On the Road with Madfriars – Fort Wayne

June 2, 2010 in Ben Davey, interviews, prospects, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

Denis Savage is the publisher of MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres’ minor league system. Along with John Conniff they both visit the various affiliates throughout the season. We caught up with Denis for one of their first trips of the year to get his impressions on a team that this year resembles a T-ball team because of their youth; the Fort Wayne TinCaps of the low-A Midwest League.

1) How much of a concern is Jonathan Galvez’s defense? He committed his 15th error in only the second week of May and from listening to games it doesn’t seem like there is much improvement. Is there any chance they move him to second sooner rather than later?

Denis Savage: No way they move him to second base right now. Obviously, they will get him some reps over there, as they have with all of their shortstop prospects, but his position remains at short. Watching him play, you can see the grace in his movements. He really is fun to watch and has grown recently. Impopssible throws he tried early in the year are now being held. It is part of the process with Galvez. He has a penchant for being flashy but is really learning his own limitations and growing from that. Most of the errors are throwing errors. He understands he rushes his throws and is working towards slowing the game down. It isn’t as big a concern as one might believe.

2) The three Dominican starters, Edison Rincon, Rymer Liriano, and Galvez have all struggled immensely offensively this season. While the season is still early, are these young hitters just pressing as they enter their first full professional season? If not is there something mechanically different with their swings, or are they just being overmatched?

Denis Savage: Believe it or not, this was expected. It would be easy to say they are pressing, but the reality is that they are young players experiencing cold weather for the first time. The average temperature in Fort Wayne during the month of April was 56.5 degrees. At night, they saw 10 days where the temperature was in the 30s. By contrast, the average low in the Dominican Republic is 73 degrees in April. Being a New Jersey native, I could handle this. Now that I have been in San Diego for 10 years, I am not so sure. My hands would be like ice. Gripping the bat would be only because it might warm me up. Each time I swung, I would fear getting sawed off because my hands would go from shaking to rattling. John is more adept at swinging in the cold now; John’s problem is he can only hit a ball thrown by a third grader, underhand.

Now, pressing may actually come from this as the weather warms. If they create bad habits because of the lack of success, than your assessment later in the year will be more accurate. As of now, all three are on the right path. Rincon is still a pure hitter. Galvez is prone to having mental lapses. Liriano still susceptible to the off-speed. They have growing to do and expect the second half to prove they are capable of playing at this level.

3) With Donovan Tate, Keyvius Sampson, and James Needy all starting the year in extended Everett Williams is the only high school draftee to make it to Fort Wayne. With all eyes on him to represent the new “approach” to drafting, how has Williams looked both offensively and defensively? Is there a reason why he has only 3 stolen base attempts all season?

Denis Savage: His offense has come a long way since I last saw him. He looks like he has a clearer understanding of his own strike zone. He swings too hard at times but this kid has a feel for hitting that will only improve over time. He has natural power and smokes balls that he hits. It is pretty rare to see weak contact. And he has become a battler in working the count of late. That bodes well for his future, as his baseball acumen has made great strides in a short amount of time.

His defense was, in a word, horrific. I was honestly shocked at how bad his routes are. Remember the kid who was taken last in softball and thrown out in left field, praying no one would hit the ball to him (sorry if this was you or John Conniff) – Williams fits this description. He gave up on balls out there – got turned around several times and has a long way to go before I believe he can play a capable center field. It was the most surprising thing I saw during my time in Fort Wayne. The good news is I expect him to get a lot better. Heck, there is really no other way to go but up.

4) For the past two years the TinCaps have been blessed with an 8th and 9th inning tandem of Jackson Quezada and Bryan Oland in 2008 and Alexis Lara and Brad Brach in 2009. Unfortunately this year the bullpen looks like a hot mess. The TinCaps have used twelve different relievers already in the season, and while most of the ERA’s are respectable the TinCaps went through a five game span earlier when they blew four saves. Is there any consistency beginning to form with the back of the bullpen? If so what guys should we keep an eye on? Rafael Arias?

