Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo

After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help but think Erubiel Durazo.

At first, you might think that comparing a highly-touted first base prospect to Erubiel Durazo is my way of saying that I’m not overly high on Alonso, but that isn’t necessarily true. Upon reaching the majors at age 25, Durazo raked, and he didn’t stop until his major league career was over seven years later.

Note Durazo’s debut 1999 and Alonso’s 2011 in Cincinnati:

Pretty similar starts, though I certainly don’t mean to imply that I’m comparing these two players based on such a small amount of performance data. As mentioned, Alonso’s swing and movements simply remind me of Durazo, and it conveniently fits the narrative that the numbers are very similar.

Physically, they are similar too. Durazo is listed at 6’3’’, 240 on Baseball-Reference. Alonso: 6’2’’, 240. Both left-handed hitters. Durazo ended up hitting .281/.381/.487 in his major league career, split between Arizona and Oakland. Alonso has posted inferior numbers so far in his career (.292/.370/.466) – and that’s in the minor leagues.

Durazo played in Mexico prior to the majors and only spent part of one season in the minors before debuting in Arizona, so we can’t really compare minor league stats. He hit .404/.489/.703 that year in Double-A and Triple-A.

In the field, Durazo provided limited defensive value at first (he was traded to Oakland and became a DH) and he wasn’t particularly fast or athletic. The scouting reports on Alonso are similar. He’s not out there for his defense or base running.

Scouting or performance

Let’s face it, Alonso’s scouting reputation far exceeds his actual performance thus far. Based on the numbers, Clay Davenport* projects Alonso as a .260/.335/.400 hitter in his prime. That isn’t bad, especially in Petco, but it isn’t really what we are expecting out of the Padres new first basemen.

*Davenport adjusts raw minor league statistics for league, age, park effects, and various other factors to get a better estimate of the player’s major league potential.

Yonder Alonso = Adrian Gonzalez

Finishing where we started, PECOTA currently lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso’s number one comparable player. Number two: Jeff Clement.

Interestingly enough, there might be something to the Alonso-Gonzalez comp. Though Gonzalez was always young(er) for his league, both players put up underwhelming minor league statistics (but were highly-rated amongst scouts). Gonzalez, of course, blossomed into the player we had the pleasure of watching in San Diego for five seasons.

Then again, there is probably something to the Alonso-Clement comp, too.

As you know, there’s a large degree of uncertainty in player evaluation, especially prospects. Here’s hoping Alonso turns out more like Gonzalez than Clement. But I’ll settle for Durazo.

Right hander Simon Castro was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. He was quite raw, obviously, and didn’t really burst onto the big time prospect scene until after his 2009 campaign at Single-A Fort Wayne.

Castro pitched 140 and a third innings that year, posting a 3.33 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and .6 HR/9. Those are some pretty solid numbers, especially for a 21-year-old who had yet to really put it all together previously. After the impressive season, Castro ranked as the 57th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, the #2 Padres prospect by Kevin Goldstein, and the #2 Padres prospect by John Sickels.

Sickels called Castro an “excellent arm with improving command” and Goldstein said that “he will be an above-average major-league starter, with some scouts projecting him as high as a No. 2.”

in 2010, Castro jumped up to Double-A San Antonio and continued to perform. He again pitched 140 innings (10 and a third in Triple-A Portland), with a 3.28 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and .6 HR/9. The drop in strikeouts was a bit alarming, but overall the 6-5 right hander had a more-than-respectable year in his first taste of Double-A.

The prospectors didn’t waver. Baseball America rated him as the 58th best MLB prospect while Kevin Goldstein and John Sickels both kept him at #2 overall in the Padres system.

Last season Castro started out in Triple-A Tucson and lasted only six starts, posting an ERA over 10 and ugly peripherals. He was sent back down to Double-A San Antonio where he would regain some of his form. His ERA was 4.33, but as we mentioned in the Quentin trade analysis, his peripherals looked largely the same:

One could argue pretty easily that he was actually a little better the second time around in Double-A, as his strikeout rate stayed virtually the same and his walk rate dropped quite a bit. His strikeout-to-walk ratio jumped from 2.97 in 2010 to 4.56 in 2011.

Of course, there are some legitimate reasons to be concerned with Castro’s 2011 year. For one, he struggled mightily again in Triple-A, giving him a 9.50 ERA, 1.5 HR/9, and nearly one walk for every strikeout in 36 career innings. It’s a small sample, sure, but it is ugly performance. Further, he repeated Double-A and while his peripherals were a little better, it’s not as if he dominated.

After 2011, though, would you expect him to completely drop off the prospect radar? That’s kind of what happened. Baseball America didn’t list Castro in its Padres top 10, Kevin Goldstein rated him #20 in the system, and John Sickels didn’t even rank him in his top 27.

Now, prospect lists are certainly fluid, and Castro didn’t do much to build on his 2010 campaign. Further, the Padres continued to add minor league talent from the draft and trades, helping push Castro’s freefall – not to mention, other guys establishing themselves.

Still, if you’re trying to look at the whole picture, it’s hard to believe that Castro should have fallen this far based on his ‘11 performance. If he was a top three prospect prior to 2011, there’s no way he’s a top 20-30 prospect after. That’s only my opinion, of course, and the prospect experts certainly study these guys closer than I do and have a lot of scout/front office contacts.

