Looking for writers

December 13, 2011 in blogging, Myron Logan with 1 Comment

We are currently looking to add contributors at Friar Forecast.

We’re hoping to provide more extensive coverage of the San Diego Padres heading into the 2012 season, and one of the best ways to do that is to add some new voices.

Preferably, we would be interested in someone with an analytical mindset and some writing/blogging experience. Any type of specific knowledge, be it prospects, sabermetrics, business, etc., is a plus.

New writers would be expected to contribute (at least) once a week on a scheduled day, but this is negotiable.

If interested, use the contact form above or e-mail Myron at myronlogan5 [at] yahoo [dot] com. Please don’t be hesitant to inquire, even if you’re not sure if you meet the “requirements.” We’re flexible and would be happy to work something out.

Thanks
-Myron

The Andrew Friedman approach

December 12, 2011 in contracts, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

While other teams were busy spending big dollars on free-agents at the Winter Meetings, Tampa Bay Rays General Manager Andrew Friedman locked up left-handed pitching prospect Matt Moore to a five year, $14 million dollar deal. The deal could extend to eight years, $40 million thanks to three club options.

The Rays have become notorious for locking up their young talent (Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, etc.) to long-term, cost-effective deals, buying out arbitration and free-agent eligible seasons and saving a lot of dough.

Moore has only pitched 19.3 big league innings (23 strikeouts, 6 walks), so the Rays are taking a bit of a risk. He’s worked his way up the Rays system in dominant fashion, but he wasn’t a sure-thing by any means, drafted in 8th round of the 2007 draft.

Still, the Rays are trying to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees on a considerably smaller budget, and one way to keep the payroll down and hold onto their star players for as long as possible is to a take calculated risk like this.

That brings us to our San Diego Padres, who are in a similar situation trying to compete with the spending of the Dodgers and Giants (not to mention the D’backs and Rockies). Here’s a look at NL West payrolls, over the last five years (data courtesy of Cots Contracts):

nl west spending 

The Padres have planted themselves at the bottom of the division in spending, sitting well back of the Rockies and Diamondbacks, let alone the high-rolling Dodgers and Giants. There are a number of reasons that could explain the gap, but the Padres aren’t going to outspend the rest of this division anytime soon.

To compete the Padres need to be more efficient with their resources. One way to do that would be to sign some Freidman-like extensions. How have the Padres fared in this area?

The Padres did sign Adrian Gonzalez to a four year, $9.5 million deal (plus an option) back in 2007, which likely saved them a large chunk of change and may have increased Gonzalez’s trade value last offseason. The deal didn’t, however, buy out any of Gonzalez’s free-agent years to keep him in San Diego longer.

The Padres got closer when they signed Jake Peavy to an extension in 2005, buying out one of his free-agent years with a club option. They extended his contract in 2007, with a more free-agent-like three year, $52 million deal.

This current version of the Padres have not extended any young players. Chase Headley’s contract has been played year-by-year, and he has three arbitration-eligible seasons remaining (thanks to super-two status) before he becomes a free agent.

Ace righty Mat Latos hasn’t been extended yet, and he’s due to become a free-agent in 2016. Incidentally, Tom Krasovic reports that Latos and Headley may not be in the Padres long-term plans.

There are a number of other young players to consider: Cameron Maybin (Free-agent: 2016), Will Venable (FA: 2016), Nick Hundley (FA: 2015), Clayton Richard (FA: 2015). There are unestablished guys like Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Blanks, too.

Moore, Longoria, Crawford, Pedroia, Lester – all guys who have been signed to these type of long-term deals as young players, giving up the potential to maximize their earnings and hit free-agency sooner for money in the bank. They are all special players, of course, and you could argue that Latos and Headley (among other current Padres) don’t warrant that type of commitment.

It’s all about picking the right guys, of course, and not just handing out extensions to anyone. With a slew of good prospects on the horizon, and young big-league talent like Latos and Maybin, the Padres are going to have some decisions to make. 

Rule 5 draft

December 8, 2011 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

Albert Pujols signing with the Los Angeles Angels slightly overshadowed the always entertaining Rule 5 draft this morning.

For the most part, the Rule 5 draft has become rather insignificant over the last number of years, though the San Diego Padres did pick up Everth Cabrera a few years back.

This year the Padres lost a couple of pitchers in the minor league phase. Lefty Aaron Poreda was once the key piece coming from the Chicago White Sox in the Jake Peavy trade, and he was selected by the Pirates today. The main issue with Poreda was his control. Despite converting to a reliever in the Padres organization, Poreda wasn’t able to harness his control. And that’s being nice.

