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What to expect from Luke Gregerson

February 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, pitchf/x, player evaluation, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 5 Comments

We’ve noted many times over the years that relief pitchers are a fickle bunch. We only get 60 or 70 innings to evaluate each season, making the effort of predicting their future performance an at times futile one. Luke Gregerson was dominant in his first two seasons in San Diego, but despite a drop in ERA, he struggled in 2011. The numbers:

Year Inn. ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP
2009 75 3.24 11.2 3.7 .4 2.50
2010 78.3 3.22 10.2 2.1 .9 2.86
2011 55.7 2.75 5.5 3.1 .3 3.40

 

Gregerson struck out nearly 30 percent of batters in his first two seasons. Last year, his strikeout percentage fell to 14.1. That’s an alarming drop.

Using the new PITCHf/x tool created by Brooks Baseball and The Hardball Times, we can take a quick look inside the numbers. Gregerson relies heavily on the slider and below are some of his numbers for that pitch:

Year SL% MPH Call Str. Swings Whiffs/Swings
2009 51 84.1 15.8 55.3 46.7
2010 59 84.7 17.4 53.3 40.1
2011 54 85.5 13.6 52.3 33.5

 

Gregerson is still getting batters to swing at his slider, however, when they do swing they are much less likely to miss, as evidenced by the decline in Whiffs/Swings from 46.7 percent in 2009 to just 33.5 percent last season.

It’s also important to note that while Gregerson’s slider velocity has actually increased, his fastball and sinker velocity have decreased over the past three seasons, perhaps making his slider less deceptive and/or allowing batters to wait that much longer to recognize the slider.

Can Gregerson remain successful striking out only 14 percent of batters? It’s unlikely. While his home run rate was excellent in 2011, as he allowed just two home runs all year, that’s almost certainly going to increase in 2012. Only 3.8 percent of his fly balls traveled over the fence last year and that number tends to regress heavily toward the league average (~11 percent).

A sub-two strikeout-walk-ratio and a more normal HR/FB rate will likely lead to an ERA well into the threes. Out of the bullpen and in Petco Park, there just isn’t a lot of value there.

It’s impossible to tell if Gregerson will regain his swing-and-miss ways, but the over-reliance on the slider is worrisome. He missed a month in 2011 with a strained left oblique, and you have to be concerned that further injuries and/or decline in velocity could continue due to the high slider percentage.

Gregerson is a personal favorite and I’m certainly hoping he can regain his 2009-2010 form. Keep a close eye on his early season strikeout percentage and whiff rates for an indicator as to how his 2012 campaign might unfold.

New PITCHf/x tool

February 4, 2012 in links, Myron Logan, pitchf/x with Comments Off

Check out Brooks Baseball for a ridiculously awesome PITCHf/x tool released by Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and Lucas Apostoleris (among others, I’m sure). Now stop drooling. Here’s the introduction article.

Also, be sure to check out The Hardball Times newly unveiled Dispatch section, where THTers analyze the game using PITCHf/x data.

On the subject, I’m hoping to add more PITCHf/x analysis here at Friar Forecast.

Latos strong in 2011 debut; Padres fall to Reds

April 12, 2011 in game recaps, Mat Latos, Myron Logan, pitchf/x, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

Mat Latos made his first start of the season against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night, coming off the DL from a sore right shoulder.

Latos was solid in six innings of work, striking out seven, walking two, and allowing two (big) home runs.

Jonny Gomes took a hanging breaking ball and deposited it into the left field stands in the fourth, cutting the Padres lead to 2-1. In the following inning, Chris Heisey turned on a high fastball that landed in the same proximity as Gomes’ big fly, giving the Reds a 3-2 lead they would not relinquish.

Other than those two pitches, Latos was his usual dominant self (as was his counterpart, Edinson Volquez). His pitch location, at times anyway, was not quite in mid-season form, but coming off the DL and making his first start of the year, you can’t expect that. It’s called mid-season form for a reason.

According to PITCHf/x, his four-seam fastball velocity was 93.1 miles per hour, just one MPH off last year’s average (FanGraphs).

Latos v reds

The above graph shows Latos pitch types, classified by MLB Gameday, with horizontal and vertical movement.

