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This frown’s not turning upside down

January 9, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, San Diego Padres, trades with 21 Comments

The San Diego Padres made an unsurprising move on Friday. They sent first baseman Anthony Rizzo and pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Much of the initial reaction to the trade is negative from the Padres’ perspective. Here are my thoughts (obviously).

I’m not going to get knee deep in the numbers, and I’m essentially looking at this trade for the Rizzo and Cashner pieces. Na’s track record leaves nothing to be excited about, and one season does not a prospect make as far as Cates’ status is concerned.

Geoff Young of Ducksnorts tweeted a nice piece by Jason Wojciechowski to help frustrated fans/bloggers to maintain perspective when they can’t get behind deals made by their teams. It was a nice refresher, but I’m still writing, aren’t I?

I know I don’t hold all the keys to the kingdom and am definitely “armchairing” it as I write about these things, but what Wojciechowski didn’t touch upon is the reason I write despite having little to no insider information. It’s the passion I have for my Padres. I’m not trying to turn this into a thesis on blogging, but I did think it worth mentioning that I am well aware of the knowledge I don’t possess, yet I’m compelled to opine anyway.

Okay…back on topic. The deal is done, and I’ve had some time to digest it (along with a God-awful heaping of Taco Bell that may taint my analysis). I’ve read what others think, and I’m trying to see as many angles as possible here. The conclusion I continue to reach, however, is that this has the potential to be a terrible deal for San Diego.

The thing about trades, though, is the time factor. Hence the use of the word “potential”. Only time will tell how this works out. That’s the funny thing about trades from a fan perspective. By the time a trade’s outcome can be measured, we’ve already focused on other, more pertinent issues at hand, so we don’t often stop to truly evaluate a trade at its most appropriate point. Mental note: write an article about this trade on the last day of the World Series. I think that will be the time we’ll be able to really figure out who won.

In fact, Joe Fan is probably already starting to get foggy about the Adrian Gonzalez trade to Boston. As it stands, we just shipped out the centerpiece position player of this deal in Rizzo. Patterson has already found greener pastures. With Kelly’s stock falling a bit and Fuentes not showing overwhelming numbers, it’s becoming clear that Boston got the better end of that deal.

Why does this matter? Because San Diego’s organization has little to no room for error. It’s imperative for both amateur and professional writers to hold the Padres organization accountable by critiquing trades. Baseball is an odd business because the bottom line for clubs is money; however, the way they make money is ultimately traced back and through its fan base. Therefore, is the team in it for its own bottom line or to appease its fan base? Or is one a product of the other? That being said, can we assume a team has its fans’ best interests at heart? How can you even measure that? I’m not sure of any of the answers to those questions.

My apologies. I feel like I keep going off on philosophical tangents, but I can’t help it. I know I should just toss this toga into the hamper and get back to the trade itself.  I suppose it’s a way for me to rationalize the emotional…which may be an effort in futility.

Okay…I promise this time. Back to the trade analysis we go.

I’m going to Nostradamasize here and call this one a dud and will even go so far as to say that it will trump Josh Byrnes’ previous stinker: trading Carlos Quentin to the White Sox. In the future, he’ll be known for trading away Joey Votto 2.0 for a reliever who showed flashes of brilliance but would wind up taking the Aaron Poreda path of all stuff, no location. Then, to top it off, Cashner will get seriously injured and miss significant time. Meanwhile, Rizzo will win the starting gig coming out of Spring Training and will put up the following slash line: .275/.340/.480.

Gulp…that’s a hefty prediction on my part. Now that it’s on the screen, it looks pretty extreme. This would certainly be a worst case scenario for San Diego. While it may be bold, though, it’s not “off the map” bold. This could happen.

Now, this could also happen. Rizzo scuffles as he adjusts to MLB pitching, and finishes out with a line of: .220/.320/.440. He strikes out too much, and doesn’t exhibit the power stroke of a Votto. Meanwhile, Cashner is 100% healthy and remains so, thanks to San Diego’s top-notch training staff. He locks down the 8th inning role, which lifts some of the tremendous pressure on the young, talented bullpen arms. Huston Street is later moved at the deadline for a nice prospect or two, and Cashner, with Black and Balsley’s help, becomes a dominant closer with a propensity for the occasional flameout (as closers do). This scenario is also not “off the map,” but it is extreme in favor of San Diego.

