We’ve already looked at the infield, the outfield, and the starting rotation.

Heath Bell

Heath Bell has taken over Trevor Hoffman’s closer role about as seamlessly as one could hope for. Acquired in late 2006 from the Mets (with Royce Ring, for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins), last year was arguably Bell’s finest season to date.

His strikeout rate rose to a career-high 11.1 per nine, while he surrendered just one home run in 70 innings of work. Bell’s career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just over three, which is terrific, but his greatest asset may be home runs allowed.

In his Padres career, Bell has allowed just 12 homers in 311.3 innings. Bell gets a grounder nearly 50% of the time and when he does allow a fly ball it only leaves the park eight percent of the time.

Bell wants to stay in San Diego long-term, and potentially at a discount. It’ll always be a bit dangerous locking up a mid-thirties reliever to a lengthy, high priced deal. But if the price is right, there’s no reason the Padres won’t extend Bell.

Heath Bell projection: 65 innings, 2.86 ERA

Luke Gregerson

I profiled Luke Gregerson last year at The Hardball Times using PITCHf/x data. The guy is flat-out nasty. Using a devastating slider over 50 percent of the time, Gregerson could probably step into the closer’s role at any time.

Gregerson’s put up a 3.23 ERA so far in San Diego. That’s fine, but  for a reliever in Petco Park it’s not anything astronomical. The encouraging thing, though, is that Gregerson has been much better than that.

He’s struckout nearly 11 per nine, walked just three, and allowed just 11 homers in 153.3 innings. Gregerson’s career FIP is 2.68, his career xFIP is 2.92, and his career tERA is 2.50. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Gregerson’s ERA fall this season even if his peripheral numbers stay the same (or drop slightly).

Luke Gregerson projection: 75 innings, 2.50 ERA

Mike Adams

While Luke Gregerson has been great, Mike Adams has been arguably just as good. In 169 innings for the Padres, Adams has K’ed 192 while walking 50 and giving up just 10 home runs. Adams has had a minuscule 1.81 ERA with the Padres.

You may be noticing a trend in the back-end of this bullpen – all these guys have great strikeout, walk, and home runs rates. Those are three pretty important aspects of pitching, and a big reason why the Pads bullpen has been so strong of late.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, unlike Gregerson, Adams’ ERA – and overall effectiveness – comes back to Earth a little in 2011. Still, there’s a lot of room for regression before becoming ordinary when you’re talking about a guy whose ERA hovers below two.

Mike Adams projection: 60 innings, 2.60 ERA

Ernesto Frieri

Ernesto Frieri turned heads last season with some electric stuff, striking out 41 batters in 31.7 innings. The Padres toyed with Frieri a bit in the minors, switching him between starter and reliever a few times. He wasn’t bad as a starter, but it looks like the pen may be where he ends up.

Frieri’s walk rate worries you a bit, though. He walked 3.6 per nine in his minor league career, including a 4.3 BB/9 last year in Portland. Combined with walk issues last year in the big league call-up – he walked 17 in 31.7 inn. – you could justifiably be a little concerned.

That said, Frieri shouldn’t carry too much weight on his shoulders in this pen, and he can continue to develop himself in the middle innings. If he can harness his control and continue to make bats miss, he’ll be able to step into a late innings role when needed.

Ernesto Frieri projection: 50 innings, 3.23 ERA

Joe Thatcher

Take away a horrendous 25.7 innings in 2008 (Thatcher had a 8.42 ERA that season, allowing 42 hits) and Joe Thatcher has been quite dominant for the Padres. In 35 innings of work last season, he put up a 6.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

While the left-handed Thatcher has been tough on lefties (.223/.282/.376), he’s been almost just as good against righties (.255/.330/.324). He’s much more likely to strike out a lefty, but interestingly righties have hit him for less power (small samples, beware).

Thatcher will be a go-to guy against tough left-handers, but it’s nice to know that if a righty comes up it doesn’t equal an automatic hook. Thatcher has had some shoulder issues this spring and could start the season on the DL.

Joe Thatcher projection: 40 innings, 2.90 ERA

Chad Qualls

Chad Qualls struggled mightily last year, splitting time between Arizona and Tampa Bay and posting a 7.32 ERA in 59 innings. Before last season, Qualls had been a highly effective reliever, with a K/BB ratio just over three and a 3.32 ERA.

While there must be concerns about Qualls future after such a horrible year, there are reasons for optimism. His peripherals really weren’t all that bad last season – 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9. A drop-off from his previous totals, yes, but certainly not worthy of an ERA above seven. In fact, Qualls’ FIP was a respectable 4.13 last season.