In the last two season, split between Double-A and Triple-A, Poreda walked a whopping 127 batters in 123.7 innings. He has strikeout ability and rarely allows a home run, but those walk numbers are ridiculously high. While he still may have talent, it’d be hard to classify him as a prospect at this point, and the Padres likely won’t miss him.

It’s a little disappointing because the package received for Jake Peavy, outside of Clayton Richard, hasn’t been overly good. Then again, Peavy has not been good himself in Chicago.

The Padres also lost right-handed pitcher Matt Buschmann to the Washington Nationals. I once ranked Bushmann as the Padres 26th best prospect way back in 2007. He had another solid year in Double-A after that, but could never succeed in Triple-A. He’ll be 28 in February and is obviously not looked at as a prospect at this point.

The Padres picked up shortstop Michael Wing from the Angels in the Triple-A phase. Wing is 23 and was ranked as the 38th best Angels prospect by an Angels forum early in 2011. If anything, Wing is at least a fringe prospect.

Though he’s listed as a shortstop, Wing has spent more time at second base and third base over the last few seasons. He hasn’t risen past High-A ball, but he’s put up a pretty good offensive track record, hitting .300/.363/.465 in his minor league career. Perhaps Wing can stick as a utility player on the big club, though it would take a Cabrera-like jump for him to succeed in the majors.

Padres acquire Huston Street from Rockies

December 7, 2011 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 4 Comments

The San Diego Padres have acquired closer Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies for a PTBNL and cash considerations.

It’s hard to truly evaluate this deal until the player heading to Colorado is identified. The cash, apparently, is $.5 million in 2012 and the $.5 million buyout in 2013 if the option is declined.

Anyway, I had read a lot about how the Padres were looking to acquire a proven closer, and I was thinking about drafting an article on why they shouldn’t. If you know how I feel about how the Padres should approach this offseason, you probably know why. The Padres are unlikely to be a true contender next year, so whether they have a “proven” closer or Luke Gregerson/Ernesto Frieri isn’t all that significant.

It wouldn’t be wise to invest too much, in dollars or prospects, on a relief pitcher. However, if we assume the Padres lost a relatively insignificant player, this deal isn’t all that bad. The Padres will owe Street $7 million in 2012, not a bad price for a solid closer. Further, they don’t have to commit any length or dollars to Street if things don’t work out.

Street’s a very good reliever who will benefit greatly – like any pitcher would – from switching to Petco Park from Coors. Seriously, that’s one end of the spectrum to the other. Street’s stats:

Street Innings ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9
OAK (05-08) 269 2.88 .6 2.6 9.1
COL (09-11) 167.3 3.50 1.2 1.8 9.1

Street was better with Oakland (he also threw more innings/year), but he’s remained effective with the Rockies. In fact, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has actually improved with Colorado. He’s struggled more with the long ball, which has hurt his value, but that should be remedied by a move to Petco.

Street makes the Padres better in 2012, but even if they’re not competitive (very likely), they can use him as a trade chip at the deadline. Closers can attract a lot of attention from contenders with bullpen problems mid-season, and if Street can prove he’s still an asset in the back-end of the pen, he’ll have a number of suitors.

This isn’t a great deal, and it doesn’t really fit into a long-term plan to rebuild. But it also doesn’t sacrifice prospects (hopefully) or a big dollar commitment to improve in the short-term. And it’s hard to blame the Padres for at least attempting to improve the major league club for next season.

Padres trade Wade LeBlanc for John Baker

November 22, 2011 in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 2 Comments

The San Diego Padres have traded LHP Wade LeBlanc to the Miami Marlins for catcher John Baker.

LeBlanc has posted a 4.54 ERA in 293.3 innings for the Padres, spread over the last four seasons. He’s basically been somewhere around replacement level in his time with the Padres.

Baker is a little more interesting. The catcher hasn’t played much since 2009 due to Tommy John surgery late in the 2010 season. A concern certainly has to be Baker’s ability to prevent base stealing, as he wasn’t particularly good at that (19%) before the surgery.

Still, his bat is very good. Offensively, he is right around league-average both by OPS+ (99) and wOBA (.333). He doesn’t have a lot of power and he strikes out enough, but when he puts the ball in play he does pretty good damage (.334 BABiP) and he possesses solid patience (11% walk rate).

For a catcher, that’s perfectly acceptable and he should be a solid backup for Nick Hundley. The Padres will have all three of Baker’s arbitration-eligible years until he becomes a free-agent in 2015.

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