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Friday links: Ownership transition delayed

January 13, 2012 in links, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

The San Diego Padres ownership transition from John Moores to Jeff Moorad’s group was delayed on Thursday, when owners failed to vote on its approval. It appears that there are some financial concerns surrounding the groups’ ability to take over the Padres.

Important to note, the owners didn’t vote down Moorad’s group; they simply didn’t vote at all. Apparently the vote will take place after more information is revealed. It could be done by conference call, according to Bud Selig. A 75 percent vote is needed for approval (Dex has all the details).

It’s just business as usual for the Padres this offseason. Upheaval in the front office, big trades involving Mat Latos and Anthony Rizzo, acquiring Carlos Quentin, now complications regarding the sale of the club. It’s been a strange few months, to say the least.

Still, the ownership transition wasn’t expected to be completed for a few more years, so it’s well ahead of schedule – thanks to urging by John Moores. It’s obviously hard to tell the significance of this delay. It could be a minor snag or the beginning of the end for the Moorad-led group. We’ll have to wait and see.

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Corey Brock discusses the Padres offseason, including the Anthony Rizzo trade and Jesus Guzman’s role on the 2012 club.

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At Friarhood, Peter Friberg analyzes shortstop prospect Beamer Weems. In 990 minor league plate appearances, Weems has hit .235/.362/.354. Last season at Double-A San Antonio, Weems finally showed some pop, hitting nine homers (and 27 extra-base hits) in 309 PAs. He had hit just three home runs prior to his 2012 campaign.

Weems’ plate discipline and power surge make him an interesting prospect. Peter notes Weems’ very solid defensive reputation, and that’s where his value probably lies. If he can become a plus defender at shortstop in the bigs, he doesn’t have to do all that much with the bat.

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Melvin takes a look at the big trades of the offseason and notes that the difference between Anthony Rizzo and Yonder Alonso may end up deciding just how good (or bad) these moves were.

I still think the two first baseman are close in overall value, but obviously the Byrnes’ regime isn’t as high on Rizzo. Jed Hoyer certainly feels differently. If anything, dealing Latos for Alonso (and company) and then flipping Rizzo off to Hoyer in Chicago shows that Byrnes, while seemingly similar to Hoyer in background, has entirely different plans for the future of the Padres organization than the former general manager did.

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Avenging Jack Murphy has some deep philosophical thought on plungers and relates that to the Padres offseason. In all seriousness, I share a numbers of his concerns about the strange proceedings post-Hoyer. 

The new digs

January 11, 2012 in blogging, Myron Logan with 19 Comments

We’ve recently installed a new theme here at Friar Forecast, as you may have noticed.

It’s a work in progress, for now, as it’s highly customizable once I dig into the code. I am far from a Web designer, so the customization process can be a bit … challenging, to say the least.

You can see some of the new features already, though. The Twitter and Feedburner icons are located on the right side of the navigation bar, easily visible but not too intrusive.

For now, you can see the author of the post by looking at the categories (on the top) or at the end of the post (where you can click through and view all of that authors posts). At some point, I would like there to be a byline at the top of each post, but we’ll have to figure that out.

My main concern is usability, and I hope the installation of this new theme will enhance your experience here at Friar Forecast. I’m particularly hopeful you notice an increase in the speed of the site, as that is one critical element to usability. I’m a bit obsessive about Website speed; I can’t stand overly slow sites.

There are likely a number of things that will be changing over the coming days/weeks, but what you currently see is the basis for the new look of the site.

I hope you like it, but please let me know what’s working and what isn’t. What needs to be added/deleted? Any comments on the new look and the overall usability of the site are welcome (encouraged!), either here or via email.

Thanks,
Myron

Padres acquire Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo

January 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 7 Comments

If we learned anything from Jed Hoyer’s stay in San Diego, trading with him probably isn’t the best idea. With the likes of Theo Epstein and Jason McLeod as reinforcements, it doesn’t help matters.

On Friday, Josh Byrnes and the San Diego Padres traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right hander Zach Cates to Hoyer and the Cubs for right-handed reliever Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

When the Padres acquired first basemen Yonder Alonso as part of the Mat Latos trade, Anthony Rizzo was immediately expendable. While there’s certainly debate about who will be better, Alonso or Rizzo, it was obvious that the current regime liked Alonso’s bat as a better long-term fit. He’s more polished at this point and has had major league success, and he may be better suited for Petco.