The general point, though, is not about prospect lists. Instead, the concern is over what Castro could still become. We’ve talked a lot recently about the Padres depth in the minor leagues. Castro was kind of a guy who embodied that depth. Formerly a highly-regarded prospect, there he was sitting way down — all but forgotten — on our organization depth chart.

Castro is gone now and while we received Carlos Quentin for him (and Hernandez), at this point it’s not clear that the acquisition was worth the potential cost.

The risk that is the HS pitcher

Before getting into Whitson, specifically, let’s talk about high school pitchers in general. The general consensus is that prep pitchers have the most risk of any type of draft prospect (HS pitchers, HS bat, college pitchers, college bat). Take a look at this chart, created by Sky Andrecheck at Baseball Analysts, and based off his draft WAR model:

The chart says that  high school pitchers, selected toward the top of the draft, have about a 30% chance of at least reaching the majors and contributing 1 WAR through their career. You can see that that figure is lower than the other three types of players, and the trend continues as you scan down the chart and raise expectations. This chart shows us that high school pitchers are least likely to make any impact at the major league level, and that their ceilings are actually *lower* – on average — than their college and position player counterparts.

In other words, high school pitchers are dangerous. Importantly, however, the data suggest that the risk might not be worth the reward, as they don’t offer a higher upside either.

Here are all high school pitchers selected in the top 15 picks, from 1999 through 2006:

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the data.

You’ve got a number of hits (Beckett, Greinke, Kazmir, Kershaw) and a bunch of misses. You may notice another trend, too. There were 10 HS pitchers taken in the first 15 picks between the 1999 and 2000 drafts. From 2001 through 2006, however, there were only 11 taken. It appears that teams were getting a little more selective with prep arms, as they better realized the risk.

Karsten Whitson is not Mark Phillips

One of the problems with this type of analysis is that we are lumping players together. Sure, “high school pitchers” is a convenient enough category – and it obviously makes a good deal of sense – but we have to recognize that all high school pitchers are not the same, and frankly many of them are not even similar, taking into account size, stuff, command, make-up, etc. .

Perhaps the Padres have selected their Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, or Jake Peavy here. Maybe they haven’t. It’s close to impossible to tell, especially when you don’t have access to the scouting reports and first hand knowledge that the Padres and some draft experts do.

That said, that is not going to stop us from discussing Whitson, and trying to form some type of opinion on his future in the Padres organization.

Basic facts

Karsten Whitson, RHP
Chipley HS, FLA
6-4, 190
Commitment: Florida
Stats: 7-3, 123 strikeouts, 55 innings (senior season)

Scouting Report

Drawing off the excellent scouting report available at PNR Scouting, Whitson offers the following pitches:

Fastball – Sits in low-90s, can reach 94-95. Good movement. Can add velocity with improved strength/altering mechanics. Only issue is control.

Slider – Low-80s power slider. Plus pitch. Needs to work on control/command.

Change-up – Low-80s. Work in progress, but has potential to be solid offering.

Here’s a good report on his mechanics, from Amazin’ Avenue:

Issue number two concerns his mechanics. If you watch him from the side, pay attention to how he lands on his left leg. Ideally, the pitcher lands on it softly, with the knee bent a little less than 90 degrees. In Whitson’s case, he’s landing stiffly, immediately pushing up with his leg as he lands. What’s the big deal? It implies three issues, none of which are huge deals for Whitson. First, it can impair a pitcher’s control, due to the leg forcing his body away from his momentum at the moment of release. Whitson’s command is pretty good as is (but maybe it can be better). Second, a great stride shouldn’t allow you to land anything but softly. It may be that Whitson can get a little more power from his stride, either adding velocity to his fastball or taking a little stress off his shoulder. And third, Whitson’s follow-through is a little short, and I’m pretty sure the stiff leg is the reason. A good follow-through can act almost like an energy sink, allowing the pitcher’s arm to decelerate as safely as possible. If cut prematurely, it can shock the pitcher’s shoulder a second time, adding recoil to the delivery. Lengthening Whitson’s stride just a little might solve all three potential problems.

And a couple of videos of Whitson:

The consensus opinion

Here’s a chart showing where various draft experts rank Whitson:

Overall, Whitson is obviously a highly regarded pitching prospect. The questions regarding his development are questions that follow most any young pitching prospect. Can he handle 200 innings down the road? Can he add a few MPH with improved mechanics and/or strength and conditioning? Can he refine his mechanics and avoid injury? Can he improve his command/control?

The Padres obviously believe that he has a good chance to develop into a solid pitcher, as they spent a high pick on him and will likely have to pony up above-slot dollars to sign him away from his Florida commitment. We’ll be rooting for him. 

Developing home grown talent is vital because a players first six years are spent under team control, at a tremendously discounted rate. Let us take, for example, an average player and estimate how much surplus value he’ll accrue in his first six years under team-control:

To clarify, we have an average (2 WAR) player. His Free Agent salary is estimated by multiplying his WAR by the marginal value of a win (~$4.5M in 2012 and escalating $.5M each year). His actual salary is estimated by near-minimum totals for his first three years, and then using the 40%-60%-80% scale, which models how much arbitration-eligible players are paid, when compared to their FA value.