What hurt Qualls last season was a BABiP that rose to .386 (career, .303) and a left-on-base percentage of 53 percent (career, 72 percent). Some of that is probably attributable to Qualls declining performance, but a good portion is probably good ol’ randomness, and those numbers should come back toward average this season.

Chad Qualls projection: 50 innings, 3.50 ERA

The rest of the bullpen will likely be filled out by candidates who perform well, either at the major or minor league level. Pat Neshek, who we profiled recently, should get a good look in the pen. Dustin Moseley and Corey Luebke, who we discussed in the starting rotation preview, may also find themselves in the bullpen. Other candidates include Aaron Poreda and Evan Scribner.

Previously, the infield and the outfield.

Mat Latos

Mat Latos, the 23 year old right-hander, transformed from the The Future to The Present during the course of the 2010 season. The young righty threw 184.7 innings, logging at 2.92 ERA while striking out 189, walking 50, and giving up 16 homers.

A 2.92 ERA can come in many forms, especially when a guy spends a significant amount of time pitching in the friendly confines of Petco Park. Latos earned every bit of it, though, with very solid peripherals across the board. He struck a lot of batters, didn’t walk many, and didn’t allow many homers. That recipe will succeed just about anywhere.

Further, if there were any worries that Latos’ success was a product of Petco’s heavy air, consider that he threw 112 innings on the road and only 73 at home. His road ERA was a respectable 3.14, and his peripherals were actually better at visiting venues than at home.

There’s every reason to expect a “sophomore slump” in 2011 – simple regression to the mean, injuries, fatigue after a near 200 inning campaign. Then again, Latos is a special talent, and he’ll have every chance to come up big again for the Padres. They’ll definitely need him.

Mat Latos projection: 3.23 ERA, 185 innings

Clayton Richard

While Latos is a power pitcher, Clayton Richard relies more on finesse. Still, Richard is pretty adept at his craft – he knows what he’s doing out there. He struck out just under seven per nine last season and walked 3.5. He kept the ball in the park, too, allowing only 16 homers in 210.7 innings.

Richard’s 3.92 ERA is not nearly as shiny as Latos’, especially considering he spent more time at home than on the road. Still, he’s your prototypical lefty innings eater, and that has value in the middle of the rotation.

When you consider he’s provided almost as much value for the Padres as Jake Peavy has for the White Sox since the trade – Richard came over, along with three others, for Peavy in July of ‘09 – at a fraction of the cost, it makes things that much sweeter.

Clayton Richard projection: 3.50 ERA, 190 innings

Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang has two issues to overcome this season – injuries and performance. Those are two semi-big issues for a base ball pitcher. The big 6-7, 230 pound right-hander threw just 111.7 innings last year with the Reds, with an ERA north of five and a K/BB ratio just over two. And he’s always had issues with the long ball.

While that may not sound like a ringing endorsement for Harang’s future in San Diego, it isn’t all bad. For just $3.5 million on the free agent market, he’s worth the risk. This guy was pretty valuable from 2005 through 2009. If he stays healthy and recaptures some of his past glory, he could be a perfect fit in the middle of the rotation. He has a career ground ball rate of just 38 percent (career 1.22 HR/9), so Petco might be just what the doctor ordered.

Harang is much better as a fifth or sixth option, and in this rotation, he’s more than that. I mean, it’s good that he’s here and all, but the Padres are counting on Harang and he’s a wildcard at best.

Aaron Harang projection: 4.23 ERA, 131 innings

Wade LeBlanc

Wade LeBlanc is a left-hander very much in the mold of Clayton Richard. He’s posted similar strikeout and walk numbers to the Padres other lefty. However, LeBlanc has shown much less velocity, sitting around 86 miles per hour with the heater. Further, his groundball rate (36 percent) and home run issues (1.6/9) are particularly worrisome.

A pitcher can get by with guts and guile and all that good stuff, but sometimes you just need the ability to blow it by a hitter, and LeBlanc can’t rely on that. It’s much harder to keep hitters off balance when your fastball travels in the mid-eighties.

Still, Leblanc has shown what it takes to at least flirt with success at the big league level, and the Padres may need him to step it up and fortify the back-end of the rotation in 2011.

Wade LeBlanc projection: 4.15 ERA, 140 innings

Fifth/sixth slots

The back-end of the Padres rotation – and really, this could include anyone not named Latos – is largely up for grabs, and will likely come down to who performs better and/or who stays healthy.

The former first rounder, Tim Stauffer, is coming around nicely later in his career. Stauffer started just seven games last season, but overall in 82.7 innings he posted a 1.85 ERA while allowing just three long balls. As a starter in 2009, he wasn’t too bad either, notching a 3.58 ERA in 73 innings. Stauffer’s career groundball rate sits at 46 percent, aiding his solid home run numbers.

