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Tuesday notes: roster moves, Venable, the Dodgers, and more

September 25, 2007 in blogging, links, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

In other words, too much for one post …

First of all, the Padres went down again last night. They now fall into a tie with the Phillies in the Wildcard race. Let’s take a look at Chris Young’s numbers before and after the injury:

Before: 118.6 inn, 114 k’s, 39 bb’s, 4 hr’s, 78 hits, 1.82 era
After: 43.3 inn, 43 k’s, 25 bb’s, 5 hr’s, 30 hits, 5.61 era

Clearly, he’s a different pitcher. However, the question becomes how, in my mind, how much of this decline is injury related and how much of it is simply regression. We should have expected Young to decline down the stretch, merely because he was so lucky early in the season. For instance, Young’s hr/fb rate was extremely low in the first half. That’s obviously jumped up of late, with 5 homers over the last 43.3 innings. That being said, there’s likely some injury related things going on here, as well. In the coming weeks I hope to tackle the question looking into the PITCHf/x data on Young (or maybe someone will do it before me). That should at least provide some preliminary answers into the question of why CY has declined so drastically. Whatever the case may be, he’ll be needed in his next start against the Brewers.

Yesterday the Padres may some roster moves, too. They traded for  Astros Outfielder Jason Lane. Lane has struggled mightily this year, hitting .178/.257/.349 in 192 PA’s. He’s had some good year in the past, though, and at this point he’s another body thrown into the depleted outfield mix.

The Padres also called up Chase Headley and Drew Macias. Macias brings a pretty good defensive rep and provides some patience at the plate. FWIW, he has some problems trying to steal bases, whether it be lack of speed, acceleration, bad timing, etc. (John, Geoff, somebody who has seen him?). He’s 58 of 112 (52%) in his minor league career. Since his first year in rookie ball, he’s gone a horrible 43 for 93 (46%). Somebody put the brakes on this kid.

We all know about Chase Headley. For some reason, I think the Padres might try something here with Headley at 3b and Kouz in left (or the other way around). I have no idea if there’s anything to this, but it seems to make some sense.

Moving along, here’s a little column on Will Venable (hat tip: Ducksnorts). It looks like he’s going to play some center field in the Arizona Fall League. First of all, I have my doubts that he can handle center. In BA’s handbook, they said he has average speed and below average range. Anyway, if the Padres think he can handle center, then it’s a fine move. My question would be … why wait until know to make the switch?

Anyhow, when things are going bad in Padre Nation, it’s always nice to look over and see the Dodgers struggling. As the big favorite coming into the year (at least amongst the mainstream media), they’ve underachieved quite a bit and are sitting just 4 games over .500. Apparently, though, the Dodgers troubles don’t stop on the field.

Finally, a few notes on the blog. Yesterday, I got a 3 month subscription to Mad Friars. From what I knew about it before and from kicking around the site a little bit, it looks pretty awesome. It’s run by two guys (one being John Conniff, who has stopped by here : ), I believe, who have access to players, management, games, etc. Pretty awesome stuff if you’re at all interested in the minors. I recommend checking it out (even though I just finally subscribed). Being behind the pay-wall, I probably won’t be able to talk too much about their articles, but I’m sure some interesting discussion will emerge from them.

And on the blog … I’m going to keep this thing going all offseason, if anyone cares. Soon I plan on rolling out some “prospect profile” type posts where we’ll concentrate on an individual prospect. Also, I’m going to make another prospect list this year, so I’ll incorporate the process of that in with the blog (and I’ll tackle it a little more in-depth this time). I’ll keep rolling out some stuff with the PITCHf/x data, even if I don’t get a huge database downloaded. And we’ll have some playoff posts up (hopefully) and after that we’ll track everything the Padres do (or should do) in the offseason. If you stop by, please feel free to comment as much as you’d like. I created this place for that purpose. Thanks, as always, for stopping by.

Where to go from here?

