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Yonder Alonso loves Petco

January 28, 2012 in Myron Logan, park effects, San Diego Padres, Yonder Alonso with 8 Comments

Over at the U-T, Bill Center has an article on Yonder Alonso, with a lot of quotes from the new San Diego Padres first basemen:

“A lot of left-handed hitters and first basemen are thinking home runs,” Alonso continued. “That’s not the type of left-handed hitter I am.

“When I look at Petco Park, I don’t see how far away the fences are. I see a lot of grass. I feel like this ballpark likes the kind of hitter I am.”

It’s certainly refreshing to see Alonso embracing his new digs, regardless of how he’ll feel come June. He goes on:

“The fences are closer in Cincinnati,” reasoned Alonso. “The outfielders are packed into a smaller space. A lot of balls in the gaps get caught. There isn’t nearly as much grass in Cincinnati as there is here.”

He’s right, there’s more green in Petco’s outfield than Great American Ballpark’s. However, it’s unclear whether line-drive hitter’s can neutralize (even to a degree) Petco’s ability to suppress offense.

Sure, a screaming liner that barely gets off the ground will play anywhere. The real question, though, is the gap line-drive that should fall for a double in most parks. In Petco, that ball has a tendency to hang up in the air and gently fall into the glove of a waiting outfielder. Think marine layer.

Petco always ranks at (or near) the bottom of the league in its ability to prevent not only runs, but also doubles. According to research at Beyond the Boxscore, here are the five toughest hitter’s parks from 2006-2010:

Team Runs PF 2B/BIP HR/BIP
SD .91 .90 .92
SEA .96 .98 .95
NYN .96 .97 .95
OAK .96 .97 .93
TB .97 .96 1.00

Note that these PFs include away games, so to truly isolate the Petco effect you would double these figures (Petco suppresses doubles by 20 percent, for example).

You can see that Petco is clearly the best all-around pitcher’s park in the league. Interestingly, though, there’s a larger discrepancy between Petco and the other pitcher’s parks for doubles per ball in play than HR/BIP. In fact, no team’s home park comes close to Petco in stifling doubles, which while not as devastating as a home run are certainly a more frequent event.

Further, Petco actually increases strikeouts more than any other park. It’s a deadly combination that’s earned Petco its deserved reputation as Killer of All Things Offense. It’s important to note, however, that it doesn’t just eat up home runs.

Alonso may still be a better fit for Petco than Rizzo, but he won’t be able to escape its overall negative impact on offense.

THT Forecasts

January 26, 2012 in blogging, Myron Logan, projections, San Diego Padres with 0 Comments

By now, you probably know I write a bi-weekly article for The Hardball Times. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a great opportunity to write for a site with a rich history of producing awesome content.

This year I have a chance to write the San Diego Padres player comments for THT Forecasts, which you should probably buy. I’m taking over the duties from the venerable Geoff Young, so I have my work cut out for me.

It’s a bit of a challenge distilling a player’s future outlook down to a paragraph or two, but it’s a challenge I wouldn’t dare pass up. I should have comments for a good 40 players or so, including a number of prospects. The player comments won’t be available until closer to spring training, but the 2012 projections are already updated and certainly worth the price. The comments are just an added bonus.

Along with the 2012 projections, you also get a long-term (six year) forecast for every player, various leaderboards and options to sort the projections, comments from past seasons, and updated in-season projections. If you’re a fantasy player, these are right up your alley.

For more info about THT Forecasts, check here and here.

The next Erubiel Durazo

January 25, 2012 in Myron Logan, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting, Yonder Alonso with 3 Comments

Generally, I’m hesitant to compare prospects to established major leaguers. There are so many subtle differences in player skill-sets that, without exhaustive research, I’m never all that comfortable with the comparisons.

Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo

After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help but think Erubiel Durazo.

At first, you might think that comparing a highly-touted first base prospect to Erubiel Durazo is my way of saying that I’m not overly high on Alonso, but that isn’t necessarily true. Upon reaching the majors at age 25, Durazo raked, and he didn’t stop until his major league career was over seven years later.