So, that leaves us with the question: which is more likely? Your guess is as good as mine because neither guy is proven. I suppose that’s why it’s been so difficult to keep this article on topic.

Ultimately, my bottom line says that Chicago will benefit from this more than San Diego will. The reason being, we are in a more desperate need of position players with pop, not pitching (I know…you can never have too much pitching). To me, Brynes is looking like he’ll be featured on an upcoming episode of Extreme Couponing. The cameras will follow him as he proudly opens a pantry in the back of the clubhouse that has 50 different bullpen guys in numerical order, sitting on the shelf.

On one hand, you have to watch in awe. But on the other, you’re thinking: at what point is this just plain crazy?

Friar Forecast contributors on Anthony Rizzo deal

January 7, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, trades with 3 Comments

My take on the Anthony Rizzo/Andrew Cashner swap is decidedly rotten. I figured it’d be interesting to gather the opinions of the rest of Friar Forecast on the deal. Chris Kelly will have his analysis as part of his Monday article, but here’s what Daniel, Scott, and Ben thought about the trade.

Daniel Gettinger

In swapping Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates for Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na, the San Diego Padres made a trade that is difficult to defend.

To see why, let’s make a few assumptions, that would seemingly tilt the deal in the Padres favor:

1) Anthony Rizzo profiles similarly to Adam LaRoche, a solid but highly replaceable first baseman.

* As Myron already outlined, although Rizzo is not a perfect prospect, he is relatively young, has had great success in the minor leagues, and is still highly rated by scouting gurus such as John Sickels. Prior to his 2011 campaign, in which he hit .331/.404/.652 in AAA, Geoff Young suggested Adam LaRoche as a good comp. for Rizzo. Although Rizzo struggled in his small sample of major league at-bats, his AAA performance suggests, in expectation, he still profiles to be at least as good as Adam LaRoche.

2) Andrew Cashner will quickly develop into a hard-throwing top flight reliever such as a Jonathan Broxton.

* Upon first hearing about the trade, my initial thought was, “somebody in the Padres organization clearly thinks Cashner can be a number two starter,” but reports since the trade suggest the Padres view Cashner as a reliever, with only the possibility of him becoming a starter in the future. Therefore, lets say the best case scenario is for Cashner to pitch top-notch ball out of the bullpen immediately, and do so for a number of years.

3) Zach Cates is no better a prospect than Kyung-Min Na.

* There are few (if any) favorable scouting reports on Na, while Cates seems to have some potential. For the sake of argument, lets say that Na and Cates are equivalent prospects.

Operating under these assumptions, and the fact that teams have six years of control until a player reaches free agency, the Padres, at best traded the first six years of Adam LaRoche’s career for years 2-6 of Jonathan Broxton’s career (Cashner already has over one year of service time).

Below is a table outlining the WAR (according to Fangraphs) accumulated by LaRoche (2004-2009) and Broxton (2006-2011) in their first 6 years.

LaRoche Broxton
Year 1 0.9 N/A
Year 2 -1.2 2.0
Year 3 2.5 2.2
Year 4 2.3 2.8
Year 5 1.5 1.1
Year 6 2.4 -0.3
TOTAL 8.4 7.8

With the exception of 2011, Broxton was about as good as a reliever can be in his 2-6 years, and he was still worth less in terms of WAR than Adam LaRoche in his first six years.

My assumptions were very favorable for the Padres in that they limited Rizzo’s upside to Adam LaRoche, assumed Andrew Cashner will be as good of a reliever as Jonathan Broxton, and ignored that Cates is likely a better prospect than Na. Even with these assumptions in place, trading Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner appears to be at best an even deal.

Unless the Padres (and the rest of major league baseball) believe Anthony Rizzo’s upside is that of Adam LaRoche, and Rizzo comes with considerable downside risk as well, the Padres could have received greater value by holding out for a different deal.

