That other Decker

January 30, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

If all baseball articles posted online followed Twitter’s hashtag format, then #prospects would be a Worldwide Trend right now.

Analysts everywhere are crafting their top lists and blowing up websites and blogs. Books are lining store shelves and arriving in mailboxes to the collective glee of their recipients. Alexander Pope’s famous phrase, “Hope springs eternal…” is becoming more and more a reality for many organizations, San Diego in particular.

So, let’s continue in this vein.

In previous FF articles, I’ve looked at some prospects you may not have heard about. Guys like Connor Powers and Matt Jackson who, with another solid season, could crack the prospect list in a deep system. For this piece, I’m going to discuss Decker, a prospect many will be familiar with. No…not Jaff Decker. That other Decker: Cody Decker.

Decker was drafted in 2009 during the 22nd round out of UCLA. Over 191 games with the Bruins, Decker batted .288 with 47 HRs, 28 2Bs, and 153 RBI. His 21 HRs during the 2009 season led the Pac-10. On the glovework side, in 653 chances at 1B, Decker made just three errors, good for a .995 FLD%.

His debut in professional ball was worth noticing. In 198 ABs with the AZL Padres (Rookie), Decker hit: .354/.421/.717 (1.138 OPS…gulp). He was subsequently called up to Ft. Wayne (Low-A) at season’s end but only managed 18 ABs. For the 2010 season, the organization opted for Decker to skip Low-A, and the move paid off. In 507 ABs at High-A Lake Elsinore, Decker hit: .270/.352/.513 (.865 OPS). He clubbed 28 homers and  and knocked in 90 RBI. He also found the two-bag out of the box an impressive 35 times. Scouts and analysts alike were starting to take notice, as Decker found his way on many of the top lists.

So, why is he glaringly absent on this year’s lists? Good question.

This past season, Decker moved up to Double-A San Antonio. He only managed 177 ABs, hitting .237/.289/.525 (.815 OPS). The lack of at bats can be attributed to a devastating stay on the disabled list. Decker sustained a third degree ankle sprain while trying to beat out a grounder at first. The injury might as well have been a broken ankle, as Decker went on the DL on May 22, 2011 and wasn’t reinstated until August 23. Decker came back strong, however, including an impressive run in the playoffs where his Missions finished as Texas League Champions. In seven games, he went 9-25 (.360) with three homers and three doubles, when the games mattered most.

Obviously, missing the meat of the season, 2011 really shouldn’t count in the books as far as his status is concerned, but prospect analysis is very much a “what have you done for me lately” perspective. Myron pointed this out very astutely in the case of Simon Castro. His elite status was stripped away pretty quickly. In Decker’s case, one season of injury has unfairly (in my opinion) taken him off the radar as well.

Fangraphs’ advanced  info on Decker is also worth studying. Granted, minor league data isn’t as rich as major league data, but some of the basic advanced stats work just fine. It’s the predicting major league success from minor league numbers part that gets tricky. I’m currently working on a formula that will determine major league success based on minor league numbers. However, since that’s not complete just yet, I’ll speculate on Decker here shortly.

During his Rookie season in 2009, Decker’s BB% was a nice 8.3%. His K% sat at 18.4%. But the ISO is really interesting: .364. For some context, at the MLB level, Jose Bautista’s ISO in 2010 was the league best at .357. Definitely not a one-to-one translation, but the reference gives you some idea. In Decker’s case: fantastic pop, excellent discipline, and striking out around league average. I’ll take that.

During Decker’s 2010 campaign in High-A, he increased his BB% to 10.3. Unfortunately his K% also increased, in this case to 23.2. For a quasi-context, MLB average for BB% in 2010 was 8.0% and for K% it was 20.7%. The ISO, however, remained impressive at a .243 clip. Even during his limited Double-A season, his ISO totaled .288. Granted, the BB% dropped (5.8) and the K% increased (31.1), but a right-handed power threat will always have a spot on San Diego’s shopping list.

The question is, where will he play? Another good question. Glad I asked.

The bulk of his time has been spent at 1B. Unfortunately for Decker, though, 5’11” and 220 LBS doesn’t exactly profile well for an MLB first baseman. Don’t let the size factor prohibit consideration for the position, however. He as a total of 158 games at first and has committed only 13 errors in 1,467 chances, good for an impressive .991 FLD%. Further complicating the issue for Decker, though, is the trade for Yonder Alonso.  Decker is a year older and will have to watch Alonso completely fall on his face before he gets consideration. Decker’s been run out to left field and third base but only for a grand total of one game each.  He saw a total of seven games in left in his college career. In college, he was primarily a DH, so from my perspective, Decker might be better served on an AL team that can see him split time between first base and DH.

