THT fielding stats: Centerfielders

June 10, 2008 in fielding, Sabermetrics with 2 Comments

Intro post right here (with shortstop data) … and thanks to The Hardball Times for the data.

The range seems a bit smaller in center, so I’ll just post the top and bottom five (you can find the full spreadsheet below, if you’re interested):

Top 5
Werth, PHI, +8.2 runs
Byrd, TEX, +6.6
Gonzalez, OAK, +5.7
Davis, OAK, +5
Kapler, MIL, +4.6

Bottom 5
Wells, TOR, -18.2
Sweeney, OAK, -5.6
Dejesus, KC, -4.4
Kemp, LA, -4.1
Edmonds, SD, -4

That’s Edmonds just in San Diego, by the way. With the Cubbies, he’s +2.1 runs in 115 innings. How about some other notables?

Hairston, SD, -2
Gerut, SD, -2.6
Cameron, MIL, -3.7
Jones, LA, +1.7

Here’s everyone: fielding-ratings.xls

You should also be able to see updated shortstop ratings there, under the other tab (I believe). Anyhow, until next time …

Fielding, OPS, and the draft

June 9, 2008 in draft, fielding, links, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

Over at The Book Blog, MGL gives out some early UZR numbers. So far the Padres are at +32 runs, which gives them the best fielding team in the league, by UZR. MGL also lists what he would project them at, based on the players’ track record, and he has the Padres at +10. So they are a good/great fielding team playing a bit over their head. He also lists some individual players at each position — the only Padres that show up are McAnulty (+34, per 150 games) and Edmonds (-38) … edit: and Brian Giles, +35 in right (thanks, Ben B). Of course, there is a lot of “luck” with those two guys (and all these guys, really), as they have played just 30 and 41 games, respectively.

Colin Wyers also posted NL team fielding data from the Hardball Times (RZR, OOZ) at his blog. The Padres are +16 there, good for third in the NL (the Cards are up top at +32). He also has an intro post on fielding at another blog where you can find data for all NL players (these calculations are done the same way I do it).

I think there are a couple of reason why the Padres pitching is overrated, relative to their position players/hitting … Petco and fielding.

***

Justin looks at the correlation between runs and various offensive stats. He concludes:

So, in the end, I’m going to keep using OPS as one of the ways that I judge hitters on this site. I will keep on reporting R/G as well, as it has several other advantages in addition to being more accurate that come into play now and then (especially in terms of easy park factor corrections). But for most purposes, OPS is going to do just fine. Yay.

Yeah, I think OPS is fine for a “quick and dirty” stat. In fact, I often look at it first to get a feel for how a guy is hitting. But in any “serious analysis” I would certainly advise someone to use a more accurate, linear weights type stat.

***

Want more draft coverage? Geoff has the goods at Ducksnorts. Great stuff …

2-1

June 8, 2008 in clutchiness, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

Boy, I can really get used to these 2-1 games. Jack Chesbro vs. Cy Young circa 1904 … every night. Fun stuff.

I’m not saying he’s clutch (really, I don’t think he is/will be, going forward), but Scott Hairston has had a knack for the big hit since becoming a Padre.

You don’t need the numbers to tell you that, but check out his ’07 play log, sorted by WPA. A bunch of huge hits there – six hits of at least .3 WPA. This year, counting tonight’s blast, he’s already had two +.3 WPA hits (both walk off homers). Since the start of 2007, wanna know how many of those hits (.3 WPA or higher) Mr. Clutch himself (Derek Jeter) has had? Two. David Ortiz? Two.

No, I’m not trying to prove anything by pointing out that Scott Hairston has had more “clutch hits” (defined arbitrarily by me, might I add) than a couple of perceived clutch/great hitters. Just showing that he’s has had an abnormal amount of key hits for the Padres over the past few years. In a backwards-looking sense, they’ve had tremendous value. They’ve also been a lot of fun to watch, too.  

Pedro goes tomorrow for the Mets (vs Ledezma). I watched his start vs. SF. According to the SNY gun, he was consistently in the low 90s with the fastball (he was in the mid-to-high 80s last year, iirc). Coming off an injury, I thought that was pretty impressive. Otherwise, I wasn’t overly impressed with his location or his secondary stuff. But he’s still Pedro Martinez … about as smart a pitcher as there is in the game.

2-1, anybody? 

Padman’s draft recap

June 7, 2008 in Ben Davey, draft, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

 By Padman

Well here we go, the Padres drafted 45 players in 42 rounds (they passed in the last 8 rounds).  I’m not going to go through every pick (seems kinda tedious) but I will do the top few, as well as a couple others I feel are important.

Overall, I think the front office did exactly what they wanted… build the offense.  A lot of power up and down the draft with a good amount of speed.  They went after pitchers mainly in the second day, and from the looks of it got a few sleepers.

