was not just an error issue either, as he was equally bad in error runs and range runs (about –6 in each category). The only bright spot was his double play rating, which was just slightly above average.

For even further evidence of his defensive shortcomings, by the numbers, the data available at THT is also not encouraging. Cabrera came in last in the NL, among qualifiers, in RZR (plays in his zone turned into outs). His play out of his zone was respectable, but overall he still comes out well below average.

The good news is that Cabrera is young and talented, so these early numbers do not necessarily show who he is going to turn into on the defensive side of the ball. The other good news is that they may be wrong, or at least too pessimistic. Baseball America 2009 called Everth’s shift to short in 2008 “seamless,” and reported that he showed solid range and arm strength there. The Fans Scouting Report results were also positive, ranking Cabrera as the tenth best SS in the majors, and giving him excellent grades in “first few steps,” “speed”,” and “arm strength.”.

It is possible that the numbers do not represent his actual performance from last year; that due to whatever biases, they did not grade his fielding properly. It is also definitely possible that, despite a bad initial showing, he could develop into an average (even elite) fielder, with good coaching and hard work on his part. Of course, it is also possible that he just is not good with the glove.

Whether Everth Cabrera becomes a staple at the 6 hole for this Padres team may very well come down to what kind of value he ends up providing in the field. His development in this area of his game is something to keep a close eye on this year.

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