Scott Tanderup (also posted on Scott’s blog)

A lot of initial fan backlash on this trade. I don’t have a huge problem with this trade and may actually like it. It is clear from the Latos and now Rizzo trade that a top middle infield prospect that is close to ML ready is just not available. There is such a huge drop in talent from guys like Machado and Profar to the next level of middle infield prospect. Some fans wanted Wade Davis from the Rays. Why? I wouldn’t put him ahead of Anthony Bass on the depth chart.

The biggest argument against this trade is from a “value” standpoint. Clearly, the Cubs valued Cashner very highly or Cates would not have been added. Many fans feel Rizzo has far more “value” than Cashner.

What I like about this trade is that the Padres get a reliever that should be very effective at Petco in 2012 and still control him for several more years as they work to figure out what Cashner’s real future is. Cashner has solid stuff and a plus-plus fastball. His control has been improving each year and now he has a chance to work with Black and Balsley. The Padres essentially are getting a solid late inning relief guy with elite starter upside. The one thing the Padres deep stable of pitching prospects has lacked is an “elite” upside pitcher that is ML ready or close to ML ready. You could make an argument that Cashner has the best “stuff” of any Padres player or prospect. This represents the beginning of the next “phase” in the Padres future… acquiring and drafting “elite” upside players. I think you will see the trend continue in the 2012 draft. The days of drafting safe college players are behind the Padres.

Byrnes, in my opinion, has done an excellent job of continuing the movement for the future while simultaneously putting together a team in 2012 that may surprise. Cashner fits both the “win now” and “build for the future” scenarios.

I realize I may be in the minority, but they had the depth to take the gamble.

Ben Davey

I am not a big fan of the trade. Both Rizzo and Cashner have question marks. However, if both pan out, Rizzo’s value as an all-star first basemen far outweigh that of a  closer. Would you trade Ryan Howard for Jonathon Broxton? Didn’t think so.

Padres acquire Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo

January 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 7 Comments

If we learned anything from Jed Hoyer’s stay in San Diego, trading with him probably isn’t the best idea. With the likes of Theo Epstein and Jason McLeod as reinforcements, it doesn’t help matters.

On Friday, Josh Byrnes and the San Diego Padres traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right hander Zach Cates to Hoyer and the Cubs for right-handed reliever Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

When the Padres acquired first basemen Yonder Alonso as part of the Mat Latos trade, Anthony Rizzo was immediately expendable. While there’s certainly debate about who will be better, Alonso or Rizzo, it was obvious that the current regime liked Alonso’s bat as a better long-term fit. He’s more polished at this point and has had major league success, and he may be better suited for Petco.

Rizzo struggled mightily in 153 plate appearances with the Padres last season, hitting .141/.281/.242. He struck out in 30 percent of his PAs. Still, 150 major league PAs do not negate over 1,500 in the minors. Further, Rizzo had one of his finest overall years in 2011, hitting .331/.404/.652 in Triple-A Tucson. He pounded 61 extra-base hits in 93 games.

Despite the major league hiccup, Rizzo was still a consensus top 10 prospect in the Padres system this offseason. In fact, he was recently rated as the number one prospect in a highly-regarded system by Baseball America and John Sickels.

Some are still concerned with how Rizzo’s offensive game will transfer to the big leagues. As Kevin Goldstein notes, he’s struggled against lefties, he has a hitch in his swing, and he tends to get pull happy. Further, left-handed pull power probably isn’t the best fit for Petco Park. Though that’s not a reason to dismiss a prospect, it may have helped vault the more well-rounded Alonso ahead of Rizzo on the organizational depth chart.

Warts and all, Rizzo will have a chance to excel for the rebuilding Cubs, and he’ll get full support from a front office who believes in him. Jed Hoyer has now acquired him twice, once with the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez and now with the Cubbies. Theo dealt him to the Padres, but he received Adrian Gonzalez in return, so we can’t blame him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rizzo turn into a solid everyday starter at some point in 2012.

