Archive - prospects RSS Feed

Previewing the 2012 Fort Wayne TinCaps: Hitting

January 18, 2012 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

Fort Wayne pitching staff 

For most of the 2011 season the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps relied almost solely on one hitter and one hitter only, Midwest League MVP Rymer Liriano.  The offense was so desolate that they were Padre-esque.  The 2011 TinCaps scored two or fewer runs in 32 of their first 72 games.  Their fortune started changing in the second half when Connor Powers started paying immediate dividends.   The good news is that Powers and later Cory Spangenberg helped fuel the team to the playoffs, the bad news for the 2012 team is that Liriano, Spangenberg, Powers, and nearly everyone else from the 2011 squad will be in Lake Elsinore in 2012.

The 2012 squad will look for new blood to help them get back to the playoffs.  It will be a very young team filled with players who have the potential to be in the upper echelon of prospects.  So without further ado here is your 2012 team.

1)      Jace Peterson, shortstop:
Selected in the first round by the Padres and picked by Matt Eddy as his breakout player for the 2012 season, Peterson has the speed and ability that you want to see at the top of any order.  He had 39 SB (10 CS) in 73 G and could easily get over 50 in a full season.  Peterson is a slick fielder, which means for once, that the Padres don’t have to face an immediate question as to whether or not he will be moved to second base (see Galvez, Cumberland, E-Cab, etc…).  The question will be whether Jace can hit well enough to stay at the top of the order.  Hopefully we can see a better season out of Jace than we did out of Guinn last year (.245/.307/.307, 34 SB).

2)      Casey McElroy, second base:
McElroy was taken in the 11th round and signed right at the deadline for above slot money.  McElroy play second base in high school but shortstop at Auburn.  With Jace at short he will undoubtedly return to second.  With Auburn, McElroy led the SEC in hits, and finished in the top 10 in nearly all offensive categories including batting average (.370), RBI (53), HR (9), and 2B (18).  He hit .301/.381/.466 in 19 games in Eugene.

3)      Luis Domoromo, left field:
Domoromo will be more than likely be returning to the TinCaps to begin the 2012 season.  For a 19-year-old in Fort Wayne, Luis had a pretty spectacular 2011 season hitting .283/.335/.405 with 9 HR and 68 RBI in 112 games.  The Venezuelan should only get stronger and better during the offseason.  If Domoromo can work on his eye, as he continues to build muscle, he very well could be a MWL All-Star.

4)      Lee Orr, designated hitter:
Orr led the Ems in HR (8) and was one of the leaders in the NWL.  Orr has some of the best power on the team and can be a 20-20 guy in the MWL.  The question will be whether or not he can hit enough in the MWL.  Orr hit only .219 with 88 K in 62 G.

5)      Jose Dore, right field:
Dore signed at the deadline in 2010, hit .375 in the Arizona League, and the came to Fort Wayne last year after the Tate/Williams collision.  After hitting well initially, Dore struggled to make solid contact.  After struggling he was demoted to Eugene where he once again struggled making solid contact.  Dore has a big arm, is a plus fielder, great power, and has yet to turn 20.  Dore has the makings of a top prospect but will need to cut down on his strikeouts as he had 111 Ks in 98 combined games between Eugene and Lake Elsinore.

6)      Duanel Jones, third base:
Another young prospect with a lot of potential.  Jones, as many know, was given a huge bonus as a 16-year-old, only to have it taken away when he tested positive for an illegal substance.  Well that voided contract was the opportunity the Padres needed to swoop in.  While he struggled at times in Peoria and Eugene, he did show great power (8 HR in 37 AZL games), and has the chance to develop into a strong middle of the order hitter.  But for right now as a 19-year-old, batting a little lower in the order should relieve some of the pressure.

7)      Austin Hedges, catcher:
Coming into the draft we kept on hearing: “Hedges is already an MLB quality backstop on defense, but the offense will be the question.”  However, from interviewing Randy Smith among others, and looking at his stats, he has been a pleasant surprise on offense.  Hedges defense will be top notch, but if he can hit even .250/.320/.380, he will continue to jump up the prospect charts.

8 )      Zach Kometani, first base:
He might be the default first basemen and split time with quite a few others, but for the time being he is the best choice at first.  The USD product has pretty good power (second on the Ems in both HR (4) and 2B (13)), but does not have a great eye at the plate, and like way too many first basemen has a longer than normal swing that will affect his batting average.  The best case is a Cody Decker type player, but more than likely will be lucky make it to Double-A.