September 24, 2007 in links, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

The Bradley incident is, of course, the big news in the Padres blogosphere today. You can read about it at Ducksnorts, Friarwatch, Gaslampball, San Diego Spotlight, and I’m sure many other places. Here’s Corey Brock’s report from padres.com. From the article, 1b coach Bobby Meacham:

“In 26 years of baseball, I couldn’t believe my ears the way that he spoke to Milton. [It] was so disrespectful, so angry, so vindictive. The boiling point is when he called Milton a name. Milton did not saying anything to him to get him to do that.”

Brock has a follow-up today with news that Bradley is gone for the year. Ken Rosenthal, just piling on at this point, reports that Mike Cameron may miss the rest of the season and possibly the playoffs, as well.

That’s two of the Padres’ three best players gone for the year (though, I guess Cam could come back). Anyway, I guess before going any futher, I’ll throw in my two sense on the Bradley fiasco. Here’s what I said on Friarwatch, before reading about the situation any further …

It seemed to me that Bradley wanted to keep it going and had opportunities to just end it and play ball. Now, if the ump said something ridiculous, I guess that’s another story. But there’s no way to tell at this point. I also agree that he probably won’t be back next year. I think the Padres are willing to take chances on player like him, but he’s gone a little overboard. I liked him coming in and I still do. Sometimes, though, enough is enough. He’s a fine (borderline great) player when on the field. The injuries and off (or on) field headaches are just too much. We’ll see if they bring him back, but like you, I think the chances are pretty slim at this point.

I’ll change my tune a little, considering that it looks like Winters was out of line. Still, with Bradley, it always does seem like something is going on and that things could blow up at any moment. I wish him the best of luck getting healthy and getting his career back on track, but I’d be surprised if it happens here.

Meanwhile, the Padres have gone from a borderline lock for the playoffs, to fighting for their lives down the stretch. BP’s playoff odds report now gives them a 44% chance of making the post-season. The Phils, according to BP, actually have a better chance at 48%. But at this point, you can pretty much throw those numbers out the window. It comes down to one week. Who’s going to play better for one week with their season on the line?

With a slim half game wild card lead, the Padres have 3 games left in San Fran and 4 in Milwaukee to close out the season.  The Phillies close with 3 at home against Atlanta and Washington. 

I had a lot of faith in Terrmel Sledge in the beginning of the year. Sledge, for the most part, has disappointed. He’s likely going to be called upon again here, along with Scott Hairston and Brady Clark, to deliver in a crucial stretch. I think (read: hope) that Sledge will turn it on and play a big part in the stretch run.

Chris Young will go tonight against Barry Zito as the final chapter in the 07 season begins. All hope has seemingly disappeared, but in one week anything can happen.

Gold, Bronze, Silver on Bonds

September 22, 2007 in links, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

Presented without comment : )

Catching up on all things PITCHf/x

September 20, 2007 in Jake Peavy, pitchf/x, San Diego Padres with 10 Comments

It’s been a little while since I’ve written about the PITCHf/x analysis going on, but it continues to fascinate me. There’s a ton of great stuff going on with it right now.

John Walsh wrote another great article for THT entitled “Pitch Identification Tutorial“. It’s a good overview on what you can do with this stuff. He takes a look at a bunch of pitchers, including Cla Meredith and Trevor Hoffman:

“Meredith is an exception to sidewinders throwing only two pitches — you can see his change-up thrown with the same movement has his fastball, but 10 mph slower.”

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“Hoffman’s celebrated change-up is the slowest (under 80 mph), although his fastball is also slower than the others. What really counts is the difference in speed between the fasty and the change. It would be interesting to go through the data and see who has the largest difference.”

At the bottom of the article make sure to check out the pdf file which has charts of about 150 pitchers. They are plotted in what has become the standard, with horizontal break on the x axis, vertical break on the y axis, and speed indicated by the color of the dots. Awesome stuff.

For some further discussion on this article check out Ballhype and The Book Blog.

