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Simon Castro is not Mat Latos

May 14, 2010 in Ben Davey, Mat Latos, prospects, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

On the same day that 22 year old Mat Latos threw his first CG shutout, a fellow 22 year old top pitching prospect named Simon Castro led the San Antonio Missions to only their third win in May (3-9 this month). This win has led many to look at the young Dominican phenom and liken him to last year’s top pitching prospect Mat Latos. These optimistic fans have even gone as far as saying that Castro should be on the same path to the majors as Latos. Let me make this clear, baring catastrophic injuries, and a drastic fall from contention we will not see Simon Castro don a San Diego Padres uniform in the next 3.5 months. These are different players, with a different front office, different prospects ahead of him, and most importantly a different year.

Lets just get the similarities out of the way. Both are 22 (Latos is 4 months older). Both were the #1 pitching prospect in the organization at the time. Both players skipped Lake Elsinore after obliterating Fort Wayne. Both players led the Mission’s rotation despite being the youngest member. Finally both players have #1 potential.

The single biggest factors that surround a top prospects promotion are how well the team is doing, relative strength at the position, and of course money. Last year the Padres were out of contention by the all star break and had already used 10 starters. Of those 10 starters only Peavy (traded), and Stauffer (1 start prior to ASG), had an ERA below 4. In fact the next lowest was Correia at 4.50 and Gaudin (traded) at 5.03. Needless to say the Padres were in desperate need of a starter. In addition the Padres also had flexibility in the 40 man as players like Geer, Silva, Hill, Floyd, etc… could all be DFA or placed on the 60 day DL without much of a concern. They had given other pitchers like Leblanc Geer, and Banks a shot but none were remotely effective.

Enter Mat Latos who after 4 G in Fort Wayne (25.1 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 27 K) was promoted to AA where he was equally as impressive (5-1, 1.91 ERA, 47 IP, 32 H, 9 BB, 46 K). So we have a team out of contention, with a desperate need for starters, other pitching prospects flailing, room on the 40 man, and Latos tearing up AA. Why not promote Latos at that time, especially since it was late enough into the season to not have to worry about Super 2 status.

This year is a different story. The team is currently in first place with the best record in the NL. In addition they are first in the NL in ERA (2.61), 2nd in BAA (.220), 2nd in OPS (.627), 1st in WHIP (1.16), and 5th in QS (17). Every starter has an ERA below 4! Castro is the #1 Padre pitching prospect (#2 overall), and was voted by scout.com as the #12 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and is currently leading the Missions and if he continues on his pace will probably be deserving of a promotion come the all star break. However, while his stats might be deserving the Padres are in contention, have crazy rotation depth (provided Stauffer recovers from his appendicitis and Correia comes back as the same pitcher after the untimely death of his brother), and do not have the flexibility on the 40 man that they did last year. Even if the Padres do begin to falter the current Padre rotation of Garland (30), Coreia (29), Richard (27), LeBlanc (25), and Latos (22) is still extremely young. Also I would have to think that if Garland is traded or someone goes on the DL there is still CY (if he is ever healthy), Stauffer (extremely deserving), Ramos, and Liz who are all on the 40 man roster and will probably have a shot before Castro.

Finally some people have mentioned that if Castro did not follow in the footsteps of Latos, than maybe his path would look more like David Price who was a September call up and helped the Rays into the playoffs and eventually WS. While this scenario is more likely, meaning Castro getting a September call up, the Padres have even better bullpen depth. Russell faced 14 hitters during his last call up with the Padres and retired 13 of them (1 walk), and yet because of depth was sent back down to the minors. The Padres have shown that the big 3 (Bell, Adams, and Gregerson) are nearly unhitable, Stauffer and his 0.49 ERA as a reliever, throw in Russell, Webb, Thatcher, Mujica, and even Ramos and Gallagher and this is one of the best pens in baseball. This isnt even considering the Padres have both the closers at AA (Italiano) and AAA (Frieri) on the 40 man and both are doing extremely well in their perspective leagues. So making the big assumption that every thing stays the way it is come September, tell me what is the point of calling up Castro if there is no place to play him? The Padres wouldnt call him up just to cross their fingers that we play another 22 inning game against the Rockies…

Despite Castro not being Latos or even David Price (talk about setting the bar low), Castro will be in San Diego soon enough. While it would have probably happened anyway, Castro will with 100% certainty be placed on the 40 man roster by November as he would be Rule V eligible. Now whether he starts 2011 in the Padres rotation remains to be seen. No matter the outcome the future looks extremely bright for this potential number starter, and while the temptation might be there, there is no need to rush.