9)      Kyung-Min Na, center field:
Acquired in the Anthony Rizzo trade, Na provides speed and defense for the TinCaps.  Na is the type of player that when he learns how to run the bases has the speed to be a 50+ SB player.  The question is, will he hit enough?  Na hit .171/.276/.184 in 25 MWL games last year.  A year older and the now 20-year-old should hopefully provide that spark at the bottom of the lineup.  If he can hit like the Padres hope (as they essentially gave up Cates for him), he can provide a dynamic one-two punch with Peterson, but for right now I see him batting at the bottom of the order until he can prove he can hit.  (See what they did with Guinn towards the end of last year).

A case for Cord Phelps

January 16, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres with 5 Comments

There’s been plenty of talk this offseason about moves the San Diego Padres have made. Like them or not, Josh Byrnes has not hesitated to pull the trigger on deals that he thinks are best for the team.

What has also been discussed around the virtual watercooler are the moves Byrnes hasn’t made. The one I’m interested in the most for this piece is the acquisition (or lack thereof) of middle infield starters. After all the deals that have been done, San Diego is still without proven talent at SS or 2B.

Fans and bloggers alike were clamoring for help at these critical positions. The assumption was, since we didn’t acquire any, then such players must: #1 not be out there, or #2 must not be available. In looking at San Diego’s system, it is difficult to believe that ownership wasn’t attempting to upgrade at these positions. However, maybe they feel comfortable with any of Logan Forsythe, Everth Cabrera, Beamer Weems, Jeudy Valdez, Jonathan Galvez, or a healthy Drew Cumberland. One could argue a case for any of them, although most on that list are 1-2 years away.

I did some investigating into potential options that would be viable for San Diego to acquire. Viable was really at the crux of my research. It’s easy to dream for guys like Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, etc, but those are pies in the sky. So, on the one hand, there are plenty of talented, young players at those crucial positions; but, not surprisingly, teams aren’t interested in parting with them (takes care of #2 above). The other side of the coin seems to indicate that available talent in that area is limited. Many names that piqued my interest were still 1-2 years away. If the wait is that long, why look outside the organization?

There was one name, though, that struck a chord (apologies): the Cleveland Indians’  Cord Phelps.

Now, if you do the research, Phelps is not an elite prospect by any means, and most scouts would probably project him to be a utility guy. To me, though, I see some opinions wavering as to his future status. Some think he might blossom if given a starting gig. I’m firmly entrenched in that camp.

First, let’s look at his career MiLB slash line over four seasons (I’m not going to consider his MLB numbers since he only has 71 at bats under his belt.):

.288/.376/.434 (.810 OPS)

Obviously, the OBP stands out. Over the past three seasons, he’s had more than 375 AB per season. In 2009 (A+), his OBP was .386. In 2010 (AA/AAA), it was .368. Finally, in 2011 (AAA), it was .376. Those percentages are consistently strong.

Now, let’s look at some advanced stats. Keep in mind, these are his MiLB numbers we’re talking about, and we know that past performance doesn’t always predict future success.

His wOBA over those seasons: .350, .383, .377.  Again, average is typically around .330. Impressive, right? There’s more. His BB% over those three seasons averages out to 10.8. Anything in the double digits in BB% is considered above average. The guy has excellent plate discipline.

Additionally, his K% over those three seasons averages out to 16.2. That percentage might even be slightly elevated, since his K% in Triple-A Columbus last season was 20.5, generally six to seven percentage points higher than his typical performance. Why? Likely because he wanted to prove he had some pop, as he hit a career-best 14 homers that season, nearly double the output of his previous career-best.

Phelps’ track record also has a nice history when it comes to runs created. Here are his wRC+ numbers for those same seasons:

2009 (A+) 115
2010 (AA) 96
2010 (AAA) 141
2011 (AAA) 134

So, in High-A Kinston of the Carolina League, Phelps was 15% better than league average, and during the first half of 2010 in Double-A Akron, he was 4% worse than average. He made significant improvements in this category in Triple-A. For the last half of 2010, he was 41% higher than average and then this past season he was 34% better.

Now, there’s plenty more, but I wanted to focus on his ability to get on base and to create runs. I think we should harken to the old days where your middle infielders are the guys at the top of the lineup who set the stage and score the runs. He seems to be well-suited to the 2-hole, as he hits from both sides of the plate and scouts say his swing stays in the zone for a long time, allowing him to barrel up the ball.