Note Durazo’s debut 1999 and Alonso’s 2011 in Cincinnati:

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
Durazo 185 .329 .422 .594 153
Alonso 98 .330 .398 .545 154

Pretty similar starts, though I certainly don’t mean to imply that I’m comparing these two players based on such a small amount of performance data. As mentioned, Alonso’s swing and movements simply remind me of Durazo, and it conveniently fits the narrative that the numbers are very similar.

Physically, they are similar too. Durazo is listed at 6’3’’, 240 on Baseball-Reference. Alonso: 6’2’’, 240. Both left-handed hitters. Durazo ended up hitting .281/.381/.487 in his major league career, split between Arizona and Oakland. Alonso has posted inferior numbers so far in his career (.292/.370/.466) – and that’s in the minor leagues.

Durazo played in Mexico prior to the majors and only spent part of one season in the minors before debuting in Arizona, so we can’t really compare minor league stats. He hit .404/.489/.703 that year in Double-A and Triple-A.

In the field, Durazo provided limited defensive value at first (he was traded to Oakland and became a DH) and he wasn’t particularly fast or athletic. The scouting reports on Alonso are similar. He’s not out there for his defense or base running.

Scouting or performance

Let’s face it, Alonso’s scouting reputation far exceeds his actual performance thus far. Based on the numbers, Clay Davenport* projects Alonso as a .260/.335/.400 hitter in his prime. That isn’t bad, especially in Petco, but it isn’t really what we are expecting out of the Padres new first basemen.

*Davenport adjusts raw minor league statistics for league, age, park effects, and various other factors to get a better estimate of the player’s major league potential.

Yonder Alonso = Adrian Gonzalez

Finishing where we started, PECOTA currently lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso’s number one comparable player. Number two: Jeff Clement.

Interestingly enough, there might be something to the Alonso-Gonzalez comp. Though Gonzalez was always young(er) for his league, both players put up underwhelming minor league statistics (but were highly-rated amongst scouts). Gonzalez, of course, blossomed into the player we had the pleasure of watching in San Diego for five seasons.

Then again, there is probably something to the Alonso-Clement comp, too.

As you know, there’s a large degree of uncertainty in player evaluation, especially prospects. Here’s hoping Alonso turns out more like Gonzalez than Clement. But I’ll settle for Durazo.

Rockies acquire Marco Scutaro from Red Sox

January 22, 2012 in Myron Logan, other teams with 3 Comments

In a curious move, the Colorado Rockies acquired shortstop/second basemen Marco Scutaro from the Boston Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen.

Scutaro will make a more-than-reasonable $6 million in 2012 before becoming a free agent in 2013.

He’ll slide over to second in Colorado, with Troy Tulowitzki entrenched at short, and offer an immediate upgrade over Chris Nelson. Over the last three seasons with Toronto and Boston, Scutaro has hit .284/.356/.404 (102 OPS+). Defensively, he’s probably a little below average at short, but should project right around average at second base.

He just turned 36, but he’s a nice short-term pick-up for Colorado. Over the past four seasons, he’s averaged 3.3 rWAR and 3.2 fWAR.

The curious part of the deal is that the Red Sox don’t really have a legitimate replacement at shortstop and they got back only Mortensen for Scutaro and his favorable contract. Mortensen isn’t anything more than roster-filler, at this point, as neither his major or minor league track records inspire much confidence.

In 95 major league innings, Mortensen’s posted a 5.12 ERA, a 1.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.5 HR/9. It’s hard to project anything better than replacement level production out of Mortensen at the major league level.

The Red Sox will likely use Scutaro’s money to sign a pitcher, perhaps Roy Oswalt, but it’s strange to see them working on a tight budget.

Follow Friar Forecast on Twitter

January 21, 2012 in blogging, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 0 Comments

It’s the weekend — a good time for a little blog-promotion.

Many of you already follow us, but if not consider following @FriarForecast on Twitter.

We don’t get too carried away with tweeting, but you’ll find links to our content here, links to notable stuff around the interwebs, and some good ol’ Padres/baseball/sabermetric discussion. That’s a combination you cannot resist.

Thanks!

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