by Ben Davey

This is the 3rd in the 4 part minor league series getting everyone ready for the 2009 minor league season.  *Note there are only 4 minor league teams in April (Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore, and Fort Wayne).  Eugene, Peoria, and DSL all open up in June/July.  The further you go down in the system, the harder it becomes to project who will be starting at every position.  In fact, as of right now, I dont think the Padres know exactly who will be at Lake Elsinore, but just like them….we have a good idea.  So let’s again start with players that I am almost positive will start for the Storm (position wise):

SS (and probably leadoff hitter), Drew Cumberland-
Cumberland is probably the Padres best shortstop prospect.  And in comparing to past Padres is nearly the exact opposite of Khalil (offensively).  In 319 professional at bats he has struck out only 36 times, which is pretty incredible for an 19 year old kid (just turned 20 a couple weeks ago).  Also is incredibly fast and hits for a high average.  Do not be surprised to see him hit over .320 next year in hitter friendly Lake Elsinore.  Cumberland does have a few faults, as he only has 1 HR in all of the minors (very little power), he has was also injured for most of the 2nd half last year.  (He probably could have come back but Fuson decided not to rush him).  Also defensively has quick feet, but only an average arm (some say below average but I beg to differ).  I think he will be fine defensively, just needs more games.  IF he stays healthy next year, look for him to be the leadoff man, steal 30+ bases and have 100+ RS, to lead the attack of the Storm.

2B- Lance Zawadski
The interesting thing is that Zawadski is viewed as having the strongest arm in the system (By BA), and yet with Cumberland at short will end up being the 2B in Lake Elsinore (probably see some time at short, and DH as Parrino will also get starts at 2B).  Zawadski is a bit old compared to Cumberland (23 last year) but, in the wake of Drew’s injury, stepped in amazingly at the shortstop role.  Hit .273/.352/.399/.751 with 28 SB (3 CS) in the VERY tough Midwest league. Did have over 100 strike outs though (which will be something he needs to work on). In addition, led the team with 32 errors.  He might have a cannon for an arm, but definitely has some things to work on to lower the amount of errors.  Look for Zawaski to also hit closer to .300 in the much friendlier Cal League.
*Others to note; Beamer Weems (probably the best defensive 2b/SS in the system ) and Adrew Parrino will also probably appear on the roster*

And that is all the 100% sure of starters in the system (Yes only 2 of 8).  From here on out it is closer to an educated guess and based on hints from management and madfriars.com.

1B- Alan Dykstra (75% sure)
Dykstra was the 2008 1st round draft pick.  75% sure because there is a 25% chance he starts in AA.  He was “the man” at Wake Forest leading the team in power, and virtually every offensive category.  Very patient from the plate, and looks like THE HULK.  Saw him at the Storm game last year and he towered over the entire team (only 6’5″ 240 lb).  In only 24 AB in LE last year hit .292/.469/.458/.927.  Look for him to hit cleanup and be one of the biggest sources of power for the Storm.

25% Felix Carrasco.  Led Fort Wayne last year in HR with 16 (only person above 10), won the MidWest League HR derby.  But it seems management soured on him. His power numbers all but vanished in the 2nd half (13 2B 12 HR to 3 2B, 4 HR in 2nd half), also struck out 162 times in one year.  He has the power but his .237 average with the strike outs is going to make it hard for this Dominican import to ever become a great prospect.

RF- Sawyer Carroll (65%)
The OF for Lake Elsinore is a complete mess.  Most of the OF from the 2007 draft (not named Kellen Kulbacki) struggled or were injured in 2008.  While at the same time Sawyer Carroll, Blake Tekotte, Dan Robertson, and Jaff Decker had amazing 2008 campaigns, so the popular belief is that at least one of them will (pretty much) skip Fort Wayne and go straight to Lake Elsinore.  My guess is that Carroll will be that guy (if there is only one).  Despite spending the final 3 weeks in Fort Wayne, Carroll still led the Emeralds in HR (8), he was also 3rd on the team in 2B, and in players with 80 or more AB (sorry Darnell), Sawyer led the team with a .951 OPS (.299/.403/.548).  He was selected in the 3rd round of the 08′ draft, and his age (22) might be one of the bigger reasons why he makes it over Decker (18).  Carroll plays a solid RF with a good arm (has a 3B arm) and pretty good speed for a corner OF.  He is a fun player to watch, and shows a lot of heart out on the field.