I’d hate to see San Diego lose a player like Decker, but I think, for his sake, a change to an AL organization would give him two avenues to pursue a big league career because his bat projects to play at this point. If he stays in San Diego, he becomes another slugger looking for a home behind the likes of: Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Matt Clark. He’ll likely start the season back in Double-A San Antonio to show that he can still swing it. If healthy, there’s no reason he couldn’t produce:  .280/.370/.560, if not even better.

What happens from there will be determined by what happens to Guzman and Alonso at the big league level and Matt Clark in Triple-A. Though, Clark can play a respectable outfield. But the way the club fell all over themselves for Alonso, he’s going to have every chance in the world to be successful. It’s a tough outlook from a San Diego roster standpoint, but baseball is always filled with opportunities.

I do believe, that big league talent finds the big leagues, and I see Decker as possessing that talent. It’s simply a matter of when and where he gets his shot.

Yonder Alonso loves Petco

January 28, 2012 in Myron Logan, park effects, San Diego Padres, Yonder Alonso with 8 Comments

Over at the U-T, Bill Center has an article on Yonder Alonso, with a lot of quotes from the new San Diego Padres first basemen:

“A lot of left-handed hitters and first basemen are thinking home runs,” Alonso continued. “That’s not the type of left-handed hitter I am.

“When I look at Petco Park, I don’t see how far away the fences are. I see a lot of grass. I feel like this ballpark likes the kind of hitter I am.”

It’s certainly refreshing to see Alonso embracing his new digs, regardless of how he’ll feel come June. He goes on:

“The fences are closer in Cincinnati,” reasoned Alonso. “The outfielders are packed into a smaller space. A lot of balls in the gaps get caught. There isn’t nearly as much grass in Cincinnati as there is here.”

He’s right, there’s more green in Petco’s outfield than Great American Ballpark’s. However, it’s unclear whether line-drive hitter’s can neutralize (even to a degree) Petco’s ability to suppress offense.

Sure, a screaming liner that barely gets off the ground will play anywhere. The real question, though, is the gap line-drive that should fall for a double in most parks. In Petco, that ball has a tendency to hang up in the air and gently fall into the glove of a waiting outfielder. Think marine layer.

Petco always ranks at (or near) the bottom of the league in its ability to prevent not only runs, but also doubles. According to research at Beyond the Boxscore, here are the five toughest hitter’s parks from 2006-2010:

Team Runs PF 2B/BIP HR/BIP
SD .91 .90 .92
SEA .96 .98 .95
NYN .96 .97 .95
OAK .96 .97 .93
TB .97 .96 1.00

Note that these PFs include away games, so to truly isolate the Petco effect you would double these figures (Petco suppresses doubles by 20 percent, for example).

You can see that Petco is clearly the best all-around pitcher’s park in the league. Interestingly, though, there’s a larger discrepancy between Petco and the other pitcher’s parks for doubles per ball in play than HR/BIP. In fact, no team’s home park comes close to Petco in stifling doubles, which while not as devastating as a home run are certainly a more frequent event.

Further, Petco actually increases strikeouts more than any other park. It’s a deadly combination that’s earned Petco its deserved reputation as Killer of All Things Offense. It’s important to note, however, that it doesn’t just eat up home runs.

Alonso may still be a better fit for Petco than Rizzo, but he won’t be able to escape its overall negative impact on offense.

THT Forecasts

January 26, 2012 in blogging, Myron Logan, projections, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

By now, you probably know I write a bi-weekly article for The Hardball Times. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a great opportunity to write for a site with a rich history of producing awesome content.

This year I have a chance to write the San Diego Padres player comments for THT Forecasts, which you should probably buy. I’m taking over the duties from the venerable Geoff Young, so I have my work cut out for me.

It’s a bit of a challenge distilling a player’s future outlook down to a paragraph or two, but it’s a challenge I wouldn’t dare pass up. I should have comments for a good 40 players or so, including a number of prospects. The player comments won’t be available until closer to spring training, but the 2012 projections are already updated and certainly worth the price. The comments are just an added bonus.

Along with the 2012 projections, you also get a long-term (six year) forecast for every player, various leaderboards and options to sort the projections, comments from past seasons, and updated in-season projections. If you’re a fantasy player, these are right up your alley.

For more info about THT Forecasts, check here and here.

The next Erubiel Durazo

January 25, 2012 in Myron Logan, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres, scouting, Yonder Alonso with 3 Comments

Generally, I’m hesitant to compare prospects to established major leaguers. There are so many subtle differences in player skill-sets that, without exhaustive research, I’m never all that comfortable with the comparisons.

Yonder Alonso = Erubiel Durazo

After watching some video of Yonder Alonso, though, (notably the embedded one below from Scouting the Sally) I can’t help but think Erubiel Durazo.