Padres Minor League News and Notes

April 20, 2010 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting with 2 Comments

After only twelve games it is hard to make many assumptions or judgments as to the fate of the 2010 San Diego Padres’ farm teams. One thing I can say is that at this early point in the season the pitchers are well ahead of the hitters. That said, here is a look at some positives, negatives, and other observations twelve games into the season.

Portland Beavers (5-7); 3rd place (1 GB)

Positives- Batting: Craig Cooper didn’t even make the opening day lineup. Since then has hit .375/.405/.650 while leading the team in RBI (10) and 2nd in RS (7). Too bad he is a 1B… Denorfria and Mike Baxter have also gotten off to hot starts each hitting over .370…Durango has been on base 16 times this season and has 9 SB.

Pitching: Carrillo (9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and Inman (10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP 9 K) are beginning to put themselves back on the prospect map while anchoring the rotation…The Beavers have 4 relievers Frieri, Webb, Worrell, and Burke each with WHIP’s under 1.00, while all having at least an 8 K/9 IP average.

Negatives- Offense: Lance Zawadzki was/is competing for a job in SD has only hit .205/.286/.227 thus far with 3 E and 15 K (44 AB). ..Cunningham and Durango have not been terrible but have not come close to the hype they deservedly received during ST. Both are hitting around .260 with a .300 OBP...Barfield was only 3-18 before being put on the DL.

Pitching: No real negatives outside of the ERAs of Leblanc (7.20) and Russel (11.57). Of course both have come to SD and been lights out.

Notes: The team is sorely missing Antonelli, as the 2B spot has not produced much of anything this year. 8 of the 12 games have been decided by the bullpen (4-4), Beavers are also 2-4 in games decided by 1 run.

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Trip To Lake Elsinore

April 10, 2010 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting with 5 Comments

by Ben Davey

With the San Diego Padres playing in a morning road game, and the Lake Elsinore Storm hosting a home night game, what better time to go take the drive up the I-15 to the gorgeous Diamond in Lake Elsinore. Well I will answer that by saying do not leave San Diego at 4:30 pm and expect to get there before 6:40. But traffic is beside the point.

There is just something uniquely different about going to a minor league game that makes it so much different from going to a major league game. I will venture to say that it has a lot to do with the marketing. When I pulled up, almost every car in the parking lot, had either a family or a couple going to see the game. Most of them probably could not name more than a handful of players on the Storm, but they wear their gear, and they look forward to having a fun time, watching the mascots, seeing fireworks, and of course, hopefully seeing a Storm victory. If you have never been up to Lake Elsinore for a game, I highly recommend it. It is a different experience from the normal Padres games at Petco (plus its hard to beat Thirsty Thursdays)

Anyway, enough with the fluff piece, back to baseball.

Go figure, I go to a Lake Elsinore Storm game in the hitter friendly Cal League and I get treated to a pitcher’s duel… for the first 7 innings. After that, the flood gates burst open behind expert setup man Alexis Lara. A week ago Lara wowed Padre fans by pitching 2 innings in an “A” ST game, striking out the side in both innings. Tonight was a different story. Lara faced 5 batters, and 5 batters reached base. If it wasn’t for a good play on a carom by Carvajal to hold the batter to a long single, Lara would have allowed the cycle. Then, just for god measure, Schumacker came in and allowed that double to give the Mavericks a cycle for the inning. All in all the score went from 1-0 Storm to a 2-8 loss.

Before the offensive explosion by High Dessert, 1st round pick Nick Schmidt looked a WHOLE lot better than he did in Lake Elsinore last year. He got ahead of hitters, mixed his pitches well, and had hitters guessing the entire time. Making his first start of the year he was pulled after 79 pitches in 5 innings, I will not go out on a limb and say he looks like a player worthy of the lofty 1st round draft choice, but he at least is giving fans some hope that the 2007 1st round pick will not be a complete bust.

The pitcher that most impressed me though has to be Jorge Reyes. Maybe it’s because pitchers that throw a pitch and are immediately ready to throw another pitch have a special place in the hearts of fans who hate the 4 hour Steve Trachsel games. Not only did he throw one pitch right after another, I had him timed at 5 seconds between two pitches, but Reyes also had filthy stuff. Reyes pitched to the heart of the order over an inning and a third, and hitters looked anything but comfortable. Reyes retired every batter he faced, before being removed for the lefty Zack Herr.