Draft Grade: B
The only pick I didn’t really like was Dykstra with the 1st pick (I don’t think he’s a bad player I was just really high on a few others).  Also considering that they had the 23rd pick in EVERY round, they did a fairly good job.  They drafted a few HS studs in the mid rounds, but most of them have strong commitments to college.  If the Padres can sign them than this suddenly becomes a lot better (but dont hold your breath).

So lets begin:

Pick #23  Allan Dykstra 1B Wake Forest
First off as I said earlier, I didn’t not like the draft choice, but I think the pick could have been used on 1 of 2 speedy SS or a flame throwing right hander.  But enough of that, congrats to the Phills, Yanks, and Red Sox, for drafting them.  Dykstra probably has the best raw power in all of the draft.  He’s someone whose stats scream 1st round.  (Which is why its hard to really knock the Padres for the pick).   Led the ACC in HR as a freshman and was a Fresh all-american.  At 6-4 the guy is a gigantic 1st baseman similar in size to an Adam Dunn type of hitter (and he has Dunn type power).   He also has a great eye at the plate (hmm … this doesn’t sound like a Padre guy).  He’s set both the Wake Forest season and career walk record and he’s only a junior.  Many scouts think he might be too patient at the plate, but that’s mainly due to him being the only legit hitter in a soft lineup.  He’s the type of hitter that will move quickly through the organization.  As far as where he will start…I think that depends on what the Padres do with Carrasco (current 1B at Fort Wayne, tremendous power, but strikes out A LOT)…my guess is Ft Wayne, but chance of Elsinore.  Oh PS there is a chance he gets moved to LF (has a tremendous arm, just not that great of glove)

Pick #42  Jaff Decker OF (HS)
PMac’s little brother, except this guy is actually good. He played CF in HS but is probably more of a RF.  Has a tremendous arm and could also be a pitcher, but it seems that the FO wants him to hit.  The guy has great power, can hit to all fields, and is a very patient hitter at the plate drawing a lot of walks.  Since hes only 18 he will not climb the minors nearly as fast, BUT he should put up quality numbers throughout the minor leagues and with his power and hitting ability forecasts as a pre-Padre Brian Giles (with an arm in the outfield).

Pick #46 Logan  Forsythe 3B (U of Arkansas)
Can you say Sean Burroughs with speed?  Well, they say Chone Figgins.  This guy hits for a really high average, has a great eye for the strike zone, stole 27 bases last year, right now has doubles power, but the FO sees him developing into a 15-20 HR guy as he gets older.  Great “intangibles” … look for him to start in Eugene this year.

Pick #69 James Darnell 3B (U So Carolina)
Another guy with tremendous power.  Hit 18 HR last year and 19 the year before.  He’s also a 6-2 195lb 3B.  Not a fantastic glove, but is a pretty solid 3B with an above average arm.  He was a preseason 2nd team all american, ranked as a top 25 prospect  entering the season.  Big 3B, with a high average, great power,  and solid defense.  Not a lot of spring in his step, but makes up for it with power.  Umm, unless they move Forsythe to 2B, I’m not quite sure where they put him, but I’m guessing Eugene.

Pick # 101 Blake Tekotte CF (U of Miami)
This is my first surprise pick of the draft.  CF with tremendous speed, great defense, good arm, and pretty good power.  Seems to have a pretty good eye at the plate, and could easily be a 5 tool MLB player.  DePo loves him as a leadoff hitter who will work the count, get on base and be right in the middle of the action.  He’s going to start in Eugene, but don’t be surprised to see him in Fort Wayne and then in Elsinore next year.

Now best of the rest and some picks to keep an eye on (mainly HS players … if they sign)
Cole Figueroa SS U of Florida
Draft eligible sophomore so its going to be a challenge trying to lure him away.  The guy plays tremendous defense, hits for a pretty high average, steals 20 bases, and has good power.  He slipped this far because many think hes going to return to college, but the Padres are hoping to sign him.

Brett Mooneyham, LHP, Buhach Colony HS, CA
I think DePo describes this guy best:

Brett is 6’5″, 215 lbs, throws up to 94 mph and has a plus curveball. Furthermore, Brett’s dad, Bill, was a first round pick in 1980. Sounds pretty good, huh? That’s why Baseball America rates him as one of top 100 prospects in the draft, and many people believe that he is the best left-handed high school pitcher in the country. At this point, though, Brett is planning to attend Stanford in the fall.”

If they can get this guy then wow, but Stanford is a hard school to pass up.  Cross your fingers people.