Phelps is also looking for a home. He’s currently on the Indians radar as a utility player. He can play 2B, SS, and 3B. In fact, this fall, they tested him out at 3B during the Arizona Fall League. He’s blocked by a couple of prospects that are in line to inherit his positions. Lonnie Chisenhall is earmarked for  third base, Cabrera has short stop locked down, and Jason Kipnis is slated to be the regular second basemen. I say we make a move to acquire Phelps and make him either our short stop or second basemen. I wouldn’t give up any major prospects for him, but I could see an MLB bench guy plus a young arm in the system. Jesus Guzman makes sense and would fit well in the AL.

Now, defensively, Phelps is not a wizard, but he’s not a butcher, either. Let’s look at his range factors for the seasons above:

RF/G 2B SS
2009 4.72
2010 4.30
2011 4.09 4.08

Those numbers put Phelps right in line or slightly above the players currently in the system that I mentioned earlier, with the exception of Cabrera whose RF/G is generally higher. So it seems as though he’s capable with the glove and has a really nice approach at the plate. That’s why I think he’d be a good fit for the lineup.

I’d love to see him take over at shortstop, but I’m not sure he has what it takes to play the position at the major league level. Peter Friberg makes some interesting points  for Weems as a potential short stop, and Valdez seems to be suited for the position defensively, so maybe Phelps could hold that fort down until the lower level guys establish themselves, then switch to second.

Any takers?

Friar Forecast contributors on Anthony Rizzo deal

January 7, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, trades with 3 Comments

My take on the Anthony Rizzo/Andrew Cashner swap is decidedly rotten. I figured it’d be interesting to gather the opinions of the rest of Friar Forecast on the deal. Chris Kelly will have his analysis as part of his Monday article, but here’s what Daniel, Scott, and Ben thought about the trade.

Daniel Gettinger

In swapping Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates for Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na, the San Diego Padres made a trade that is difficult to defend.

To see why, let’s make a few assumptions, that would seemingly tilt the deal in the Padres favor:

1) Anthony Rizzo profiles similarly to Adam LaRoche, a solid but highly replaceable first baseman.

* As Myron already outlined, although Rizzo is not a perfect prospect, he is relatively young, has had great success in the minor leagues, and is still highly rated by scouting gurus such as John Sickels. Prior to his 2011 campaign, in which he hit .331/.404/.652 in AAA, Geoff Young suggested Adam LaRoche as a good comp. for Rizzo. Although Rizzo struggled in his small sample of major league at-bats, his AAA performance suggests, in expectation, he still profiles to be at least as good as Adam LaRoche.

2) Andrew Cashner will quickly develop into a hard-throwing top flight reliever such as a Jonathan Broxton.

* Upon first hearing about the trade, my initial thought was, “somebody in the Padres organization clearly thinks Cashner can be a number two starter,” but reports since the trade suggest the Padres view Cashner as a reliever, with only the possibility of him becoming a starter in the future. Therefore, lets say the best case scenario is for Cashner to pitch top-notch ball out of the bullpen immediately, and do so for a number of years.

3) Zach Cates is no better a prospect than Kyung-Min Na.

* There are few (if any) favorable scouting reports on Na, while Cates seems to have some potential. For the sake of argument, lets say that Na and Cates are equivalent prospects.

Operating under these assumptions, and the fact that teams have six years of control until a player reaches free agency, the Padres, at best traded the first six years of Adam LaRoche’s career for years 2-6 of Jonathan Broxton’s career (Cashner already has over one year of service time).

Below is a table outlining the WAR (according to Fangraphs) accumulated by LaRoche (2004-2009) and Broxton (2006-2011) in their first 6 years.

LaRoche Broxton
Year 1 0.9 N/A
Year 2 -1.2 2.0
Year 3 2.5 2.2
Year 4 2.3 2.8
Year 5 1.5 1.1
Year 6 2.4 -0.3
TOTAL 8.4 7.8

With the exception of 2011, Broxton was about as good as a reliever can be in his 2-6 years, and he was still worth less in terms of WAR than Adam LaRoche in his first six years.

My assumptions were very favorable for the Padres in that they limited Rizzo’s upside to Adam LaRoche, assumed Andrew Cashner will be as good of a reliever as Jonathan Broxton, and ignored that Cates is likely a better prospect than Na. Even with these assumptions in place, trading Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner appears to be at best an even deal.