Offensively the team is missing Padres #2 prospect Jaff Decker. I will give the hitters the benefit of the doubt that being only the 2nd game of the year, hitters are still trying to shake the rust off, and maybe the HD pitcher, Kenin Kasparek, had his stuff working for him the entire game, BUT the showing, well…looked like a Padres affiliate.

The Storm mustered only 1 run on 3 hits over the first 7 innings, and that 1 run only scored because of a passed ball and wild pitch on back to back pitches. The Storm scored their second run of the game after an excuse me swing single, an infield single (SPEED by Cumberland), and a single + error that let the run score. There were a few hard hit balls, and a couple nice plays (diving stop by the CF to rob Tekotte, and a diving stop by the 3B to rob Belnome), but as a whole the offense was not clicking the way the Tin Caps clicked last year.

Defensively there were some terrific plays and some head scratchers.

Defender of the game has to go to Cole Figureoa. In the first Cole made a nice basket catch on a flyball to RF. The RF (Carvajal) got a horrendous jump, but Cole was there to bail him out. Later in the game he made a great play on a bounding ball up the middle and flipped it over to Cumberland for the out.

Speaking of Cumberland, he did not look comfortable at all at SS. The first play of the game he pulled Dykstra off the bag, but Dykstra was able to make a swipe tag for the out. The next play resulted in Drew throwing a ball that barely got more than half way to 1st before bouncing. Later in the game he had a ball pretty much go right through his legs. Easily a forgettable game for him. After the 1st Cumberland error, the runner took off for second base. Not only did he get a huge jump on Schmidt, but Collins had one of thee worst throws I have ever seen. It nearly hit a ducking Schmidt, and ended up getting to second on a few hops.

As far as individual players, its interesting to look at their swing mechanics and listen to the type of contact they make. Dykstra for instance hits everything HARD. Each time Dykstra made contact with the ball, it flew a mile. Unfortunately for Dykstra and the Storm the mile was either foul or straight up in the air. You can tell though, that provided the timing issue is just rust, he will be a monster hitter.

Carvajal on the other hand….well what can be said that hasn’t already been said. Carvajal to me is the adult who pushes kids out of the way so he can use the batting cages and show off to whoever is watching. He has the strength, raw ability, and on paper should be able to crank one pitch after another over the wall. Instead, as it happens so often with show off guy, Carvajal fails miserably.

A few pop ups, some foul balls, and a lot of building frustration. Carvajal takes this huge swing that almost looks like a pitcher trying to square up on a Lincecum fastball, and comes up completely empty, looking horrible in the process. Finally something clicks and he shortens his swing. Unfortunately it is still Lincecum vs Latos (batting) as the shortened swing looked more like a series of jabs at the ball, each providing less and less contact. When he finally does square up on the ball, it went for an out and a foul ball, neither of which made up for the ugly swings earlier. I don’t know what it will take to get him to “click” but he has managed to quickly go from top 10 prospect, to being lucky if he is not cut in June.

I am a huge fan of both Tekotte and Robertson. They give 110% no matter where the ball is hit, and do everything they can to get on base. Of course the law of average stated that after Tekotte was denied a hit by a great diving stop by the CF, he came up to lead off the 8th and had an excuse me swing that landed over the 3B head in LF. They are tremendous defenders, and have a great head on their shoulder.

While the 2-8 drubbing looked pretty gruesome I will say this “Remain faithful Storm fans, there are quite a few reasons to be an optimistic.” Back to back starters showed us that the pitching will be there, and once Jaff Decker comes back and is added to Cumberland, Dykstra, Belnome, Tekotte, Robertson, etc… this will be a lineup to be feared in the Cal League.

And I will make a stand by my prediction that says the Storm will clinch home field advantage in the Cal League playoffs.

New Regime Means a Slew of Surprising Moves

April 5, 2010 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

by Ben Davey

Note: This Post Was Written On Sunday Evening

A busy 24 hours today in San Diego. Of course, Happy Easter, and happy soon to be National Holiday known as MLB OPENING DAY. More importantly I hope everyone is safe after the earthquake this afternoon.

With all that said the San Diego Padres new front office has only been in full force for a few months, but already they have made a change in philosophy to the Padres and down through the minors.

