by Padman

So today had to be my greatest day of baseball watching at Petco.  For one it was a half off day game so I got a great field level ticket for $20.  Then the fact that the Padres finally played the way we have all wanted them too (bunting, stealing bases, clutch hits) and getting to see Hells Bells for the first time this year (which is still one of the greatest moments in baseball).  AMAZING.

Now for the Lake Elsinore game.  The game itself was awesome, and as close as I was for the Padre game, everyone got ushered into the first few field sections around home plate.  For most of the game I sat right next to the home dugout entrance.  (Basically, I could hear the velcro rip as they took off their batting gloves).  As far as being in attendance, it was like being in a little league atmosphere, except I had to keep telling myself that this was Petco park and a lot of these guys will end up making millions of dollars (at least on the Padre side).  Anyway, I don’t remember what inning it was, possibly the fourth, but their was a popup down the 1st base line (right towards me) and the 1B looked to reach into the camera well (which was maybe 5 feet in front of me) and make the catch.  I scream “I got it, I got it!”  and the player takes his eye off the ball and it drops foul.  So, I’d like to think I saved an out.

Anyway, the Storm won 10-4, and basically cemented their spot in the playoffs (now three up with five to play).  So along with watching the game, I did some evaluations of players … here goes:
1) Cesar Carrillo- I can see why the Padres were (are) so high on him.  He’s basically is a four pitch pitcher, 4 seam, 2 seam, curve and change (it might be a splitfinger instead of 4 seam — I couldn’t tell – but it had more movement, slightly less speed than the normal fastball, but was still called a fastball).  His fastball ranges from 91-94 mph, which is back to the range he was in college.  Most of the time, he had great control with the pitch, being able to pinpoint the it right on the corner at the knees.  However, every once in a while the ball would sail two feet farther in one direction or the other.  As far as great control the same goes for his split/4seam/fastball (whatever you call it).  It has slightly more movement but basically stayed at 88 mph the entire game.  I don’t know if this is a new pitch for him, but he seemed almost surprised by the great movement he was getting on it, which meant it would sail outside (or inside) by a couple inches, which is enough to make it a ball.  Still the fastballs were excellent pitches, definitely MLB quality. 

Now for the change, which is probably his weakest pitch.  His changeup generally ranges from 79-81 mph.  It didn’t seem like he could quite duplicate his fastball arm delivery, which let certain hitters know it was coming.  (However, most of them still couldn’t do much with it because the Storm have fast players and Petco keeps a lot of balls in the park).  I think the one HR he allowed was on a change though.  It’s your basic change; pretty serviceable, but nothing special. But his curve  in conjunction with his fastball makes him an amazing pitcher.  Speed wise his curve ball ranged about 73-76 mph, and has tremendous movement (I spent the last inning right behind the plate and it looked like I was playing MLB 2K8 with the crazy movement).  You mix the nasty curveball with a 94 mph fastball (20 mph difference) and you have a 1st round pick.  Now, again his problem was that he couldn’t quite control the pitch.  (Like he would be surprised how far or how little it would break depending on how hard he threw it).  Definitely needs more work to rehab it (remember he has basically missed the past two years with Tommy John), so it looks like he’s finally regained his velocity and movement on his pitches, he just needs to get his control and arm angles back in toe and he will destroy the PCL next year till he is called up.

The Offense –  I’m pretty sure if anyone in the front office watched this game they would giggle and scream with enjoyment.  This team is basically everything that a club can want offensively.  Every hitter is patient at the plate, I think I only saw two swings on the 1st pitch (and that was basically because the Storm had a huge lead late in the game).  When/If they do strike out, its only after a 5-8 pitch AB.  Not to mention most of the team has great speed.  Hunter and Durango especially are like bolts of lightning, and even players like Canham, Rivera, and Joynt were showing speed.  Not to mention they seemingly all hit at least .300, and are all smoking the ball offensively.

2) Luis Durango- All I can say is that I was greatly impressed with this guy.  I think he went 3-4 with 3 RS in the game today, but his one out was a hard hit ball to the 2nd baseman (easy play) most players will either run it out or do the “jog” – either way they are out by a mile. Durango almost beat it out.  Literally the ball was hit and he was there.  Also he singled (I think in the 4th) and then Hunter hit a ball in cox alley.  The #9 hitter (Jodam Rivera) isn’t a slow guy, but even then it looked like Durango had to slow down rounding 3rd to not pass him.  Also on the HR ball, the ball landed in the 2nd row of seats, but somehow Luis jumped up a good 4-5 feet in the air to almost bring it back.  Durango was top 10 in BA in the Midwest League (at .305) and so far in 12 games in the Cal League he’s hitting a cool .426 (23-54).  He also boasts an overall OBP of over .400, and has 58 BB to 48 K in almost 400 AB this year.  The one knock on him is that I don’t see much power.  Only one HR so far this year, which I can honestly take since I am a huge Willits fan.   However, I would like to see a few more SB out of him.  Only 14 this year, and at the pace he gets on I’d expect almost twice that.  This guy has great speed both on the basepaths and in the OF.  Though I do wonder with that speed why he’s a LF?  I didn’t see him make a throw but I’m guessing that’s why, but don’t know for sure.

