Archive - prospects RSS Feed

Well Represented

March 28, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 1 Comment

As the top 100 lists are making their rounds, I can’t help but feel proud to be a Padres fan at this time. The Padres find themselves well represented. Padres prospects appearing on reputable top 100 lists include Yonder Alonso, Cory Spangenberg, Jed Gyorko, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Hedges, Keyvious Sampson, Robbie Erlin, Joseph Wieland, Casey Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Jaff Decker, and James Darnell. That makes 12 players appearing on top 100 lists.

The Padres have no shortage of highly regarded prospects. Still, there are several other Padres prospects that hope to make an appearance on next year’s top 100 lists’. Here are several that could make the lists next year:

Jace Peterson –Highest upside of any SS in the Padres system. Jace is fairly new to baseball but has the athleticism to shoot up the prospect boards if he stays focused and has the breakout year I expect.

Kevin Quackenbush – Relievers don’t often make it onto top prospect lists, but if Josh Spence could make a cameo last year, surely Quackenbush has a shot. I could see Quackenbush cracking top 100 lists if he replicates his 2011 performance in the upper minors.

Donovan Tate – Has enough talent to be an elite level prospect. The only thing holding Tate back from being considered a top 100 prospect are injury and character concerns. The word “only” seems a tad understated, but he has shown flashes. If Tate manages to stay healthy an entire season he could be next year’s Rymer Liriano.

Edinson Rincon – We all know Rincon has the offensive potential. If Rincon can find a position that he plays with adequate defense, he could easily be a top 100 prospect. At this point, though, he is essentially a younger Jesus Guzman.

Reymond Fuentes – I am not one of those that is disappointed in Fuentes’ progression. That said, he has not yet taken that next big step towards becoming the player the Red Sox and now Padres have envisioned. If Fuentes can improve his on base skills and show more power than Luis Durango, he could start getting talked about as a solid prospect.

Jonathan Galvez – Galvez is my personal favorite, along with Peterson, to have a huge 2012. With Spangenburg behind him and Belnome in front of him (on the minor league depth chart), Galvez will have plenty of motivation to stay focused and have a brilliant 2012. I could see Galvez hitting .300 with 15 HRs and 40 SBs at San Antonio next year. At 21, that kind of production from a 2B prospect could land him on several top 100 lists.

I am very excited for the upcoming baseball year on both the major league level and with the Padres minor league affiliates. Who will be the next group of Padre prospects to step up?

Previewing the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm: Pitching Staff

February 23, 2012 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

Now that the thrill of being the 2011 Cal League champs has settled, coaching moves have been made, and the cold winter months begin to fade into the unbearably hot summer weather, it is time to start talking about the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm.  The 2011 version of the Storm was one expected to be led by hard throwing right hander Matt Lollis.  Unfortunately, after 19 mostly unsuccessful starts he was moved to the pen and ended with an ERA north of five.  In fact of the seven starters who had multiple starts for the Storm, five of them ended with an ERA of over five.

The 2012 version should see considerable improvements such as Madfriars #1 prospect Keyvius Sampson.  In addition, the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm will benefit from increased depth at the upper levels, as a few pitchers that might normally be pushed to Double-A will be given another season in High-A to improve upon mechanics and hopefully put up better numbers.  So without further ado here goes the 2012 projected Storm rotation:

1)      Keyvius Sampson (12-3 2.90 ERA in Fort Wayne)
As great as it is for the Padres to say this… Sampson’s 12-3 record with a 2.90 ERA doesn’t show just how dominating he was for the TinCaps in 2011.  In fear of throwing too many innings, Sampson was limited to five innings in most of his second half starts.  With the 2010 injury in the past and 118 innings already under his belt, Sampson will be allowed to — finally — go deeper into games.  Sampson has been knocked on a few prospect sheets because scouts view his mechanics as “ugly,” and with an injury history, many wonder if he will be able to remain healthy enough to make it to the show and remain a starter.  Despite the criticism, Sampson was healthy all of 2011, and looks to show a few of the “experts” just how dominating he can be.  IF Sampson can stay healthy look for him to put up BIG numbers.