Danny Payne (25%), Payne was selected in the supplemental 1st round (64th overall) of the 2007 draft.  After being drafted, hit .279/.444/.355/.799 with 17 SB and as many BB as K in Eugene.  Plays an above average RF (one of the top Padre defenders), and has tremendous speed on the basepaths.  08′ he was destroyed by leg injuries and in 39 games only hit .172/.342/.227/.569.  He has a lot of potential but needs to stay healthy.  Carroll passed him on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean a healthy and solid 2009 can’t put Payne back on the map. He was named most improved player at the Padres Instructional Leagues and if he doesn’t start at RF might start in LF or CF

3B- James Darnell (60%)
Was a last minute signing last year and thus only got into a couple games in Eugene and he did not disappoint (.373/.462/.582/1.044).  Like Dykstra, has great power, and is a very patient hitter offensively. Obviously he will not hit .373 over 500 AB, but hit .315 in his last 2 years at South Carolina, and .280-.305 is probably more accurate for Darnell.  He looks good at 3B, but there have been talks that he will move to either C or LF.  With Logan Forsythe also an above average 3B from the 2008 draft, Darnell will probably skip Fort Wayne, but don’t rule out a move in the next year.

Justin Baum (40%)
Baum is a former classmate of mine at Grossmont High School, so I am slightly biased towards him getting more PT.  Baum flew WAY under the radar last year and didn’t get any publicity at Fort Wayne.  And yet he led the team in both RBI (70) and RS (76), also 2nd on the team with 9 HR.  Baum is a great guy (and also recently engaged), so I am excited to cheer him on next year in Lake Elsinore.  Probably the biggest thing to put him on the radar is to improve on his defense.  He was 2nd worst on the team with 30 errors (ouch), but a year older and playing with Dykstra at 1st (solid defender) vs Carrasco (not a solid defender) should cut down on some of those errors.  Also decreasing the strike out numbers (111 last year) will help.

The last 3 spots are completely up in the air, as I do not think there is even a favorite going into ST.  So good luck to Fuson…

LF/CF candidates:
Luis Durango (check the AA post for his info, might not make the AA team though)

Brad Chalk- 2nd rd 07′ draft, above average CF defense, good speed, pretty good average, good patient
hitter….no power whatsoever.  (512 AB, 26 2B, 5 3B, 0 HR)

Yefri Carvajal- Last year was a top 10 prospect.  Thought of as a 5 tool player but didn’t play like it last
year.  .268/.305/.357/.662 4 SB, 100 K, 25 BB last year….ouch.  Only 19, might be in Ft Wayne again

Robert Perry- Broke on the scene last year as a 16th rd draft pick, but last year was a flop.  Another patient
hitter with good speed, but needs the power and offense to be there if he wants to start

Blake Tekotte- 3rd round 2008 draft.  Above average CF defense, power, speed, pretty solid patience and
average.  Was the instructs MVP “Tom Gamboa said. “His hustle, his defensive in centerfield, his batting,
his on-base percentage, stealing bases – he did everything.”” (from scout.com).  Probably see him in Fort
Wayne though starting in CF

Dan Robertson- 2008 NWL MVP, broke a league hit record (114), also had 20 SB while playing solid defense
in CF.  Good patience, solid contact hitter, reminds me a lot of Eric Owens.  Another guy who will more
likely start in Fort Wayne.

Jaff Decker- 2008 AZL MVP, .352/.523/.541/1.084, 1st rd pick last year.  Another strong CF, who despite
being 18 plays like he is 30.  Has tremendous upside (and is up there in rankings with Kulbacki and
Hunter).  Biggest down side is he looks like PMac but that won’t stop him succeeding in whatever league he
is at.

Catcher-
Luis Martinez is the favorite but when at the age of 23 you hit .223/.338/.298/.636 it’s hard to stay around, no matter what the defense looks like.  Chance Adam Zornes or even Emanual Qualies makes it, but Martinez is the favorite.

