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Rockies acquire Marco Scutaro from Red Sox

January 22, 2012 in Myron Logan, other teams with 3 Comments

In a curious move, the Colorado Rockies acquired shortstop/second basemen Marco Scutaro from the Boston Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen.

Scutaro will make a more-than-reasonable $6 million in 2012 before becoming a free agent in 2013.

He’ll slide over to second in Colorado, with Troy Tulowitzki entrenched at short, and offer an immediate upgrade over Chris Nelson. Over the last three seasons with Toronto and Boston, Scutaro has hit .284/.356/.404 (102 OPS+). Defensively, he’s probably a little below average at short, but should project right around average at second base.

He just turned 36, but he’s a nice short-term pick-up for Colorado. Over the past four seasons, he’s averaged 3.3 rWAR and 3.2 fWAR.

The curious part of the deal is that the Red Sox don’t really have a legitimate replacement at shortstop and they got back only Mortensen for Scutaro and his favorable contract. Mortensen isn’t anything more than roster-filler, at this point, as neither his major or minor league track records inspire much confidence.

In 95 major league innings, Mortensen’s posted a 5.12 ERA, a 1.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.5 HR/9. It’s hard to project anything better than replacement level production out of Mortensen at the major league level.

The Red Sox will likely use Scutaro’s money to sign a pitcher, perhaps Roy Oswalt, but it’s strange to see them working on a tight budget.

Gwynn Jr. a Dodger

December 8, 2010 in contracts, fielding, Myron Logan, other teams, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

Tony Gwynn Jr. recently signed a one year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers for just under $700k.

The deal is being labeled as a steal for LA by smart folks around the blogosphere. While I agree that, in this market, it’s definitely a nice pick-up to add Gwynn Jr. for under a million bucks, I’m not sure it’s that great of a deal.

Gwynn Jr. had a decent offensive year in 2009, posting a .311 wOBA. However, last season in 339 PAs he was dreadful, hitting .204/.304/.287 (.276 wOBA). However, in those two seasons, he posted WAR values, courtesy of FanGraphs, of 2.4 and 1.7 respectively.

That value is largely due to his centerfield defense, which according to UZR says that he was 18 runs above average in 207 games in center, and 23 runs above average in 218 total games in the outfield with the Padres.

We know that he *probably* wasn’t really that good, due simply to regression to the mean – the fact that, if he played another 218 games under the same conditions, he would likely rate closer to average.

But that is true with all extreme fielding performance. The question I’m more interested in is if Gwynn Jr. is even close to that good defensively. There’s a well known theory (or fact) that it’s harder to hit in Petco because of the size and layout of the park and the heavy marine air. Well, if that is true for hitters, wouldn’t the opposite be true for fielders? The heavy air will, in theory, hold would-be doubles or home runs in the air just long enough to make somewhat routine catches look like great ones.

While some defensive metrics (like UZR) have build-in park adjustments, I’m just not sure how much I trust the numbers, given all the speculation about potential biases in the data that may impact the final calculations – before we even consider the park effects.

While it may look like I’m ripping Gwynn’s defense *after* he leaves for the Dodgers, as I’ve touted his fielding ability numerous times here in the past, it’s more a realization that picking up players solely (or mostly) because of their impressive fielding stats can be a dangerous move, much more so than picking up a solid hitter with suspect fielding numbers.

In the end, it’s still a good move for the Dodgers, as $700K isn’t going to kill them, even if Gwynn Jr. – worst case – becomes a defensive liability in center. More than likely, he’s a little above average in the field, quite a bit below with the bat, and he’ll be a solid enough pick-up for LA.

For the Padres, losing Gwynn Jr. could have stung a bit if they were planning to compete in 2011, but with the current state of transition, losing a fringe guy like Gwynn Jr. just isn’t that significant.*

*That’s without considering the fact that you have to see “Gwynn” on the back of a Dodgers jersey again.

Is Jayson Werth’s new deal *that* bad?

December 7, 2010 in contracts, Myron Logan, other teams with 4 Comments

The Washington Nationals shook the baseball world on Sunday by signing Jayson Werth to a seven year, $126 million deal.

Werth is a very good player, a right fielder who does a little bit of everything. He’s coming off his best season yet, hitting .296/.388/.532 with the Phillies. That said, Werth is far from a premium talent, and perhaps more importantly he’s going to be 32 years old next season.

