Our own Ben Davey also writes for MadFriars about the San Diego Padres minor league system. Check out his recently posted interview with Matt Eddy, the Padres expert at Baseball America.
Lots of great discussion on BA’s methodology, Rizzo and Alonso, Drew Cumberland’s return, and the Padres system in general. Both articles are free, but consider subscribing to MadFriars for the rest of their top-shelf prospect coverage if you’re not already.
The San Diego Padres have acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox for right-handed pitcher Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez.
Carlos Quentin, who has spent significant time in both outfield corners, enters his final year of arbitration. He’s estimated to make $7.5 million in 2012 before entering free agency in 2013, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Quentin is above average with the bat, hitting .257/.352/.505 in four seasons in Chicago. In 483 plate appearances in 2011, Quentin hit .245/.340/.499 – numbers almost identical to his career line. Quentin has very good power and much of his on-base skills are due to extremely high hit-by-pitch totals (78 over the past four years).
He’s a solid offensive player, but he’ll leave hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular for Petco, and it’ll remain to be seen how his fly-ball-centric offense will adjust (Quentin has averaged near 50 percent fly balls over the past three years). Every hitter is hurt by Petco, but some adjust better than others .
Further hampering Quentin’s value is his defense. Over his career in the outfield, Quentin is -22 by DRS and -32 by UZR (-8 of that thanks to his arm rating), according to FanGraphs. His Fans Scouting Report numbers have also not been encouraging, with only one attribute (arm strength) being rated above average. Overall, he doesn’t appear to be a good outfielder.
At an expected $7-8 million in 2012, there isn’t a lot of value to be had here, especially on a team not expected to compete.
The Padres didn’t give up any top prospects, but they did give up a couple of intriguing pieces.
Prior to last season, Simon Castro was rated as the 58th best prospect in MLB by Baseball America. Kevin Goldstein had him pegged as the Padres second best prospect before ‘11.
Castro failed to build on his promising resume and when the Padres acquired a slew of shiny new prospects, he fell to Prospect Obscurity Land (outside of BA’s and BP’s top 10).
Check out his peripherals in Double-A from 2010 and 2011:
| Year | Inn | K/PA | BB/PA | BABiP | FIP |
| 2010 | 129.7 | 20.2% | 6.8% | .271 | 3.34 |
| 2011 | 89.3 | 19.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 3.80 |
That looks like largely the same pitcher. His walk rate actually went down, his strike out percentage went down only slightly, and his average on balls in play (of which he’d have the least control over) skyrocketed.
There are obviously some concerns. His groundball rate dropped (and his home run rate subsequently increased), his serious struggles in limited Triple-A innings are alarming, and the general decline in his strikeout rate as he climbs the ladder is not encouraging.
Still, if you’re telling me this guy was a legitimate prospect before last season and now he’s an afterthought, well, I’m not quite buying it. Either your prospect ratings weren’t that good to begin with, or you’re overreacting to his 2011 performance.
While losing Castro stings, Pedro Hernandez may be the bigger prize here. He’s left-handed, he doesn’t turn 23 until April, and he’s performed well at every level besides Triple-A. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 5.4. He’s K’ed eight per nine while walking just 1.5, in 343 minor league innings.
There are concerns, too, of course. His size, mainly, as he’s only 5-10, 200. Further, his stuff isn’t overpowering as his fastball sits in the high-80s.
Castro and Hernandez aren’t top prospects, and there’s a chance that they don’t develop any further. Still, why deal them for a one-year rental on a team not expected to make a true playoff push in 2012? Sure, they could deal Quentin at the deadline or pick up a draft pick or two next year if they decide to hold onto him (edit: probably won’t get picks, thanks to the new CBA).
Personally, I’d rather they held onto Casto and Hernandez or targeted someone with more long-term value than Carlos Quentin. This isn’t a terrible trade by any means and it doesn’t change my (still optimistic) outlook on Josh Byrnes, but I can’t say it gets my Fred McGriff stamp of endorsement.
Yesterday I wrote about the prospect of the San Diego Padres extending center fielder Cameron Maybin to a long-term deal.
