San Diego Padres 2010 Forecasts: Starting Pitchers (Part 2)

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I shared my projections for Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Jon Garland, and Clayton Richard.  Today I take a look at Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, and Sean Gallagher…

Mat Latos

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

150

120

60.000

16.000

4.080

4.19

2.7

Latos is the real deal.  He is the Padres best pitcher.  His innings will be limited to ensure he is not unnecessarily overworked, but yeah, the guy is good.

Wade LeBlanc

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

80

56

28

12

4.60

4.80

1.0

I don’t love LeBlanc.  He had a nice Spring, but I don’t see his stuff playing too well as a major league starter. He has a good changeup, but his “fastball” is an oxymoron, and he walks too many batters for my liking.

Tim Stauffer

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

80

56

30

10

4.50

4.55

1.3

Because he is out of options, Stauffer may be traded.  Assuming he remains a Padre, I see him posting pretty average numbers.  There’s nothing too exciting about him.

Sean Gallagher

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

80

65

39

8

4.30

4.34

1.4

Gallagher is a pitcher I really like.  He misses bats and gives up very few homeruns.  His biggest problem is control.  He walks too many batters.  If he can cut down on the walks, Gallagher can be a fantastic pitcher.  I have a feeling he will be my “Chad Gaudin” this year — the guy that I think is pretty good, but nobody else seems to like.  To relive my “Chad crush” take a look at this post from last season and follow the links to more of my Chad analysis.

Recap:

Latos is great and should receive close to 150 innings.  The other guys all have issues.  Gallagher is my favorite of the three, but most people prefer LeBlanc or Stauffer.  Assuming one is not traded, all of the pitchers stand to pitch a decent chunk of innings this season.  I have LeBlanc, Stauffer, and Gallagher all slated for 80 IP.  In reality the split will not be that even, but trying to be more precise would be nothing more than a guess.

Up next: The final installment-Relievers

Tango’s Community Forecasts

by Daniel Gettinger

If you have not already done so (and I doubt that you have since only 14 people have so far), I encourage you to head over to The Book Blog and fill out Tango’s “Community Forecast” for the Padres.  All you have to do is select the number of games/innings pitched you believe a number of Padres players will play in.  It takes under five minutes, and the results help in all sorts of analysis and projections.

San Diego Padres 2010 Projections: Starting Pitchers (Part 1)

by Daniel Gettinger

Continuing my forecast series, today I look at the four San Diego Padres pitchers who have been locks for the rotation all spring…

Chris Young

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

110

85

43

12

4.15

4.25

2.0

Young is a really interesting pitcher, and very difficult to project.  He was fantastic in 2007, but has struggled with injuries since then.  I still believe he can be a quality pitcher, and his fly ball tendency seems well suited to Petco Park, but I do worry whether he will fully regain his post-injury effectiveness, and whether he can stay healthy for a full season.

Kevin Correia

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

170

120

64

17

4.15

4.22

2.5

Correia was fantastic in 2009 posting a 3.2 WAR in nearly 200 innings.  I expect a bit of regression from him in 2010, but he should still be a solid presence in the Padres rotation.

Jon Garland

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

195

105

58

20

4.25

4.35

2.5

Garland is nothing special, but has been consistent throughout his career.  He always throws around 200 innings of somewhere around league average baseball.  Garland won’t overpower many batters, but the Padres could do a lot worse than have Garland take the hill every five days.

Clayton Richard

IP

K

BB

HR

ERA

FIP

WAR

150

105

56

16

4.20

4.31

2.2

I like Richard.  I can see him turning into a Jon Garland type pitcher, a guy who eats up innings while posting average numbers.  Richard only has one year of major league service time, which makes him a very valuable player for the Padres over the next few seasons.
Recap:

I see Young, Correia, Garland, and Richard all posting very comparable seasons.  None of them project to be Cy Young candidates, but they are all solid, middle of the rotation starters who would receive innings on nearly any major league team.

Next I will look at the players who were candidates for the “fifth slot” in the rotation this Spring, all of whom stand to receive a decent chunk of innings at some point this season.

On the Road with Madfriars: Spring Training

by Ben Davey

As with last year, we caught up with John Conniff of MadFriars.com on his recent trip to Peoria, Arizona to find out how the San Diego Padres’ prospects are looking this spring.

1) The first question has to center around Logan Forsythe. In the offseason we heard that he might go to second base, but it probably wouldn’t happen for a year. Then he started playing second base in spring training, with inkling that he might play it this year in San Antonio. How has Forsythe looked at second and will he stay there in the regular season? And where does he eventually end up Portland or San Antonio?

John Conniff: Based on what I was reading on the Union Tribune and on a few other sites I thought going to spring training that this was a done deal; Forsythe is now a second baseman. I interviewed Logan the first day I was in Peoria and he claimed this has been way overblown.

He has played a little at second in the spring MLB games mainly to give someone a blow. Ninety-five percent of the reps that he has been taking have been at third base and, according to Logan; no one has told him that he will be playing at second this year. The Padres coaches that we talked to have been saying that he could play some second but right now there are no plans to move him.

