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Jason Bartlett and the age of Twitter

December 11, 2010 in Myron Logan, rumors, San Diego Padres, trades with 10 Comments

The San Diego Padres have traded for Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett. The deal is official, pending physicals. The deal should be completed soon. The trade is off. For now.

Interestingly, the far less significant (pending) deal for Jason Bartlett is shaping up much the same way the Adrian Gonzalez trade did. On – On, sorta – Off, maybe – Probably on. We’ll see how it concludes.

Maybe it just happens that both of these trades, for whatever reasons, were particularly strange in their development and completion. Or maybe writers are getting a little twitter-happy, jumping the gun and trying to be the first to report any potential breaking news.

I don’t know. It certainly is a bit frustrating for anyone trying to report on the Padres. The latest report I have seen in this one, saying the trade will likely still go through, but that the Rays are re-evaluating one of the pitchers included in the deal after his physical.

The Padres are having an interesting off-season, hovering somewhere around a complete rebuild and fielding a somewhat competitive team while still building for the future. Bartlett is a nice player, an average-ish player at short who had a breakout year in 2009 surrounded by mostly mediocrity.

We’ll have more on the trade, if and when it becomes official. For now, I don’t want to fall into the trap of evaluating something that never happens.

Why The San Diego Padres Should Trade Heath Bell

March 25, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, rumors, San Diego Padres with 8 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

Heath Bell is a very good reliever.  Last season he threw nearly 70 innings and struck out 79 batters.  His ERA of 2.71 was not a function of Petco Park.  His 2.42 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, and 2.25 tERA are all evidence that Bell was not just lucky last season.  This season, he projects to be just as good.

That said, the San Diego Padres should still trade Heath Bell.  As good as he is, Bell is a reliever.  Relievers do not add much value relative to full time position players and starters.

According to Fangraphs WAR, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jonathan Broxton was the most valuable reliever in the major leagues last season.  He accumulated 2.9 WAR.  In 2008, Mariano Rivera was the league’s most valuable reliever.  His WAR: 3.1.

To put this into perspective, 49 starters had a higher WAR than Broxton in 2009.  Zach Greinke, the major league leader in WAR for pitchers, was at 9.4 — over three times Broxton’s WAR in 2009.  As for position players, 76 players were more valuable than Jonathan Broxton in 2009.  And this is in comparison to the most valuable reliever in baseball.

That said, a high quality reliever can be very useful for a good team that plays in a lot of high leverage situations.  Typically when I refer to a high leverage situation, I am talking about an important moment in a particular game.  In this case however, I am referring to situations that can impact whether or not a team will make the playoffs.

For teams on the playoff bubble, winning close games is immensely important.  Just a game or two can be the difference between a playoff birth and a shot at the world series, and a disappointing season.  The value of high quality relievers to this type of team almost certainly exceeds the baseline WAR of that player.

The Padres are not such a team.  Like it or not, the Padres are not yet ready to compete for a playoff spot. Sure the team has a few nice pieces, but it is at least two years away from being truly competitive.

In itself, not being competitive this year (or even next year) is not good enough reason to justify trading Heath Bell.  The real issue is that Bell’s age and contract situation does not make him a great fit for the team two or three years down the road.

Bell is 32 years old.  His fastball was 3 MPH slower in 2009 than in 2007, and his slider was 4 MPH slower than in 2007.  As Bell continues to age, he is likely to continue to lose velocity.  He may still be an effective pitcher, but he is unlikely to be as effective.

Meanwhile, as Bell continues to age, his salary is likely to increase.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts Bell currently has a touch over four years of service time.  This season, his second eligible for arbitration, he agreed to a $4MM contract.  He will be eligible for arbitration once again following the 2010 season, and then eligible for free agency following the 2011 season.

Closers are well compensated by both the arbitration and free agent process.  Teams still seem willing to pay a premium for saves, and arbiters seem just as willing to provide large rewards for proven closers.  Typically, a player is expected to earn approximately 80% of their free agent value in their final year of arbitration. Although I don’t have the stats to back it up, I would guess that closers receive even greater percentage.