The Padres had their best chance to tie game in the eighth inning, when Alberto Gonzalez lined a lead off double just inside the left field foul line. With the tying run on second, Chris Denorfia attempted to sacrifice Gonzalez over to third.

Denorfia placed his bunt in the one spot you don’t want it – right in front of home plate. Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez’s throw to third was low and to the wrong side of the bag, but Scott Rolen picked it and put down a quick tag, getting a generous out call from the third base umpire.

Gonzalez looked safe, quite clearly, though in real-time it was a bang-bang play. Still, Denorfia has to do a better job of getting the bunt down – anywhere else on the diamond probably gets the runner to third.

Instead of a man on third, one out (or first and third, no outs), the Padres were left with Denorfia on first with one down. Jorge Cantu had a very nice at-bat following that debacle, but ended up striking out (Denorfia was thrown out at second on the whiff, adding to the frustration).

The Padres had a chance in the ninth, as Orlando Hudson led off with a walk, but  nothing materialized. On the positive side, Latos did have a nice outing. I don’t think this team has a chance without a healthy and effective Latos, and it’s definitely good to have him back already.

Ernesto Frieri sharp in 2010 debut

July 18, 2010 in Myron Logan, pitchf/x, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

On Friday night, after the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks had long been decided, San Diego Padres pitcher Ernesto Frieri entered to pitch the top of the ninth. Frieri promptly retired all three Diamondbacks he faced – Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, and Mark Reynolds – in order, the last two by way of the strikeout. It was only his third career major league inning, first this season.

Here’s the PITCHf/x data on Frieri’s 2010 debut:

Frieri

Frieri threw just two off-speed pitches out of 14, both curveballs at 79 and 75.6 MPH, respectively. His fastball ranged from 92.9 to 95.2 MPH, averaging 94 MPH.

There isn’t a ton you can glean from an inning, but Frieri’s stuff looked nasty and his minor league track record is impressive. If Frieri can quickly develop into a reliable reliever, it could allow the Padres to trade someone from the pen or – if there’s any interest – Frieri himself for a starting pitcher or a bat.

More on Mujica

June 16, 2010 in Myron Logan, pitchf/x, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

My latest post on Edward Mujica examined what may be causing his extremely high home run rate. To be honest, I’m not sure we can really conclude much on the issue – at least not from my analysis. Anyway, Larry and Mike made some good points in the comments, and I wanted to further investigate Mujica’s pitch location.

Conveniently enough, just yesterday Jeremy Greenhouse looked at pitchers who are able to locate their pitches on the corners of the plate, but avoid the middle. A home run – or hard hit ball – is most likely to be located somewhere in the middle portion of the plate, and probably slightly up.

Here is Mujica’s pitch location graph for 2010 (view from catcher’s perspective, measured in feet):

mujica location 

Mujica’s pitch location does not look that much like Rivera’s. It seems his pitches are in the middle of zone as often as they are on the corners.

mujica vs righties

Mujica vs lefties

Against righties, Mujica is very reluctant to go inside. Though he keeps it away from righties in general, he appears to miss off the plate quite often. And he’s still putting it in the middle of the plate at a pretty high rate. Against lefties, again, a lot of pitches are located too close to the middle of the zone.

The graphs above are just from 2010. Let’s look at his entire career. This time I’ll use the graphs created from TexasLeaguers.com:

Muj

Click for a larger image 

On the left is Mujica in his career vs. all batters, the middle graph is vs. righties, and the furthest right is vs. lefties. And I am pretty sure that changeups are actually splitters, as I discussed in the previous post. Check out the comparison between Mujica and Rivera:

Muj vs Mo

You can see a pretty clear area where Rivera (on the right) doesn’t go – down the middle and up in the strike zone. He’s able to locate primarily on both sides of the plate, but avoid, largely, the dangerous section in the center. Mujica, on the other hand, does not appear to shy away from the middle and upper portions of the strike zone, and that’s a dangerous place to live.

Mujica has the stuff to be a quality reliever. Even with his home run problems, he has still been pretty solid. And this ‘analysis’ is not in any way conclusive. Home runs allowed involve a multitude of factors other than location – the hitter, the environment, pitch sequence, velocity, etc. That said, if Mujica is able to avoid the middle of the plate more often, I certainly think he may see a drop in home runs allowed.

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