2)      Matt Jackson (5-1, 1.95 ERA in Fort Wayne)
Jackson was injured for a large part of the second half for the TinCaps, but that didn’t stop him from being named a MWL All Star.  Jackson doesn’t have anything ++ like Sampson, but he has four quality pitches each with good movement and good control.  The benefit for Jackson is that he is comfortable throwing any pitch at anytime in the count.  The biggest question for Jackson will be can he stay healthy, and if he does how many innings will the Elsinore staff let him throw (only threw 64.2 in 2011).

3)      Matt Branham (4-3, 4.98 ERA in Fort Wayne)
In 2010 Branham was in a Eugene rotation with top prospects Sampson, Portillo, and former high prospect Dexter Carter.  After the season was said and done, Branham was the pitcher of the year for Eugene going 6-3, 2.97 ERA.  Branham struggled a bit out of the gate in Fort Wayne and then got hurt.  He came back in August to Eugene where he got in 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.  Branham might have been out of luck, but the trade of Zach Cates opened up a spot for the big 6’5” right hander.  He might still start the season in the pen or in Elsinore, but if healthy I think he has the potential and skill to be a mid-rotation pitcher.

4)      Mark Hardy (11-10 2.78 ERA in Fort Wayne)
The Canadian lefty was the swing guy for the TinCaps last year.  If a start was needed he was the guy, if help in the pen was needed he could go one inning or five.  Hardy ended up throwing the most innings, and throwing the only complete game of the year  Like Jackson, Hardy doesn’t have any ++ pitches, but has multiple solid pitches and great control.  A control lefty with a solid repertoire can go along way in the minors.

5)      Andrew Werner (MWL/CL 7-8, 3.23 ERA combined)
This fifth spot could go to any number of players.  Werner probably isn’t the most likely to be here, but my guess is that he will end up here.  Even with Nick Schmidt, Pedro Hernandez, Zach Cates, and Simon Castro all traded, the Padres will still have a couple of pitchers staying in San Antonio, which means there is a good chance at least one of Sullivan, Watt, Lollis, De Paula, Werner, or Fetter will be staying in Elsinore.  Originally I thought it would go to Chris Fetter who has big potential with his frame and fastball, but was injured for most of 2011.  Unfortunately with Fetter already 26 years old, there is a good chance he either gets pushed to San Antonio (probably in the pen) or just released.  SO… staying in LE is Andrew Werner who put up a good season but similar to Watt, is mainly organizational depth more than anything else.

Bullpen

Closer: Kevin Quackenbush (2-1, 0.84 ERA, 18-20 SV, 42 IP, 71 K)
 This was easy.  Quackenbush exploded out of nowhere to seize the closer role in both Eugene and Fort Wayne.   The 23-year-old has  the big game, back-of-the-pen mentality that could get him to San Diego in 2013, possibly even September of this year.  BAA of .172, 71 K/12 BB.  It’s hard not to love him.

8th inning: Adam Dominick (5-6, 3.59 ERA, 10 SV, 72 IP, 13 BB, 83 K)
Dominick had some problems early and eventually lost the closer’s role to Quackenbush.  Dominick has the raw stuff to be solid in the back of the pen, but struggled with allowing runners on base in close games.  Call it a lack of a closer’s mentality, but before Quack came to Fort Wayne it seemed like every save opportunity the collar got tighter and tighter.  After Quack took over as closer, though, Dominick settled down into his eighth inning role.  Dominick allowed runs in only one of his final nine appearance (12 IP, 17 K).

7th inning: Chris Franklin (2-2, 2.97 ERA 7 SV, 15 H in Fort Wayne)
Franklin might not have started the year as the back of the pen guy, but his post ASB numbers of 2-1, 2.33 ERA with a 2:1 GB/FB were solid.  Franklin did have some trouble early on with the home run ball, but didn’t allow a home run the entire second half of the year.  In the hot Cal League air Franklin could get in trouble if he leaves the ball up, but if the second half of the year was any indication of what’s to come he will make the game a six inning affair for the Storm.