Pick #23 Nich Conaway RHP (no school)
Was the closer for Oak last year, shoulder surgery in the fall, but now is fine.  Tops out at 97 mph as a reliever and has a power curve.  85 K in 63 innings last year — needless to say, his stuff was good enough to make for the Padres draft him.

Throughout the draft the Padres took a lot of power hitters, a good number of speedy middle infield/CF, and took their normal “strike throwing” pitchers.  Most of them throw high 80s low 90s, a lot of them possess a good curve or change.  A good solid draft — we will see how they will turn out.  This is Christmas day for big baseball fans, and let’s hope we get more hidden gems and gold than coal.

Draft open thread

June 5, 2008 in draft, San Diego Padres with 13 Comments

I’ll be here until about 6 (est) and I’ll try to occasionally update this as the Pads make their picks and the draft unfolds. Padman told me he’s going to try to have a post up on the draft probably tomorrow night. Please feel free to use the comment section as much as you’d like — that’s what this post is here for.

Geoff Young at Ducksnorts has pretty much everything you’d want to know about the draft in his most recent post. If I followed it closely enough, I’d make a “wish list” … anyway, I will say that it will be interesting if Anthony Hewitt falls to #23, although I’d still be surprised if the Padres took him.

Update, 2:07 (est): Karl Ravech gets the first laugh out of me: on Steve Phillips (paraphrased) – “a lot of people didn’t realize you actually played the game, they thought it was just your intelligence.”

3:25: Holy cow. I’m no mechanics expert, but Brett Wallace looks like the most awkward fielder/runner, um, ever. A great hitter, obviously, and that’s why he’s a prospect. Ain’t gonna be sellin’ jeans in St. Louis, though.

3:57: BP’s draft roundtable is a very entertaining read. Goldstein, Smith, a bunch of other BP guys, reader comments/questions, etc.

… Cashner is off the board to the Cubs. I’d still be real happy with taking Hewitt if he’s there; it would be a major change of pace, and if nothing else, a fun guy to follow. That said, I’d still be shocked if they take him …

4:10: Haven’t heard anything, but I think the Mets take Hewitt …

4:12: Nope! Well, here we go. The Padres are up. I honestly have no idea who they’re going to take … and I won’t try to guess again : )

4:38: Well, there it is … Allan Dykstra. Didn’t hear his name much this high, but I actually don’t mind the pick (keeping in mind, I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about). I like the fact that he’s big (6-5, 240 or something) and obviously has a chance to hit for some big time power. Goldstein (for the BP roundtable linked above):

This is surprisingly high. Most saw him as a sup 1st or 2nd rounder. TONS of raw power, not sure where he fits in that organization, but this is defnitely a Grady Fuson type pick.

Couple of Wake Forest numbers from Boyd’s World: Park factor (04-07): 101 — so no major park effects to consider. Strength of schedule: 39 — That’s obviously relatively low when you’re talking about almost 300 teams. Of course, what we really want, when looking at a hitter, is strength of opponents pitching staff, which I don’t have. But it’s a good sign that Wake played good teams, likely making Dykstra’s numbers look better than they already do (relative to other college players).

I want to see his numbers, but, what do you know, I can’t get the link to work on the Wake Forest web site. I hate the setup of college sports sites.

Anyway, fill me in. What are your thoughts on the pick?

4:55: Thanks, Peter Friberg! Dykstra’s numbers:

Fresh: .324/.479/.670 15 HR, 51/32 BB/SO ratio
Soph: .310/.479/.615 18 HR, 57/33 BB/SO ratio
Jr.: .323/.519/.645 16 HR, 62/45 BB/SO ratio

Couple of things before I bolt … I don’t care that he plays 1b and we have Gonzalez and Blanks. By the time he’s ready (2-3 years down the road or so?), so much can happen … if he works out, he’ll find a place on the field or the Padres will find a way to extract value out of him (via trade).

Second thing: I hear a lot of people get upset when a guy is picked where he isn’t expected to go (by BA, BP, Sickels, etc.). If a team makes their selections based on what’s known by the public (i.e., what those guys say), how the heck are they supposed to gain any advantage over the competition? Maybe SD has a proprietary measure that has Dykstra as one of the best college hitters in the draft … or something like that. BA/BP likely isn’t going to know that (and neither are we). Anyway, that’s not to say that we can’t criticize them for a pick because we don’t know everything about the process that went into it … it’s just, well, a little rant from me.

Alright, I’m outta here … headed to the race track … from one crap shoot to another : ) I’ll check back in way later tonight after the dust settles. Have fun with the rest of the draft, everyone!

1:47 am: Well, day 1 is over — Not surprisingly, to me at least, 8 of the 9 picks were college players. The only high schooler, Decker, sounds kind of interesting. Sounds like a good bat, bad field type.

By the way, Paul DePodesta pretty much “live blogged” the draft. Awesome …

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