Archive - Myron Logan RSS Feed

Gallagher dealt to Pirates

July 7, 2010 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 2 Comments

The San Diego Padres acquired RHP Sean Gallagher as the PTBNL in the Scott Hairston trade last summer (that also netted Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano). Now the Padres have traded Gallagher to the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash considerations, after designating him for assignment last week to make room for Tim Stauffer.

Gallagher’s solid minor league track record has not yet translated to the Major League level, as he has put up a career 5.08 FIP in 173 innings. In an organization filled with pitching, apparently there just was not room to retain Gallagher. It might be a decent move for Pittsburgh, as Gallagher has a solid enough repertoire and is under control through 2013.

Believe the hype

July 7, 2010 in Myron Logan, Stephen Strasburg with 0 Comments

Dan Schlossberg at Seamheads thinks that we shouldn’t believe the hype surrounding Stephen Strasburg, noting:

While it’s true that Strasburg’s various road appearances produced sellout crowds, the kid lost three of his first five games. He’s living proof that reaching triple digits on the radar gun may impress the media but does not necessarily intimidate the opposition

The article in general warns us that Strasburg may not win 300 games (he likely won’t) and that he has not yet earned his place amongst baseball’s best (certainly arguable).

Personally, I do not think that we need to wait for Strasburg’s career to be over before we can enjoy it. This is a guy who, after all of the aforementioned hype throughout his college and minor league career, responded by delivering a 14 strikeout, no walk game in front of a sellout crowd in Washington — and on baseball’s center stage. 

It’s not just that Strasburg is off to a great start, with his 2.45 ERA over his first six starts. It is how he’s doing it – 53 strikeouts, 10 walks, and 2 home runs in 37 innings. A 98-99 mile per hour fastball, 96 MPH two-seamer, an excellent curveball, and a 90+ MPH changeup.

Some of Schlossberg’s points are valid. Sure, we shouldn’t anoint Strasburg a 300 (or 200) game winner during his first season. But winning 300 games is so rare that it shouldn’t be a prerequisite to achieving greatness. And it’s fine to say that Strasburg hasn’t earned an all-star spot yet, or that he hasn’t proven he’s the best pitcher in the game.

But Strasburg is certainly not a product of hype. He has been hyped, unlike any pitcher in recent times, because of what he’s done on the baseball field, and because of the attributes he has that allow him to throw a baseball the way he does. As baseball fans, we don’t need the media to explain Strasburg’s greatness. We can see it every time he takes the mound, and we want to celebrate it while it’s happening, not when it’s all said and done.

Buy or sell: Is there any question?

July 3, 2010 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 15 Comments

Normally a team sitting at 47-33 in early July, with a 3.5 game lead in the division, is almost certainly going to be “buyers” at the deadline. The idea, of course, is that a team in that position is set up to make a run at the playoffs, if not the World Series. Adding players at the deadline both increases the team’s chance of making the playoffs and going deep into the playoffs once they get there.

The San Diego Padres (47-33, 3.5 game lead, conveniently just like our theoretical team above), then, are going to be buyers at the deadline, right? Right? Well, according to Dave Cameron and Tim Marchman, maybe they shouldn’t be. Marchman, I think, is a little extreme and off-base with his take, and he receives some deserved, if not slightly over the top, criticism at GLB. Cameron is more fair with his assessment.

Anyway, the issue, if you don’t read the articles, is that the Padres are not your typical 47-33 first place club. Yes, they are playing good, and undoubtedly they are better than the preseason projections. However, there’s little doubt that they *should* come back to Earth a bit in the second half. The argument can be made that they should stick with their original plan, before all of this winning baseball got in the way, which was likely to trade players like Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell at the deadline, getting as much value out of their star players as possible, and rebuilding for a future perennial contender.

That’s a fair argument and I don’t think it is crazy, but I am not going to make it. The old adage, “flags fly forever,” rings true. Sure, the Padres could look to build a powerhouse in, say, 2012 or 13, but that plan – acquiring a “can’t miss” prospect or two for veteran stars with expiring contracts – might not materialize either.  Meanwhile, the Padres sit in first place, and adding a couple of legitimate players at the deadline will only increase the likelihood that they will be playing post-season baseball this season, and if not, at least be in contention through September. It is not easy to build a .588 team with a good shot at the playoffs, so once it happens, even if by accident, it doesn’t usually make sense to disassemble it.