Next up: the 2012 Texas League Champs San Antonio Missions, who should see quite a few returning faces and the additions of a few key players all ready to make the Missions go back-to-back.

Ten names to know: 2012 MLB Draft Prospects

February 22, 2012 in draft, prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 8 Comments

Baseball is in the air. Players are beginning to report to spring training. The Padres appear to be nearly set with only a couple 25 man spots up for grabs. Although the 2012 draft is not until June, the Padres surely have scouts getting ready for the high school and college baseball season about to begin. With the seventhoverall pick in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, the Padres will be keeping an eye on a handful of players. Here I will introduce you to 10 names that the Padres scouts will likely be following over the next few months. All are potential top half of the first round picks. I have selected with the Padres organizational needs in mind to a large degree.

Not likely to be available:

1) Devin Marrero (SS) – The Padres would be ecstatic to find Marerro at number seven. It is very unlikely that he falls to the Padres, but the Padres would be foolish to not scout him anyway. Marrero is one of the better college shortstops to come out in years. He does not possess Manny Machado upside, IMO. However, he does have a high floor and may move fast. Marrero is a good bet to be an average to slightly above average major league shortstop within two years of drafting. The Padres should be salivating.

2) Lucas Giolito (RHP) – My personal favorite of the 2012 draft. Giolito has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the 2012 draft. He routinely hits the mid- to-upper 90’s with the radar gun and has a projectable frame. At 6’6” and 200lbs, he is a potential ace. Giolito could go #1 overall and most likely will not be available when the Padres draft.

3) Mark Appel (RHP) – Many believe Appel will be the first player selected. With this being a shallow college player draft, Appel stands out amongst the rest. Appel is 6’5” 190 lb projectable workhorse. Appel, IMO, does not project to be an ace. Although, some will argue that he has the upside of an ace. I think Appel will be viewed by most scouts as #2 that eats up solid innings. Appel represents the best floor/ceiling combination of any pitcher in the 2012 draft. There are enough teams in need of advanced pitching ahead of the Padres that Appel is highly unlikely to be available to the Padres.

4) Mike Zunino (C) – The Padres may no longer have an organizational need at catcher. However, catching is such a valuable commodity that should Zunino be available at number seven, the Padres would consider drafting him as the best player available. Make no mistake, the Padres would not draft Zunino ahead of Giolito, Marrero, or Appel. Zunino projects to be major league ready fairly quickly. Most of the scouting reports I have read suggest Zunino’s floor is an above average backup catcher with his ceiling as an above average major league starting catcher. He is a solid bet to play regularly at the catching position in the Majors, which makes him valuable.

Players that might be available to the Padres:

5) Kevin Gausman (RHP) – Gausman is a power pitcher for LSU. Gausman has more upside, IMO, than Appel. However, Gausman has a high bust factor as he has not shown the same consistency as Appel. If Gausman pitches exceptionally this spring, he may be picked ahead of the Padres at #7. Gausman has the potential to be a top of the rotation elite starter if he puts everything together. The Padres, lacking in elite prospect talent, should be scouting Gausman heavily this spring.

6) Carlos Correa (SS) – With Marrero likely gone by the #6 overall pick, the Padres could draft Correa. Correa will be a project for whoever drafts him. He is not a sure bet for staying at SS, but has the athleticism that will entice teams to try him there early in his pro career. The Padres should be scouting Correa quite a bit since SS is very weak. Personally, I would pass on Correa should a very good pitching prospect like Gausman be available. Correa, IMO, does not represent a significant upside improvement over Jace Peterson and would be slightly behind Peterson in development.

7) Byron Buxton (OF) – Many believe Buxton to be the best overall high school position talent available in terms of ceiling. I have heard comparisons to Donovan Tate. Buxton, for the Padres, would represent drafting an elite upside talent. Buxton has the potential to be a five-tool outfielder. Given the only elite upside outfielder in the Padres system is Tate, the Padres would likely consider taking Buxton should he be available.

