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Linebrink dealt to Brewers for Inman, Garrison, and Thatcher

July 26, 2007 in prospects, San Diego Padres, trades with 5 Comments

I was just about to write a post on how the Padres were probably better off just keeping Linebrink at this point. And then this. My first reaction was “great deal” and my second reaction is, well this…

First let’s take a second to thank Scott Linebrink. He had two great years in San Diego and a couple more solid ones. He pitched valuable innings and, generally, pitched them well. He was cheap, he was reliable, and he was above average. Linebrink was a very good Padre. Now, however, the times have changed a bit. Linebrink’s dropping k rate and rising hr rate are definitely causes for concern. Here they are:

2004: 8.89 k/9 – .86 hr/9
2005: 8.55 k/9 – .49 hr/9
2006: 8.09 k/9 – 1.07 hr/9
2007: 5.00 k/9 — 1.80 hr/9

It’s important to note, I think, that these numbers are due to some fluctuation because of the smaller samples when we’re dealing with relievers. However, a 3 k/9 drop in k rate over 45 innings is something that is not all attributable to luck, or randomness, or what have you. It’s very much a skills related stat and Linebrink’s drop is a bit puzzling this year. Also, a drastic rise like that in hr rate is alarming. Linebrink’s FIP this year is 5.69, the highest of his career. I wouldn’t really be surprised if he’s pitching with an injury. Here’s Nate Silver’s take on Scotty:

“His QuikERA (my preferred version of PERA) is 4.78, and that’s pitching against National League West hitters in Petco Park. Yeah, Linebrink been better than this in the past, but relief pitchers have short life spans, and the general rule is that declines in their peripheral performances are fairly sticky”

Investing in a 31 year old reliever with declining peripherals is not something that I’d really want to do. Especially when the investment involves 3 pretty good prospects. For what it’s worth, I looked at Linebrink’s top 10 comps via BP, and calculated their ERA and IP in their age 31 season. They averaged 68 innings and a 3.90 ERA … and that’s of course before accounting for Linebrink’s poor 2007. No matter what, he’s not nearly bad enough to just give away, so let’s see what the Padres got in return.

Will Inman is probably the marquee player in the deal. He’s a 20 year old right who is struggling at AA. Yes, that’s AA and 20 years old, something you don’t hear to often in Padre prospect land. So far this year in 39.7 innings, he’s put up the following stat line:

5.44 ERA
4.91 FIP
42 k’s
16 walks
7 hr

His main problem seems to be giving up homers on fly balls. He has an impressive 50% gb rate, yet he has still given up 1.62 homers per 9. He started the year in high A ball where he was much more dominant. Last year he pitched in A ball West Virginia. Here’s his combined line from those two stops…

189.4 innings, 1.71 ERA, 232 k’s, 24 bb’s, 7 hr’s

Not bad!

 However, Inman is one of those guys who scouts (and even some statheads) think may not have the stuff to dominate at higher levels. Think maybe Yusmeiro Petit. Here’s what BP said in the annual:

“He’s not overpowering, instead relying on plus control, a hard curve, and a willingness to go after hitters”.

In their annual, where they ranked him as the Brew Crew’s third best prospect, Baseball America had similar, yet still not pessimistic things to say about Inman. We’ll certainly see how he pans out, but he’s still valuable property no matter how you slice it.

The Padres also acquired lefty reliever Joe Thatcher in the deal (ranked 23rd by BA). Thatcher is 26 and could definitely make an impact this year. By the numbers, he’s been pretty unbelievable. This year is AA Thatcher has k’ed 33 and walked 7 in 21.7 innings. He is yet to surrender a homer and he has a .380 BAbiP. To me, it’s always a nice sign when you can have a .380 BABiP and a 2.02 ERA. Here’s his staggering minor league line:

128.4 innings, 1.26 ERA, 160 k’s, 31 bb’s, 4 hr’s

His ground ball rate is well over 60%. Yikes, those are some unreal numbers! A lefty specialist isn’t *that* valuable or anything. I guess. These numbers really are staggering, though. BA had this to say on Thatcher in their handbook:

“Thatcher operates with a cutting 88-91 mph fastball and a sweeping slider from a low three-quarters slot. He throws strikes and provides a deceptive look with a  funky cross-body delivery”.