So here is the projected lineup

Drew Cumberland (SS)
Lance Zawadski (2B)
James Darnell (3B)
Alan Dykstra (1B)
Sawyer Carrol (RF)
Justin Baum (DH)
Danny Payne (LF)
Blake Tekotte (CF)
Luis Martinez (C)

Payne and Tekotte can play all 3 OF spots WAY above average.
It will be a fun year in Lake Elsinore.  Part 2 will be much shorter and will be on the rotation and bullpen

by Ben Davey

Often times the bullpen gets overlooked (outside of the closers role), however the Padres are the prime example of what a great bullpen vs. a horrible bullpen can do for a team.  In 05′-07′ the Padres had a sub 3.5 ERA from the bullpen every year.  They also limited the number of inherited runners scored to one of the best in the league (I have about 30% from my stats).  As a result the Padres played more then 162 games each one of those years (stupid game 163).  Then comes 08′ where the Padres had a 4.45 ERA and allowed nearly 50% of all inherited runners to score.  After seeing the difference Aki, Bell, Linebrink and Hoffman have made on a team (turning games into 6 inning games), the Padres seem on a mission to build a strong bullpen from within, and one of the biggest ways was to load up on pitchers with high potential (not just “strike throwers” who throw in the mid 80′s)  At least at one aspect of the minor leagues the Padres are near the top. That is in the bullpen.   As a result, they had some of the best pens in the minors (check out Fort Wayne’s pen).

Here are a few names to keep an eye out on during the 2009 season:

Michael Demark (08′- Elsinore/San Antonio)
In 2007 Demark went 2-1, 3.74 ERA; in 44 G in Lake Elsinore, in 53 IP, he struck out 70 hitters.  But because he also walked 30, the front office thought it best to have him repeat LE in 08′.  Well how does a 2.17 ERA sound in 49.2 IPto go along with 53 K, 19 BB, 35 H?  With pitchers that had 40+ IP in the hitter friendly Cal League, Demark was top 10 in almost every category, including being 2nd best in stranding 83% of inherited base runners on base.  If that wasn’t enough he got promoted to Tex in June and in 23.2 IP, gave up a measly 2 ER (0.76 ERA) 24 K, 5 BB.  He stranded an insane 91.3% of inherited runners.  (To put it in perspective, I believe the MLB average is about 65% and the Padres were just under 50% last year).

Demark is not what Padres fans are used to.  He throws anywhere from 90-94 and can top out at 96 mph.  He also has an above average slider that bites at the ankles (around 85-87 mph).  He has an unorthodox windup, that people call a “butterfly windup” (reaches for the sky), it is used to align himself, but also adds deception.  He was tied for 2nd in the Padres system in Holds (Heath Bell was #1, and Demark was tied with Oland for 2nd with 17).  He is working on his changeup (which is a work in progress) but as is is one of the best 8th inning guys in all of the minors.  He will be in either AA (maybe AAA) next year as the setup man (a role he loves BTW).  He is a competitive, and is very similar to Heath Bell (except for the weight).

Bryan Oland (Fort Wayne)
Speaking of top 8th inning guys, Bryan Oland was drafted last year by the Padres and in 07′ put up bad numbers in Peoria (6.30 ERA, in 16 games, 6 BB, 13 K in 20 IP).  So much so that the Padres didn’t even put him in Fort Wayne to begin the season (left him in Peoria for extended ST).  He finally got up to Fort Wayne and WOW.  44 G, 51 IP, 33 H, 8 BB, 64 K (yes a 6:1 K:BB ratio) – he went 4-1 with a 0.88 ERA.  A sub 1 WHIP, held batters to a 1.79ERA.

Again, not the normal Padre prospect.  Oland throws around 93-94 tops out around 95 mph on an above average fastball.  He also has an amazing split-finger pitch that sits in the 80′s.  He is basically a 2 pitch pitcher but is working on a slider and change (doesn’t throw them as a reliever with two really good pitches…). He is another guy that loves the 8th inning role, though has closer mentality whenever he takes the field.  It will be a big move going to the deserts of the Cal League, but will be interesting.

Jackson Quezada (Fort Wayne)
Due to how long he has been in the Padres system, he was added to the 40 man roster even though he spent all of last year in Fort Wanye (signed from the DR in 03′).  Led the Padres minor league in saves this year with 27.  In 59 G posted a 2.12 ERA, 63.2 IP, 42 H, 19 BB, 79 K, .180 BAA.  He also only gave up 1 HR the entire year.  In fact, aside from April (where he still only had a 3.75 ERA) his ERA went 1.76 (May), 1.42 (June), 1.93 (July), 2.25 (August).  That is pretty fantastic.