8 ) Max Fried (LHP) – High school lefties with fastballs sitting in the low 90’s and occasionally reaching 95 are sure to get the attention of scouts. At 6’3” and 170 lbs, Fried has the frame to go along with his pitching repertoire. Fried is a personal favorite of mine and would love to see the Padres draft him if he is the best available left at #7.

Likely to be available:

9) Chris Beck (RHP) – Beck is one of the safer college pitching picks. At 6’3” 190lbs, he certainly has the projectable frame. Beck should be available to the Padres should they decide to go with a safe pick with minimal sign-ability risk. Beck projects as a middle of the rotation starter with #2 upside if his secondary pitches continue to improve.

10) Lance McCullers (RHP) — McCullers is in a similar boat as Gausman. Both need a big spring to solidify their status as a top 10 draft pick. McCullers routinely hits the upper 90’s with the radar gun. However, McCullers is even more raw than Giolito and doesn’t have the same frame. At 6’2’ 195 lbs, McCullers still has some frame projectability but coupled with his raw potential makes McCullers a project. McCullers could be a top 5 pick if he shows improvement in command and secondary pitches this spring.

Additional names that the Padres would likely be scouting: Trey Williams, Victor Roache, Walker Weichel, Mike Wacha, Jake Barrett, Nick Williams, and Lucas Sims.

Overall, there should be plenty of players for the Padres to choose from in the 2012 draft. If I were putting together a “big” board for the Padres and the draft were held tomorrow, here is how I would have it:

1) Marrero
2) Giolito
3) Appel
4) Gausman
5) Fried
6) Buxton
7) Zunino

Gausman, Fried, and Buxton are the most likely to be available and all would represent high upside picks for the Padres.

Minor thoughts: Runs per game, by league

February 1, 2012 in Myron Logan, prospects, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 7 Comments

Over the past few months, we’ve talked a lot about San Diego Padres prospects. In fact, we’ve always spent a lot of time covering prospects here at Friar Forecast. There’s arguably no better time than right now, though, as the Padres have a consensus top five farm system and one of the deepest in baseball.

Scouting is obviously important in the minor leagues, especially at the lower levels. No matter how sophisticated we get, in terms of advanced stats and technology, scouting young baseball players isn’t going anywhere.

With that in mind, baseball is still a game of numbers, and at some point we need to evaluate prospects in terms of performance. One of the difficulties working with minor league numbers is that they are attained in a variety of different environments. You’ve got hitter’s parks in hitter’s leagues, pitcher’s parks in pitcher’s leagues, and everywhere in between.

With that in mind, I thought we would first take a look at each minor league’s run scoring environment, from Low-A through Triple-A.

MILBScoring
data from Baseball-Reference

The above chart shows runs per game in each league since 2009, with a three year average in the far right column. The bold-faced leagues are ones that house Padres affiliates.

First off, you might notice an interesting trend across the minor leagues in general. Run scoring is going up. The total average for all leagues was 4.54 run per game in 2009. It’s jumped up to 4.7 in 2011.

The Padres play in three leagues that are relatively normal, based on the three year averages: the Double-A Texas League, the Single-A Midwest League, and the Low-A Northwest League. The other two, the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and the High-A California League, are the two highest minor league run scoring environments (at least from Low-A up).

The Padres actually have affiliates in the four highest run scoring leagues, as the Northwest League and Texas League are next in line after the PCL and Cal League. It’s a bit concerning that Padres prospects will be accustomed to high-scoring environments in the minor leagues and then have to adjust to the major league’s worst hitter’s park upon reaching the show.

While leagues impact scoring throughout the minors, parks impact scoring within each league. At some point, we’ll take a look at how each Padres affiliate is effected by its home park.

Anyway, this chart should provide a quick reference when you compare a player’s stats across leagues or even years.

Previewing the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm: Offense

January 31, 2012 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

Last year the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm won the Cal League Championship, so they will look to build on that momentum in 2012.  Of course they will do so with nearly a completely different roster, but that is just some of the fun of following minor league baseball.

