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Ten names to know: 2012 MLB Draft Prospects

February 22, 2012 in draft, prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 0 Comments

Baseball is in the air. Players are beginning to report to spring training. The Padres appear to be nearly set with only a couple 25 man spots up for grabs. Although the 2012 draft is not until June, the Padres surely have scouts getting ready for the high school and college baseball season about to begin. With the seventhoverall pick in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, the Padres will be keeping an eye on a handful of players. Here I will introduce you to 10 names that the Padres scouts will likely be following over the next few months. All are potential top half of the first round picks. I have selected with the Padres organizational needs in mind to a large degree.

Not likely to be available:

1) Devin Marrero (SS) – The Padres would be ecstatic to find Marerro at number seven. It is very unlikely that he falls to the Padres, but the Padres would be foolish to not scout him anyway. Marrero is one of the better college shortstops to come out in years. He does not possess Manny Machado upside, IMO. However, he does have a high floor and may move fast. Marrero is a good bet to be an average to slightly above average major league shortstop within two years of drafting. The Padres should be salivating.

2) Lucas Giolito (RHP) – My personal favorite of the 2012 draft. Giolito has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the 2012 draft. He routinely hits the mid- to-upper 90’s with the radar gun and has a projectable frame. At 6’6” and 200lbs, he is a potential ace. Giolito could go #1 overall and most likely will not be available when the Padres draft.

3) Mark Appel (RHP) – Many believe Appel will be the first player selected. With this being a shallow college player draft, Appel stands out amongst the rest. Appel is 6’5” 190 lb projectable workhorse. Appel, IMO, does not project to be an ace. Although, some will argue that he has the upside of an ace. I think Appel will be viewed by most scouts as #2 that eats up solid innings. Appel represents the best floor/ceiling combination of any pitcher in the 2012 draft. There are enough teams in need of advanced pitching ahead of the Padres that Appel is highly unlikely to be available to the Padres.

4) Mike Zunino (C) – The Padres may no longer have an organizational need at catcher. However, catching is such a valuable commodity that should Zunino be available at number seven, the Padres would consider drafting him as the best player available. Make no mistake, the Padres would not draft Zunino ahead of Giolito, Marrero, or Appel. Zunino projects to be major league ready fairly quickly. Most of the scouting reports I have read suggest Zunino’s floor is an above average backup catcher with his ceiling as an above average major league starting catcher. He is a solid bet to play regularly at the catching position in the Majors, which makes him valuable.

Players that might be available to the Padres:

5) Kevin Gausman (RHP) – Gausman is a power pitcher for LSU. Gausman has more upside, IMO, than Appel. However, Gausman has a high bust factor as he has not shown the same consistency as Appel. If Gausman pitches exceptionally this spring, he may be picked ahead of the Padres at #7. Gausman has the potential to be a top of the rotation elite starter if he puts everything together. The Padres, lacking in elite prospect talent, should be scouting Gausman heavily this spring.

6) Carlos Correa (SS) – With Marrero likely gone by the #6 overall pick, the Padres could draft Correa. Correa will be a project for whoever drafts him. He is not a sure bet for staying at SS, but has the athleticism that will entice teams to try him there early in his pro career. The Padres should be scouting Correa quite a bit since SS is very weak. Personally, I would pass on Correa should a very good pitching prospect like Gausman be available. Correa, IMO, does not represent a significant upside improvement over Jace Peterson and would be slightly behind Peterson in development.

7) Byron Buxton (OF) – Many believe Buxton to be the best overall high school position talent available in terms of ceiling. I have heard comparisons to Donovan Tate. Buxton, for the Padres, would represent drafting an elite upside talent. Buxton has the potential to be a five-tool outfielder. Given the only elite upside outfielder in the Padres system is Tate, the Padres would likely consider taking Buxton should he be available.

8 ) Max Fried (LHP) – High school lefties with fastballs sitting in the low 90’s and occasionally reaching 95 are sure to get the attention of scouts. At 6’3” and 170 lbs, Fried has the frame to go along with his pitching repertoire. Fried is a personal favorite of mine and would love to see the Padres draft him if he is the best available left at #7.

