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That other Decker

January 30, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

If all baseball articles posted online followed Twitter’s hashtag format, then #prospects would be a Worldwide Trend right now.

Analysts everywhere are crafting their top lists and blowing up websites and blogs. Books are lining store shelves and arriving in mailboxes to the collective glee of their recipients. Alexander Pope’s famous phrase, “Hope springs eternal…” is becoming more and more a reality for many organizations, San Diego in particular.

So, let’s continue in this vein.

In previous FF articles, I’ve looked at some prospects you may not have heard about. Guys like Connor Powers and Matt Jackson who, with another solid season, could crack the prospect list in a deep system. For this piece, I’m going to discuss Decker, a prospect many will be familiar with. No…not Jaff Decker. That other Decker: Cody Decker.

Decker was drafted in 2009 during the 22nd round out of UCLA. Over 191 games with the Bruins, Decker batted .288 with 47 HRs, 28 2Bs, and 153 RBI. His 21 HRs during the 2009 season led the Pac-10. On the glovework side, in 653 chances at 1B, Decker made just three errors, good for a .995 FLD%.

His debut in professional ball was worth noticing. In 198 ABs with the AZL Padres (Rookie), Decker hit: .354/.421/.717 (1.138 OPS…gulp). He was subsequently called up to Ft. Wayne (Low-A) at season’s end but only managed 18 ABs. For the 2010 season, the organization opted for Decker to skip Low-A, and the move paid off. In 507 ABs at High-A Lake Elsinore, Decker hit: .270/.352/.513 (.865 OPS). He clubbed 28 homers and  and knocked in 90 RBI. He also found the two-bag out of the box an impressive 35 times. Scouts and analysts alike were starting to take notice, as Decker found his way on many of the top lists.

So, why is he glaringly absent on this year’s lists? Good question.

This past season, Decker moved up to Double-A San Antonio. He only managed 177 ABs, hitting .237/.289/.525 (.815 OPS). The lack of at bats can be attributed to a devastating stay on the disabled list. Decker sustained a third degree ankle sprain while trying to beat out a grounder at first. The injury might as well have been a broken ankle, as Decker went on the DL on May 22, 2011 and wasn’t reinstated until August 23. Decker came back strong, however, including an impressive run in the playoffs where his Missions finished as Texas League Champions. In seven games, he went 9-25 (.360) with three homers and three doubles, when the games mattered most.

Obviously, missing the meat of the season, 2011 really shouldn’t count in the books as far as his status is concerned, but prospect analysis is very much a “what have you done for me lately” perspective. Myron pointed this out very astutely in the case of Simon Castro. His elite status was stripped away pretty quickly. In Decker’s case, one season of injury has unfairly (in my opinion) taken him off the radar as well.

Fangraphs’ advanced  info on Decker is also worth studying. Granted, minor league data isn’t as rich as major league data, but some of the basic advanced stats work just fine. It’s the predicting major league success from minor league numbers part that gets tricky. I’m currently working on a formula that will determine major league success based on minor league numbers. However, since that’s not complete just yet, I’ll speculate on Decker here shortly.

During his Rookie season in 2009, Decker’s BB% was a nice 8.3%. His K% sat at 18.4%. But the ISO is really interesting: .364. For some context, at the MLB level, Jose Bautista’s ISO in 2010 was the league best at .357. Definitely not a one-to-one translation, but the reference gives you some idea. In Decker’s case: fantastic pop, excellent discipline, and striking out around league average. I’ll take that.

During Decker’s 2010 campaign in High-A, he increased his BB% to 10.3. Unfortunately his K% also increased, in this case to 23.2. For a quasi-context, MLB average for BB% in 2010 was 8.0% and for K% it was 20.7%. The ISO, however, remained impressive at a .243 clip. Even during his limited Double-A season, his ISO totaled .288. Granted, the BB% dropped (5.8) and the K% increased (31.1), but a right-handed power threat will always have a spot on San Diego’s shopping list.