The Storm will have at least two first round picks in their lineup, which should boost the offense.  The Storm’s offense was hurt last year after promotions of Jedd Gyorko and Jason Hagerty, and an injury to Edinson Rincon.  The weakness of the offense, though, was the lack of hitting from the outfielders.  Fuentes (.711 OPS), Meeley (.707 OPS), Olabisi (.658 OPS), and Payne (.245 BA, .819 OPS) all struggled in the very hitter-friendly Cal League.  This year should be different with Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano, first round pick Donavan Tate, and Rico Noel all patrolling the outfield.  So without further ado, here we go…

1)      Rico Noel CF/DH .253/.345/.347 50 SB, 4 CS
Noel struggled to find consistency with the bat last year.  However, Noel provides speed at the top of the order on a team that will challenge for the lead in SB.  Between Fort Wayne and Elsinore last year, Noel stole a combined 62 bases with only 5 CS.  Unfortunately in a deep lineup, with plenty of outfield, Noel will have to hit closer to .300 if he wants to remain hitting at the top of the order.  No matter how bad his offense is, Noel’s defense in center field will allow him to get ample playing time.

2)      Cory Spangenberg 2B .316/.419/.418 25 SB, 8 CS
Spangenberg was mister everything in Eugene, reaching base safely in all 25 of his games.  More impressive was that Cory had nearly a 2:1 BB:K ratio — that’s right nearly 2x as many BB as K.  The tides changed in Fort Wayne as he struggled the first month to make solid contact.  He rebounded nicely hitting .360 over his last 30 G.  Cory has the tools to demolish Cal League pitching.  While we might see his power numbers increase slightly, they will still not be nearly that of a Chase Utley.  Still, look for Spangy to hit around .330 with 25 SB at the break and be promoted to Double-A San Antonio shortly there after.

3)      Rymer Liriano RF .319/.383/.499, 12 HR, 65 SB
We all know about Liriano by now, so I figured I would point out an interesting nugget of info on him.  Looking at Liriano’s triple slash line, and knowing he hit third in the TinCap’s lineup you would assume he would have more than 62 RBI in 116 G for the TinCaps.  Nope.  Liriano last year found himself more as a table setter than anything else.

Everyone is excited about Liriano’s five tool ability, and believe me I have been on the Liriano band wagon since I saw him in the AZL a few years ago, BUT despite his impressive line, and his Midwest MVP award, I will hold off on anointing him the Padres number one prospect.  The reason for that is Liriano (who is now 20) is still young and has a long way to go before we see him in San Diego.  Two years ago we were all hailing Simon Castro as the next great Padres pitcher throwing him into the same sentence as Peavy, and yet when Castro was recently traded this offseason no one made much of a fuss (ed. note: Myron did!).  I am a huge Liriano supporter but as many of us know there is about as good of a chance that Liriano will never make it past Double-AA as there is he becomes an everyday MLB player.  I sure hope he lives up to his potential and becomes the next Vlad, but I am cautious.

4)      Connor Powers 1B 338/.422/.538
While Liriano rightfully won the Midwest League MVP, it was a tough decision to even name Liriano the team MVP because of what Connor Powers did for the club.  Powers gave Liriano someone to protect him in the lineup, and was able to “clean up” the bases every time Liriano got on.  Despite playing in 40 fewer games than Liriano, Powers ended up only one double behind him (30 vs. 29).  Powers doesn’t have the raw power that Storm fans are used to seeing from their previous first basemen (Freiman and Decker), but Powers has the ability to hit for a higher average, and has enough power that he could still belt 20 home runs in the Cal League.

5)      Donavan Tate CF/LF/DH .288/.410/.411 39 G, 29 BB, 35 K, 19 SB
Tate could eventually be the leadoff hitter, but without another “power” type bat to hit behind Powers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tate start the year off hitting fifth.  We all know about Tate’s abilities and we all know about his shortcomings.  If he can ever get his head on straight he can battle with Liriano for Cal League MVP.  Of course that is a big IF.