Likely to be available:

9) Chris Beck (RHP) – Beck is one of the safer college pitching picks. At 6’3” 190lbs, he certainly has the projectable frame. Beck should be available to the Padres should they decide to go with a safe pick with minimal sign-ability risk. Beck projects as a middle of the rotation starter with #2 upside if his secondary pitches continue to improve.

10) Lance McCullers (RHP) — McCullers is in a similar boat as Gausman. Both need a big spring to solidify their status as a top 10 draft pick. McCullers routinely hits the upper 90’s with the radar gun. However, McCullers is even more raw than Giolito and doesn’t have the same frame. At 6’2’ 195 lbs, McCullers still has some frame projectability but coupled with his raw potential makes McCullers a project. McCullers could be a top 5 pick if he shows improvement in command and secondary pitches this spring.

Additional names that the Padres would likely be scouting: Trey Williams, Victor Roache, Walker Weichel, Mike Wacha, Jake Barrett, Nick Williams, and Lucas Sims.

Overall, there should be plenty of players for the Padres to choose from in the 2012 draft. If I were putting together a “big” board for the Padres and the draft were held tomorrow, here is how I would have it:

1) Marrero
2) Giolito
3) Appel
4) Gausman
5) Fried
6) Buxton
7) Zunino

Gausman, Fried, and Buxton are the most likely to be available and all would represent high upside picks for the Padres.

Minor thoughts: Runs per game, by league

February 1, 2012 in Myron Logan, prospects, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 7 Comments

Over the past few months, we’ve talked a lot about San Diego Padres prospects. In fact, we’ve always spent a lot of time covering prospects here at Friar Forecast. There’s arguably no better time than right now, though, as the Padres have a consensus top five farm system and one of the deepest in baseball.

Scouting is obviously important in the minor leagues, especially at the lower levels. No matter how sophisticated we get, in terms of advanced stats and technology, scouting young baseball players isn’t going anywhere.

With that in mind, baseball is still a game of numbers, and at some point we need to evaluate prospects in terms of performance. One of the difficulties working with minor league numbers is that they are attained in a variety of different environments. You’ve got hitter’s parks in hitter’s leagues, pitcher’s parks in pitcher’s leagues, and everywhere in between.

With that in mind, I thought we would first take a look at each minor league’s run scoring environment, from Low-A through Triple-A.

MILBScoring
data from Baseball-Reference

The above chart shows runs per game in each league since 2009, with a three year average in the far right column. The bold-faced leagues are ones that house Padres affiliates.

First off, you might notice an interesting trend across the minor leagues in general. Run scoring is going up. The total average for all leagues was 4.54 run per game in 2009. It’s jumped up to 4.7 in 2011.

The Padres play in three leagues that are relatively normal, based on the three year averages: the Double-A Texas League, the Single-A Midwest League, and the Low-A Northwest League. The other two, the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and the High-A California League, are the two highest minor league run scoring environments (at least from Low-A up).

The Padres actually have affiliates in the four highest run scoring leagues, as the Northwest League and Texas League are next in line after the PCL and Cal League. It’s a bit concerning that Padres prospects will be accustomed to high-scoring environments in the minor leagues and then have to adjust to the major league’s worst hitter’s park upon reaching the show.

While leagues impact scoring throughout the minors, parks impact scoring within each league. At some point, we’ll take a look at how each Padres affiliate is effected by its home park.

Anyway, this chart should provide a quick reference when you compare a player’s stats across leagues or even years.

Previewing the 2012 Lake Elsinore Storm: Offense

January 31, 2012 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 1 Comment

Last year the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm won the Cal League Championship, so they will look to build on that momentum in 2012.  Of course they will do so with nearly a completely different roster, but that is just some of the fun of following minor league baseball.