Dustin Moseley, the former Yankee and Angel, was picked up in the off-season as a free agent. Like Stauffer, Moseley has experience both out of the rotation and in the pen, and he could fit in either role. Then again, like Stauffer, he also doesn’t strike out many (5.1 K-rate career).

Further, he’s given up 32 homers in 233 innings (though Petco should help that). He could make the rotation, but I’m not sure that’s a scenario you want to draw up.

Lefty Corey Luebke has come into his own in the minors, recording sub-three ERAs in each of the last two seasons. He’s given up just 33 home runs in 430.7 minor league innings, while striking out 361 and walking 100.

He was pretty impressive in a cup of coffee last season for the big club, striking out 18 and walking six in 17.7 innings of work. He may get a chance to rack up some starts for the Padres in 2011, especially if injuries plague a thin Padres staff. Ben is also a big fan.

Previously, The infield.

Left field

The San Diego Padres acquired Ryan Ludwick at the trade deadline last season to help bolster their chances of reaching the playoffs. Ludwick responded by accumulating –1 WAR in 59 games played. Check out Ludwick’s performance last year with St. Louis and San Diego.

Team	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	ISO	K%	BB%
Cards	314	.281	.343	.484	.325	.203	22.8	7.6
Padres	239	.211	.301	.330	.257	.120	27.3	10

Well, his walk rate went up. Ludwick’s play certainly hurt the Padres down the stretch and was almost embarrassingly bad for an accomplished player. Whether it was Petco or switching teams mid-season or just a prolonged slump, Ludwick bombed in his first effort as Padre.

The good news is that Ludwick is still a pretty good hitter with an established track record, and evaluating someone based on a third of a season can make one look like a fool. While Ludwick probably isn’t the guy who slugged 37 homers in 2008 (he hit a near Pujols-esque .299/.375/.591), he probably is much closer to the player who has hit .272/.343/.487 since 2007 than the version that was on display with the Pads last year.

With Adrian Gonzalez in Boston, Ludwick inherits the the title of second highest paid Padre ($6.8 million, behind Heath Bell) and middle of the order offensive threat. If the Padres are to compete in the NL West, Ludwick will have to come to life and provide the much needed spark the Padres were looking for last year.

Ryan Ludwick projection: 540 PA, .255/.335/.430

Center field

In the off-season, Jed Hoyer made perhaps his shrewdest move to date, dealing relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica for center field enigma Cameron Maybin. We’ve discussed the Maybin deal at length here at Friar Forecast (elsewhere, too) and we’re big fans of the move.

Maybin, of course, is not without his warts. He has hit just .246/.313/.380 in about a season’s worth of Major League time. Last year with Florida in 322 plate appearances, he hit .234/.302/.361, striking out 92 times. His career strikeout rate is a staggering 32 percent, far too high for someone who has not yet displayed great power or patience.

Still, the key word is potential with Maybin, who has always been a favorite in the scouting world. He’ll be just 24 years old in April and under Padres control through 2015.

If Maybin can conquer his strikeout issues (not as easy task), he has a chance to develop into a star in center field. Even if he doesn’t develop as planned, Maybin should provide solid glove-work and enough offense to be a solid contributor for San Diego.

Cameron Maybin projection: 600 PAs, .255/.315/.390

Right field

Very quietly Will Venable has been a productive Padre, hitting .252/.325/.418 (106 OPS+) in his early San Diego career.

Venable doesn’t really do anything that stands out, though. He hits for a decent amount of power, has solid patience, and is a good base stealer. He’s also an excellent defender in right, rating above average in both UZR (+17 runs) and DRS (+15) for his career.

He strikes out a bunch (30 percent) and thus hits for a relatively low average, which doesn’t do a lot to promote his value amongst many in the media and baseball world. In the middle of his prime, Venable should be poised to put together another very nice year, though don’t expect to notice it.

Will Venable projection: 500 PAs, .255/.330/.430

Bench

Chris Denorfia is a nice backup outfielder, having spent significant time at all three positions. He’s played center field most frequently though he is probably better suited in a corner. Either way, he can handle any spot in a pinch.

He’s also a pretty good hitter, owner of a 104 career OPS+. Denorfia should see plenty of action spotting all three outfield positions in 2011.

Aaron Cunningham, who came over from Oakland last off-season, should also see his share of playing time this year. Cunningham debuted nicely with San Diego last year, hitting .288/.331/.417 in just 147 PAs, spending time in both corner spots.

Eric Patterson is also an option in the outfield, having spent time in left and center (bat not included).