Jackson has an above average sinking fastball that sits in the low 90′s. The Padres also expect him to gain a few mph as his body fills out (only 22).  The biggest difference between last year (fringe prospect) and this year (top 30 Padre prospect on some peoples list) is the drastic improvement of his secondary pitches that he had been taught the previous 2 years (slider and change).  Look for his to continue to climb the ladder and big LE closer next year.

Greg Burke (San Antonio)
Sticking with closers, let’s go to the one with the most IP (84.1).  Interesting fact: not only was Burke undrafted, he was actually signed via a Padre tryout camp in 2006.  He tried to be a starter in Fort Wayne in 06′ then was moved to the pen in 07′.  Neither year put up any numbers to brag about.  Finally in 08′ he made it to San Antonio and his stock shot up.  In 59 G he had a 2.24 ERA, 23 Saves, 17 BB, 92 K.  For most of the year he had a sub 1 ERA, until a bad July curtailed that (all 3 of his BS). Still managed to post great numbers (aside from the 2-7 record, but a lot of the losses came from unearned runs).  Also went 1-1, 2.51 ERA with a save in the AFL.

Burke started the year throwing in the upper 80′s, but by the end of the year was throwing 91-94.  I will let you figure that one out, but the coach said it was due to intense workouts and conditioning.  Also throws a splitfinger and a slider.  His biggest problem is that he doesn’t really have an out pitch against lefties (who hit him reasonably well compared to righties).  His slider moves more like a cutter, and doesn’t have the dip that most pitchers use as their out pitch against LHB.  He will be the closer in Portland, so it will be interesting to see if this year was a fluke or if he has got the real deal.

Gabe Dehoyos (San Antonio)
Sticking with the Missions, let’s get to Gabe.  In 60 games last year he struck out an insane 110 batters (83 IP).  Went on to lead the team in holds with 15 while posting a 2.69 ERA.

Loves to throw up in the zone, and has a Chris Young esque fastball (it looks great and very hitable and yet he had 110 K off it).  Also like CY throws in the upper 80′s touching 90-91.  Best pitch is his cutter that he loves to throw.  However the difference this year is the huge strides that Bill Masse made with his breaking ball that became better than average.  Great downward movement on the hammer (12-6 breaking ball).  He was a free agent at the end of last season and I believe the Padres resigned him (not sure, though). I also believe he was signed as a minor league FA last year (I know he was with the Royals in 07′).   Biggest problem is age as Dehoyos was 28 last year.  If he was resigned he will at the very least be knocking on the door to San Diego.

Evan Scribner (Lake Elsinore)
Speaking of players who were not in the Padres system in 07′, Scribner was acquired from the D*Backs for old man river err… Tony Clark.  For the Padres system this year he went 2-1, 2.70 ERA, 20 G, 1 SV, 23.1 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 31 K (yes a 10:1 K:BB).  Overall, between two High A organizations and AA (23 G) he went 4-5, 2.00 ERA, 10 SV, 67.1 IP, 42 H, 13 BB, 93 K.

Why were the walk numbers so low?  Because he does what many of the Padres wish someone like Thatcher would do…come after a hitter.  Scribner has the mentality that he can come after a hitter and get outs.  So he does…no nibbling, strike one, strike 2, strike 3.  He has a slightly above average fastball that sits in the low 90s (90-92) with pretty good movement.  He’s got an outstanding breaking ball that he uses as an out pitch  If he gets two strikes on a hitter, BOOM..  Of course, his biggest weakness is well, he comes right at people and is only a two pitch pitcher.  But looking at the numbers and his makeup that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have two MLB quality pitches, and as a reliever we’ve seen you can get by with one (Trevor).  Look for him to hold games in San Antonio next year.

We also have a #1 pick coming off injury.  I believe his name is Matt Bush.  Provided that his rehab went well this is another guy who can turn up the heat as his fastball can hit 98 mph.

Honorable mention: Brandon Gomes, Mike Ekstrom and Aaron Breit (both did great after being moved to the pen), Robert Woodard, Wilton Lopes, Hampson/Thatcher/Cameron (though we already know who they are, and sadly KCam is gone), and Dylan Axelrod (I am sure I am forgetting someone).

*Just as a note I didn’t include anyone in SS Ball because a lot of the better relievers (ie Musgrave, Bass, etc..) will probably be starters in Fort Wayne next year and I wanted to just stick with relievers.  Also, players like Frieri who transitioned from the pen to the rotation was left off.