Do Padres Outfielders Have a Higher UZR at Home Than Away?

December 8, 2010 in Daniel Gettinger, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 8 Comments

In Myron’s post about the Los Angeles Dodgers signing Tony Gwynn Jr., he speculated that Gwynn’s UZR numbers may have been inflated by Petco Park; that is, the UZR park adjustment for Petco may be a bit off.

In the comments, “B-Real” followed up by asking:

I am an ignorant statistician, so forgive me if this is stupid, but couldn’t you simply compare Gwynn’s UZR at Petco vs. his UZR at away games?

Because single-season UZR is subject to sample size issues, I am not sure we can simply compare Gwynn’s UZR at Petco vs. his UZR at away games, but we might be able to compare the entire San Diego Padres outfield at home vs. away.

Using the data available at Fangraphs, I compared the San Diego Padres UZR total at home vs. away for the 2010 and the 2009 seasons.  The results are presented in the table below:

Year

Home

Away

2009

10.4

-7.7

2010

14.6

3.8

Total

25

-3.9

According to UZR, the Padres played very good defense in the outfield at home over the past two seasons, but fielded at a below average rate on the road.  The trend held for both 2010 and 2009.

As for Gwynn Jr.–Over the past 2 seasons he had a 15.4 home UZR and a 7.8 road UZR.

After an initial glance, it seems pretty conclusive–there must be something to the belief that Petco inflates outfield defensive statistics (even after some park adjustment).  But I would caution against jumping to conclusions too quickly.  Perhaps it is the case that most outfielders field better at home than on the road. Perhaps they know the field better, and therefore are in better positions to field various balls.

Although I did not have the time to run through this with every team, I did decide to pick two teams at random and see if their outfield UZR at home was significantly different from their outfield UZR on the road.

In 2010, the Chicago Cubs outfielders had a 4.9 UZR at home, compared to 4.3 on the road–not noticeably different.  Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals had a 7.3 home outfield UZR, compared to -11.5 away–a difference similar to the Padres.  A 2-team study proved inconclusive.

Before we can conclusive state that the Padres outfielders are overvalued by UZR because of their home-park, a little more research needs to be done.  We need to first check that outfielders in general do not field better at home than on the road.  If home/road splits do not exist elsewhere, then it is likely that the Padres outfield defense is somewhat overrated according to UZR.

Gwynn Jr. a Dodger

December 8, 2010 in contracts, fielding, Myron Logan, other teams, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

Tony Gwynn Jr. recently signed a one year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers for just under $700k.

The deal is being labeled as a steal for LA by smart folks around the blogosphere. While I agree that, in this market, it’s definitely a nice pick-up to add Gwynn Jr. for under a million bucks, I’m not sure it’s that great of a deal.

Gwynn Jr. had a decent offensive year in 2009, posting a .311 wOBA. However, last season in 339 PAs he was dreadful, hitting .204/.304/.287 (.276 wOBA). However, in those two seasons, he posted WAR values, courtesy of FanGraphs, of 2.4 and 1.7 respectively.

That value is largely due to his centerfield defense, which according to UZR says that he was 18 runs above average in 207 games in center, and 23 runs above average in 218 total games in the outfield with the Padres.

We know that he *probably* wasn’t really that good, due simply to regression to the mean – the fact that, if he played another 218 games under the same conditions, he would likely rate closer to average.

But that is true with all extreme fielding performance. The question I’m more interested in is if Gwynn Jr. is even close to that good defensively. There’s a well known theory (or fact) that it’s harder to hit in Petco because of the size and layout of the park and the heavy marine air. Well, if that is true for hitters, wouldn’t the opposite be true for fielders? The heavy air will, in theory, hold would-be doubles or home runs in the air just long enough to make somewhat routine catches look like great ones.

While some defensive metrics (like UZR) have build-in park adjustments, I’m just not sure how much I trust the numbers, given all the speculation about potential biases in the data that may impact the final calculations – before we even consider the park effects.

While it may look like I’m ripping Gwynn’s defense *after* he leaves for the Dodgers, as I’ve touted his fielding ability numerous times here in the past, it’s more a realization that picking up players solely (or mostly) because of their impressive fielding stats can be a dangerous move, much more so than picking up a solid hitter with suspect fielding numbers.