Essentially, Heath Bell is only cheap for the Padres through this season.  In 2011, he will get paid between 80% and 100% of his full value, and after that, he becomes a free agent.  Because the Padres are not expected to compete this season (and possibly not next), Bell does not provide as much value to the Padres as he would a better team.

Meanwhile, the Padres do have a number of possible replacements for Bell.  Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson were both excellent last season, each striking out over ten batters per nine innings.  Promising arms like Joe Thatcher, Adam Russel, and Ryan Webb may step up and prove to be late inning relievers as well.  Replacing Bell’s production is not a huge concern.

Because the Padres are not expected to be good while Bell is both good and cheap, trading him makes a lot of sense.  This is especially true because losing Bell will not be as damaging from an on-field perspective as most fans believe.  The Padres do not necessarily need to trade Heath Bell today.  The team should trade him at the moment they believe they can get the greatest return (taking into account possible fan backlash and decreased ticket revenue).  But trading Bell this season is something that should be done.

HotStove.com: How Likely Are The San Diego Padres to Trade Adrian Gonzalez

March 3, 2010 in Adrian Gonzalez, Daniel Gettinger, links, roster moves, rumors, San Diego Padres, trades with 15 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

Question of the week: Spring Training has barely begun, and already the Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors are in full swing. What are the odds that Gonzalez makes it through the entire 2010 season as a member of the Padres?

My response:

The San Diego Padres are very likely to trade Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a good player, paid like a mediocre player, and not at all overrated. Which is exactly why the Padres should trade him. As he is in the prime of his career, and his contract only runs through 2011, Gonzalez provides optimal value to a team built to compete over the next two seasons. The Padres are not such a team. They are most likely to compete from 2011-20??. Gonzalez will fetch a package of good, young players. Trading him will greatly accelerate the rebuilding process.

If this sounds familiar, its because it is.  I copied and pasted from an article I wrote last May!

Jbox from Gaslamp Ball also offered his thoughts.

Coco Crisp Would be a Great Signing

December 19, 2009 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, rumors, San Diego Padres with 10 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

There are some rumblings that the Padres are talking with Coco Crisp about a one-year deal worth between $3MM and $4MM.

This just makes too much sense.  Crisp is a decent player, appears to want to play for the Padres, would come cheap and be signed for only one year, and significantly upgrades the Padres’ outfield.

Last year Crisp missed the bulk of the season with a torn Labrum.  However, in just 49 games he amassed a WAR of 1.2.  Consistent with his career numbers, Crisp was about average offensively, but played good defense at a premium position (CF).

Although it is always difficult to project how a player will return from injury, there are no indications that Crisp will have any serious issues.  Recovery from Labrum surgery typically takes between 4 and 6 months. Crisp had his surgery in June, so there is no reason to think he will not be at full strength come opening day.

Bill James forecasts Crisp to be a little above average with the bat.  CHONE and Fangraph’s fans projections think Crisp will be a little below average.  His fielding, which with the exception of a bizarrely poor 2008 season has always been exceptional, should at least be above average.

Jeff Zimmerman, using UZR and CHONE projections, projects Crisp to be a 1.5 WAR player in 2010.  The fans have Crisp at 2.2 WAR, and James seems to have Crisp somewhere around 2.5 WAR.

Lets project Crisp at 2.0 WAR, with a minimal level of play of 1.0 WAR.

Using a $4.4MM per win conversion, Crisp appears to be worth no less than $4.4MM.  In expectation, he is worth $8.8MM.  Given the rumored price-tag of $3MM-$4MM, Crisp will almost certainly provide surplus value to the club.

His signing also addresses a need for the Padres.  Neither Tony Gwynn Jr. nor Will Venable are projected to hit or field as well as Crisp in 2010.  Crisp provides a bit of an upgrade over either of the current two CF options.