The question is, where will he play? Another good question. Glad I asked.

The bulk of his time has been spent at 1B. Unfortunately for Decker, though, 5’11” and 220 LBS doesn’t exactly profile well for an MLB first baseman. Don’t let the size factor prohibit consideration for the position, however. He as a total of 158 games at first and has committed only 13 errors in 1,467 chances, good for an impressive .991 FLD%. Further complicating the issue for Decker, though, is the trade for Yonder Alonso.  Decker is a year older and will have to watch Alonso completely fall on his face before he gets consideration. Decker’s been run out to left field and third base but only for a grand total of one game each.  He saw a total of seven games in left in his college career. In college, he was primarily a DH, so from my perspective, Decker might be better served on an AL team that can see him split time between first base and DH.

I’d hate to see San Diego lose a player like Decker, but I think, for his sake, a change to an AL organization would give him two avenues to pursue a big league career because his bat projects to play at this point. If he stays in San Diego, he becomes another slugger looking for a home behind the likes of: Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Matt Clark. He’ll likely start the season back in Double-A San Antonio to show that he can still swing it. If healthy, there’s no reason he couldn’t produce:  .280/.370/.560, if not even better.

What happens from there will be determined by what happens to Guzman and Alonso at the big league level and Matt Clark in Triple-A. Though, Clark can play a respectable outfield. But the way the club fell all over themselves for Alonso, he’s going to have every chance in the world to be successful. It’s a tough outlook from a San Diego roster standpoint, but baseball is always filled with opportunities.

I do believe, that big league talent finds the big leagues, and I see Decker as possessing that talent. It’s simply a matter of when and where he gets his shot.

The next Erubiel Durazo

January 25, 2012 in Myron Logan, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting, Yonder Alonso with 3 Comments

Generally, I’m hesitant to compare prospects to established major leaguers. There are so many subtle differences in player skill-sets that, without exhaustive research, I’m never all that comfortable with the comparisons.

Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo

After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help but think Erubiel Durazo.

At first, you might think that comparing a highly-touted first base prospect to Erubiel Durazo is my way of saying that I’m not overly high on Alonso, but that isn’t necessarily true. Upon reaching the majors at age 25, Durazo raked, and he didn’t stop until his major league career was over seven years later.

Note Durazo’s debut 1999 and Alonso’s 2011 in Cincinnati:

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
Durazo 185 .329 .422 .594 153
Alonso 98 .330 .398 .545 154

Pretty similar starts, though I certainly don’t mean to imply that I’m comparing these two players based on such a small amount of performance data. As mentioned, Alonso’s swing and movements simply remind me of Durazo, and it conveniently fits the narrative that the numbers are very similar.

Physically, they are similar too. Durazo is listed at 6’3’’, 240 on Baseball-Reference. Alonso: 6’2’’, 240. Both left-handed hitters. Durazo ended up hitting .281/.381/.487 in his major league career, split between Arizona and Oakland. Alonso has posted inferior numbers so far in his career (.292/.370/.466) – and that’s in the minor leagues.

Durazo played in Mexico prior to the majors and only spent part of one season in the minors before debuting in Arizona, so we can’t really compare minor league stats. He hit .404/.489/.703 that year in Double-A and Triple-A.

In the field, Durazo provided limited defensive value at first (he was traded to Oakland and became a DH) and he wasn’t particularly fast or athletic. The scouting reports on Alonso are similar. He’s not out there for his defense or base running.

Scouting or performance

Let’s face it, Alonso’s scouting reputation far exceeds his actual performance thus far. Based on the numbers, Clay Davenport* projects Alonso as a .260/.335/.400 hitter in his prime. That isn’t bad, especially in Petco, but it isn’t really what we are expecting out of the Padres new first basemen.

*Davenport adjusts raw minor league statistics for league, age, park effects, and various other factors to get a better estimate of the player’s major league potential.