Rizzo struggled mightily in 153 plate appearances with the Padres last season, hitting .141/.281/.242. He struck out in 30 percent of his PAs. Still, 150 major league PAs do not negate over 1,500 in the minors. Further, Rizzo had one of his finest overall years in 2011, hitting .331/.404/.652 in Triple-A Tucson. He pounded 61 extra-base hits in 93 games.

Despite the major league hiccup, Rizzo was still a consensus top 10 prospect in the Padres system this offseason. In fact, he was recently rated as the number one prospect in a highly-regarded system by Baseball America and John Sickels.

Some are still concerned with how Rizzo’s offensive game will transfer to the big leagues. As Kevin Goldstein notes, he’s struggled against lefties, he has a hitch in his swing, and he tends to get pull happy. Further, left-handed pull power probably isn’t the best fit for Petco Park. Though that’s not a reason to dismiss a prospect, it may have helped vault the more well-rounded Alonso ahead of Rizzo on the organizational depth chart.

Warts and all, Rizzo will have a chance to excel for the rebuilding Cubs, and he’ll get full support from a front office who believes in him. Jed Hoyer has now acquired him twice, once with the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez and now with the Cubbies. Theo dealt him to the Padres, but he received Adrian Gonzalez in return, so we can’t blame him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rizzo turn into a solid everyday starter at some point in 2012.

The Padres also gave up right-handed starter Zach Cates. Cates, drafted under Hoyer and McLeod in the third round of the 2010 amateur draft, pitched 118 innings at Single-A Fort Wayne last season. He posted a 4.73 ERA and walked four per nine, but he struck out an encouraging 22 percent. He also surrendered only four home runs.

The former catcher isn’t highly-rated in the Padres current system, but he’s a little more than just throw-in. Drafted in the third round, reportedly with solid mechanics and stuff (with less wear and tear than most pitchers), and a solid debut campaign make him an intriguing lower level prospect.

The main piece acquired by San Diego is reliever Andrew Cashner. This offseason, Kevin Goldstein rated Cashner fourth on the Cubs under-25 top ten list, ahead of all but two of their current top ten prospects (and Starlin Castro). He said:

Cashner has looked good stuff-wise in his return from injuries, but he’s likely bullpen-only at this point, and his command is far from all the way back.

The Twitter-verse has already confirmed that Cashner will be used in the pen next season, with a chance to develop into a starter (so says Byrnes). It sounds like he’s better off in the bullpen, where he can reportedly touch 100 on the radar gun.

Cashner threw a total of 15 and a third innings in 2011, between the Cubs and the minor leagues, thanks to shoulder issues all season long. In 2010, he pitched 54 and a third innings for the Cubs out of the pen, striking out 8.3 and walking five per nine. His HR/9 was 1.3.

Drafted four times, Cashner finally signed with the Cubs after being selected 18th overall in the 2008 amateur draft. He spent his first three years in the minor leagues working primarily out of the rotation, until he was called up in 2010. He had mixed results as a starter.

In 2009, he pitched 100 and a third innings in High-A and Double-A to a 2.60 ERA, but he K’ed only 18 percent. He did only gave up one homer. His strikeout rate jumped to 27 percent in 2010 in 59 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Again, he allowed just one homer.

In 182 minor league innings, Cashner allowed an off-the-charts good three home runs. He struck out two batters for every walk, and posted a 2.82 ERA. Cashner was well-regarded in the minors: Kevin Goldstein rated him as the fifth best Cubs prospect in 2010 and he cracked Baseball America’s top 100 that same year.

Injury concerns plus, as Goldstein notes, a high-effort delivery and low minor league pitch counts as a starter lead many to believe he’ll end up in the pen, which is where he’s been with the Cubs and where he’ll start as the Padres. The chance that he’ll develop into a starter is always there, but for now we have to view him as a reliever.

Big velocity with the fastball and a solid slider, combined with solid groundball and home run rates, will give Cashner a chance to be devastating in the back of the Padres pen. Petco will help the home run issues he had in the majors in 2010. Cashner is arbitration eligible in 2013 and will reach free agency in 2017, according to Cot’s Contracts (he’s a super-two). edit: there are conflicting reports as to Cahsner’s super-two status.

The Padres also acquired center fielder Kyung-Min Na. The 20-year-old was excellent in Rookie Ball in 2011, hitting .360/.453/.450 in 119 plate appearances. He quickly advanced to Low-A ball where he hit .171/.276/.184 in 88 PAs. In Single-A he rebounded some, hitting .258/.333/.303 in 100 PAs.