All Spring we learned that the new philosophy would be about pitching, speed, and defense, which is a far cry from Sandy Ball’s patiently aggressive and a walk and HR. While we know this is the new direction, and are for the most part excited about it; most of us were surprised to find out that the front office has some more tricks up their sleeves when it comes to filling out the minor league (and major league) rosters.

Today the Padres officially announced that they sent Adam Russel down to AAA, recalled LHP Cesar Ramos, added UTIL Matt Stairs to the 40 man roster, and DFA’d Chad Huffman. Also the Padres put LHRP Joe Thatcher on the DL.

The addition of Stairs and the DFA of Huffman are not the big news. The big surprise is the addition of Ramos to the 25 man roster.  The same Ramos that in 6.2 IP this spring gave up 9 H and 3 ER, and was one of the first players cut by the Padres. Russel on the other hand carried a sub 1 ERA throughout most of ST until yielding 2 ER in his final game in AZ. Russel ended 11 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 10 K. The big right hander seemed like a lock but will instead be in AAA to start the season. I guess the idea of going with the 25 best guys does not apply if there are no LHRP.

To AAA we go, madfriars gave a look at the AAA provisional roster (baring any last minute moves). Not surprised by the offense, aside from one notable absence going by the name of Logan Forsythe, who will be the Missions starting 2B. More baffling is the pitching side of the roster. Only 1 pitcher from the 2009 San Antonio Mission team has been promoted to AAA (Ernesto Frieri) Brandon Gomes and his 100 K in 72 IP to go along with 15 holds and a 2.63 ERA? Still in SA. Evan Scibner 3.07 ERA, 21 SV, 8 Wins, 77 K in 70 IP? SA. Mike DeMark 17 holds, 3.15 ERA, 55 K in 60 IP….you guest it, SAN ANTONIO. Also, and this caught me by surprise even more, tall LHP and jewel in the Peavy deal Aaron Poreda also in San Antonio.

To AA we go, again provisional roster by madfriars. Again we find some bold moves. Forsythe to 2B, Poreda in AA, and of course arguably the biggest move is that #1 prospect See-Moan Castro will be skipping Lake Elsinore for AA. Not on the list for pitchers is Nick Vincent or Aaron Breit both of which had great years for the Storm last year. Scribner, Gomes, and Demark, will now be joined by Oland and Italiano, making 5 pitchers each of whom pitched at the end of the game last year. In the rotation Castro will take over for probable opening day starter Corey Luebke who was injured throwing warm ups before last weeks Padre-D*Back game. He will be joined by Kluber, Pelzer, and Hefner; leaving the 5th spot open for Poreda (although reports were that he would begin the year in the pen) Culp, or hopefully Aaron Breit.

In Lake Elsinore, where I will be watching my first game of the year this upcoming Friday (report to follow), the biggest news might be who will NOT be their on opening day. Of course Castro will be in AA, but Jaff Decker will begin the year on the DL (again) this time after a hamstring injury. He is listed out for 3 weeks. 2008 Fort Wayne star closer Jackson Quezada will also begin on the DL making sure he is 100% before going to the Diamond, and C Adam Zornes will also stay behind in Peoria to rehab. Hitters are once again not a big surprise. Unfortunately without Castro a rotation of Bass, Schmidt, Fetter, Reyes, and Davis (or Breit if Breit is not in AA) does not look as fearsome. The pen will see Brad Brach and Alexis Lara taking over for Oland and Italiano, with Quezada fitting somewhere in the 7,8,9 role when he returns.

Finally some of the biggest head scratchers might come from reigning MWL champs the Tin Caps. The front office decided to push many of the young hitters giving starting spots to Galvez, Rincon, Liriano, and Everett Williams. However the same can not be said for the pitchers. As of right now neither top draft picks Kelvyus Sampson or James Needy are on the Fort Wayne Roster. Instead we see a rotation of Dexter Carter, Juan Oramus, Michael Watt, Jerry Sullivan and Pedro Hernandez. Oramus is coming off a good year in the Mexican League and Pedro was pushed last year in Eugene before returning to AZL. Lets just hope that we do see both Sampson, Needy, and Tate in Fort Wayne before the year is over.

So there you have it, the provisional rosters for each of the 4 full season clubs. Aside from Forsythe I cant say the hitters were much of a surprise, however the pitchers, mainly the relievers threw me for a second. From looking at the rosters I have to say that if Luebke comes back healthy, with that bullpen, and a lineup with Kulbacki, Carrol, Darnell, Forsythe, Hunter, Clark, etc… wow that team should be great.