Over at Fast Balls, Mike Fast has been doing a great job of both tracking the PITCHf/x articles and providing some amazing content of his own. About a week ago, he published “Mad Dox mishmash“, an article looking at Maddux’s repertoire. Mike’s been using pitch speed versus spin direction to classify pitches. He finds that Maddux uses a few curves and sliders, but predominantly goes with 2 seamers, cutters, and changeups. Check out the whole article (and the others …).

Also, another great blog I’ve discovered is Josh Kalk’s “from small ball to the long ball“. Using a clustering algorithm, he has made player cards, similar to what Walsh did. Along with this, he’s done a lot of work with correcting the PITCHf/x data. After all, the system is not going to be perfect from park to park and there’s even going to be some problems within each park (such as moving the cameras around, random errors, etc.). A lot of it is a bit over my head, but it’s great stuff that somebody needs to do.

Finally, k4arros, a poster on the espn Padres board, helped me figure out some basic things with excel. I don’t know what I was thinking before, but I couldn’t get the graphs down how I wanted them (horizontal v. vertical with speed indicated by color). Now, I think I’ve got it. Here’s Peavy again, with my same database (just from August 2nd with about 3 starts missing … 701 pitches). Horizontal break is on the x, vertical is on the y, and speed is indicated by color ….

jake-peavy4.GIF

Again, I think his pitches are relatively easy to identify. You’ve got the fastballs at 90+. Two groups of sliders from 80 to 90 (the yellow and green dots). You can see that the slower slider breaks more than the faster one. I believe this is Peavy’s slurve, actually. Then you got a few curves and changes in the 70′s. Peavy, for the most part, works with fastballs and sliders (slurves).

The next step for me is obviously to get some more data (and work with some different pitchers ; ). I’ve still got to figure out how to set up a database and pull lots of data from the mlb site. I know there are a couple of tutorials out there, but that stuff is like a different language to me … progress will probably be slow.

Of course, you don’t need me! The real analysts out there are providing unbelievable stuff. I think there are going to be some real breakthroughs soon (adding to the ones already achieved), as long as this data is still made available. Too many smart people are getting their hands on it and it’s really fun to sit back and watch.

Reviewing my prospect list, 10-1

September 17, 2007 in prospects, San Diego Padres with 5 Comments

 A final look at the ol’ prospect list.

10. Chad Huffman, left field, 22, San Antonio

Huffman started the year tearing up the Cal League. He hit .324/.402/.522 in 371 PA’s in Lake Elsinore. He took a step back in San Antonio, hitting .269/.360/.431 in 197 PA’s. The main problem with the move up to AA was strikeouts for Huffman. He k’ed in 15.1% of his PA’s in high A ball, but that shot up to 22.3% in AA. He continued to walk at a similar rate in AA, though.

Walk rate
A+: 11.3%
AA: 11.2%

ISO
A+: .215
AA: .162

The power also took a bit of a drop. Overall, though, it’s a pretty limited sample and it’s a pretty impressive campaign for Huffman.

9. Drew Miller, rhp, 21, Fort Wayne

A pretty promising year statistically for Miller. His ERA of 4.69 won’t blow you away, but his peripherals were quite a bit better than that. In 80.7 innings, he k’ed 87, walked 24, and gave up 12 long balls. Per First Inning, that’s a 4.22 FIP, which is certainly better than his ERA. Definitely a big step up considering his peripherals last year were pretty ugly in limited work. He’s one to watch.

8. Kyler Burke, right field, 19, Boise (Cubs)

Burke had a horrible start with Lake Elsinore (.573 OPS) and then was dealt to the Cubs in the Michael Barrett trade. I thought he had possibly slipped under the radar a bit because of the putrid early showing. However, it was only 243 PA’s and although his number were absolutely terrible (no power, huge k rate), there still had to be something here, right?