At first, you might think that comparing a highly-touted first base prospect to Erubiel Durazo is my way of saying that I’m not overly high on Alonso, but that isn’t necessarily true. Upon reaching the majors at age 25, Durazo raked, and he didn’t stop until his major league career was over seven years later.

Note Durazo’s debut 1999 and Alonso’s 2011 in Cincinnati:

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
Durazo 185 .329 .422 .594 153
Alonso 98 .330 .398 .545 154

Pretty similar starts, though I certainly don’t mean to imply that I’m comparing these two players based on such a small amount of performance data. As mentioned, Alonso’s swing and movements simply remind me of Durazo, and it conveniently fits the narrative that the numbers are very similar.

Physically, they are similar too. Durazo is listed at 6’3’’, 240 on Baseball-Reference. Alonso: 6’2’’, 240. Both left-handed hitters. Durazo ended up hitting .281/.381/.487 in his major league career, split between Arizona and Oakland. Alonso has posted inferior numbers so far in his career (.292/.370/.466) – and that’s in the minor leagues.

Durazo played in Mexico prior to the majors and only spent part of one season in the minors before debuting in Arizona, so we can’t really compare minor league stats. He hit .404/.489/.703 that year in Double-A and Triple-A.

In the field, Durazo provided limited defensive value at first (he was traded to Oakland and became a DH) and he wasn’t particularly fast or athletic. The scouting reports on Alonso are similar. He’s not out there for his defense or base running.

Scouting or performance

Let’s face it, Alonso’s scouting reputation far exceeds his actual performance thus far. Based on the numbers, Clay Davenport* projects Alonso as a .260/.335/.400 hitter in his prime. That isn’t bad, especially in Petco, but it isn’t really what we are expecting out of the Padres new first basemen.

*Davenport adjusts raw minor league statistics for league, age, park effects, and various other factors to get a better estimate of the player’s major league potential.

Yonder Alonso = Adrian Gonzalez

Finishing where we started, PECOTA currently lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso’s number one comparable player. Number two: Jeff Clement.

Interestingly enough, there might be something to the Alonso-Gonzalez comp. Though Gonzalez was always young(er) for his league, both players put up underwhelming minor league statistics (but were highly-rated amongst scouts). Gonzalez, of course, blossomed into the player we had the pleasure of watching in San Diego for five seasons.

Then again, there is probably something to the Alonso-Clement comp, too.

As you know, there’s a large degree of uncertainty in player evaluation, especially prospects. Here’s hoping Alonso turns out more like Gonzalez than Clement. But I’ll settle for Durazo.

Greg Maddux or Kevin Slowey?

January 24, 2012 in prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 4 Comments

Recently, I found myself pondering and age old mystery: Do squirrels fart? I know….profound, right? Naturally, I then started to wonder if control artist pitchers would be any better at playing darts than pitchers with ordinary or no control, another one of life’s great mysteries. You can temper your enthusiasm as this article will not answer those mysteries. Some of you may be scratching your heads right about now, but I promise to tie it all together.

The recent trade of Kevin Slowey got me to thinking about high control pitchers. Yes, Kevin Slowey was traded again. Maddux and Slowey represent two of baseball’s best when it comes to not issuing walks. The Padres have two players almost major league ready that have very similar control profiles. Robbie Erlin and Joseph Wieland were acquired, as many of you know, from the Texas Rangers for Mike Adams before the 2011 trade deadline. Each has not disappointed since joining the Padres organization. Here are the career, to this point, minor league numbers for Maddux, Slowey, Erlin, and Wieland:

         ERA         H/9       BB/9         K/9
Greg Maddux

2.86

7.9

2.7

5.7
Kevin Slowey

2.13

6.8

1.3

8.6
Robbie Erlin

2.61

7.4

1.2

9.7
Joe Wieland

3.28

8.8

1.6

8.3

My first thought was… wow! Shouldn’t it have been Slowey with the great career? Interestingly, I came across an old Cubs scouting report on Greg Maddux. The biggest concern with Maddux was his control and his physical stature. Having read scouting reports on Robbie Erlin, he has many similarities to Maddux. Erlin has a very similar frame and throws about the same fastball speed as Maddux. Of course, Erlin is a lefty and has already shown great control prior to making the big leagues.

Wieland happens to be about the same physique as Slowey. Scouts seem to be very impressed with the control, command, pitch sequencing, and baseball aptitude of both Erlin and Wieland. Of course, the same could have been said about Slowey. Don’t get me wrong, Slowey is a legit MLB starting pitcher; but, clearly he is back-of-the-rotation filler.

Forrest Gump would probably suggest prospects are like a box of chocolates. I can’t help but wonder what the Padres have in Erlin and Wieland. Do they have a squirrels fart or a bull’s-eye?

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