The Storm will have at least two first round picks in their lineup, which should boost the offense.  The Storm’s offense was hurt last year after promotions of Jedd Gyorko and Jason Hagerty, and an injury to Edinson Rincon.  The weakness of the offense, though, was the lack of hitting from the outfielders.  Fuentes (.711 OPS), Meeley (.707 OPS), Olabisi (.658 OPS), and Payne (.245 BA, .819 OPS) all struggled in the very hitter-friendly Cal League.  This year should be different with Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano, first round pick Donavan Tate, and Rico Noel all patrolling the outfield.  So without further ado, here we go…

1)      Rico Noel CF/DH .253/.345/.347 50 SB, 4 CS
Noel struggled to find consistency with the bat last year.  However, Noel provides speed at the top of the order on a team that will challenge for the lead in SB.  Between Fort Wayne and Elsinore last year, Noel stole a combined 62 bases with only 5 CS.  Unfortunately in a deep lineup, with plenty of outfield, Noel will have to hit closer to .300 if he wants to remain hitting at the top of the order.  No matter how bad his offense is, Noel’s defense in center field will allow him to get ample playing time.

2)      Cory Spangenberg 2B .316/.419/.418 25 SB, 8 CS
Spangenberg was mister everything in Eugene, reaching base safely in all 25 of his games.  More impressive was that Cory had nearly a 2:1 BB:K ratio — that’s right nearly 2x as many BB as K.  The tides changed in Fort Wayne as he struggled the first month to make solid contact.  He rebounded nicely hitting .360 over his last 30 G.  Cory has the tools to demolish Cal League pitching.  While we might see his power numbers increase slightly, they will still not be nearly that of a Chase Utley.  Still, look for Spangy to hit around .330 with 25 SB at the break and be promoted to Double-A San Antonio shortly there after.

3)      Rymer Liriano RF .319/.383/.499, 12 HR, 65 SB
We all know about Liriano by now, so I figured I would point out an interesting nugget of info on him.  Looking at Liriano’s triple slash line, and knowing he hit third in the TinCap’s lineup you would assume he would have more than 62 RBI in 116 G for the TinCaps.  Nope.  Liriano last year found himself more as a table setter than anything else.

Everyone is excited about Liriano’s five tool ability, and believe me I have been on the Liriano band wagon since I saw him in the AZL a few years ago, BUT despite his impressive line, and his Midwest MVP award, I will hold off on anointing him the Padres number one prospect.  The reason for that is Liriano (who is now 20) is still young and has a long way to go before we see him in San Diego.  Two years ago we were all hailing Simon Castro as the next great Padres pitcher throwing him into the same sentence as Peavy, and yet when Castro was recently traded this offseason no one made much of a fuss (ed. note: Myron did!).  I am a huge Liriano supporter but as many of us know there is about as good of a chance that Liriano will never make it past Double-AA as there is he becomes an everyday MLB player.  I sure hope he lives up to his potential and becomes the next Vlad, but I am cautious.

4)      Connor Powers 1B 338/.422/.538
While Liriano rightfully won the Midwest League MVP, it was a tough decision to even name Liriano the team MVP because of what Connor Powers did for the club.  Powers gave Liriano someone to protect him in the lineup, and was able to “clean up” the bases every time Liriano got on.  Despite playing in 40 fewer games than Liriano, Powers ended up only one double behind him (30 vs. 29).  Powers doesn’t have the raw power that Storm fans are used to seeing from their previous first basemen (Freiman and Decker), but Powers has the ability to hit for a higher average, and has enough power that he could still belt 20 home runs in the Cal League.

5)      Donavan Tate CF/LF/DH .288/.410/.411 39 G, 29 BB, 35 K, 19 SB
Tate could eventually be the leadoff hitter, but without another “power” type bat to hit behind Powers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tate start the year off hitting fifth.  We all know about Tate’s abilities and we all know about his shortcomings.  If he can ever get his head on straight he can battle with Liriano for Cal League MVP.  Of course that is a big IF.