Here’s a basic forecast for Werth:

Year Werth’s age Werth’s WAR $/WAR Salary
2011 32 4.5 $4.5 $20.3
2012 33 4.0 5 20
2013 34 3.5 5.5 19.3
2014 35 2.8 6.0 16.8
2015 36 2.1 6.5 13.7
2016 37 1.4 7.0 9.8
2017 38 .7 7.5 5.3

That’s a total of $105M over the seven years, quite a bit under Werth’s actual salary of $126M over that time.

It looks like a might be situation where the Nats will be fine for a few years, but Werth becomes a burden later in the contract. If the Nationals envision themselves competing in a couple of years, with Strasburg, Harper, and company, and Werth becomes a key part of their first playoff run, the deal may end up being a good one – at least a defensible one.

In the end, it looks like a bad deal, though not a historical bad one. If Werth were a few years younger, it might be a perfectly fair contract, but guaranteeing an aging slugger with Werth’s profile $18M per for seven years probably isn’t the best use of resources, especially for a team in Washington’s situation.

*The chart above is merely one simplistic implementation of the numbers, and should not be taken too seriously.

Rockies extend Troy Tulowitzki … forever

November 30, 2010 in contracts, Myron Logan, other teams with 6 Comments

Continuing our tour around the NL West, news broke yesterday that the Colorado Rockies have extended Troy Tulowitzki to a six year deal that starts in 2015. That means the Rockies have control of their star shortstop through the 2020 season.

Tulowitzki will earn $38.75 million through 2014 on his current contract, then the extension kicks in and Tulo will make $119M from 2015 through 2020 (almost $20M per season). Locking up a star player is usually a positive, especially when you’re buying out a couple of arbitration and/or free agent years and have the player under control through his prime years.

The puzzling aspect of this deal, however, is that is doesn’t actually start – the extension, that is – until Tulo’s age-30 season and it ends when he’ll be 35 years old. Any long-term deal is hard to evaluate, for various reasons, but this one is nearly impossible.

You have to gauge, at minimum, three different aspects surrounding the deal going forward: Tulowitzki’s projected performance, the Rockies competitiveness going forward, and finally the future economic climate in baseball.

This deal could turn out to be an absolute steal if Tulowitzki continues to develop into a star player (in three of his four full seasons his WAR has been over five) and remains one into his thirties, the Rockies field competitive teams over those years, and baseball salaries show a solid increase over that period.

On the other hand it could be a total disaster if one or two of those things don’t come true, with the most emphasis of course being placed on the young shortstop’s performance.

Dodgers sign Jon Garland and Juan Uribe

November 29, 2010 in Myron Logan, other teams with 3 Comments

The Los Angeles Dodgers have made a couple of early offseason moves.

Last week, they signed former San Diego Padre Jon Garland to a one year deal worth $5 million. The contract also has performance incentives worth up to $3M, plus a $8M team option that automatically vests with 190 innings pitched. Curiously, Garland turned down his part of a $6.75M mutual option with the Padres this offseason to become a free agent, only to take a slight pay cut on the open market.

After considering the $.3M buyout Garland received, plus the potential to earn both $8M this year and $8M in 2012, you could argue that he didn’t really take much of a pay cut at all. That said, he certainly didn’t cash in on his fine – at least, superficially – 2010 season with the Padres. It’s tough to get inside his head, obviously, but it appears that he either misread the market and/or his value on it or preferred to pitch in a destination other than San Diego. 

As for the move, it’s a decent one, at best, for the Dodgers. Garland had a nice enough season last year, and he’s been a consistent performer in the past, but he’s certainly not the type of guy you’d project highly going forward. He’ll be leaving pitcher-friendly Petco for the more neutral Dodger Stadium, likely pitching with a worse defense behind him, and he’ll be a year older. Still, he’s a solid enough back-end starter and should fill out a pretty good rotation that includes Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda.

Today, the Dodgers apparently reached an agreement with Juan Uribe, a deal good for three years and $21 million. I’ve seen quite a few negative reactions to the deal, but I really don’t see it as all that bad of a contract. Uribe’s been worth upwards of 5 WAR over the past two seasons, averaging Baseball Reference’s and FanGraphs’ figures. It’s unlikely that he’ll be quite that good going forward, but his ability to play all over the infield certainly helps his value. Not a steal, by any means, but three years at $7M per doesn’t seem unreasonable.

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