Denis Savage: Well, everyone should keep an eye on Arias, but he may miss the rest of the year after experiencing shoulder and elbow pain. The bullpen in Fort Wayne does have a bunch of guys who are transitioning from starting roles. That is a challenge for some. Having said that, Jeff Ibarra and Nick Schumacher deserve a look. Ibarra has a wicked slider but needs to fill out and return to health from a concussion. Schumacher has a tremendous cutter but his fastball isn’t mid-90s so his command must be on. Daniel Sarria is interesting but appears to be groomed for more of a starting role since he has as many as six pitches at his disposal. He is a backwards pitcher. I actually believe Nick Greenwood has a chance to live a long life in the majors as a lefty reliever, although he is starting today. Miles Mikolas has a new arm slot that hides the ball better and a great curveball. His fastball velocity needs to return.

5) Pitcher Dexter Carter was voted one of the Top 20 prospects in the Sally League last year. Unfortunately after the trade to the Padres he was more suspect than prospect. This year his numbers have been better, but still nowhere near the numbers that one would expect from a top prospect. Is there any reason to explain the differences in stats? Is Dexter Carter a suspect or a prospect?

Denis Savage: I saw Carter for the first time in instructs and came away thinking there is something there. I liked his breaking ball and his fastball has movement. I thought the changeup needed quite a bit of work. Carter said he has committed to throwing it and the changeup is now his best pitch.

One thing that is interesting: a lot of scouts I have spoken to say the difference in the quality between the Sally League and the Midwest League is huge. They all said it was like going from short-season to Low-A – that big of a jump. It surprised me.

Today, Carter’s biggest problem is location. He has the pitches to be successful but spotting them well has been an issue. He will also nibble rather than pitching to contact. Mechanically, he does not get a very good downhill plane, despite his size. He has this cross-body motion that he is trying to eliminate and falls off to the third base side. That messes with his command.

The second half of this season will tell us the real answer. Has he learned and adapted? He has some mental hurdles to jump over, as he is his hardest critic. It is a blessing and a curse. You have to be realistic. He has such high expectations that when he fails to reach them, it can continue to affect him into his next start. He must mature in that area.

Idle thoughts: Fastball velocity

June 2, 2010 in Myron Logan, pitchf/x, Sabermetrics, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

The general consensus is that a four-seam fastball is thrown with less movement and more velocity than a two-seamer. Check the San Diego Padres rotation, using 2010 PITCHf/x data from FanGraphs:

Pitcher Four-seam MPH Two-seam MPH
Garland 88.8 89.4
Latos 93.5 92.8
LeBlanc 86.4 82.8
Correia 89.9 89.5
Richard 91.4 91.3

Yeah, check that rotation. Prior to looking up the data, my theory was that the four non-Clayton Richard (since we’ve already looked into the data on him) Padres starters would have four-seam fastballs that registered a few MPH faster than their two-seamers. Instead, we see not only Richard averaging the same velocity with each pitch, but also Garland (a faster two-seamer, in fact), Correia, and Latos (within one MPH). LeBlanc, the only one who has a clear difference between the two pitches, uses his two-seamer sparingly (less than 2% of the time).

What gives? Well, we have (at least) three possible explanations:

  1. The Padres employ a staff that just so happens to throw both of their fastballs (ignoring the cutter, for now) at similar speeds. Perhaps they just happen to be on the same staff together or maybe it has something to do with pitching coach Darren Balsley or the Padres organization in general.
  2. We are again encountering problems in classification, by Gameday, and are not witnessing real differences in the two pitches, rather difficulties in properly classifying them.
  3. I’m crazy, and four-seamers and two-seamers are generally thrown at the same speed.

I think we can rule out choice three, as Dave Allen says here that four-seamers are indeed thrown faster — “about 1.5 mph faster than two-seam fastballs and 3.5 mph faster than cutters.”

My guess is that it is some combination between one and two. But, frankly, I have no idea what the correct answer is and whether or not it is significant. Any thoughts?

Looking For New Contributors

May 31, 2010 in blogging with Comments Off

We are always looking for ways to improve the site.  Perhaps the most obvious way to do that is to upgrade the content.

With that in mind, we would love to add some new contributors to the mix.  We are open to adding people on either a “guest post,” arrangement or a more permanent basis.

We do not care if you have lots of blogging experience, or no blogging experience.  We just want to add more quality content.

If you have a desire to contribute to Friar Forecast in any capacity, please contact me by sending an email via the “contact” button on the top menu.