Yonder Alonso = Adrian Gonzalez

Finishing where we started, PECOTA currently lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso’s number one comparable player. Number two: Jeff Clement.

Interestingly enough, there might be something to the Alonso-Gonzalez comp. Though Gonzalez was always young(er) for his league, both players put up underwhelming minor league statistics (but were highly-rated amongst scouts). Gonzalez, of course, blossomed into the player we had the pleasure of watching in San Diego for five seasons.

Then again, there is probably something to the Alonso-Clement comp, too.

As you know, there’s a large degree of uncertainty in player evaluation, especially prospects. Here’s hoping Alonso turns out more like Gonzalez than Clement. But I’ll settle for Durazo.

Greg Maddux or Kevin Slowey?

January 24, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 4 Comments

Recently, I found myself pondering and age old mystery: Do squirrels fart? I know….profound, right? Naturally, I then started to wonder if control artist pitchers would be any better at playing darts than pitchers with ordinary or no control, another one of life’s great mysteries. You can temper your enthusiasm as this article will not answer those mysteries. Some of you may be scratching your heads right about now, but I promise to tie it all together.

The recent trade of Kevin Slowey got me to thinking about high control pitchers. Yes, Kevin Slowey was traded again. Maddux and Slowey represent two of baseball’s best when it comes to not issuing walks. The Padres have two players almost major league ready that have very similar control profiles. Robbie Erlin and Joseph Wieland were acquired, as many of you know, from the Texas Rangers for Mike Adams before the 2011 trade deadline. Each has not disappointed since joining the Padres organization. Here are the career, to this point, minor league numbers for Maddux, Slowey, Erlin, and Wieland:

         ERA         H/9       BB/9         K/9
Greg Maddux

2.86

7.9

2.7

5.7
Kevin Slowey

2.13

6.8

1.3

8.6
Robbie Erlin

2.61

7.4

1.2

9.7
Joe Wieland

3.28

8.8

1.6

8.3

My first thought was… wow! Shouldn’t it have been Slowey with the great career? Interestingly, I came across an old Cubs scouting report on Greg Maddux. The biggest concern with Maddux was his control and his physical stature. Having read scouting reports on Robbie Erlin, he has many similarities to Maddux. Erlin has a very similar frame and throws about the same fastball speed as Maddux. Of course, Erlin is a lefty and has already shown great control prior to making the big leagues.

Wieland happens to be about the same physique as Slowey. Scouts seem to be very impressed with the control, command, pitch sequencing, and baseball aptitude of both Erlin and Wieland. Of course, the same could have been said about Slowey. Don’t get me wrong, Slowey is a legit MLB starting pitcher; but, clearly he is back-of-the-rotation filler.

Forrest Gump would probably suggest prospects are like a box of chocolates. I can’t help but wonder what the Padres have in Erlin and Wieland. Do they have a squirrels fart or a bull’s-eye?

A closer look at Vince Belnome

January 23, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres with 6 Comments

Justin over at Chicken Friars sort of beat me to the punch on this article, with his recent piece on infielder Vince Belnome. It’s a good read and covers the basics of who Belnome is as a player and potential prospect. I won’t regurgitate too much of his analysis here (hence, the link); however, I will explore some of his performance in a bit more detail and go so far as to say that I think Belnome will be on San Diego’s roster at some point early during the 2012 season.

Belnome is a player who hasn’t received much hype until recently. He doesn’t often appear on prospect lists, and if he does, he’s likely to be listed in the higher numbers. But fans and scouts alike are starting to take notice of the 5′ 11″ 205 pounder, and it’s likely because he’s proven he can handle himself with the lumber.

Belnome was drafted in the 28th round of the 2009 draft out of West Virginia. There’s a certain other Padres prospect who came from that same team a year later by the name of Jedd Gyorko. That’s probably a name you recognize at the top of most prospect lists, and for good reason. Gyorko was a second rounder and just completed an Arizona Fall League season where he nearly set the record for batting average.