So, if a team can draft and develop an average player, not at all a superstar, it is looking at $40+ million in surplus value over the players first six years – in other words, a tremendous asset to the organization. This is a player that will provide three years of average play for peanuts, and then another three years of average play at 60% of his market value. Overall, this club gets $69 million worth of production for $25.3 million. Add in a signing bonus, minor league salaries, and some developmental fees, and you’re still looking at a great value.

If a team can draft a star player like Evan Longoria, well, it is that much better off. Longoria has already netted the Rays some $50+ million in surplus value in his first two seasons. The Rays went on to sign Longoria to an extension that could be worth $44 million over nine years. They have their cornerstone player locked up at a very reasonable price, thanks to the draft and MLB’s salary dynamics.

Dollars and sense

The draft might sound perfect for its efforts in leveling the playing field between big market and small market franchises. That is its intent, but there is at least one small problem. There is no slot-requirement, and some players that may be top talents are bypassed by small market teams because of signability issues – teams are concerned that, after drafting the player, they won’t be able to sign him to a deal.

A good example is the 2007 draft. Back in the infancy of this blog, as Rick Porcello continued to go unselected (due to aforementioned $ concerns, not talent) , I was hoping the Padres would pick him at #23. The Padres passed, taking Nick Schmidt, who signed at estimated slot money — $1.26 million. Porcello fell into the hands of the Tigers five picks later, who signed for $3.58 million — $2.4 million above slot-recommendation.

Of course, I understood that the Padres were unlikely to take Porcello. After all, they weren’t the only team that passed on him, and they didn’t exactly have that kind of money to throw at a prep pitcher – even, a very good one. However, my theory went that, yes, they would be spending a few million dollars more than desired, but the potential value Porcello could provide later on would be well worth it.

Porcello debuted with the Tigers last year and, conveniently for this article, delivered a league-average season (1.9 WAR). He was worth approximately $8 million in surplus value. He has struggled a bit this season, but his peripheral numbers actually look fine (sans the K-rate), and the Tigers have a solid pitcher locked up under team-control.

It doesn’t work like that every time, kid

The draft is an inherently risky process. Trying to evaluate young players and project what they will become in four or five years is both art and science – and a lot of headaches. Sure, there’s a correlation between draft slot and WAR, but it isn’t a great one. There are no-brainers (A-Rod, Longoria, Strasburg), but there are also countless busts (ie, no-brainers that didn’t work out). The obligatory Matt Bush mentioned comes now.

The Padres may very well have thrown $3.6 million Rich Porcello’s way, if they knew exactly how he was going to develop. But, perhaps their analysis concluded that there was, maybe, a 40% or 50% chance that he wouldn’t give them any MLB value. In the end, maybe he was too risky. Nobody wants $3.6 million to go to waste, especially when there are plenty of other attractive options to choose from.

The draft is critical for all teams. But if the Padres – and other small-mid-level market teams – want to compete, it is almost essential that they draft and develop well. Producing home grown players would give the Padres a (cheap) core to build around, allowing them to add to it with some good trade acquisitions and solid free agent signings. The past era of Padres baseball has been filled with a mixed bag of drafts – some good, a lot not so good. But overall, they missed out too many times when they had a plethora of high picks.

It is critical that this regime not only evaluate talent well, but also not be afraid to spend the extra dollar. If the Padres are confident in their ability to evaluate a draft class – and they should be, with all the brainpower in the front office – then they shouldn’t be worried about spending that extra money. In the long run, it will be money well spent.

Portland Beavers (5-7); 3rd place (1 GB)

Positives- Batting: Craig Cooper didn’t even make the opening day lineup. Since then has hit .375/.405/.650 while leading the team in RBI (10) and 2nd in RS (7). Too bad he is a 1B… Denorfria and Mike Baxter have also gotten off to hot starts each hitting over .370…Durango has been on base 16 times this season and has 9 SB.

Pitching: Carrillo (9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and Inman (10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP 9 K) are beginning to put themselves back on the prospect map while anchoring the rotation…The Beavers have 4 relievers Frieri, Webb, Worrell, and Burke each with WHIP’s under 1.00, while all having at least an 8 K/9 IP average.

Negatives- Offense: Lance Zawadzki was/is competing for a job in SD has only hit .205/.286/.227 thus far with 3 E and 15 K (44 AB). ..Cunningham and Durango have not been terrible but have not come close to the hype they deservedly received during ST. Both are hitting around .260 with a .300 OBP...Barfield was only 3-18 before being put on the DL.

Pitching: No real negatives outside of the ERAs of Leblanc (7.20) and Russel (11.57). Of course both have come to SD and been lights out.

Notes: The team is sorely missing Antonelli, as the 2B spot has not produced much of anything this year. 8 of the 12 games have been decided by the bullpen (4-4), Beavers are also 2-4 in games decided by 1 run.

San Antonio Missions (5-7); 3rd place (2 GB)

Positives- Batting: Catcher Luis Martinez is picking up where he left off hitting .419/.486/.645 in the Texas League…Former top prospect Cedric Hunter is rebounding from an off year nicely hitting .317/.348/.439

Pitching: #1 Prospect Simon Castro is showing his #1 status going 1-0 0.82 ERA, 11 IP, 10 k, 0.73 WHIP… Buschmann (12 IP, 17 K, 0.73 ERA) and Hefner (15 IP, 14 K, 1.20 ERA) have also been spectacular to begin the year…The pen behind Italiano, DeMark, Oland, Gomes, and Scribner has been fantastic.