Draft always critical for Padres

May 31, 2010 in contracts, draft, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, scouting with 4 Comments

Though the rule 4 amateur draft may not receive as much national publicity as, say, the NFL variety, its importance is certainly understood in baseball circles. In an age where massive payroll disparities exist between franchises, the easiest way for financially-challenged teams – like the San Diego Padres — to compete is to out-draft, and out-develop, the big spenders.

Developing home grown talent is vital because a players first six years are spent under team control, at a tremendously discounted rate. Let us take, for example, an average player and estimate how much surplus value he’ll accrue in his first six years under team-control:

Year WAR Est. Salary FA Salary Surplus Value
2012 2 WAR $.4M $9M $8.6M
2013 2 $.5M $10M $9.5M
2014 2 $.6M $11M $10.4M
2015 2 $4.8M $12M $7.2M
2016 2 $7.8M $13M $5.2M
2017 2 $11.2M $14M $2.8M
Total 12 $25.3M $69M $43.7

To clarify, we have an average (2 WAR) player. His Free Agent salary is estimated by multiplying his WAR by the marginal value of a win (~$4.5M in 2012 and escalating $.5M each year). His actual salary is estimated by near-minimum totals for his first three years, and then using the 40%-60%-80% scale, which models how much arbitration-eligible players are paid, when compared to their FA value.

So, if a team can draft and develop an average player, not at all a superstar, it is looking at $40+ million in surplus value over the players first six years – in other words, a tremendous asset to the organization. This is a player that will provide three years of average play for peanuts, and then another three years of average play at 60% of his market value. Overall, this club gets $69 million worth of production for $25.3 million. Add in a signing bonus, minor league salaries, and some developmental fees, and you’re still looking at a great value.

If a team can draft a star player like Evan Longoria, well, it is that much better off. Longoria has already netted the Rays some $50+ million in surplus value in his first two seasons. The Rays went on to sign Longoria to an extension that could be worth $44 million over nine years. They have their cornerstone player locked up at a very reasonable price, thanks to the draft and MLB’s salary dynamics.

Dollars and sense

The draft might sound perfect for its efforts in leveling the playing field between big market and small market franchises. That is its intent, but there is at least one small problem. There is no slot-requirement, and some players that may be top talents are bypassed by small market teams because of signability issues – teams are concerned that, after drafting the player, they won’t be able to sign him to a deal.

A good example is the 2007 draft. Back in the infancy of this blog, as Rick Porcello continued to go unselected (due to aforementioned $ concerns, not talent) , I was hoping the Padres would pick him at #23. The Padres passed, taking Nick Schmidt, who signed at estimated slot money — $1.26 million. Porcello fell into the hands of the Tigers five picks later, who signed for $3.58 million — $2.4 million above slot-recommendation.

Of course, I understood that the Padres were unlikely to take Porcello. After all, they weren’t the only team that passed on him, and they didn’t exactly have that kind of money to throw at a prep pitcher – even, a very good one. However, my theory went that, yes, they would be spending a few million dollars more than desired, but the potential value Porcello could provide later on would be well worth it.

Porcello debuted with the Tigers last year and, conveniently for this article, delivered a league-average season (1.9 WAR). He was worth approximately $8 million in surplus value. He has struggled a bit this season, but his peripheral numbers actually look fine (sans the K-rate), and the Tigers have a solid pitcher locked up under team-control.

It doesn’t work like that every time, kid

The draft is an inherently risky process. Trying to evaluate young players and project what they will become in four or five years is both art and science – and a lot of headaches. Sure, there’s a correlation between draft slot and WAR, but it isn’t a great one. There are no-brainers (A-Rod, Longoria, Strasburg), but there are also countless busts (ie, no-brainers that didn’t work out). The obligatory Matt Bush mentioned comes now.

The Padres may very well have thrown $3.6 million Rich Porcello’s way, if they knew exactly how he was going to develop. But, perhaps their analysis concluded that there was, maybe, a 40% or 50% chance that he wouldn’t give them any MLB value. In the end, maybe he was too risky. Nobody wants $3.6 million to go to waste, especially when there are plenty of other attractive options to choose from.

The draft is critical for all teams. But if the Padres – and other small-mid-level market teams – want to compete, it is almost essential that they draft and develop well. Producing home grown players would give the Padres a (cheap) core to build around, allowing them to add to it with some good trade acquisitions and solid free agent signings. The past era of Padres baseball has been filled with a mixed bag of drafts – some good, a lot not so good. But overall, they missed out too many times when they had a plethora of high picks.