A Crisp signing also has the added benefit of providing the Padres with an answer for filling the outfield holes that will open when they trade Adrian Gonzalez and/or Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Gwynn or Venable can slide over to RF where they will team with Crisp to form a very solid defensive outfield.  The fourth outfielder still stands to play a significant amount.

Given that at the very least Kouzmanoff or Adrian will be traded, the Padres do not have much outfield depth for 2010.  Signing Crisp addresses that need, but also provides the club with a very solid player who will almost certainly provide value in excess of his salary.  A one-year deal at such a low price-point is nearly risk free, and is exactly the type of signing a team in transition, like the Padres, should be making.

Lewis and Frandsen for Kouz? Don’t Believe It For a Second

December 10, 2009 in Daniel Gettinger, Kevin Kouzmanoff, roster moves, rumors, San Diego Padres with 8 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

Kevin Kouzmanoff trade rumors have dominated the Padres related rumors coming out of the winter meetings.  Much of the chatter has been centered around a possible Giants deal, and a potential Twins deal.

Jason Stark reported that the Padres offered Kouzmanoff to the Giants for outfielder Fred Lewis and second base/utility guy Kevin Frandsen.  Stark also reported that the Padres have requested pitcher Glen Perkins and some second player in return for Kouz.

Neither deal strikes me as something the Padres should seriously consider.

Kevin Kouzmanoff has been an extremely consistent (at least year-by-year) player for the Padres the past three seaons, compiling WARs of 2.6, 2.7, and 2.7 respectively.  He is essentially a league average third baseman.  This year, following three seasons in which he got paid the minimum salary, he is eligible for arbitration, and should earn something around $5M, which assuming he will continue to play like he always has, would result in an expected surplus value of about $7M.

Fred Lewis is a speedy outfielder with little power, but an above average glove at a corner position.  He has not played much in center, but is probably between average and a bit below average there.

In 2008, Lewis had a decent 2.3 WAR season, but last year (albeit with less at bats) only posted 0.9 WAR. Lewis turned 29 today, so he cannot be described as a youngster.  That 2008 season may have been a career-year for him.  Lets split the difference between his 2008 and 2009 season and call him a 1.6 WAR player going forward.

Frandsen is pretty terrible.  He has no power, and lacks the on-base skills to make up for it.  He can play a lot of positions, but there is not sufficient evidence to claim that he is a great fielder.  Frandsen is essentially a replacement level utility player.  Lets be generous and say he can put up 0.5 WAR in 2010.

Combined, Lewis and Frandsen equate to an expected 2.1 WAR, trailing Kouzmanoff’s 2.6 WAR.  Their advantage over Kouzmanoff is they will only get paid around $1M between them this year, and are under team control for a few more seasons.  Combined, if you accept the assumptions I have already laid out, they will provide around $8.5M in excess value in 2010, which exceeds Kouzmanoff’s expected surplus value of $7M.

Of course, they take up two roster spots, while Kouz only takes up one, which more than cancels out the $1.5M difference in surplus value.  In addition, neither player is very good; certainly not as good as Kouzmanoff.  Neither Lewis nor Frandsen are players the team can realistically build around, making their acquisition somewhat pointless.

The proposed Twins trade makes a bit more sense, in that it suggests the Padres would be acquiring a starting pitcher.  Again though, the issue is that the player in question-Glen Perkins-is not good.

Perkins has been a 1 WAR player the past two seasons, and does not project to improve much.  He has decent control, but strikes almost nobody out (only about 4.4 K/9).  He is no better (and quite possibly worse) than guys like Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, and Sean Gallagher.

Unless the mystery “second man” in the deal is someone significant, this trade makes less sense than the Giants deal.

The Padres need to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff.  It is silly to have Chase Headley masquerade as a corner-outfielder, when he is clearly a third baseman.  But, taking back a bag of garbage just to make room for him at third does nothing to improve the team.

That said a package of Lewis and a mid-level prospect or two (the type of players who have a chance of playing at a Kouzmanoff level in a few years) might be enough to get a deal done.

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