Negatives- Batting: Team has not scored more than 4 runs in a game in a week, losing 3 straight after scoring only 1 run in each game. The offense is filled with top prospects but none of them have really produced. Outside of Martinez no Mission has an OPS over .800. Collectively as a team they have only hit 5 HR, 2 3B, and 19 2B. James Darnell only has 1 RBI through 12 games (from a solo HR). Matt Clark (.536 OPS) and Sawyer Carroll (.551 OPS) have anchored the offensive struggles.

Pitching: Wynn Pelzer is essentially the only struggling pitcher 11 R in 5.2 IP while allowing nearly 2.5 runners per inning is not helping one of the top pitching prospects…Aaron Poreda has yet to find his groove walking 6 in 6 IP (3 K). In the field neither Darnell (3 E) or Forsythe (3 E) have been extremely sharp at their position.

Notes: Not much can be said for this Storm team that isnt showing with stats. The team is built around the power and strength of the offense (Forsythe, Darnell, Clark, Carroll, Kulbacki) and the pen (see above). The pitching, for the most part, is doing their job, but the offense needs to catch up. Missions rank last in SB with 2 (both by Hunter) outside of Hunter only Forsythe has even attempted a SB this year. The starting staff could use McBryde and Luebke back to give them a boost.

Lake Elsinore (6-6); Tied for 1st

Positives: Cumberland (.326/.383/.512) and Robertson (.395/.436/.605) have paced the offense. In addition they have 8 of the teams 11 SB. They are also #1 and 2 in RS (with 10 and 9) and #2 and 3 in RBI (with 9 and 6)…After a horrible start Vince Belnome has gone 9-18, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 RS, 7 RBI ib his last 4 games, and is now leading the club with 10 RBI…Cole FIguroa has also done well hitting .295/.380/.341.

Pitching: Jorge Reyes has been excellent (1-0, 3.38 ERA) but unfortuantely is the only starter with an ERA under 4.5…Brad Brach already has 5 SV this year (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K)…Aaron Breit is leading the team in wins (2) as a reliever (8 IP, 1.13 ERA)…It hasnt shown up yet but getting a healthy Jackson Quezada back will be a huge boost for the team.

Negatives: Batting- How much longer do we have to suffer through Carvajal. Carvajal is 3-34, 0 extra base hits and 0 BB. Thats a grand OPS of .176. We’ve had to sit through this for years now and I dont know how much longer the front office can take before he is let go…Despite collecting 5 hits in his last 3 games, Dykstra is still only hitting .200 and 2nd on the team in K’s (10).

Pitching: Bass, Schmidt, Davis, and Fetter have all gotten off to tough starts. Outside of Bass each of the other 3 starters are averaging more than 5 BB/9 IP…In the field Cumberland has been strong the past few games but still has 5 errors on the season. Hopefully we see an improvement soon, or we might see the move to 2nd sooner rather than later.  Figueroa was a SS in college and played short after Cumberland went down last year.

Notes: The team is 12-12 in SB attempts. The offense has not been bad, but will be a lot better when #2 prospect JAFF Decker comes off the DL. Replace Carvajal and his .176 OPS with the guy that led the Tin Caps in nearly every offensive category last year and SHOULD have been MWL MVP and the team improves dramatically. Decker should come off the DL and appear in a game within the next few days.

Fort Wayne Tin Caps (6-6); 4th Place (5 GB)

Positives: Batting: Nate Freiman has taken over 1B hitting .391/.431//652 while leading the club with 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 8 RS…Olabasi and Benedict are each hitting over .360 in limited playing time (19 AB). ..Galvez leads the team with 7 BB and 4 SB (0 CS).

Pitching: 2nd round pick Jerry Sullivan might have been unnoticed because of the picks before (Tate) and after (Williams, Sampson) him but has pitched extremely well thus far going 1-0, 3.68 ERA, 19 K in 14.2 IP… Outside of Dexter Carter no starter has an ERA above 3.68…Rob Musrave has been the stopper for the Fort Wayne pen (4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K). Musgrave has been promoted to LE.

Negatives: The offense has the talent to score 10+ runs a game but hasnt. Williams, Rincon, Liriano and Davis are all hitting at 200 or below. Tin Caps have struck out 104 times in 12 game.  The anchors of the staff, Galvez, Valdez, Liriano, Williams, Rincon, and Davis are all averaging a K a game.

Pitching: For every good thing the rotation has done the pen has given it right back. Rafael Arias has the stuff to be the next Alex Lara or Jackson Quzada (maybe Simon Castro) but right now his 10.38 ERA and 6 BB in 4.1 IP is not doing the job as the closer. The bullpen has pitched 45 innings through the first 12 G… Defensively, to RIncon’s credit he has only committed 2 errors this season, unfortunately the person next to him (Galvez) has committed 8 errors in 12 G. We knew his defense was a work in progress but right now Tin Caps are hoping for some improvement.

Notes: The Tin Caps have an amazingly talented offense that just hasnt produced yet. Everett Williams has battled a sinus infection, so maybe now that it is starting to clear up we will see some improvement (reached base safely 7 times in last 3 G including being a part of 2 walk off wins in a row). Tin Caps can also use some help in the back of the bullpen. With all the “closers” from Eugene’s pen last year going into the rotation it might be a free for all to see who can lock up the 8th and 9th inning roles. Tin Caps have blown 3 saves in the last 3 games.