The Padres also netted 20 year old lefty Steve Garrison (ranked 27th by BA). Garrison’s working on his second straight solid year in A+ Brevard County. In 104.7 innings he’s struck out 74 and walked 28, while giving up 7 homers. Last year, in A ball, in 88.7 innings he struck out 77, walked 22, and surrendered 10 long balls. I’m the least optimistic about him and he’s a 20 year old lefty starter putting up decent numbers in A ball. I think that says more about the deal than it does Garrison. 

This is really an awesome deal, imo. One thing to remember is that the Padres do probably lose a draft pick or two because of this.

Over at Brewerfan.net, they have a lengthy thread on the deal. Anthony, at the great Friar Watch, has already taken an in-depth look at the trade. The folks at Gaslamp Ball and Ducksnorts have some thoughts on it, as well. Threads on the UT and espn boards if you wanna go there … Over at SD Spotlight, Bo Vandy offers some strong criticism of Towers and the deal. Needless to say, I  disagree pretty wholeheartedly.

Spin city

July 19, 2007 in media, prospects, San Diego Padres with 0 Comments

I like blogs because of the unbiased coverage. Bloggers, for the most part, don’t come in contact with the people they write about. They don’t have to worry about getting access. They don’t have a job to protect. They don’t have to paint a rose colored picture all the time. If there’s anything that is more annoying (to me, of course) than those who are eternally pessimistic about the Padres, its those who are always optimistic. I’d rather read people who tell it like it is, or at least try to. Many times, with the mainstream media, that is not what you get. There are too many other factors (keeping a job, getting player/front office access, etc) that go into making an article.

Anyway, this is why I prefer blogs over mainstream outlets like Padres.com, the UT, the NC Times, etc. And now let’s take a look at a couple of examples. The other day, Tom Krasovic wrote an article entitled “Padres shell out bucks for draft picks”. He starts the article out by saying:

“The Padres have guaranteed a franchise-record $6.9 million to draftees this year and are still negotiating with three players chosen among the top 10 rounds. “

Of course, that total includes the money dished out to draft and follows Matt Latos and Jeremy McBryde. Neither of those players were part of this years draft and I don’t really know why you’d include them in money spent toward this years draftees. To do some fact checking, I looked at the Padres draft page on Baseball America. So far, by my count, they’ve signed 14 players at a total of $5,573,500 from 07 draft.

Now, if you go back to an article like this, you can find stuff like this:

“General Manager Kevin Towers has said the Padres will plow a franchise-record $10 million into draft picks this year. “

I guess you could argue whether that 10 million includes Latos or not. I would argue no, but whatever the case may be, the Padres haven’t even approached that total yet. They’ve spent about 5.6 mill on pick this year and $1.4M on Latos and McBryde. If you take out $1.26M for Schmidt and put in, oh say, $3M tops (?) for Rick Porcello (the player I REALLY wish the Padres took) that makes their total spent this year $7,313,500. They would still have room to sign some remaining draft picks and be under the $10M budget.

I guess my point here is that we didn’t need an article praising the Padres for spending money in this case. They said they were going to spend more and so far they haven’t. We’ll see what the total is when it’s all wrapped up, but I think the article is both premature and misleading.

Then today, here’s another article basically turning Geoff Blum into David Ortiz. Let’s look at some quotes:

“In 2005, Blum’s hot bat in May helped the Padres to the winningest month in franchise history. ”

“Down the stretch in 2006, Blum’s play at short in the absence of the injured Greene was instrumental in the club’s second straight title. “

In 2005, Geoff Blum hit .294/.362/.431 in May (in 58 PA). Here’s how he did in other months:

April: 64 PA  .271/.328/.458
June: 82 PA  .176/.256/.189
July: 48 PA  .250/.375/.525
August: 67 PA  .206/.254/.286
Sept: 32 PA  .188/.188/.250

That all adds up to .229/.296/.345. That’s not very good. Of course, if you just look at May, then he did do a fine job. In 2006, he hit .283/.323/.417 in August (65 PA) and .239/.273/.359 in Sept/Oct (100 PA). While playing shortstop (176 PA), he hit .233/.269/.344. Overall…. .254/.293/.366. Really, he was not very good at all. I mean, for a back up, and when you account for the fact that he played short (and played it pretty well), I guess he was serviceable. But, “instrumental in the club’s second straight title”? Come on.