It is critical that this regime not only evaluate talent well, but also not be afraid to spend the extra dollar. If the Padres are confident in their ability to evaluate a draft class – and they should be, with all the brainpower in the front office – then they shouldn’t be worried about spending that extra money. In the long run, it will be money well spent.

Weekend links

May 30, 2010 in links, Myron Logan with 4 Comments

I haven’t done one of these in a while, and figured it was about time. If you’re wondering why my post rate has crept above replacement level recently, well, school is out, my baseball season is over, and I have a lot more time to think and write about Padres baseball. Secondly, I recently had minor surgery and thus my outdoor activities have been limited of late. I used to leave the basement at least once a day.  Hopefully, that at least provides a somewhat legitimate excuse for fiddling with PITCHf/x data on a Friday night. Hopefully.

The Padres are 29-20. Frankly, it is still somewhat hard for me to wrap my head around (I know, it shouldn’t be!) And it is not that I think this is a terrible team; no way. It’s just that I didn’t envision the best record in the NL after the month of May, even if things went really well.

The great thing is not only are the Padres playing well by wins and losses, their run differential is also tremendous at +41. Baseball Prospectus’s third order adjusted standings have them at 28-20 (not considering tonight’s win), still best in the NL. BP’s updated playoff odds report: 58% playoffs (basic), 31% (PECOTA-adjusted).

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Discovered some new Padres blogs recently – Padres Trail, Chicken Friars, Woe, Doctor. All worth checking out. If there are any others, let us know in the comments.

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Mike Lee posted an interview with Padres GM Jed Hoyer recently on FanGraphs’ Community Research Blog (a great idea, by the way). We are in good hands with Hoyer.

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Andy Seiler has a good discussion of second base draft prospects at his MLB Bonus Baby blog. That includes rumored Padres first round selection, Kolbrin Vitek:

Vitek’s tools are the most well-rounded of the second baseman group. He’s an above-average hitter with above-average raw power, and he’s a plus straight-line runner. While his hands and footwork at second base leave something to be desired, his quickness allows him to have adequate range to handle the position well.

Andy thinks he will move to third base or centerfield, long-term.

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MLG has a long primer on UZR at FanGraphs. I’ll admit, I don’t even think I’ve read it all yet. But it is worth a look if you’re interested in the inner-workings of the system.

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I’ve been surprised by the negatively surrounding new Padres play-by-play announcer Dick Enberg, evidenced at Gaslamp Ball, RJ’s Fro, and Avenging Jack Murphy. Unfortunately, I don’t (yet) have MLB Extra Innings, so I really haven’t heard much of Enberg. As far as I can tell, the main complaints are:

1. He isn’t biased. He uses his home run call, “touch em all”, when the opponent hits a home run, and he just generally does not seem to be rooting for the Padres and against the other team. There’s a fine line, I think. I don’t want my announcer to be complete homers like the White Sox’s, but you definitely want some bias, and you definitely want to hear some agony, reflecting that of the fan base, after a crushing late inning home run by the opposition.

2. He doesn’t seem overly familiar with the team/city/organization. This is a problem, I think, when you bring in a national announcer like Enberg. I really want my announcer to know the team inside-out, and that is tough to do on the fly.

3. He messes up names, miscalls plays, etc. This I can deal with, if it doesn’t happen at a horrible rate.

I’ve always liked Enberg as an announcer, though I actually don’t know if I’ve heard him call a baseball game. He does have a “big game feel” to him, as I’ve heard some people say, probably because of his voice and the fact that he’s announced so many big games. As far as his early tenure as the Padres announcer, it is obviously hard for me to judge, but it does not seem to be off to a great start.

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Geoff Young recently examined the Padres great start at The Hardball Times, concluding:

Even if the Padres cannot maintain their current pace (.591 WPct, or about 96 wins), they certainly appear to be better than the 75 wins I figured they’d notch this year. How much better will be a function of how far the pitchers regress. They got awfully high in two months. Four months is plenty of time to take a big fall.

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Also at THT, Nick Steiner takes an in-depth look at Braves starter Tommy Hanson. He uses PITCHf/x data to create similarity scores, which is pretty neat. Overall, a lot of good ideas about the future of projecting players.

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At The Sacrifice Bunt, Ray runs down some of the rather unattractive bats the Padres could potentially add.

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