Well, he settled down with the Cubs low A affiliate and finished off the year nicely. He hit .254/.336/.446 while slicing into his k rate (30% down to 24.3%) and adding some much needed power (.047 ISO to .196 ISO). Of course, that’s after a step down to low A ball. Nonetheless, Burke is still just 19 and he may make the Padres regret the Barrett trade. Of course, nobody knew that Barrett was going to flop like he has.

7. Nick Hundley, c, 23, San Antonio

 Hundley spent the year in SA showing off some big time power. He blasted 20 homers and 23 doubles which is good for a .228 ISO (422 PA’s). Hundley’s been quite consistent checking in with ~ 10% walk rates, ~20% k rates, and ~.200 ISO’s all the way through. You know what you’re going to get. He and Morton could make a nice catching tandem in couple of years.

6. Aaron Breit, rhp, 21, Lake Elsinore

Yikes.

Breit’s peripheral aren’t that of a 6+ ERA pitcher. In 108.3 innings of work, he struck out 80, walked 47, and allowed 8 homers. He also had a high .362 average on balls in play, which should come back toward .300 a bit next year. Breit’s season looks worse on the surface than it probably was. He likely suffered from some bad luck and bad timing (stringing hits, high average against with RISP). For example, here’s his line with runners in scoring position:

35.3 innings, 60 hits, 3 homers, 21 walks, 32 k’s

He’ll have to bounce back next year (probably mostly mentally), but he’s still a good prospect, imo.

5. Yefri Carvajal, outfield, 18, Eugene

Performance wise, Carvajal was great in rookie ball and terrible in Eugene. Check out his drop off peripherally …

K rate
AZL: 19.1%
Eugene: 30.7%

BB rate
AZL: 9.6%
Eugene: 3.9%

ISO
AZL: .160
Rookie: .107

Carvajal is, of course, pretty much all projection at this point. It’ll be interesting to see what he does next year.

4. Cesar Carrillo, rhp, 23, Portland

Carrillo was struggling mightily in Portland when he was shut down with elbow problems early in the year. He missed the rest of the year and could miss time next season. He’ll have a long way to go to reestablish himself, but he could still make some noise down the road.

3. Matt Antonelli, 2b, 22, San Antonio

Antonelli had a break out year in 07. In A+ he crushed the ball hitting .312/.407/.494 in 406 PA’s. He barely lost a beat in AA hitting .294/.395/.476 in 223 PA’s. In fact, his numbers in both leagues were eerily similar:

Lake Elsinore: .182 ISO, 13.3% bb rate, 14.3 k rate, .342 BABiP
San Antonio: .182 ISO, 13.5 bb rate, 16.1 k rate, .333 BABiP

The slight drop in average (because of his slightly lower BABiP and slightly higher k rate) was really the only change in Antonelli’s performance upon the move from A+ ball to AA. When you put that kind of offensive profile at second base, you have yourself a fine prospect.

FWIW, Antonelli’s range factors were significantly worse than his teammates RF’s at each level. His defense may still be a bit of a question mark.

2. Chase Headley, 3b, 23, San Antonio

Headley, like Antonelli, had a breakout year in 2007. In 529 PA’s in AA San Antonio he simply dominated hitting .330/.437/.580. He got a mid season call to the big club where he struggled in limited playing time. It’ll be interesting to see what the Padres do with Headley next year. There are quite a few options, I think. He could just play out the year in AAA Portland. He could join the Padres and play 3rd or left. He, or Kouz, could be dealt in a trade. It’s amazing how you can go from nobody at 3rd to a bit of a log jam in a year. Anyhow, Antonelli and Headley are probably the top two prospects in the organization, at this point.

1. Cedric Hunter, cf, 19, Fort Wayne

He didn’t have the year you expected, but it was terrible either. The one question with Hunter will be whether or not he develops any power. Even in his great debut last year in rookie ball, his ISO was only .113. This year it dropped to .091. He probably isn’t the #1 guy at this point, but there’s still a lot to like here (age, position, contact bat). Defense and power may be what separates Hunter from another typical prospect to a legit center field candidate.

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