On the Road with Madfriars: Spring Training

March 27, 2010 in interviews, prospects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

by Ben Davey

As with last year, we caught up with John Conniff of MadFriars.com on his recent trip to Peoria, Arizona to find out how the San Diego Padres’ prospects are looking this spring.

1) The first question has to center around Logan Forsythe. In the offseason we heard that he might go to second base, but it probably wouldn’t happen for a year. Then he started playing second base in spring training, with inkling that he might play it this year in San Antonio. How has Forsythe looked at second and will he stay there in the regular season? And where does he eventually end up Portland or San Antonio?

John Conniff: Based on what I was reading on the Union Tribune and on a few other sites I thought going to spring training that this was a done deal; Forsythe is now a second baseman. I interviewed Logan the first day I was in Peoria and he claimed this has been way overblown.

He has played a little at second in the spring MLB games mainly to give someone a blow. Ninety-five percent of the reps that he has been taking have been at third base and, according to Logan; no one has told him that he will be playing at second this year. The Padres coaches that we talked to have been saying that he could play some second but right now there are no plans to move him.

Since James Darnell is ticketed for San Antonio, I can’t see Forsythe not being in Portland especially with the way he has performed in the big league camp.

2) Last year Jeremy McBryde, Kellen Kulbacki, Steve Garrison, and Drew Miller were a few high profile prospects to miss significant time due to injury. How have they looked in Spring Training, and will they be healthy enough to join their assigned team for opening day on April 8th?

John Conniff: I didn’t see much of Miller, Denis may have more information on that that I do. McBryde has looked ok; he’s still on the fence between San Antonio and Lake Elsinore. Kulbacki is healthy but didn’t really show much in the game that I saw. When speaking with most of the coaches that all recognize his talent but really need to see more consistency from him especially as a corner outfielder/middle of the order bat. He should begin the year in San Antonio.
Garrison has looked good in drills but they are still being very careful with him after his injury. He should be available sometime in May and probably in AA.

3) Has spring training cleared up any of the questions regarding the Fort Wayne outfield? How have Williams, Tate, and Liriano looked this spring, and is there a chance all of them end up in Fort Wayne to begin the year?

John Conniff: Not really and I think there are quite a few debates going on right now. However I am pretty sure that Everett Williams will be in about any scenario. He impressed me the most of the three. Good athlete, simple, repeatable swing and a very solid idea of the strike zone for a young player. He doesn’t have the power of a Jaff Decker but they are similar in the fact that you can see they have played quite a bit of baseball. I think he could do pretty well in Fort Wayne this year.
Donovan Tate is a physical specimen and when he takes batting practice you can see what the Padres are hoping he will become. The problem that I think he has is that he really hasn’t played as much baseball as someone like Jaff Decker or Williams and is going to have trouble making contact right now against more advanced pitching. I didn’t see him hit a ball square the time I was out there. On what they will do with him this year, I’m not really sure they know either. In my opinion the best scenario is to keep him in extended spring training, work with him on baseball skills, and then send him to Eugene. If he puts up great numbers he can always begin next year in Lake Elsinore.
Liriano is another player that is a very good athlete but also struggles with the breaking pitch. Right now, mainly because he is so young and the team has so much outfield depth, it could be a reach for him to begin the year in Fort Wayne.

4) Is there any player(s) who have come to spring training looking drastically improved in body, attitude and or appearance on the field?

John Conniff: Nearly everyone I saw in camp looked, to use the Johnny Drama phrase from Entourage, “lean”. Seriously, the Jaff Decker looked great, between 195 and 200. He wasn’t that much heavier in Fort Wayne but you can tell he really worked out and replaced quite a bit of baby fat with muscle. Once he recovers from his hamstring injury he could really put up some numbers in Lake Elsinore this year.

5) With Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod now in charge it seems that the new organizational philosophy is adapting the players to Petco. Is this philosophy of being more aggressive at the plate and on the base paths being stressed in the minor league camp? If so, what is the general reaction by players and coaches to this new philosophy?

John Conniff: I think the new regime has pretty much the same philosophy as the old one, especially in how much they value on-base percentage and pitchers not allowing walks. The big difference is they are going to look for players that are a little more athletic and plan to be more aggressive on the bases. So in a nutshell they still want to teach the same philosophy, but just start with better parts.

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