With the San Diego Padres playing in a morning road game, and the Lake Elsinore Storm hosting a home night game, what better time to go take the drive up the I-15 to the gorgeous Diamond in Lake Elsinore. Well I will answer that by saying do not leave San Diego at 4:30 pm and expect to get there before 6:40. But traffic is beside the point.

There is just something uniquely different about going to a minor league game that makes it so much different from going to a major league game. I will venture to say that it has a lot to do with the marketing. When I pulled up, almost every car in the parking lot, had either a family or a couple going to see the game. Most of them probably could not name more than a handful of players on the Storm, but they wear their gear, and they look forward to having a fun time, watching the mascots, seeing fireworks, and of course, hopefully seeing a Storm victory. If you have never been up to Lake Elsinore for a game, I highly recommend it. It is a different experience from the normal Padres games at Petco (plus its hard to beat Thirsty Thursdays)

Anyway, enough with the fluff piece, back to baseball.

Go figure, I go to a Lake Elsinore Storm game in the hitter friendly Cal League and I get treated to a pitcher’s duel… for the first 7 innings. After that, the flood gates burst open behind expert setup man Alexis Lara. A week ago Lara wowed Padre fans by pitching 2 innings in an “A” ST game, striking out the side in both innings. Tonight was a different story. Lara faced 5 batters, and 5 batters reached base. If it wasn’t for a good play on a carom by Carvajal to hold the batter to a long single, Lara would have allowed the cycle. Then, just for god measure, Schumacker came in and allowed that double to give the Mavericks a cycle for the inning. All in all the score went from 1-0 Storm to a 2-8 loss.

Before the offensive explosion by High Dessert, 1st round pick Nick Schmidt looked a WHOLE lot better than he did in Lake Elsinore last year. He got ahead of hitters, mixed his pitches well, and had hitters guessing the entire time. Making his first start of the year he was pulled after 79 pitches in 5 innings, I will not go out on a limb and say he looks like a player worthy of the lofty 1st round draft choice, but he at least is giving fans some hope that the 2007 1st round pick will not be a complete bust.

The pitcher that most impressed me though has to be Jorge Reyes. Maybe it’s because pitchers that throw a pitch and are immediately ready to throw another pitch have a special place in the hearts of fans who hate the 4 hour Steve Trachsel games. Not only did he throw one pitch right after another, I had him timed at 5 seconds between two pitches, but Reyes also had filthy stuff. Reyes pitched to the heart of the order over an inning and a third, and hitters looked anything but comfortable. Reyes retired every batter he faced, before being removed for the lefty Zack Herr.

Offensively the team is missing Padres #2 prospect Jaff Decker. I will give the hitters the benefit of the doubt that being only the 2nd game of the year, hitters are still trying to shake the rust off, and maybe the HD pitcher, Kenin Kasparek, had his stuff working for him the entire game, BUT the showing, well…looked like a Padres affiliate.

The Storm mustered only 1 run on 3 hits over the first 7 innings, and that 1 run only scored because of a passed ball and wild pitch on back to back pitches. The Storm scored their second run of the game after an excuse me swing single, an infield single (SPEED by Cumberland), and a single + error that let the run score. There were a few hard hit balls, and a couple nice plays (diving stop by the CF to rob Tekotte, and a diving stop by the 3B to rob Belnome), but as a whole the offense was not clicking the way the Tin Caps clicked last year.

Defensively there were some terrific plays and some head scratchers.

Defender of the game has to go to Cole Figureoa. In the first Cole made a nice basket catch on a flyball to RF. The RF (Carvajal) got a horrendous jump, but Cole was there to bail him out. Later in the game he made a great play on a bounding ball up the middle and flipped it over to Cumberland for the out.

Speaking of Cumberland, he did not look comfortable at all at SS. The first play of the game he pulled Dykstra off the bag, but Dykstra was able to make a swipe tag for the out. The next play resulted in Drew throwing a ball that barely got more than half way to 1st before bouncing. Later in the game he had a ball pretty much go right through his legs. Easily a forgettable game for him. After the 1st Cumberland error, the runner took off for second base. Not only did he get a huge jump on Schmidt, but Collins had one of thee worst throws I have ever seen. It nearly hit a ducking Schmidt, and ended up getting to second on a few hops.

As far as individual players, its interesting to look at their swing mechanics and listen to the type of contact they make. Dykstra for instance hits everything HARD. Each time Dykstra made contact with the ball, it flew a mile. Unfortunately for Dykstra and the Storm the mile was either foul or straight up in the air. You can tell though, that provided the timing issue is just rust, he will be a monster hitter.

Carvajal on the other hand….well what can be said that hasn’t already been said. Carvajal to me is the adult who pushes kids out of the way so he can use the batting cages and show off to whoever is watching. He has the strength, raw ability, and on paper should be able to crank one pitch after another over the wall. Instead, as it happens so often with show off guy, Carvajal fails miserably.

A few pop ups, some foul balls, and a lot of building frustration. Carvajal takes this huge swing that almost looks like a pitcher trying to square up on a Lincecum fastball, and comes up completely empty, looking horrible in the process. Finally something clicks and he shortens his swing. Unfortunately it is still Lincecum vs Latos (batting) as the shortened swing looked more like a series of jabs at the ball, each providing less and less contact. When he finally does square up on the ball, it went for an out and a foul ball, neither of which made up for the ugly swings earlier. I don’t know what it will take to get him to “click” but he has managed to quickly go from top 10 prospect, to being lucky if he is not cut in June.