6)      Jake Blackwood 3B .269/.319/.456 17 HR, 36 2B
***OR Everett Williams LF/DH*** Blackwood was a Midwest League all-star before his promotion to Lake Elsinore (when Gyorko was promoted to Double-A) and he didn’t light the world on fire in Elsinore.  Still, Blackwood will either be around in Elsinore or San Antonio depending on what the Padres do with Gyorko.  Rincon will not be the everyday third basemen in San Antonio, as his defense still hasn’t improved, and Blackwood could provide that other bat in SA.  If that happens look for Bisson to be the everyday 3B.  Williams will split time in the outfield and DH.  Williams has a lot of potential, but had an attitude problem early in his career (too good to practice).  Well not much in stats and a big injury later and we will see if Williams has matured.  Williams still has excellent speed, but has not developed the pop everyone thought he would.  The potential might still be there but he is far away from reaching it.

7)      Rocky Gale/Emanuel Quiles C .267/.310/.333 (Gale), .211/.241/.279 (Quiles)
Quiles got the bulk of the starts last year behind the plate as he is a plus defender (at least compared to the other catchers the TinCaps had last year).  However, as you can see, he couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag.  In 300 at bats, Quiles had 13 xbh, 11 BB, and 64 K.  Gale provides more in terms of offense and got the bulk of the starts down the stretch.  Gale is a singles hitter, who is mainly just organizational depth.  As much as the Padres don’t want to rush Hedges, if he is hitting at all in Fort Wayne, look for a midseason promotion.

8)      Chris Bisson 3B/DH/2B  .261/.345/.321
Bisson, as well as teammates Noel and Guinn, were taken fairly highly in Jed Hoyer’s first draft.  Most importantly, all three of them were billed as “Petco park type players.”  Well so far, they may be Petco park players but they were not Midwest League players.  Bisson improved over the second half of the year hitting .274/.358/.341, but for a light hitting 2B it wasn’t enough.  Bisson should improve a bit in Elsinore, but unless he starts hitting over .300 with 30 SB he will get passed up and/or released.

9)      BJ Guinn SS .245/.307/.307 34 SB, 104 K
Speaking of light hitting middle infielders.  Guinn was supposed to lead the team with a .300 BA, 50 SB, and 100 RS.  Well, he had 18 extra base hits all year, a .551 OPS through the first half of the year and committed 29 errors at short.  We knew Guinn wouldn’t hit for much power, but the low BA, high K, and low OBP numbers are concerning.  Guinn was one of the big reasons the TinCaps struggled so much in the first half last year.  He will be kept around as the Padres need shortstop’s, but this might be his last chance, especially if Peterson hits well in Fort Wayne.

Look out for… Tommy Medica.  Medica hit fairly well in Fort Wayne before getting injured.  When he came back the Padres didn’t want to risk him getting re-injured and out for the remainder of the year so they kept him at DH/1B.  He hit .302/.440/.504 in Lake Elsinore.  If Medica is going to make the majors it will be as a catcher (where he has enough hitting ability to be a top 20 prospect on most teams).  However with Grandal in Tucson, Hagerty will stay in San Antonio which means if Medica is going to catch everyday like the organization wants it will be in Elsinore.  Also don’t forget that San Antonio only has DH half the time, and they also have big Nate Freiman at 1B.  While I originally had Medica in San Antonio, and he still might end up there, do not be surprised if he is the everyday catcher in Lake Elsinore (especially since there is not much else there).

Final Thought: This has the potential to be every bit as lethal of a lineup as the Storm have had over the past two years.  The team has some serious speed in Noel, Tate, Spangenberg, Liriano, Guinn, and Bisson.  They also have plenty of hitters that should hit at or close to .300.  Look for the team to challenge the league leaders in runs per game.  With the aforementioned hitters they have the ability to go all the way in the Cal League, especially considering they will have a rotation anchored by Madfriars numbers prospect Keyvius Sampson.

That other Decker

January 30, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

If all baseball articles posted online followed Twitter’s hashtag format, then #prospects would be a Worldwide Trend right now.

Analysts everywhere are crafting their top lists and blowing up websites and blogs. Books are lining store shelves and arriving in mailboxes to the collective glee of their recipients. Alexander Pope’s famous phrase, “Hope springs eternal…” is becoming more and more a reality for many organizations, San Diego in particular.

