Not coming as a huge surprise with the recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso, the San Diego Padres have traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right-handed pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs for right hander Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.
While the Padres perhaps lost some leverage when acquiring Alonso, this appears to be a surprising small haul for a prospect of Rizzo’s potential. We’ll have more later on, giving the trade some time to digest. Feel free to discuss here.
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San Diego Padres manager Bud Black talks pitching with David Lauria of FanGraphs. FanGraphs also has a couple of pieces on Petco Park’s impact on offense (more specifically, how it might affect Carlos Quentin). Note that while Petco is a more friendly home run park for right-handed hitters, it suppresses total offense for righties and lefties about equally (it’s tougher on doubles — a more frequent event — for right-handed batters).
Dex loves the Quentin pick-up, and over at GLB he posted a poll asking how he’ll perform in 2012. Of the 300 some voters, 72 percent believe Quentin will play at least 120 games and 53 percent think he’ll homer 20 times or more. I wasn’t a big fan of the deal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Quentin gets 500 plate appearances and hits 20-25 homers.
Bill Center at The Union-Tribune (now with better URL) has an article on the Padres potentially extending Cameron Maybin and/or Carlos Quentin. Quentin will be 29 next year and, unless he has a breakout-type year, I can’t see the Padres extending the already slow, injury-prone slugger into his early thirties.
At Friarhood, Steve Adler posted an interview with recently jettisoned right hander Mat Latos. In the interview Latos does little to squelch the notion that he may have some maturity issues. He’s still only 24 years old and I doubt it had much to do with his trade to Cincinnati (Josh Byrnes has said as much). The Padres got a really good package for him. Still, “maturity issues” aren’t exactly a trait you’d look for in a potential multi-million dollar investment.
Don’t take this as sour grapes, though. Latos will have every chance to prove the naysayers wrong in Cincinnati. I wouldn’t be surprised if he remains a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter over the next few years with the Reds. Like I mentioned, this trade was largely a baseball one.
On the prospect front, Baseball America reports that Adys Portillo made strides in the Venezuelan League, including a five inning, one hit performance in November. Randy Smith on Portillo:
He has a “burning desire to be successful. Even after getting hit around, he bounces back the next day,” Smith said. “I think he gets it; he understands he is a work in progress and does not get too high on a good day or too low on a bad one.”
As a 19-year-old, Portillo struggled last season in his first real taste of Single-A ball. His strikeout rate actually improved (25 percent), which is encouraging, but he walked six per nine and posted a 7.11 ERA in 82 and a third innings.
Chicken Friars takes a look at the Padres middle infield and starting rotation heading into 2012. The middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett is not one to get too excited about. If anything, though, their combined production should improve in 2012, as they should regress back toward career norms.
The greatest Website in the history of the Internet, Cot’s Contracts, is moving to Baseball Prospectus. The look and feel will remain largely the same, there’s some extra tools to play around with, and it’ll remain free. Not much to complain about.
I’m still writing at The Hardball Times every other week. My latest piece is one the Boston Red Sox bullpen.
We can revel in the exceptional depth of the current San Diego Padres farm system all day long, but until players start graduating all we have are dreams of future success. There are a handful of prospects in the Padres system that need to take a step forward this coming season. Here are two in the upper minors that have an opportunity this year to force the Padres hand by 2013.
Casey Kelly
One of the centerpieces of the A-Gon deal, Kelly needs to show why he has been consistently rated as a top prospect. Thus far, his performance has been tepid in the eyes of many Padre fans. He enters what is essentially the equivalent to his third season of pitching in the minors. He was rushed to Double-A ball pretty quick as a 20 year old. He started out as a short stop for the Red Sox. He has yet to impress at the Double-A level. Scouts still believe in his potential.
Personally, I see him this year the way Cory Luebke was after the 2008 season. Although never as highly regarded, Luebke was expected to produce better than his early performance in the Padres system. Something clicked with him beginning with the 2009 season. I think Kelly may do the same. Another mediocre year from Kelly could take him out of the prospect landscape.
Jaff Decker
The Phoenix area native enters his fourth full season in the Padres system in 2012. He should start the season in Double-A, but could end up with Tucson by the end of the year. Decker’s OPS has fallen each season as he progresses. The good news is that his defense seems to be improving each year and his conditioning has been solid.
Decker’s minor league performance thus far reminds me of Will Venable’s major league performance, flashes of brilliance with an extreme swing of the pendulum the other way. In Decker’s case, some of it may be due to injuries. While the offensive regression should be cause for concern, he has managed to maintain exceptional plate discipline. Excellent plate discipline and a poor BABIP, in recent years, has me believing that Decker will rebound with a solid performance this year. Decker will be fine, IMO.
I look forward to seeing if Kelly and Decker take a big step forward in 2012.
Our own Ben Davey also writes for MadFriars about the San Diego Padres minor league system. Check out his recently posted interview with Matt Eddy, the Padres expert at Baseball America.
Lots of great discussion on BA’s methodology, Rizzo and Alonso, Drew Cumberland’s return, and the Padres system in general. Both articles are free, but consider subscribing to MadFriars for the rest of their top-shelf prospect coverage if you’re not already.