I am a huge fan of both Tekotte and Robertson. They give 110% no matter where the ball is hit, and do everything they can to get on base. Of course the law of average stated that after Tekotte was denied a hit by a great diving stop by the CF, he came up to lead off the 8th and had an excuse me swing that landed over the 3B head in LF. They are tremendous defenders, and have a great head on their shoulder.

While the 2-8 drubbing looked pretty gruesome I will say this “Remain faithful Storm fans, there are quite a few reasons to be an optimistic.” Back to back starters showed us that the pitching will be there, and once Jaff Decker comes back and is added to Cumberland, Dykstra, Belnome, Tekotte, Robertson, etc… this will be a lineup to be feared in the Cal League.

And I will make a stand by my prediction that says the Storm will clinch home field advantage in the Cal League playoffs.

Last winter I took three separate looks at the San Diego Padres 2008 draft. I had started adjusting college offensive statistics for parks and strength of schedule to get a better feel for the true talent levels of the players drafted. You can see my methods here in an article that Myron Logan and I penned for Baseball Analysts. I haven’t changed much except the weightings in my “Score” column since that article. My “Score” is a hodge-podge formula that weights adjusted wOBA, adjusted Isolated Power, a small speed score, K and BB%’s, and runs above average. The runs above average is above the average hitter in that particular conference using the conference’s average park and strength of schedule ratings.

Unfortunately for me, the 2009 draft wasn’t as loaded as the 2008 draft was with college bats. Furthermore, the Pads didn’t take as many college bats this passed June as they did in 2008, so my scope of adjusted numbers isn’t as high as my previous breakdown. But, let’s not drag this out any more. Presented in the order by which they were drafted, here are the college bats the Padres took last June (and signed) that are in my current system (which includes 13 conferences that are the ACC, SEC, Sun Belt, Big West, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10, MAC, WAC, West Coast Conference, Moutain West, Conference USA).

Evaluations after the jump. . .

Jason Hagerty, C/1B, Miami (FL) University
5th Round, 144th overall
RHB, 6-foot-3, 220-pounds

The Stats

2007: -26.12 Score, -13.02 Runs Above Average, 0.233 Adjusted wOBA, 0.023 Adjusted Isolated Power, 9.0% BB, 27.0 K
2008: 18.26 Score, -4.36 Runs Above Average,  0.358 Adjusted wOBA, 0.220 Adjusted Isolated Power, 7.4% BB, 25.9% K
2009: 75.08 Score, 13.16 Runs Above Average, 0.439 Adjusted wOBA, 0.309 Adjusted Isolated Power, 16.5% BB, 18.8% K

The Scouts

Paraphrasing from the above link, Jason Hagerty really vaulted himself into draft discussion during his Junior season at Miami. Scouts have loved the tools he can bring to a baseball diamond, but was inconsistent and never put it all together. He lost the starting catcher job he was expected to have early on, during his sophomore year to Yasmani Grandal. Hagerty finally settled in as a Junior at first base after the departure of big time slugger Yonder Alonso.

My Take

Hagerty wasn’t just inconsistent in his first two seasons at The U, he was just awful. It is worth noting that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) have jumped from .283 to .347 to .350 from his freshman through his junior years. That said, there’s not a ton that can be concluded from his first two seasons as he accumulated 100 plate appearances in 2007 and 162 in 2008. His 260 PA’s is probably a bit more indicative to his talents but I am always skeptical of the Junior Year Breakout kids. Maybe this is a case of putting it altogether and finally getting full-time at a position, but I’m not so sure. He’s more wait-and-see for me. And if he isn’t a catcher long-term, his bat better get substantially better in pro ball if he’s going to be an average regular for the Padres.

Nate Freiman, 1B, Duke University
8th Round, 234th overall
Switch, 6-foot-7, 225-pounds

The Stats

2007: 76.48 Score, 15.61 Runs Above Average, 0.455 Adjusted wOBA, 0.194 Adjusted IsoP, 6.9% BB, 10.5% K
2008: 92.82 Score, 14.21 Runs Above Average, 0.480 Adjusted wOBA, 0.296 Adjusted IsoP, 7.3% BB, 8.9% K
2009: 113.33 Score, 28.28 Runs Above Average, 0.501 Adjusted wOBA, 0.364 Adjusted IsoP, 13.2% BB, 10.3% K

The Scouts

He is a monster of a man that looks more like an NFL tight end than a college first baseman. PG Crosscheckers has him listed at 6-foot-8, 240-pounds. The first listing I have is from his Baseball Reference page. There’s some length in his swing and he’s got a bit of an unorthodox approach but the power that comes in a man this size is legit. He will hit many baseballs a long, long way. How many baseballs he hits otherwise, is the question. He’ll need to hit for a decent average (or be above-average in OBP) to supplement this power that is unquestioned.