So, let’s continue in this vein.

In previous FF articles, I’ve looked at some prospects you may not have heard about. Guys like Connor Powers and Matt Jackson who, with another solid season, could crack the prospect list in a deep system. For this piece, I’m going to discuss Decker, a prospect many will be familiar with. No…not Jaff Decker. That other Decker: Cody Decker.

Decker was drafted in 2009 during the 22nd round out of UCLA. Over 191 games with the Bruins, Decker batted .288 with 47 HRs, 28 2Bs, and 153 RBI. His 21 HRs during the 2009 season led the Pac-10. On the glovework side, in 653 chances at 1B, Decker made just three errors, good for a .995 FLD%.

His debut in professional ball was worth noticing. In 198 ABs with the AZL Padres (Rookie), Decker hit: .354/.421/.717 (1.138 OPS…gulp). He was subsequently called up to Ft. Wayne (Low-A) at season’s end but only managed 18 ABs. For the 2010 season, the organization opted for Decker to skip Low-A, and the move paid off. In 507 ABs at High-A Lake Elsinore, Decker hit: .270/.352/.513 (.865 OPS). He clubbed 28 homers and  and knocked in 90 RBI. He also found the two-bag out of the box an impressive 35 times. Scouts and analysts alike were starting to take notice, as Decker found his way on many of the top lists.

So, why is he glaringly absent on this year’s lists? Good question.

This past season, Decker moved up to Double-A San Antonio. He only managed 177 ABs, hitting .237/.289/.525 (.815 OPS). The lack of at bats can be attributed to a devastating stay on the disabled list. Decker sustained a third degree ankle sprain while trying to beat out a grounder at first. The injury might as well have been a broken ankle, as Decker went on the DL on May 22, 2011 and wasn’t reinstated until August 23. Decker came back strong, however, including an impressive run in the playoffs where his Missions finished as Texas League Champions. In seven games, he went 9-25 (.360) with three homers and three doubles, when the games mattered most.

Obviously, missing the meat of the season, 2011 really shouldn’t count in the books as far as his status is concerned, but prospect analysis is very much a “what have you done for me lately” perspective. Myron pointed this out very astutely in the case of Simon Castro. His elite status was stripped away pretty quickly. In Decker’s case, one season of injury has unfairly (in my opinion) taken him off the radar as well.

Fangraphs’ advanced  info on Decker is also worth studying. Granted, minor league data isn’t as rich as major league data, but some of the basic advanced stats work just fine. It’s the predicting major league success from minor league numbers part that gets tricky. I’m currently working on a formula that will determine major league success based on minor league numbers. However, since that’s not complete just yet, I’ll speculate on Decker here shortly.

During his Rookie season in 2009, Decker’s BB% was a nice 8.3%. His K% sat at 18.4%. But the ISO is really interesting: .364. For some context, at the MLB level, Jose Bautista’s ISO in 2010 was the league best at .357. Definitely not a one-to-one translation, but the reference gives you some idea. In Decker’s case: fantastic pop, excellent discipline, and striking out around league average. I’ll take that.

During Decker’s 2010 campaign in High-A, he increased his BB% to 10.3. Unfortunately his K% also increased, in this case to 23.2. For a quasi-context, MLB average for BB% in 2010 was 8.0% and for K% it was 20.7%. The ISO, however, remained impressive at a .243 clip. Even during his limited Double-A season, his ISO totaled .288. Granted, the BB% dropped (5.8) and the K% increased (31.1), but a right-handed power threat will always have a spot on San Diego’s shopping list.

The question is, where will he play? Another good question. Glad I asked.

The bulk of his time has been spent at 1B. Unfortunately for Decker, though, 5’11” and 220 LBS doesn’t exactly profile well for an MLB first baseman. Don’t let the size factor prohibit consideration for the position, however. He as a total of 158 games at first and has committed only 13 errors in 1,467 chances, good for an impressive .991 FLD%. Further complicating the issue for Decker, though, is the trade for Yonder Alonso.  Decker is a year older and will have to watch Alonso completely fall on his face before he gets consideration. Decker’s been run out to left field and third base but only for a grand total of one game each.  He saw a total of seven games in left in his college career. In college, he was primarily a DH, so from my perspective, Decker might be better served on an AL team that can see him split time between first base and DH.

