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San Diego Padres Sign Orlando Hudson

December 17, 2010 in contracts, roster moves, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

Last year, I wrote that the San Diego Padres could have improved their off-season by signing Orlando Hudson. This year, they actually did so.  After inking Orlando Hudson to a 2-year $11.5MM contract, the Padres have finally found themselves a major league caliber second baseman.

Last season, Hudson was worth 3.1 fWAR, hitting at almost exactly a league average level, while playing quality defense at a middle infield position.

His 2010 season was not a huge deviation from his career numbers which suggest Hudson has been an average hitter and average fielder, and has thus contributed a lot of value to his teams as a second-baseman.

Prior to singing Hudson, the Padres did not have a second baseman (assuming you did not think Eric Patterson was the solution) on the roster, which makes Hudson’s contributions even more meaningful.

As for the value of the deal, Dave Cameron sums it up nicely:

With a going rate of something in the neighborhood of $5 million per win this winter, Hudson would only have to generate +1.1 WAR in 2011 to justify his salary from a market-rate perspective. For comparison, Aaron Hill‘s .291 wOBA and slightly above-average defense last year was worth +1.1 WAR as a full time second baseman. There is a lot of room for Hudson to regress from his 2010 performance and still be a relative bargain, given the prices free agents have been signing for to date.

Signing Hudson has very little downside, and a good amount of upside.  He fills a glaring need for the Padres, at a value rate.

Joaquin Benoit will receive $16.5MM over the next three seasons for the Tigers, and he is a reliever who never been worth more than 2.0 fWAR in his career.  Hudson has exceeded 2.0 fWAR in all but one season starting in 2004.  Who would you rather have?

PTBNL: Eric Patterson

December 16, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, San Diego Padres, trades with Comments Off

The San Diego Padres announced today that Eric Patterson will be coming to the club as the player to be named later in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.

Patterson, who is 27 years old has bounced around quite a bit the past few seasons.  He was drafted by the Chicago Cubs in 2004, and reached the majors in 2007.  Patterson was traded to the Oakland Athletics in 2008 as a part of the Rich Harden deal.  Oakland dealt him to Boston last season.

For his career, Patterson has displayed little power (0.353 SLG) and on-base skills (0.299 OBP).  Defensively, he has played second base, and all of the outfield positions, albeit at a below average level at every position (at least according to UZR).

As a major league player, Patterson has been pretty bad, but his minor league record is very solid.

In over 2,500 minor league plate appearances, Patterson has an 0.845 OPS.  1550 of those plate appearances have come in AAA, where Patterson has a 0.363 OBP, and a 0.487 SLG.  Patterson has also displayed good speed, stealing 178 bases in the minor leagues, including a 2009 campaign where he had 43 SB compared to only 6 CS.

In the minors, Patterson played mostly second-base, and rated above average according to total zone (which is probably surprising to Red Sox fans).

For the Padres, Patterson is a nice throw-in to the Gonzalez deal.  The team does not have a second baseman currently on the roster, and Patterson’s minor league track record indicates he might still be a useful major leaguer given the chance (he only has 471 major league plate appearances).

Patterson’s ability to play multiple positions could allow him to fill a utility role on the club, and given the team’s complete lack of depth at the middle infield positions, Patterson may very well find himself starting on the 2011 team.

Padres Trade For Ryan Ludwick

July 31, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

In a somewhat surprising move, the San Diego Padres acquired Ryan Ludwick from the St. Louis Cardinals as part of a three-team deal that also saw Jake Westbrook leave Cleveland for St. Louis.

Personally, its a deal I love.

Ludwick is a solid bat who instantly becomes the Padres second best hitter.  His 0.354 wOBA is solidly above average, as he gets on base at a good clip (0.343 OBP), and hits with a decent amount of power (0.484 SLG).

For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Ludwick to improve his offensive numbers slightly, but a move to Petco Park will probably dampen his unadjusted statistics.

What people might not realize about Ludwick is he is actually a pretty solid fielder.  For his career, Ludwick’s UZR/150 in the outfield is 7.6 runs above average.  Already this season, UZR has him at a 8.8 runs above average.  A big part of the Padres success this season has been the strength of their fielding, and adding Ludwick should not change that.

Ludwick will likely take some playing time away from the likes of Will Venable and Chris Denorfia.  That’s fine.  Ludwick is an obvious upgrade, worth about an extra win over the remainder of the season.

In return for Ludwick, the Padres gave up minor league pitchers Nick Greenwood, who according to Keith Law: “shows no projection beyond middle reliever right now,” and Corey Kluber.  Kluber leads the Texas League in strikeouts, but is already 24 years old, still in AA, and projects as a back-end of the rotation starter at best.

Salary-wise, Ludwick is being paid $5.45MM this year, and his salary is likely to increase to around $8MM-$9MM next season in arbitration, a level where there is still some surplus value.

In return for two non-impact prospects, the Padres acquired a year and a half of Ryan Ludwick.  He further improves the club’s playoff chances both this year and next year, giving the team some added pop without weakening the defense.  This is the exact type of trade contending teams with room to add payroll should be making.

BRIEF Miguel Tejada Analysis

July 29, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

Miguel Tejada is not a good player anymore.  He doesn’t hit that well, and he doesn’t field that well.  But the San Diego Padres did not give up much to get him, as Wynn Pelzer looks unlikely to become anything more than a middle reliever.

Tejada provides some depth in the infield, and looks to be a slight marginal upgrade.  But hey, when you’re in the playoff hunt in late July, a slight marginal upgrade could make the difference in the end.

Losing Chad Huffman Is No Big Deal

April 9, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

In order to clear a roster spot for Matt Stairs, the San Diego Padres had to drop a player from the 40-man roster. The odd-man out was outfielder Chad Huffman.  Although the Padres were hoping Huffman would go unclaimed, the New York Yankees stepped in and claimed him.

On his blog, Paul DePodesta wrote:

We lost the player. And, he’s a pretty good one. Chad was a 2nd round pick in 2006 out of TCU and has been a successful minor league hitter throughout his pro career, posting an OPS over .800 in each season. While crushing lefties early in his career, Chad had his most successful year yet against RHP during his first season in AAA in 2009. He always controlled the strike zone and also hit for some power – a combination we like. We think he’ll be a good Major League hitter.

Huffman might turn out to be a decent major league hitter, but he is unlikely to become a good major league player.  As Rob Neyer wrote: “Without good speed or defense, it will be an upset if he’s ever more than a fifth outfielder.”

I might also add that while Huffman’s bat is okay, it is nothing special.  As a 24 year old, he had a 830 OPS in AAA.  For a corner outfielder who plays mediocre defense, those batting stats would barely cut it in the majors, let alone AAA.  At 24 and not yet in the major leagues, he can hardly be considered a young prospect.

That said, Matt Stairs is nothing special either.  He gives the Padres a bit of lefty power off the bench, but has almost no defensive value.  He is essentially just a pinch hitter/interleague DH/”clubhouse presence.”

Should the Padres have kept Huffman rather than Stairs?  Maybe.  But I’m somewhat indifferent.  Huffman is unlikely to become a quality major league player.  Losing players like Huffman are no big deal.  He projects as a replacement level player, and by definition, replacement level players are freely available talent.

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