Obviously, late-round picks are rarely given much fanfare, but ask Mike Piazza (62 round) what he thinks about draft order. (I know…he’s the exception.) Belnome is quickly becoming another example of proof that major league quality players can be found throughout all levels of the draft.

The reasons are simple: he knows what he’s doing in the box, and he’s not going to give away too many runs with his glove. Now, most teams look for elite defense up the middle. With Belnome manning second base, his defense can’t exactly be considered elite, so his prospect status takes a hit. But, let’s look at the numbers on both sides of the field and give him his due.

In three minor league seasons, Belnome has straight produced. He’s clubbed 43 HRs and knocked in an impressive 200 RBIs in 285 games. In 1,256 PAs, he’s walked 205 times and struck out 255 times. On defense, his fielding percentages break down as such (range factors per game in parenthesis):

442 CH @ 3B: .914 (2.64)

416 CH @ 2B: .976 (4.61)

177 CH @ 1B: .989 (8.75)

Now, 5’11″ and 200 lbs+ sounds like a nice frame for a slugging 3B, but you can see that his glove work at the hot corner is not terribly strong. As a first baseman, though, Belnome’s defense gets better. However, his height doesn’t fit the position. At second, Belnome seems to have found somewhat of a home. The FLD% is good, and the range factor is solid as well. The struggle here, though, is with the body as well. Big-bodied second baseman don’t fit the mode unless their name is Dan Uggla (5’11″, 205 lbs).  The position requires nimble footwork and quick bursts and turns of activity. Now, if you can slug like Uggla, people forget about the defense. Uggla’s second base range factor in the minors was 4.41, by the way, very similar to Belnome. So, essentially, at second, Belnome won’t give up many runs, but he also won’t save many, either. The question will be, can he slug like Uggla?

Let’s look a bit closer in that department.

Belnome’s 2009 season was an impressive introduction to pro ball. Between Eugene (A-) and Ft. Wayne (A), he compiled a gaudy slash of: .321/.444/.519 (.963 OPS). Additionally, only 32 of his 268 at bats that season were in Ft. Wayne. The organization thought highly enough of his bat that he basically skipped A ball, and was moved up to hi-A Lake Elsinore in 2010. In the hitter-friendly California League, Belnome put forth: .273/.397/.436. He knocked in a career high 84 RBIs that season to go along with 16 HRs, also a career high.

The following season saw him move up to Double-A San Antonio, notoriously pitcher-friendly. Not if you ask Belnome. In 267 at bats, he produced: .333/.432/.603. Just video game-like. He set a career best in HR with 17 in half the games of his previous season. He managed just 75 games last season due to injury, but many in San Antonio felt he was the team’s MVP, and the numbers bear that out.

Overall, Belnome’s career slash in three seasons looks like this: .301/.418/.500 (.918 OPS). In case you’re wondering, Uggla’s career minor league slash line in five seasons was: .276/.347/.442 (.789). Am I suggesting Belnome is the next Uggla? Maybe. Maybe he could be even better. Why? He’s got a considerably better eye. In low-A, Belnome’s BB% was 17.6. In hi-A, he maintained 16.8%, and in limited time in Double-A, it was 14.8%. Uggla’s overall major league BB% is 10.5%. [Granted, that's a minor league versus major league comparison. Somebody help me find data on FanGraphs that comes before 2006!]. The power is there, too. His ISO for those same seasons: .203, .163, and .270.

Now, he does hit left-handed, and he will be playing his games in Petco National Park, but I think you’ll see Belnome manning second base sooner than any other minor league infielder gets the call up. Once he establishes that he’s healthy, and once he starts demolishing PCL parks and pitchers, I think you’ll see the big league club take notice. He’ll look even better once Orlando Hudson scuffles again, preferring to spend his down time discussing the finer points of lawn mowing on Twitter.