I’d hate to see San Diego lose a player like Decker, but I think, for his sake, a change to an AL organization would give him two avenues to pursue a big league career because his bat projects to play at this point. If he stays in San Diego, he becomes another slugger looking for a home behind the likes of: Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Matt Clark. He’ll likely start the season back in Double-A San Antonio to show that he can still swing it. If healthy, there’s no reason he couldn’t produce:  .280/.370/.560, if not even better.

What happens from there will be determined by what happens to Guzman and Alonso at the big league level and Matt Clark in Triple-A. Though, Clark can play a respectable outfield. But the way the club fell all over themselves for Alonso, he’s going to have every chance in the world to be successful. It’s a tough outlook from a San Diego roster standpoint, but baseball is always filled with opportunities.

I do believe, that big league talent finds the big leagues, and I see Decker as possessing that talent. It’s simply a matter of when and where he gets his shot.

The next Erubiel Durazo

January 25, 2012 in Myron Logan, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting, Yonder Alonso with 3 Comments

Generally, I’m hesitant to compare prospects to established major leaguers. There are so many subtle differences in player skill-sets that, without exhaustive research, I’m never all that comfortable with the comparisons.

Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo

After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help but think Erubiel Durazo.

At first, you might think that comparing a highly-touted first base prospect to Erubiel Durazo is my way of saying that I’m not overly high on Alonso, but that isn’t necessarily true. Upon reaching the majors at age 25, Durazo raked, and he didn’t stop until his major league career was over seven years later.

Note Durazo’s debut 1999 and Alonso’s 2011 in Cincinnati:

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
Durazo 185 .329 .422 .594 153
Alonso 98 .330 .398 .545 154

Pretty similar starts, though I certainly don’t mean to imply that I’m comparing these two players based on such a small amount of performance data. As mentioned, Alonso’s swing and movements simply remind me of Durazo, and it conveniently fits the narrative that the numbers are very similar.

Physically, they are similar too. Durazo is listed at 6’3’’, 240 on Baseball-Reference. Alonso: 6’2’’, 240. Both left-handed hitters. Durazo ended up hitting .281/.381/.487 in his major league career, split between Arizona and Oakland. Alonso has posted inferior numbers so far in his career (.292/.370/.466) – and that’s in the minor leagues.

Durazo played in Mexico prior to the majors and only spent part of one season in the minors before debuting in Arizona, so we can’t really compare minor league stats. He hit .404/.489/.703 that year in Double-A and Triple-A.

In the field, Durazo provided limited defensive value at first (he was traded to Oakland and became a DH) and he wasn’t particularly fast or athletic. The scouting reports on Alonso are similar. He’s not out there for his defense or base running.

Scouting or performance

Let’s face it, Alonso’s scouting reputation far exceeds his actual performance thus far. Based on the numbers, Clay Davenport* projects Alonso as a .260/.335/.400 hitter in his prime. That isn’t bad, especially in Petco, but it isn’t really what we are expecting out of the Padres new first basemen.

*Davenport adjusts raw minor league statistics for league, age, park effects, and various other factors to get a better estimate of the player’s major league potential.

Yonder Alonso = Adrian Gonzalez

Finishing where we started, PECOTA currently lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso’s number one comparable player. Number two: Jeff Clement.

Interestingly enough, there might be something to the Alonso-Gonzalez comp. Though Gonzalez was always young(er) for his league, both players put up underwhelming minor league statistics (but were highly-rated amongst scouts). Gonzalez, of course, blossomed into the player we had the pleasure of watching in San Diego for five seasons.

Then again, there is probably something to the Alonso-Clement comp, too.

As you know, there’s a large degree of uncertainty in player evaluation, especially prospects. Here’s hoping Alonso turns out more like Gonzalez than Clement. But I’ll settle for Durazo.

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