That short stint in Rookie Ball in the lone bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming early track record. Na has recorded just 16 extra base hits in 519 minor league plate appearances. He’s still young and I suppose offers some upside, but he has a lot to prove before one can think of him as a legit prospect.

If the Padres were a competitive team with a hole in the back of the pen, this deal would be understandable, if not favorable. They aren’t expected to compete, however, and they’ve been able to pick up solid relievers off the scrap heap for years now, thanks to good scouting/coaching and generous Petco Park.

Rizzo was expendable, but there was really no rush to trade the 22-year-old. If he performed well in Triple-A again, surely a contending team in need of some pop would come along and offer a package better than Cashner/Na. Let’s not forget the Padres had to include Cates, who probably has a better long-term outlook at this point than Na.

This move may help the Padres in 2012, but it won’t help them much long-term. A late-inning reliever, even one as potentially dominant as Cashner, isn’t what they should be shopping for right now, especially if it involves dealing away an everyday player as potentially valuable as Rizzo.

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Padres deal Anthony Rizzo to Cubs

January 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with Comments Off

Not coming as a huge surprise with the recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso, the San Diego Padres have traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right-handed pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs for right hander Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

While the Padres perhaps lost some leverage when acquiring Alonso, this appears to be a surprising small haul for a prospect of Rizzo’s potential. We’ll have more later on, giving the trade some time to digest. Feel free to discuss here.

Friday links

January 6, 2012 in links, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

We hope you’ve enjoyed the recent influx in content here at Friar Forecast. We plan to keep it that way as we get closer to the season. Keep visiting and interacting with the site (we love comments). And make sure to follow us on Twitter. Now the links ….

San Diego Padres manager Bud Black talks pitching with David Lauria of FanGraphs. FanGraphs also has a couple of pieces on Petco Park’s impact on offense (more specifically, how it might affect Carlos Quentin).  Note that while Petco is a more friendly home run park for right-handed hitters, it suppresses total offense for righties and lefties about equally (it’s tougher on doubles — a more frequent event — for right-handed batters).

Dex loves the Quentin pick-up, and over at GLB he posted a poll asking how he’ll perform in 2012. Of the 300 some voters, 72 percent believe Quentin will play at least 120 games and 53 percent think he’ll homer 20 times or more. I wasn’t a big fan of the deal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Quentin gets 500 plate appearances and hits 20-25 homers.

Bill Center at The Union-Tribune (now with better URL) has an article on the Padres potentially extending Cameron Maybin and/or Carlos Quentin. Quentin will be 29 next year and, unless he has a breakout-type year, I can’t see the Padres extending the already slow, injury-prone slugger into his early thirties.

At Friarhood, Steve Adler posted an interview with recently jettisoned right hander Mat Latos. In the interview Latos does little to squelch the notion that he may have some maturity issues. He’s still only 24 years old and I doubt it had much to do with his trade to Cincinnati (Josh Byrnes has said as much). The Padres got a really good package for him. Still, “maturity issues” aren’t exactly a trait you’d look for in a potential multi-million dollar investment.

Don’t take this as sour grapes, though. Latos will have every chance to prove the naysayers wrong in Cincinnati. I wouldn’t be surprised if he remains a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter over the next few years with the Reds. Like I mentioned, this trade was largely a baseball one.

On the prospect front, Baseball America reports that Adys Portillo made strides in the Venezuelan League, including a five inning, one hit performance in November. Randy Smith on Portillo:

 He has a “burning desire to be successful. Even after getting hit around, he bounces back the next day,” Smith said. “I think he gets it; he understands he is a work in progress and does not get too high on a good day or too low on a bad one.”

As a 19-year-old, Portillo struggled last season in his first real taste of Single-A ball. His strikeout rate actually improved (25 percent), which is encouraging, but he walked six per nine and posted a 7.11 ERA in 82 and a third innings.

Chicken Friars takes a look at the Padres middle infield and starting rotation heading into 2012. The middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett is not one to get too excited about. If anything, though, their combined production should improve in 2012, as they should regress back toward career norms.

The greatest Website in the history of the Internet, Cot’s Contracts, is moving to Baseball Prospectus. The look and feel will remain largely the same, there’s some extra tools to play around with, and it’ll remain free. Not much to complain about.

I’m still writing at The Hardball Times every other week. My latest piece is one the Boston Red Sox bullpen.

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