Editor’s note: Ben is back with his annual preview of the San Diego Padres minor league affiliates. We’re always glad to read more of his work.
Last year the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps had some dominant pitching, led by top prospect Keyvius Sampson. This year should be no different. The interesting thing about the Fort Wayne rotation is that it shows off the two different types of top drafted pitchers. Do you go for the polished college pitcher with a high floor and low ceiling (Andriese, Hebner, and Pope), or do you go after the high schooler with tremendous, but raw, ability (Portillo, Barbato, Ross, Kelly)?
The other question is who is going to fill the giant void left by Kevin Quackenbush? The ace closer will be pitching up I-15, leaving Fort Wayne searching for their closer de jour. Eugene had eight different pitchers close out at least one game, and a majority of the saves came over the last few weeks of the year showing that there was not an odds on favorite for closer in Fort Wayne. Conundrum or not the college arms taken in the 2011 draft should provide a solid bullpen for the Tin Caps, something the 2010 team was sorely missing.
Starting Rotation:
Matt Andriese: 3rd round draft pick from the 2011 draft, and the first college pitcher taken by the Padres. Andriese signed immediately and dominated from the beginning in Eugene. He went 5-1, with a 1.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and averaged over a K/IP. Andriese has good size and mechanics that should enable him to stay with the TinCaps. He doesn’t have tremendous stuff as his fastball tops out around 93-94, but he has good movement and a solid slider that he uses as his strikeout pitch. He needs to improve on his slider and change if he wants to succeed at the upper levels but he has a high floor which should lead him to dominate at Fort Wayne.
Cody Hebner: Hebner doesn’t have the size that most hope for, but he gets every bit out of his 5’11” frame and is a true student of the game. Hebner is the first in the video room and the last to leave. Hebner uses his FB as his bread and butter pitch. He doesn’t nibble but sometimes his pitches will move be too much and lead to walks. This led to the 15 walks in 37.2 IP. He has a good 12-6 curve, with late action, that can be close to 20 mph slower than his FB. At this point he doesn’t have a true change-up or slider, but both have already improved since joining the Padres. Hebner is another pitcher with a high floor. His ceiling is as a back of the rotation starter, but that shouldn’t stop him from excelling in Fort Wayne.
Adys Portillo: Not much needs to be said about Portillo. Tremendous stuff, but the results haven’t followed yet. Another year in Fort Wayne and hopefully this time yields better results for Portillo. He has received rave reviews during instructs, and as he continues to hit 98 on the gun, should finally be able to dominate.
John Barbato: Speaking of pitchers with high upside… Barbato has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the system not named Portillo or Sampson. Barbato has a plus fastball and slider, both of which have the ability to be absolutely filthy. Like most young pitchers his change is a work in progress, but as he develops it also has the change to really make him an ace pitcher. While everyone loves movement, Barbato suffered this past season from too much movement. He often struggled finding home plate with his fastball which led to 31 BB in just 57 IP. Ace potential but needs to locate his pitches better.
Joe Ross: 1st round selection by the Padres in the past draft. Ross was given a huge bonus to not attend UCLA so I would guess he jumps Eugene in favor or Fort Wayne. For being a pitcher a few months removed from high school, Ross has already displayed two plus MLB pitches in his fastball and curve. He can already hit 95 on the gun which should go up a few mph as he gains more muscle. Ross could find himself on the fast track to San Diego, but he needs to gain experience. Ross has a very high ceiling, but like most high school draftees also has a very low floor.
Mark Pope: Pope might end up in the pen as the #5 starter, but chances are he gets a chance to start at least to begin the year. Pope is not afraid and pounds the zone with his fastball (around 90). He has a solid slider and curve and is not afraid to throw any pitch in any count. Similar to Hebner and Andriese, Pope has a high floor with a low ceiling. He will probably wind up in the pen, but he is a veteran enough pitcher (and was given over slot money) that he should do well in Fort Wayne.
Other Candidates: Michael Kelly could crack the starting rotation, but after missing the entire 2010 season by not signing until the deadline, Kelly needs time working on his delivery. Kelly might have better “stuff” then Ross or Barbato but his delivery has been inconsistent and he needs to get his delivery ironed out before facing pro hitters. Other candidates include James Needy, Juan Herrera, Colin Rea, Chris Wilkes, and William Scott.
Bullpen:
With Quackenbush more than likely ending up in Lake Elsinore, there is not a clear cut favorite for who will be the closer in Fort Wayne. When Quack was promoted to Fort Wayne last year Eugene had seven different people record a save. No one really showed the dominance to become the everyday closer. With all that being said the favorite might be Rafael Arias if he can come back from surgery and show off his mid 90’s fastball. Other candidates include Chris Wilkes (5-1, 3.28 ERA, 35.2 IP, 46K/18 BB), Matt Stites (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 32.2 IP, 36 K/8 BB), or Greg Gonzalez (4-1, 3.99 ERA, 29.1 IP, 33 K/12 BB). James Jones was the closer in Peoria before a late season call up to Eugene.