Unless the Padres (and the rest of major league baseball) believe Anthony Rizzo’s upside is that of Adam LaRoche, and Rizzo comes with considerable downside risk as well, the Padres could have received greater value by holding out for a different deal.

Scott Tanderup (also posted on Scott’s blog)

A lot of initial fan backlash on this trade. I don’t have a huge problem with this trade and may actually like it. It is clear from the Latos and now Rizzo trade that a top middle infield prospect that is close to ML ready is just not available. There is such a huge drop in talent from guys like Machado and Profar to the next level of middle infield prospect. Some fans wanted Wade Davis from the Rays. Why? I wouldn’t put him ahead of Anthony Bass on the depth chart.

The biggest argument against this trade is from a “value” standpoint. Clearly, the Cubs valued Cashner very highly or Cates would not have been added. Many fans feel Rizzo has far more “value” than Cashner.

What I like about this trade is that the Padres get a reliever that should be very effective at Petco in 2012 and still control him for several more years as they work to figure out what Cashner’s real future is. Cashner has solid stuff and a plus-plus fastball. His control has been improving each year and now he has a chance to work with Black and Balsley. The Padres essentially are getting a solid late inning relief guy with elite starter upside. The one thing the Padres deep stable of pitching prospects has lacked is an “elite” upside pitcher that is ML ready or close to ML ready. You could make an argument that Cashner has the best “stuff” of any Padres player or prospect. This represents the beginning of the next “phase” in the Padres future… acquiring and drafting “elite” upside players. I think you will see the trend continue in the 2012 draft. The days of drafting safe college players are behind the Padres.

Byrnes, in my opinion, has done an excellent job of continuing the movement for the future while simultaneously putting together a team in 2012 that may surprise. Cashner fits both the “win now” and “build for the future” scenarios.

I realize I may be in the minority, but they had the depth to take the gamble.

Ben Davey

I am not a big fan of the trade. Both Rizzo and Cashner have question marks. However, if both pan out, Rizzo’s value as an all-star first basemen far outweigh that of a  closer. Would you trade Ryan Howard for Jonathon Broxton? Didn’t think so.

Please step forward: Upper Minors

January 5, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 0 Comments

We can revel in the exceptional depth of the current San Diego Padres farm system all day long, but until players start graduating all we have are dreams of future success. There are a handful of prospects in the Padres system that need to take a step forward this coming season. Here are two in the upper minors that have an opportunity this year to force the Padres hand by 2013.

Casey Kelly

One of the centerpieces of the A-Gon deal, Kelly needs to show why he has been consistently rated as a top prospect. Thus far, his performance has been tepid in the eyes of many Padre fans. He enters what is essentially the equivalent to his third season of pitching in the minors. He was rushed to Double-A ball pretty quick as a 20 year old. He started out as a short stop for the Red Sox. He has yet to impress at the Double-A level. Scouts still believe in his potential.

Personally, I see him this year the way Cory Luebke was after the 2008 season. Although never as highly regarded, Luebke was expected to produce better than his early performance in the Padres system. Something clicked with him beginning with the 2009 season. I think Kelly may do the same. Another mediocre year from Kelly could take him out of the prospect landscape.

Jaff Decker

The Phoenix area native enters his fourth full season in the Padres system in 2012. He should start the season in Double-A, but could end up with Tucson by the end of the year. Decker’s OPS has fallen each season as he progresses. The good news is that his defense seems to be improving each year and his conditioning has been solid.

Decker’s minor league performance thus far reminds me of Will Venable’s major league performance, flashes of brilliance with an extreme swing of the pendulum the other way. In Decker’s case, some of it may be due to injuries. While the offensive regression should be cause for concern, he has managed to maintain exceptional plate discipline. Excellent plate discipline and a poor BABIP, in recent years, has me believing that Decker will rebound with a solid performance this year. Decker will be fine, IMO.

I look forward to seeing if Kelly and Decker take a big step forward in 2012.

 

Ben chats with Matt Eddy at MadFriars

January 4, 2012 in links, Myron Logan, prospects, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

Our own Ben Davey also writes for MadFriars about the San Diego Padres minor league system. Check out his recently posted interview with Matt Eddy, the Padres expert at Baseball America.

Lots of great discussion on BA’s methodology, Rizzo and Alonso, Drew Cumberland’s return, and the Padres system in general. Both articles are free, but consider subscribing to MadFriars for the rest of their top-shelf prospect coverage if you’re not already.

Page 3 of 31«12345»102030...Last »