Keep your eye on Belnome, and see if he doesn’t open some other eyes in San Diego this coming season.

 

Thoughts on losing Simon Castro

January 19, 2012 in Myron Logan, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting with 1 Comment

When the San Diego Padres acquired Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox, they gave up a couple of pitching prospects in Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. We’ve already discussed the trade in general, so now let’s focus more on Castro.

Right hander Simon Castro was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. He was quite raw, obviously, and didn’t really burst onto the big time prospect scene until after his 2009 campaign at Single-A Fort Wayne.

Castro pitched 140 and a third innings that year, posting a 3.33 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and .6 HR/9. Those are some pretty solid numbers, especially for a 21-year-old who had yet to really put it all together previously. After the impressive season, Castro ranked as the 57th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, the #2 Padres prospect by Kevin Goldstein, and the #2 Padres prospect by John Sickels.

Sickels called Castro an “excellent arm with improving command” and Goldstein said that “he will be an above-average major-league starter, with some scouts projecting him as high as a No. 2.”

in 2010, Castro jumped up to Double-A San Antonio and continued to perform. He again pitched 140 innings (10 and a third in Triple-A Portland), with a 3.28 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and .6 HR/9. The drop in strikeouts was a bit alarming, but overall the 6-5 right hander had a more-than-respectable year in his first taste of Double-A.

The prospectors didn’t waver. Baseball America rated him as the 58th best MLB prospect while Kevin Goldstein and John Sickels both kept him at #2 overall in the Padres system.

Last season Castro started out in Triple-A Tucson and lasted only six starts, posting an ERA over 10 and ugly peripherals. He was sent back down to Double-A San Antonio where he would regain some of his form. His ERA was 4.33, but as we mentioned in the Quentin trade analysis, his peripherals looked largely the same:

Year Inn K/PA BB/PA BABiP FIP
2010 129.7 20.2% 6.8% .271 3.34
2011 89.3 19.5% 4.3% .321 3.80

One could argue pretty easily that he was actually a little better the second time around in Double-A, as his strikeout rate stayed virtually the same and his walk rate dropped quite a bit. His strikeout-to-walk ratio jumped from 2.97 in 2010 to 4.56 in 2011.

Of course, there are some legitimate reasons to be concerned with Castro’s 2011 year. For one, he struggled mightily again in Triple-A, giving him a 9.50 ERA, 1.5 HR/9, and nearly one walk for every strikeout in 36 career innings. It’s a small sample, sure, but it is ugly performance. Further, he repeated Double-A and while his peripherals were a little better, it’s not as if he dominated.

After 2011, though, would you expect him to completely drop off the prospect radar? That’s kind of what happened. Baseball America didn’t list Castro in its Padres top 10, Kevin Goldstein rated him #20 in the system, and John Sickels didn’t even rank him in his top 27.

Now, prospect lists are certainly fluid, and Castro didn’t do much to build on his 2010 campaign. Further, the Padres continued to add minor league talent from the draft and trades, helping push Castro’s freefall – not to mention, other guys establishing themselves.

Still, if you’re trying to look at the whole picture, it’s hard to believe that Castro should have fallen this far based on his ‘11 performance. If he was a top three prospect prior to 2011, there’s no way he’s a top 20-30 prospect after. That’s only my opinion, of course, and the prospect experts certainly study these guys closer than I do and have a lot of scout/front office contacts.

The general point, though, is not about prospect lists. Instead, the concern is over what Castro could still become. We’ve talked a lot recently about the Padres depth in the minor leagues. Castro was kind of a guy who embodied that depth. Formerly a highly-regarded prospect, there he was sitting way down — all but forgotten — on our organization depth chart.

Castro is gone now and while we received Carlos Quentin for him (and Hernandez), at this point it’s not clear that the acquisition was worth the potential cost.

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