My Take

I was a huge James Darnell fan when I penned this series last winter. Doing a project like this allows me, as a fan of prospects, to find other under-the-radar guys that likely won’t be stars. Nate Freiman is the James Darnell of 2009 for me. Admittedly, he loses defensive value when compared to Darnell who played 3rd base and profiles as a corner outfielder if he doesn’t stick at the hot corner. Freiman is a first baseman but has expressed a desire to catch and some scouts have liked what they’ve seen in bullpen sessions of his when he has caught, but he’s just too big to do it in my opinion. So he’s a first baseman in pro ball. He did improve his patience in 2009, but I wonder how many of those were intentional walks.  Unfortunately, that’s not public data. He strikes me, though, as an all-or-nothing guy; kind of a Mike Hessman of sorts. I think he can help a big league club in the future, but I’m not sure it’s as a full-time starter. Don’t pay much attention to his Runs Above Average total going down in 2008 from his 2007 season despite his increase in wOBA — that speaks to the ACC’s strength at the plate in the loaded 2008 draft.

Matt Vern, 1B, Texas Christian University
13th Round, 384th overall
6-foot-3, 225-pounds

The Stats

2007: 36.47 Score, -1.96 Runs Above Average, 0.399 Adjusted wOBA, 0.201 Adjusted IsoP, 10.0% BB, 22.5% K
2008: 41.92 Score, -3.80 Runs Above Average, 0.393 Adjusted wOBA, 0.215 Adjusted IsoP, 12.5% BB, 21% K
2009: 95.80 Score, 29.98 Runs Above Average, 0.506 Adjusted wOBA, 0.360 Adjusted IsoP, 13.4% BB, 19.5% K

The Scouts

I got nothin’…

My Take

Vern had no less than 224 PA’s in any of the three seasons in my database and his 2009 season wasn’t a breakout because of BABIP (.408, .333, .401 2007-09). His breakout happened because of making more contact (.360 batting average; 19.5% K rate). He belted 17 homers in 2009 after having just 11 in 2007 and 2008 combined. That spike in homers is what really drove his wOBA number. Unfortunately, I can’t find any scouting report on him, so I don’t have much to offer in that realm, but I will say that someone K’ing at that rate in college is not a safe bet to be a big time pro. That can be seen by his uninspiring showing in Eugene to the tune of a 0.295 wOBA. I wouldn’t bet on many 13th rounders to begin with, and Vern’s poor showing in Eugene coupled with his high strikeout rate at TCU don’t make me excited.

Coming up in Part 2: Chris Trembley (19th round), Cody Decker (22nd), Bo Davis (24th round).

Over at Project Prospect, there’s a nice and informative scouting report on the swing of 1st year pro, James Darnell. I had a three part series that looked at the 2008 college bats the Padres took in June of 2008 and I loved everything about James Darnell’s college statistics. I’m still a big time Darnell fan and think the former South Carolina Gamecock can be, at the very least, an average right fielder in the majors (not sure he can stick at third).

The scouting report makes a very interesting swing comparison: Justin Upton. Now, Steve Carter (who is using an alias but did play college baseball), cautioned he’s not expecting near the offensive production of Upton, but that they do have similar swings. An excerpt from the conclusion:

Darnell has the tools, ability, and swing to be a very solid offensive 3rd baseman. Eighteen home runs and a .998 OPS between Low-A Fort Wayne and High-A Lake Elsinore is certainly nothing to scoff at. But, the real test for Darnell will come at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Then we will find out if he is just a polished college hitter pounding A-ball pitching, or a legitimate prospect. If he can improve his upper body pattern and make a few other refinements, he could go from a potential Casey Blake with patience type, and move toward his ceiling of a pre-2009 breakout Ryan Zimmerman with a higher on base percentage.

So, there’s some things to like. Casey Blake with patience definitely isn’t anything to scoff at and Ryan Zimmerman with better OBP is very good outcome as well. There’s a lot to like about Darnell.

Now, while you’re perusing the Project Prospect website, feel free to read my PITCHf/x look at Jake Arrieta, a Baltimore Orioles right-handed pitcher. Yeah, it’s self-promotion and I will not be ashamed of it! Why should you read about an Orioles pitching prospect? Well, because I’ll be writing these types of pieces for Project Prospect when prospects make their debuts. So, I want you to get used to the format for when I pen my piece on Mat Latos (which I already looked at his debut right here for FF) through the PITCHf/x lens.

Clayton Richard made his San Diego Padres debut on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers after being acquired by the Pads for Jake Peavy (trade valuation coming from me sometime tomorrow on Beyond the Boxscore where I’ll be joining the BtB team of writers) on Friday. Before we jump into the PITCHf/x, lets look at the start through the numbers:

5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 90 pitches (49 strikes), 8 ground outs, 4 fly outs.

Now, onto the graph-y goodness. First up is the release points (click images to enlarge):

Richard stands 6-foot-5 and weighs in at 240-pounds, but he was consistently “releasing” the baseball at just under 6-foot. So, he comes from a 3/4 arm slot. But, he repeats his delivery well and comes from a very consistent release point.

Now, the strikezone plot:

He only threw 49 strikes out of the 90 total pitches, so he was a bit wild. The view is from the catcher’s perspective, so he worked away from right-handed hitters for most of the night, but given the amount of right-handers he faced, that’s not surprising.

And speaking of how he attacked right-handed and left-handed batters, here’s a couple pie graphs:

Typical platoon split: drops the change-up versus left-handed hitters, and picks it back up against right-handers. Overall, though, he worked the fastball (either four-seam [FF] or two-seam [FT]) all night.