3) Kellen Kulbacki- I wish I could have seen Kulbacki on his hot streak.  I mean the guy had one of the best months (or 2 weeks) in minor league history, hitting a HR in almost every AB.  I don’t think Kellen has his swing back just yet, as he has missed the past 3 weeks with injury.  It also doesn’t help that he is being pitched like he is still on the blistering streak (ie they are giving him nothing to hit and hoping he will get himself out, which he did twice; he also walked, singled and had a Sac Fly).  He’s still not back 100%, but you can tell with each AB that he’s getting better.

4) Mitch Canham.  He went 0-4, but offensively he had a great game (yes I said it).  He got Petco’ed twice (yes, I also made up a word and I’m assuming you can guess what it means), once flying out to the wall down the left field line, then to right center by the 400 sign.  Both balls were absolutely crushed.  Defensively…he needs some work.  The odd thing is that the work he needs to do is not what normal catchers need help with (the ball in the dirt).  I saw quite a few balls in the dirt and Canham got in front of the ball extremely well and knocked it down.  The problem he has is, well, catching the ball.  I don’t think I’ve seen a game where the catcher had dropped so many pitches (aka they just bounced off his glove).  It’s almost as if he’s not used to that big of a mit and so a ball he would normally be able to squeeze with say an OF glove, bounces off his glove for a PB or just a dropped ball.  He had a PB today on a high Cesar Carillo fastball, and also had problems holding onto the curve.  I’m hoping this is something that can be worked out in the instructional league, because I think he excelled at blocking the plate and calls a great game (I would say his arm is MLB average, not as good as Hundley/Carlin, not as bad as Bard/Barrett). Not to mention his offense

5) Allan Dykstra- This kid looks like the hulk.  Kulbacki (whose not a small guy) had just grounded out, and as he’s running back to the dugout, Dykstra steps into the on deck circle.  For a few seconds they chat, and you can see that well it’s pretty much Rosie O’Donnell’ vs. Verne Troyer.  This guy is huge.  In his first AB he ripped a bases clearing 3 run 2B off the Petco porch.  Man he can hit, he also worked a HBP and was patient in the rest of his AB.  I didn’t see him defensively as he was the DH.  But this kid will go far.

Okay that’s it, a lot of writing, but a really fun game.  MB, you should fly out next year, so we can party it up and watch a Storm game.

by Padman

Just thought I’d give an update on a few top prospects and a few rising starts …

1) Wade LeBlanc: 10-7, 5.46 ERA
The record is nice, but the ERA is not what anyone would think of a top 10 (in many cases top 5) Padre prospect.  First, however, look at his BB/K/IP ratios.  113.2 IP, 39 BB, 117 K or a 9.26 K/9, 3 K/BB, and just over 3 BB/9.  Or going by his 22 starts, less than 2 BB/start.  Ok…that’s pretty good, since those numbers are non park/league dependent.  But that’s not the best (most interesting) part.  Here are his post All Star numbers:

3 starts, 3-0, 19 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 24 K, 0.47 ERA, .111 BAA, .474 WHIP. 

Now those numbers are just WOW.  1 ER in 3 starts.  Only 2 BB in 19 IP, and a 12:1 K/BB ratio.   He has a few more starts like this and it would be hard for the Padres not to call him up starting Sept 1.

2) Kellen Kulbacki (overall numbers in minors): .316/.408/.563/.971 18 2B, 22 HR

This guy is insane.  We talk about heating up as one month hitting .220, then the next hitting .300.  But how about this for monthly splits:

April (Fort Wayne) .164/.260/.295/.555 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 19 K
May (Storm): …….. .221/.361/.309/.670 3 2B, 1 HR, 14BB/14K
June: ………………. .329/.451/.695/1.146 3 2B, 9 HR, 17 BB/20 K
July: ……………….. .405/.458/.690/1.148 9 2B, 8 HR, 9 BB/13K
August (3 games): .667/.692/1.250/1.942 2B, 2 H  R 1BB/1K.

That’s what we consider improving.  He also leads the Cal league in BA (.349), OBP (.441), SLG (.622), and OPS (1.063). He’s 3rd in homers with 20. That’s pretty fantastic.
The one knock on him has been his defense.  From what I’ve read and heard he is like Brian Giles defensively.  He doesn’t have much foot speed that he can use to make up for a bad jump, but he gets good reads on a ball and has a pretty solid arm for a RF.  He will never win a gold glove but if he can hit anything near what he is hitting now….WOW.

3) Carroll, Tekotte, and Robertson:
Eugene has 3 players that have what Kulbacki lacks…speed.  All three can play CF, have speed, and have great arms.  Not to mention they can hit a little:
Robertson: 181 AB, 10 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR 26 RBI, 34 RS, 26 BB, 17 K, 15 SB, .370/.446/.481/.927. 

Of the three, Robertson probably has the least amount of power but the most amount of speed.  When he gets on base, he steals.  He also has a great K/BB ratio, and hitting at the top of the order is a huge catalyst for Eugene.

Sawyer Carroll: 159 AB, 13 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 36 RS, 27 BB, 43 K, 5 SB .308/.404/.541/.945 

Carroll has the best arm and plays a great RF. He leads the club in extra base hits, 2B, 3B, and is tied in HR.

Tekotte: 88 AB, 9 2b, 4 HR, 20 RS, 16 RBI, 10 BB, 21 K, 3 SB .307/.381/.518/.899

Blake was a late signee compared to the other two, but has made up for it, as he leads the club in 2B and HR per AB (because he has nearly 100 AB less than Carroll).  He also plays a great defensive CF.