6)      Jake Blackwood 3B .269/.319/.456 17 HR, 36 2B
***OR Everett Williams LF/DH*** Blackwood was a Midwest League all-star before his promotion to Lake Elsinore (when Gyorko was promoted to Double-A) and he didn’t light the world on fire in Elsinore.  Still, Blackwood will either be around in Elsinore or San Antonio depending on what the Padres do with Gyorko.  Rincon will not be the everyday third basemen in San Antonio, as his defense still hasn’t improved, and Blackwood could provide that other bat in SA.  If that happens look for Bisson to be the everyday 3B.  Williams will split time in the outfield and DH.  Williams has a lot of potential, but had an attitude problem early in his career (too good to practice).  Well not much in stats and a big injury later and we will see if Williams has matured.  Williams still has excellent speed, but has not developed the pop everyone thought he would.  The potential might still be there but he is far away from reaching it.

7)      Rocky Gale/Emanuel Quiles C .267/.310/.333 (Gale), .211/.241/.279 (Quiles)
Quiles got the bulk of the starts last year behind the plate as he is a plus defender (at least compared to the other catchers the TinCaps had last year).  However, as you can see, he couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag.  In 300 at bats, Quiles had 13 xbh, 11 BB, and 64 K.  Gale provides more in terms of offense and got the bulk of the starts down the stretch.  Gale is a singles hitter, who is mainly just organizational depth.  As much as the Padres don’t want to rush Hedges, if he is hitting at all in Fort Wayne, look for a midseason promotion.

8)      Chris Bisson 3B/DH/2B  .261/.345/.321
Bisson, as well as teammates Noel and Guinn, were taken fairly highly in Jed Hoyer’s first draft.  Most importantly, all three of them were billed as “Petco park type players.”  Well so far, they may be Petco park players but they were not Midwest League players.  Bisson improved over the second half of the year hitting .274/.358/.341, but for a light hitting 2B it wasn’t enough.  Bisson should improve a bit in Elsinore, but unless he starts hitting over .300 with 30 SB he will get passed up and/or released.

9)      BJ Guinn SS .245/.307/.307 34 SB, 104 K
Speaking of light hitting middle infielders.  Guinn was supposed to lead the team with a .300 BA, 50 SB, and 100 RS.  Well, he had 18 extra base hits all year, a .551 OPS through the first half of the year and committed 29 errors at short.  We knew Guinn wouldn’t hit for much power, but the low BA, high K, and low OBP numbers are concerning.  Guinn was one of the big reasons the TinCaps struggled so much in the first half last year.  He will be kept around as the Padres need shortstop’s, but this might be his last chance, especially if Peterson hits well in Fort Wayne.

Look out for… Tommy Medica.  Medica hit fairly well in Fort Wayne before getting injured.  When he came back the Padres didn’t want to risk him getting re-injured and out for the remainder of the year so they kept him at DH/1B.  He hit .302/.440/.504 in Lake Elsinore.  If Medica is going to make the majors it will be as a catcher (where he has enough hitting ability to be a top 20 prospect on most teams).  However with Grandal in Tucson, Hagerty will stay in San Antonio which means if Medica is going to catch everyday like the organization wants it will be in Elsinore.  Also don’t forget that San Antonio only has DH half the time, and they also have big Nate Freiman at 1B.  While I originally had Medica in San Antonio, and he still might end up there, do not be surprised if he is the everyday catcher in Lake Elsinore (especially since there is not much else there).

Final Thought: This has the potential to be every bit as lethal of a lineup as the Storm have had over the past two years.  The team has some serious speed in Noel, Tate, Spangenberg, Liriano, Guinn, and Bisson.  They also have plenty of hitters that should hit at or close to .300.  Look for the team to challenge the league leaders in runs per game.  With the aforementioned hitters they have the ability to go all the way in the Cal League, especially considering they will have a rotation anchored by Madfriars numbers prospect Keyvius Sampson.

Page 1 of 3112345»102030...Last »