And now the pitch flight graph (again, courtesy of Harry Pavlidis):

My breakdown of Clayton Richard differs a bit from Myron Logan’s. I attempted to split up the four-seam and two-seam fastballs as best I could, but I still might be/am probably wrong on some of them. I wound up with 48 four-seamers and 21 two-seamers while averaging 91.7 MPH on the former and 90.4 on the latter. His four-seamer seemed to have a bit more arm-side run, but less sink (minimally). Just keep in mind that I was eye-balling the fastballs and made some judgement calls, so they aren’t anywhere near 100% accurate (and if they are, it’s absolute luck on my part).

As far as his breaking ball goes, MLB Gameday classified three of them as curveballs, but after graphing them out, there was virtually no difference in flight path from his slider. I don’t know if he throws a curveball or a slider, but on the flight paths I went with curveball as I believe that’s what the scouting report on him says. As you probably noticed, I classified them all as sliders on the other graphs — that’s just a little mistake on my part, but they’re still depicting the same data set. Either way, he’s got a bit of “sweep” on his slider and some decent downward movement.

Meanwhile, his change-up has some arm-side run but very little sinking action.

On the whole, Richard looks to have pretty average stuff for a big, tall lefty, but his results speak for themselves thus far: 4.32 FIP in 142.1 big league innings pitched. So, he’s definitely a back-end starter, but he’s got value as he’s probably above-average for a number 5 starter.

Overall, the Padres got a good haul in the Jake Peavy deal.

UPDATE: Unfortunately, as I was doing this this evening, I mistakenly lumped Latos’ curveball’s in with his change-up’s. I have since fixed this, and re-written the paragraph on his change as well as penned one on his curveball. Whoops.

I’m just going to get this out of the way: I did not see one single pitch Mat Latos threw, unfortunately. I was busy and missed both his abbreviated outing in the Future’s Game, as well as his Major League Debut last night against the Colorado Rockies.

Here’s what I know about him: he can throw the baseball. Hard.

These graphs are made possible by Harry Pavlidis and his Pitch Flight tool.

First up, are the release points. Click on both images to enlarge.

That y-axis is in feet. That means, Mat Latos is “releasing” (data’s actually recorded 50 feet from home plate, I believe, so it’s not “true” release point) the baseball from nearly 7 feet in the air. He’s a big boy as it is, and his tall-and-fall mechanics lead to an even higher, over the top release point.

Now, on to the PITCHf/x flight path graphs. What this shows me is the movement of each of his pitches on its way to home plate. This sort of thing is hard to read for some people, so I am willing to answer any and all questions on it later tonight.

The Fastball (the green line) — 56 of his 70 pitches recorded by PITCHf/x were fastballs and all were coded as 4-seam fastballs. He averaged 94.9 MPH on them. From the graph, I see a very straight heater which is what I saw when I graphed out his Future’s Game performance on the message boards over at Project Prospect. I don’t see a lot of downward movement on his fastball from this outing against the Rockies, either, but coming from such a high release, I’m sure it’s difficult to hit. Ideally, though, you’d like to see a fastball that bends or sinks more than Latos’ does.

The Change-up (the red line) — Latos has a big time arm, but I think his secondary offerings are where his bread is buttered. He threw just one change-up and it clocked in at 82.2 MPH. It came from a lower release point (1st base view) than his other three pitches, but that’s likely because he threw just one of them. Good dive on it and a decent amount of tailing action.

The Slider (the yellow-ish line) — He threw only 8 of these at an average velocity of 82.5 MPH. He’s got a little sweeping action on it (bird’s eye view) and has a lot of downward movement, as well. Both his change-up and his slider compliment his fastball extremely well due to their similar release points, but both dive well below his fastball. I really like both of these offerings much more than his fastball.

The Curveball (the blue line) — He threw five of these averaging 81.8 MPH. It seems very 12-6 but with good drop on it. It comes from the same plane and arm slot as his fastball and follows it pretty well, but it’s kind of slurve-y which leads me to believe that his slider and his curveball are the same pitch, just classified differently by gameday. I’ll defer to Harry Pavlidis’ week New Arms Roundup on Beyond the Boxscore this weekend.

Conclusion

First off, I need to say that there really aren’t any “conclusions” from his outings that were recorded by PITCHf/x. He threw just 8 pitches in the Future’s game and then another 70 last night. That sample is too small to draw any hard conclusions. However, it’s enough to give a decent hypothesis on Latos and his stuff. He’s got the tall-and-fall mechanics with a clean arm action and they seem to be repeatable. Some have panned his mechanics but that’s likely due to not being a fan of the tall-and-fall motion. Alex Eisenberg over at Baseball-Intellect said he’s not a fan of tall-and-fall but that he doesn’t see a red flag from Latos, despite that motion.  I trust Alex’s opinion and some others in the Project Prospect forums have expressed opinions similar to Alex’s: not a fan of that style of pitching (would prefer drop-and-drive), but for what it is, it isn’t overly cringe-worthy.

His stuff features a big time fastball in velocity, but I’d like to see him throw more 2-seamers as his 4-seamer is very straight in both horizontal and vertical movement. His breaking ball and his change-up are great compliments to it — it’s easy to see why Latos’ stuff is heralded. Now, if he can only stay on the field.

Edit to my conclusion: I am not sure what exactly type breaking ball he throws, but they seem to be very similar.