The Padres also gave up right-handed starter Zach Cates. Cates, drafted under Hoyer and McLeod in the third round of the 2010 amateur draft, pitched 118 innings at Single-A Fort Wayne last season. He posted a 4.73 ERA and walked four per nine, but he struck out an encouraging 22 percent. He also surrendered only four home runs.

The former catcher isn’t highly-rated in the Padres current system, but he’s a little more than just throw-in. Drafted in the third round, reportedly with solid mechanics and stuff (with less wear and tear than most pitchers), and a solid debut campaign make him an intriguing lower level prospect.

The main piece acquired by San Diego is reliever Andrew Cashner. This offseason, Kevin Goldstein rated Cashner fourth on the Cubs under-25 top ten list, ahead of all but two of their current top ten prospects (and Starlin Castro). He said:

Cashner has looked good stuff-wise in his return from injuries, but he’s likely bullpen-only at this point, and his command is far from all the way back.

The Twitter-verse has already confirmed that Cashner will be used in the pen next season, with a chance to develop into a starter (so says Byrnes). It sounds like he’s better off in the bullpen, where he can reportedly touch 100 on the radar gun.

Cashner threw a total of 15 and a third innings in 2011, between the Cubs and the minor leagues, thanks to shoulder issues all season long. In 2010, he pitched 54 and a third innings for the Cubs out of the pen, striking out 8.3 and walking five per nine. His HR/9 was 1.3.

Drafted four times, Cashner finally signed with the Cubs after being selected 18th overall in the 2008 amateur draft. He spent his first three years in the minor leagues working primarily out of the rotation, until he was called up in 2010. He had mixed results as a starter.

In 2009, he pitched 100 and a third innings in High-A and Double-A to a 2.60 ERA, but he K’ed only 18 percent. He did only gave up one homer. His strikeout rate jumped to 27 percent in 2010 in 59 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Again, he allowed just one homer.

In 182 minor league innings, Cashner allowed an off-the-charts good three home runs. He struck out two batters for every walk, and posted a 2.82 ERA. Cashner was well-regarded in the minors: Kevin Goldstein rated him as the fifth best Cubs prospect in 2010 and he cracked Baseball America’s top 100 that same year.

Injury concerns plus, as Goldstein notes, a high-effort delivery and low minor league pitch counts as a starter lead many to believe he’ll end up in the pen, which is where he’s been with the Cubs and where he’ll start as the Padres. The chance that he’ll develop into a starter is always there, but for now we have to view him as a reliever.

Big velocity with the fastball and a solid slider, combined with solid groundball and home run rates, will give Cashner a chance to be devastating in the back of the Padres pen. Petco will help the home run issues he had in the majors in 2010. Cashner is arbitration eligible in 2013 and will reach free agency in 2017, according to Cot’s Contracts (he’s a super-two). edit: there are conflicting reports as to Cahsner’s super-two status.

The Padres also acquired center fielder Kyung-Min Na. The 20-year-old was excellent in Rookie Ball in 2011, hitting .360/.453/.450 in 119 plate appearances. He quickly advanced to Low-A ball where he hit .171/.276/.184 in 88 PAs. In Single-A he rebounded some, hitting .258/.333/.303 in 100 PAs.

That short stint in Rookie Ball in the lone bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming early track record. Na has recorded just 16 extra base hits in 519 minor league plate appearances. He’s still young and I suppose offers some upside, but he has a lot to prove before one can think of him as a legit prospect.

If the Padres were a competitive team with a hole in the back of the pen, this deal would be understandable, if not favorable. They aren’t expected to compete, however, and they’ve been able to pick up solid relievers off the scrap heap for years now, thanks to good scouting/coaching and generous Petco Park.

Rizzo was expendable, but there was really no rush to trade the 22-year-old. If he performed well in Triple-A again, surely a contending team in need of some pop would come along and offer a package better than Cashner/Na. Let’s not forget the Padres had to include Cates, who probably has a better long-term outlook at this point than Na.

This move may help the Padres in 2012, but it won’t help them much long-term. A late-inning reliever, even one as potentially dominant as Cashner, isn’t what they should be shopping for right now, especially if it involves dealing away an everyday player as potentially valuable as Rizzo.