For all the clutch stuff that gets thrown Blum’s way, you’d at least think it was somewhat true. Funny thing, it really isn’t. By Fangraphs’ Clutchinesss measure, which is WPA – (OPS wins * pLI) — (which basically tries to isolate any actual clutch performance that player may have had) – Blum has had these tallies:

05: -.27
06: -.46
07: -.19

Each year Blum has actually been worse in clutch situations than what his normal hitting stats would suggest. If you cherry pick a few nice examples though, I’m sure you could anoint him captain clutch. With all of this, I guess I got a few things of off my chest. Geoff Blum still stinks, I’m a little disappointed with the Padres draft (still), and I prefer blogs over mainstream sites (by 100 times) because I think bloggers try to call is as they see it. Now, of course, they may not always see it correctly; but at least there are no hidden agendas.

Gomez on Kulbacki and Cumberland

July 4, 2007 in prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting with 1 Comment

Carlos Gomez has another article up analyzing some of this years draft picks. Carlos wasn’t too impressed with the Schmidt pick, but he liked these two picks a lot more! Here he is:

“Kulbacki’s approach and hand/bat position at footplant remind me of Rafael Palmeiro. Kulbacki has very good swing mechanics. He does a nice job of loading his hands and hips and then exploding through the ball. His swing has very little noise and it looks like he’ll be able to consistently make good contact. He’s another hitter who stays behind the ball very well. I like this pick here at 40. Good power potential.”

Yea, sounds pretty good. And on Cumberland:

“Simple swing, very little noise, good swing plane, a slight load of his hands, carries his hips forward well into footplant. In short, I like it quite a bit. Where Cumberland gets into trouble (and you see it in his game swings) is when he gets “pushy” with the hands instead of rotating his hips and his hands around a fixed axis of rotation. Because Cumberland’s main asset is his speed, my guess is that Cumberland has been taught to hit the ball on the ground and use his speed. “

I’ve thought about this with someone like Ichiro. People always talk about how he can hit home runs if he wants to or whatever. And I always wonder why he doesn’t try to do it. He always seems to be running out of the box, certainly in an even more exaggerated fashion than Cumberland. Ichiro is pretty successful doing his thing, but he’s a special guy. I wouldn’t think you would want to teach many players that type of approach (or even the approach that Gomez is describing), especially if they have some power potential (which it appears Cumberland does). I guess it depends on what the Padres developmental guys (and organization as a whole) want to do with Cumberland.

More on Nick Schmidt

June 25, 2007 in prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting with 0 Comments

When the Padres initially made this selection, I didn’t really like it. But that was mostly based upon the fact that Schmidt’s numbers, for a so called polished college hurler, weren’t overly impressive. Now, I’ll be the first to admit that unadjusted college numbers (although I did try to compare them to the rest of the Arkansas staff) are not the end-all-be-all when evaluating draft picks. Not even close.

But now Carlos Gomez – stathead, former pitcher, mechanics guru – comes by and criticizes Schmidt as well. And this is more from a scouting perspective. Here’s Gomez:

Schmidt has a painfully slow tempo, an abrupt finish and just takes forever to go through his delivery. In short, he’s a “tall and fall” guy all the way.

Did you catch how quickly Schmidt stops his arm after release? He slams on the brakes pretty quick… Schmidt? No thanks

Check out the link for video and more analysis. I also posted the link on the espn board where Gomez himself was nice enough to stop by and answer some questions. In short, I didn’t like the Schmidt pick yesterday and I like it even less today.

Padres to call up Chase Headley

June 15, 2007 in prospects, San Diego Padres with 0 Comments

It looks like the Padres are going to call up top 3b prospect Chase Headley tomorrow. We’ll see what materializes with Kouzmanoff and the DL, but it would seem as if Headley will get some extended playing time here.  

In AA San Antonio he was tearing the cover off the ball to the tune of .357/.433/.648. His BABiP is .422 explaining some of that high average. But he’s still walking in 13% of his PA’s and carrying a robust .291 ISO.

That being said, it does strike me as somewhat of a strange move. Branyan is the perfect guy to fill in for a week or two without having to worry about the development of Headley. It seems as if there is a disconnect between the front office and Bud Black when it comes to Branyan. If he’s not going to play — because Black apparently doesn’t like him — he really shouldn’t be on the team. Nonetheless, Headley gets an early chance to show his stuff. Perhaps, he’ll be the perfect spark plug for the offense and start at 3b the rest of the way out. Leaving Kouz to hold down left? And what about Russ? Free Russell Branyan once again!!!!

We may be getting a little ahead of ourselves, though….

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