Further, giving up on a season like this, even if it is the correct decision long-term, will never sit well with a fan base. While you can’t always try to please the fans – Jed Hoyer was part of a Red Sox front office that traded Nomar Garciaparra during the 2004 season; it turned out okay – it would be scary to see the reaction in San Diego after blowing up a first place team and dealing away the franchise player.

Three years of Friar Forecast

July 1, 2010 in blogging, Myron Logan with 4 Comments

Earlier last month, Friar Forecast turned three years old. Since the blog (in its current state) made its debut in June 2007, there has been only one month in which it did not see an update (September 2008). Overall, we have had 712 posts, good for an average of about 24 per month.

I just know you want to see that in graphical form:

FF

Seriously, though, when I started this blog as a freshman in college, I had no clue that it would be around three years later*. And if you read some of my early posts, you probably had the same doubts. We have certainly come a long way since then, and I like to think the coverage we are providing now is on par with the best of the Padres blogs and websites in all of cyberspace. If not, we’ll get there.

Thanks to *everyone* who has been a reader or helped us out in any way. Here’s to another three years!

*Big thanks go out to Daniel, who has run this blog for the past 15 months and really kept it alive.

Mat Latos and the innings limit

June 23, 2010 in Mat Latos, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 6 Comments

Before the season, it was reported that Mat Latos would probably be limited to around 150 innings. The idea is to limit a young pitcher’s workload and to gradually work the pitcher up to a 200+ innings/year level. Pushing a young pitcher who may not be prepared for the rigors of ~200 major league innings is a recipe for disaster.

Or so they say. This theory is largely based on the “Verducci Effect,” which says that pitchers under the age of 25 who experience an increase in workload of 30 or more innings see injury and/or a decrease in performance in the subsequent season. The Verducci Effect has been challenged and debunked, at least to some degree. There’s still a ton of work to be done in predicting injuries — we certainly don’t have any definitive answers, especially on any individual pitcher — thus we cannot just say that a dramatic increase in innings pitched for a young hurler will lead to injury and decreased performance. It might, it might not.

Anyhow, before the season, the San Diego Padres probably did not expect to be sitting atop the NL West in late June, with a 42-29 record. If the Padres play just .450 baseball from here on out, they will finish with 83 wins – in other words, at this point, a playoff run is very probable. Prior to the season, the Padres also probably did not expect Mat Latos to be the staff ace, carrying a 2.93 ERA in 86 innings (8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, .94 HR/9).

With these new factors – the Padres playoff chances and Latos’ performance – added to the mix, it complicates the decision-making process regarding Latos’ workload. Sure, it’s a nice problem to have, but it’s also one that is extremely hard to make. Flags fly forever, as they say, and Latos is an important part of the Padres success. If he keeps pitching at this rate, I predict he’ll make about 31 starts, good for 190 innings. If the Padres cut him off at 150 innings, he’ll probably miss six or seven starts – or late August and all of September. Critical starts when the Padres will need him most.*

There’s the other side of the coin, too. Is it worth risking Latos’ future in an attempt to reach the playoffs right now? Latos is under control and cheap, and he has a chance to provide a lot of surplus value over the next few years, perhaps developing into a Jake Peavy-like ace, if things break right. Throwing him 190 innings in his first full season, many of them likely critical, high leverage innings down the stretch run, not to mention potential playoff innings, could do a lot to damage Latos’ future impact with the organization.

The good news is that the Padres don’t have to make a decision anytime soon, and they indicate as much in an article by Bill Center at the Union-Tribune. By the time we get to late August, maybe things will take care of themselves, and the decision will be made easier. Or, perhaps the Padres will be in the thick of a playoff race and Latos will still be performing well, making the decision that much tougher. We’ll have to wait and see.

*If there really is a set number, like 150, it might make sense for the Padres to rest Latos now and bring him back for the stretch-run. This would certainly be an out-on-a-limb strategy, with potential negative side-effects, but it might make sense, saving Latos – and having him well rested – for the late-season playoff chase.

Page 20 of 33« First...10«1819202122»30...Last »