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Padres deal Anthony Rizzo to Cubs

January 6, 2012 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with Comments Off

Not coming as a huge surprise with the recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso, the San Diego Padres have traded first basemen Anthony Rizzo and right-handed pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs for right hander Andrew Cashner and center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

While the Padres perhaps lost some leverage when acquiring Alonso, this appears to be a surprising small haul for a prospect of Rizzo’s potential. We’ll have more later on, giving the trade some time to digest. Feel free to discuss here.

Padres acquire Carlos Quentin

December 31, 2011 in Myron Logan, prospects, San Diego Padres, trades with 3 Comments

The San Diego Padres have acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox for right-handed pitcher Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez.

Carlos Quentin, who has spent significant time in both outfield corners, enters his final year of arbitration. He’s estimated to make $7.5 million in 2012 before entering free agency in 2013, according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Quentin is above average with the bat, hitting .257/.352/.505 in four seasons in Chicago. In 483 plate appearances in 2011, Quentin hit .245/.340/.499 – numbers almost identical to his career line. Quentin has very good power and much of his on-base skills are due to extremely high hit-by-pitch totals (78 over the past four years).

He’s a solid offensive player, but he’ll leave hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular for Petco, and it’ll remain to be seen how his fly-ball-centric offense will adjust (Quentin has averaged near 50 percent fly balls over the past three years). Every hitter is hurt by Petco, but some adjust better than others .

Further hampering Quentin’s value is his defense. Over his career in the outfield, Quentin is -22 by DRS and -32 by UZR (-8 of that thanks to his arm rating), according to FanGraphs. His Fans Scouting Report numbers have also not been encouraging, with only one attribute (arm strength) being rated above average. Overall, he doesn’t appear to be a good outfielder.

At an expected $7-8 million in 2012, there isn’t a lot of value to be had here, especially on a team not expected to compete.

The Padres didn’t give up any top prospects, but they did give up a couple of intriguing pieces.

Prior to last season, Simon Castro was rated as the 58th best prospect in MLB by Baseball America. Kevin Goldstein had him pegged as the Padres second best prospect before ‘11.

Castro failed to build on his promising resume and when the Padres acquired a slew of shiny new prospects, he fell to Prospect Obscurity Land (outside of BA’s and BP’s top 10).

Check out his peripherals in Double-A from 2010 and 2011:

Year Inn K/PA BB/PA BABiP FIP
2010 129.7 20.2% 6.8% .271 3.34
2011 89.3 19.5% 4.3% .321 3.80

That looks like largely the same pitcher. His walk rate  actually went down, his strike out percentage went down only slightly, and his average on balls in play (of which he’d have the least control over) skyrocketed.

There are obviously some concerns. His groundball rate dropped (and his home run rate subsequently increased), his serious struggles in limited Triple-A innings are alarming, and the general decline in his strikeout rate as he climbs the ladder is not encouraging.

Still, if you’re telling me this guy was a legitimate prospect before last season and now he’s an afterthought, well, I’m not quite buying it. Either your prospect ratings weren’t that good to begin with, or you’re overreacting to his 2011 performance.

While losing Castro stings, Pedro Hernandez may be the bigger prize here. He’s left-handed, he doesn’t turn 23 until April, and he’s performed well at every level besides Triple-A. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 5.4. He’s K’ed eight per nine while walking just 1.5, in 343 minor league innings.

There are concerns, too, of course. His size, mainly, as he’s only 5-10, 200. Further, his stuff isn’t overpowering as his fastball sits in the high-80s.

Castro and Hernandez aren’t top prospects, and there’s a chance that they don’t develop any further. Still, why deal them for a one-year rental on a team not expected to make a true playoff push in 2012? Sure, they could deal Quentin at the deadline or pick up a draft pick or two next year if they decide to hold onto him (edit: probably won’t get picks, thanks to the new CBA).

Personally, I’d rather they held onto Casto and Hernandez or targeted someone with more long-term value than Carlos Quentin. This isn’t a terrible trade by any means and it doesn’t change my (still optimistic) outlook on Josh Byrnes, but I can’t say it gets my Fred McGriff stamp of endorsement.

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