In the end, it’s still a good move for the Dodgers, as $700K isn’t going to kill them, even if Gwynn Jr. – worst case – becomes a defensive liability in center. More than likely, he’s a little above average in the field, quite a bit below with the bat, and he’ll be a solid enough pick-up for LA.

For the Padres, losing Gwynn Jr. could have stung a bit if they were planning to compete in 2011, but with the current state of transition, losing a fringe guy like Gwynn Jr. just isn’t that significant.*

*That’s without considering the fact that you have to see “Gwynn” on the back of a Dodgers jersey again.

Is Jayson Werth’s new deal *that* bad?

December 7, 2010 in contracts, Myron Logan, other teams with 4 Comments

The Washington Nationals shook the baseball world on Sunday by signing Jayson Werth to a seven year, $126 million deal.

Werth is a very good player, a right fielder who does a little bit of everything. He’s coming off his best season yet, hitting .296/.388/.532 with the Phillies. That said, Werth is far from a premium talent, and perhaps more importantly he’s going to be 32 years old next season.

Here’s a basic forecast for Werth:

Year Werth’s age Werth’s WAR $/WAR Salary
2011 32 4.5 $4.5 $20.3
2012 33 4.0 5 20
2013 34 3.5 5.5 19.3
2014 35 2.8 6.0 16.8
2015 36 2.1 6.5 13.7
2016 37 1.4 7.0 9.8
2017 38 .7 7.5 5.3

That’s a total of $105M over the seven years, quite a bit under Werth’s actual salary of $126M over that time.

It looks like a might be situation where the Nats will be fine for a few years, but Werth becomes a burden later in the contract. If the Nationals envision themselves competing in a couple of years, with Strasburg, Harper, and company, and Werth becomes a key part of their first playoff run, the deal may end up being a good one – at least a defensible one.

In the end, it looks like a bad deal, though not a historical bad one. If Werth were a few years younger, it might be a perfectly fair contract, but guaranteeing an aging slugger with Werth’s profile $18M per for seven years probably isn’t the best use of resources, especially for a team in Washington’s situation.

*The chart above is merely one simplistic implementation of the numbers, and should not be taken too seriously.

Gonzalez out, Harang in

December 7, 2010 in contracts, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

If Aaron Harang was looking for a little publicity for signing with San Diego Padres, he chose the wrong time to make his decision. Rumors of the Harang deal broke on Friday night, just as the Adrian Gonzalez-to-Boston trade rumors heated up. Harang’s deal was officially announced on Monday, the same day the The Franchise was officially dealt to Boston.

Harang struggled last year, posting a 5.32 ERA in 112 innings. In fact, he’s been on a three year rough patch after putting together three excellent years from 2005 through 2007. Still, he’s posted decent enough peripherals of late, and the areas where he struggles most (home runs and BABiP) should be helped by Petco.

Admittedly, adding Harang looks a lot better on a team ready to compete than on one that’s just traded away its superstar in a likely forfeit of the upcoming season. That said, $3.5 million for Harang’s services (plus a mutual option), especially in a market where Jayson Werth is getting $18M per, is never a bad thing.

Assuming $4.5M per marginal win, the Padres are paying Harang like he’s a .8 WAR player. Here are Harang’s WAR totals for the past three seasons, via FanGraphs and Baseball Reference:

Year fWAR rWAR
2008 1.7 2.0
2009 2.4 .7
2010 .9 -1.2

While Harang should definitely be in the decline phase of his career, remember that pre-2008 he was very good (4-5 WAR per season) and that he should regress back toward his career averages in 2011.

Projecting Harang anywhere from .5 to 2 WAR is probably feasible, depending on what stats you’re using and how complex you’re getting with it. Point is, for a free agent signing, it’s a nice, probably under-market value deal, and Harang should help add some stability to a rather shaky rotation.

Adrian Gonzalez trade links

December 6, 2010 in Adrian Gonzalez, links, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, trades with 1 Comment

Your one-stop shop for everyone’s opinion on the big trade:

Padres sites Red Sox sites Elsewhere
Ducksnorts Red Sox Beacon FanGraphs, FG #2
Gaslamp Ball Over The Monster Baseball Analysts
The Sacrifice Bunt The Joy of Sox Hardball Talk
Friarhood Fire Brand of the AL  
Union Tribune Sox Therapy  
Padres.com    

Let me know if you have any more good ones in the comments.

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