Changes in the middle infield

December 18, 2010 in contracts, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 5 Comments

As I’ve already mentioned a few times, the San Diego Padres are having a pretty strange off-season. From the Cameron Maybin deal, to trading The Franchise (ya know, Adrian Gonzalez), to now patching together  pretty decent team.

Daniel covered the signing of Orlando Hudson yesterday. I agree with him; Hudson is a nice pick-up, especially on a reasonable two year, $11.5M contract. Some have argued that while Hudson may be a fine acquisition, David Eckstein put up 2 fWAR last season; how much of an improvement will Hudson offer?

1. I doubt that Eckstein was really worth 2 fWAR, because I question that he was six runs above average in the field.

2. Even if Eckstein was worth 2 wins above replacement, he doesn’t project well going forward, both due to his recent past performance and his age. Hudson should offer a pretty nice improvement over David Eckstein v2011.

The Padres also (finally) finalized the trade for SS Jason Bartlett (and a PTBNL), that will send Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, and Cole Figueroa to the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Four players is more than you’d think it’d take to land Bartlett, but none of the four are really key losses. All of them have some chance of contributing at the major league level, but none are guaranteed (or particularly likely).

Russell and Ramos, the two headliners, could turn into decent bullpen options. Gomes has dominated in AA for a couple of seasons, but he’s going to be 26. Figueroa has nice on-base skills for a second basemen, but no pop.

Bartlett improves the Padres in the short-term, plus allows Everth Cabrera to get some much needed seasoning in the minors. The kicker here is of course the PTBNL, plus the fact that Bartlett could be a type-A free agent after the season and could net the Padres a couple of draft picks.

With a couple of nice mid-level moves (the Maybin trade, the Aaron Harang signing, and these two) the Padres suddenly have a chance again. It’s been a strange off-season and it will be interesting to see how it concludes.

San Diego Padres Sign Orlando Hudson

December 17, 2010 in contracts, roster moves, San Diego Padres with 3 Comments

Last year, I wrote that the San Diego Padres could have improved their off-season by signing Orlando Hudson. This year, they actually did so.  After inking Orlando Hudson to a 2-year $11.5MM contract, the Padres have finally found themselves a major league caliber second baseman.

Last season, Hudson was worth 3.1 fWAR, hitting at almost exactly a league average level, while playing quality defense at a middle infield position.

His 2010 season was not a huge deviation from his career numbers which suggest Hudson has been an average hitter and average fielder, and has thus contributed a lot of value to his teams as a second-baseman.

Prior to singing Hudson, the Padres did not have a second baseman (assuming you did not think Eric Patterson was the solution) on the roster, which makes Hudson’s contributions even more meaningful.

As for the value of the deal, Dave Cameron sums it up nicely:

With a going rate of something in the neighborhood of $5 million per win this winter, Hudson would only have to generate +1.1 WAR in 2011 to justify his salary from a market-rate perspective. For comparison, Aaron Hill‘s .291 wOBA and slightly above-average defense last year was worth +1.1 WAR as a full time second baseman. There is a lot of room for Hudson to regress from his 2010 performance and still be a relative bargain, given the prices free agents have been signing for to date.

Signing Hudson has very little downside, and a good amount of upside.  He fills a glaring need for the Padres, at a value rate.

Joaquin Benoit will receive $16.5MM over the next three seasons for the Tigers, and he is a reliever who never been worth more than 2.0 fWAR in his career.  Hudson has exceeded 2.0 fWAR in all but one season starting in 2004.  Who would you rather have?

PTBNL: Eric Patterson

December 16, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, roster moves, San Diego Padres, trades with Comments Off

The San Diego Padres announced today that Eric Patterson will be coming to the club as the player to be named later in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.

Patterson, who is 27 years old has bounced around quite a bit the past few seasons.  He was drafted by the Chicago Cubs in 2004, and reached the majors in 2007.  Patterson was traded to the Oakland Athletics in 2008 as a part of the Rich Harden deal.  Oakland dealt him to Boston last season.

For his career, Patterson has displayed little power (0.353 SLG) and on-base skills (0.299 OBP).  Defensively, he has played second base, and all of the outfield positions, albeit at a below average level at every position (at least according to UZR).

As a major league player, Patterson has been pretty bad, but his minor league record is very solid.

In over 2,500 minor league plate appearances, Patterson has an 0.845 OPS.  1550 of those plate appearances have come in AAA, where Patterson has a 0.363 OBP, and a 0.487 SLG.  Patterson has also displayed good speed, stealing 178 bases in the minor leagues, including a 2009 campaign where he had 43 SB compared to only 6 CS.

In the minors, Patterson played mostly second-base, and rated above average according to total zone (which is probably surprising to Red Sox fans).

For the Padres, Patterson is a nice throw-in to the Gonzalez deal.  The team does not have a second baseman currently on the roster, and Patterson’s minor league track record indicates he might still be a useful major leaguer given the chance (he only has 471 major league plate appearances).

Patterson’s ability to play multiple positions could allow him to fill a utility role on the club, and given the team’s complete lack of depth at the middle infield positions, Patterson may very well find himself starting on the 2011 team.

Feedback wanted: A Padres E-book

December 16, 2010 in blogging with 11 Comments

I have thought for the past few days – and really, much longer – about creating a San Diego Padres E-book that would come out just before the season in March. It would be sort of a review of the past season and a preview of next season – common form for many current team annuals. It would also include comprehensive analysis of free agent transactions, trades, prospects, front office decision-making, the ownership, sabermetrics, and so on. Obviously, it would be a huge project.

I am wondering, from you guys, what do you think? Is it a good idea? Would you be interesting in purchasing it for, say, $10-15? Would others you know be interested?

I definitely don’t want to get rich off of it, but it could be an ideal opportunity to try something new, do something that I enjoy, and make a little extra money for college.

I’d love to hear any type of feedback you may have.

Jason Bartlett and the age of Twitter

December 11, 2010 in Myron Logan, rumors, San Diego Padres, trades with 10 Comments

The San Diego Padres have traded for Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett. The deal is official, pending physicals. The deal should be completed soon. The trade is off. For now.

Interestingly, the far less significant (pending) deal for Jason Bartlett is shaping up much the same way the Adrian Gonzalez trade did. On – On, sorta – Off, maybe – Probably on. We’ll see how it concludes.

Maybe it just happens that both of these trades, for whatever reasons, were particularly strange in their development and completion. Or maybe writers are getting a little twitter-happy, jumping the gun and trying to be the first to report any potential breaking news.

I don’t know. It certainly is a bit frustrating for anyone trying to report on the Padres. The latest report I have seen in this one, saying the trade will likely still go through, but that the Rays are re-evaluating one of the pitchers included in the deal after his physical.

The Padres are having an interesting off-season, hovering somewhere around a complete rebuild and fielding a somewhat competitive team while still building for the future. Bartlett is a nice player, an average-ish player at short who had a breakout year in 2009 surrounded by mostly mediocrity.

We’ll have more on the trade, if and when it becomes official. For now, I don’t want to fall into the trap of evaluating something that never happens.

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