I estimated that a six-year, $40 million deal (plus an option) would be fair to both Maybin and the Padres, giving the center fielder financial security for life and the Padres a chance to maximize surplus value. The proposed six-year deal would buyout Maybin’s first two free agent eligible seasons and keep him around beyond 2015.
In the comments, Websoulsurfer said :
I think Tabata’s 6 yr/$14.25 million deal with 3 option years that could bring total value to $37.25 million w/the Pirates is a good guideline to what kind of offer Maybin will be looking at.
Any extension granted by the Padres would have to include at least one or two seasons when Maybin was a potential free agent — So you are talking of at least a five or six year deal worth at least $15-$18 million.
Personally, I don’t see him signing for a figure that low. Unless Maybin is risk-averse or not too high on his own abilities, there is little reason for him to sign such a deal.
What do you say?
Recent reports are stating that the San Diego Padres will renew contract negotiations with Cameron Maybin in January (h/t: Chicken Friars). This is good news.
As we’ve discussed lately, the Padres have generally avoided locking up their young players to team-friendly, long-term contracts. Obviously signing a young player to a long-term deal involves some risk from the organization’s side, but the reward is having a productive player under contract for far below market value.
In his first season in San Diego, 24-year-old Cameron Maybin hit .264/.323/.393 in 569 plate appearances, patrolling center field in Petco Park. Maybin’s game offers speed (40 for 48 on stolen bases), defense (+9.5 UZR, +12 DRS), and a promising bat (it was above-average in 2011) in an exciting combination.
Depending on your source, Maybin was worth anywhere from 2.9 WAR to 4.7 WAR in 2011, with the difference due to both offensive and defensive value. Either way, Maybin was very good in 2011, and he’s just entering into his prime.
Maybin isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2013 and he’s under Padres control through 2015. From the Padres perspective, it would make a lot of sense to get Maybin locked up for more than four years to avoid the arbitration process all together and also (perhaps more importantly) buy out some free agent years.
The recent deal that Tampa Bay and Matt Moore agreed to was five years, $14 million (with options that could extend the contract to eight years, $40 million). Maybin is more established at the major league level, a position player, and further along in service-time – he’s going to want more than $14 million to sign on long-term.
Let’s take a look at Maybin’s expected market value over the next six years:
| Year | Proj. WAR | Est. Salary (M) | Market value (M) |
| 2012 | 2.5 | $.5 | $12.5 |
| 2013 | 2.8 | $5 | $14.8 |
| 2014 | 3.1 | $8 | $17.4 |
| 2015 | 3.1 | $12 | $18.3 |
| 2016 | 2.8 | $17.4 | $17.4 |
| 2017 | 2.5 | $16.3 | $16.3 |
As usual, there are a lot of assumptions and estimations being made here. Consider these numbers more for illustration than any serious evaluation.
If the Padres play it year-by-year with Maybin and he performs well, they’ll net over $35 million in surplus value through 2015. In 2016, he’ll become a free agent and likely won’t be returning to San Diego. In extending Maybin, the goal should be to grab a couple of those free agent years to keep the center fielder in San Diego a few years longer.
There is incentive to play it year-by-year for the Padres – they’ll still get a ton of value out of Maybin if he produces, and if he doesn’t there isn’t a long-term commitment. Still, if they want to avoid the the arbitration process and keep Maybin around for more than four years, they should try to lock him up now.
The Friar Forecast recommendation: six years, $40 million (2018 club option $14 million).
Maybin gets $40 million guaranteed, a decent little sum of money. The Padres lock up their (hopefully) stud center fielder at a very reasonable cost, buying out two of his free agent seasons (potentially three, if they pick up the option).
The only way for the Padres to keep someone like Maybin around after 2015 is by taking a calculated risk and locking him up early in his career. We’ll see if they decide to do it.
We would like to wish you a happy holiday season from the Friar Forecast Headquarters. May you and yours have a wonderful time.
And thanks for sticking around these parts. Things were slow for a while, but we’re back and we’ve got plenty planned for the new year. The support is much appreciated.
-Myron