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Callis on Cates

Baseball America’s Jim Callis on the Padres third round selection Zack Cates:

No. 79 on our overall Top 200. Have to read your reports at baseballamerica.com so you can get info like this:

Undrafted out of an Arkansas high school in 2008 and bypassed again at Northeast Texas CC last year, Cates won’t be overlooked a third time. He spent most of his freshman season as a catcher, standing out for his strong arm and working just seven innings on the mound. A strong fall as a pitcher landed him on follow lists, and he has steadily risen up draft boards this spring. His fastball ranges from 90-93 mph to 95-97, and there should be more consistent velocity in his 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame. For an inexperienced pitcher, he has a relatively advanced changeup, which grades out as a better pitch than his curveball. His curve does have its moments, and he could have an easy plus fastball with two solid secondary pitches once he develops. His command and control still need work, but neither is a red flag. He’s a tough competitor. Cates hasn’t committed to a four-year school for 2010 and should be signable.

PNR Scouting rated Cates at 80 on their top 300 draft board.

Rico Noel, Padres fifth round pick

In the 5th round of the MLB draft, the San Diego Padres took Jablonski (Rico) Noel, a center fielder from Coastal Carolina.

Let’s get right to the numbers:

Year PA BA OBP SLG BB K ExBH SB-A
Fresh 191 .240 .330 .329 19 45 9 16-20
Soph 281 .315 .427 .500 34 53 26 48-51
Junior 287 .348 .464 .587 40 41 31 56-69

Adjusted Junior year stats: .353/.474/.594, .469 wOBA. Coastal Carolina plays in a neutral park and their strength of schedule was 100th in the nation, courtesy of Boyd’s World.

That’s an interesting statistical profile. He improved each year, increasing his average, walk rate, and power, while cutting down the strikeouts. Noel is described as a player who, offensively, puts the ball in play and uses all fields (and, once he gets on, steals bases). However, check out those K-rates. For his career, he struck out 139 times in 759 plate appearances (18%).

Jeff Sackman has done some research on college strike out rates and  when to “red-flag” somebody because they whiff too much in college. He concludes:

Thus, we can tweak the warning range again. Instead of 15 percent to 17.5 percent, we’re looking at college strikeout rates between about 18.5 percent and 22 percent. Anything over 22 percent foretells serious contact problems; anything above about 18 percent suggests that a player will have to be awfully good in the other 82 percent of plate appearances to make up for the strikeouts.

Noel for his career is at 18.3%, but he has lowered it in each year (24% – 19% – 15%), which is a good sign. However, it is definitely a concern, especially for someone who does not possess a ton of power and whose game is built around speed and getting on base.

Noel’s strikeout issues were further evident on the Cape last summer, when he struck out 35 times in 134 PAs (26%). He hit .233/.336/.302 overall. At 5-9, 170, Rico needs to continue working on making contact as he enters pro ball.

He definitely has some positives attributes, including his overall on-base ability and, mainly, his defensive ability and the pure speed he brings to the field. During his four year career at Coastal Carolina – and including his Cape Cod League performance — he has stolen 146 bases in 170 attempts (86%).

Here’s some video of Noel.

Chris Bisson, Padres fourth-rounder

In the fourth round of the draft, the San Diego Padres took a Junior from Kentucky, second basemen Chris Bisson (pronounced BEES-own).

Bisson is very much a contrast to Jedd Gyorko, who was taken two rounds earlier. Unlike  Gyroko, Bisson does not have great hitting prowess, however he brings excellent defense and great speed to the table. Let’s check the numbers:

Year PA BA OBP SLG BB K ExBH SB-A
Fresh 59 .157 .271 .216 8 11 3 3-6
Soph 245 .360 .414 .455 20 28 14 13-16
Junior 242 .329 .416 .467 28 33 18 32-39

Bisson gets a nice bump in his raw numbers, checking in on College Splits adjustments for his Junior year: .343/.433/.481, .407 wOBA. Bisson benefited from an extreme hitter’s park (132, from 2006-09), but also played a against tough competition in the SEC (Kentucky’s SOS was 23rd in the country this year) – both numbers from Boyd’s World.

With wood, Bisson hit .269/.385/.306 in the Cape Cod League last summer, but did steal 36 bases in 42 games.

Baseball Beginnings has a nice scouting report on Bisson, concluding:

SUMMARY: Chance to be best defender at his position. Speed plays. Needs to develop strength and prove he can consistently put ball in play. Won’t hit for power or be impact offensive player, but speed and defense will give him value.

There are serious questions about Bisson’s bat, but the fact that he provides good defense up the middle and brings plus speed to the field certainly won’t hurt his development.

Jedd Gyorko, Padres second round pick

In the second round at pick 59, the Padres selected West Virginia shortstop Jedd Gyorko.

Gyorko is rated as the 39th best draft prospect by Baseball America, 43rd by John Sickels, and 57th by Keith Law. Gyorko is a 5-10, 185 right-hand hitting shortstop. He has a stocky frame and will likely move to second or third base in professional ball. He has a very solid bat, however:

Year PA BA OBP SLG BB K ExBH
Fresh 253 .409 .450 .612 17 26 28
Soph 262 .421 .487 .658 32 25 37
Junior 280 .381 .472 .750 43 24 48

He got better every year at West Virginia, and as a freshman he had a 1.072 OPS. That’s pretty good. He improved his control of the strike zone each progressive year, and although his batting average dropped as a Junior, he increased his home run output from eight in each of the previous two year to 19 in his final year at West Virginia.

His park/schedule adjusted Junior season stats from College Splits: .373/.467/.737, .503 wOBA. He played in a slight pitcher’s park and West Virginia’s strength of schedule was 129th in the country, both according to Boyd’s World.

According to Paul DePodesta, he also hit .326/.388/.488 last summer in the Cape Cod League. Those numbers may not look that impressive, but consider college hitters are switching from metal to wood bats, and the league as a whole hit about .235. Gyorko’s .323 batting average and .488 slugging percentage were both third in the league.

Here’s a video of Gyorko hitting:

I am no swing-mechanics expert, but he looks pretty good at the point of contact:

Gyorko

And again:

Gyorko2

And while we’re at it, a home run vs. Maryland:

Gyorko3

Here’s Jedd in the infield:

From my non-expert perspective, I like this pick at 59. Unlike Padres first round pick Whitson, Gyorko is a pretty decent bet to progress quickly and, at some point, make an impact in the majors. At the same time, due mostly to his body type and fielding ability, his upside probably isn’t near that of Whitson’s. But at 59, he’s a nice pick.

Day 2 draft open thread

The San Diego Padres take Jedd Gyorko at 59, shortstop from West Virginia.

Rounds 2-30 will be completed today. Picks are live on MLB.com.