Since James Darnell is ticketed for San Antonio, I can’t see Forsythe not being in Portland especially with the way he has performed in the big league camp.

2) Last year Jeremy McBryde, Kellen Kulbacki, Steve Garrison, and Drew Miller were a few high profile prospects to miss significant time due to injury. How have they looked in Spring Training, and will they be healthy enough to join their assigned team for opening day on April 8th?

John Conniff: I didn’t see much of Miller, Denis may have more information on that that I do. McBryde has looked ok; he’s still on the fence between San Antonio and Lake Elsinore. Kulbacki is healthy but didn’t really show much in the game that I saw. When speaking with most of the coaches that all recognize his talent but really need to see more consistency from him especially as a corner outfielder/middle of the order bat. He should begin the year in San Antonio.
Garrison has looked good in drills but they are still being very careful with him after his injury. He should be available sometime in May and probably in AA.

3) Has spring training cleared up any of the questions regarding the Fort Wayne outfield? How have Williams, Tate, and Liriano looked this spring, and is there a chance all of them end up in Fort Wayne to begin the year?

John Conniff: Not really and I think there are quite a few debates going on right now. However I am pretty sure that Everett Williams will be in about any scenario. He impressed me the most of the three. Good athlete, simple, repeatable swing and a very solid idea of the strike zone for a young player. He doesn’t have the power of a Jaff Decker but they are similar in the fact that you can see they have played quite a bit of baseball. I think he could do pretty well in Fort Wayne this year.
Donovan Tate is a physical specimen and when he takes batting practice you can see what the Padres are hoping he will become. The problem that I think he has is that he really hasn’t played as much baseball as someone like Jaff Decker or Williams and is going to have trouble making contact right now against more advanced pitching. I didn’t see him hit a ball square the time I was out there. On what they will do with him this year, I’m not really sure they know either. In my opinion the best scenario is to keep him in extended spring training, work with him on baseball skills, and then send him to Eugene. If he puts up great numbers he can always begin next year in Lake Elsinore.
Liriano is another player that is a very good athlete but also struggles with the breaking pitch. Right now, mainly because he is so young and the team has so much outfield depth, it could be a reach for him to begin the year in Fort Wayne.

4) Is there any player(s) who have come to spring training looking drastically improved in body, attitude and or appearance on the field?

John Conniff: Nearly everyone I saw in camp looked, to use the Johnny Drama phrase from Entourage, “lean”. Seriously, the Jaff Decker looked great, between 195 and 200. He wasn’t that much heavier in Fort Wayne but you can tell he really worked out and replaced quite a bit of baby fat with muscle. Once he recovers from his hamstring injury he could really put up some numbers in Lake Elsinore this year.

5) With Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod now in charge it seems that the new organizational philosophy is adapting the players to Petco. Is this philosophy of being more aggressive at the plate and on the base paths being stressed in the minor league camp? If so, what is the general reaction by players and coaches to this new philosophy?

John Conniff: I think the new regime has pretty much the same philosophy as the old one, especially in how much they value on-base percentage and pitchers not allowing walks. The big difference is they are going to look for players that are a little more athletic and plan to be more aggressive on the bases. So in a nutshell they still want to teach the same philosophy, but just start with better parts.

Why The San Diego Padres Should Trade Heath Bell

by Daniel Gettinger

Heath Bell is a very good reliever.  Last season he threw nearly 70 innings and struck out 79 batters.  His ERA of 2.71 was not a function of Petco Park.  His 2.42 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, and 2.25 tERA are all evidence that Bell was not just lucky last season.  This season, he projects to be just as good.

That said, the San Diego Padres should still trade Heath Bell.  As good as he is, Bell is a reliever.  Relievers do not add much value relative to full time position players and starters.

According to Fangraphs WAR, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jonathan Broxton was the most valuable reliever in the major leagues last season.  He accumulated 2.9 WAR.  In 2008, Mariano Rivera was the league’s most valuable reliever.  His WAR: 3.1.

To put this into perspective, 49 starters had a higher WAR than Broxton in 2009.  Zach Greinke, the major league leader in WAR for pitchers, was at 9.4 — over three times Broxton’s WAR in 2009.  As for position players, 76 players were more valuable than Jonathan Broxton in 2009.  And this is in comparison to the most valuable reliever in baseball.

That said, a high quality reliever can be very useful for a good team that plays in a lot of high leverage situations.  Typically when I refer to a high leverage situation, I am talking about an important moment in a particular game.  In this case however, I am referring to situations that can impact whether or not a team will make the playoffs.

For teams on the playoff bubble, winning close games is immensely important.  Just a game or two can be the difference between a playoff birth and a shot at the world series, and a disappointing season.  The value of high quality relievers to this type of team almost certainly exceeds the baseline WAR of that player.

The Padres are not such a team.  Like it or not, the Padres are not yet ready to compete for a playoff spot. Sure the team has a few nice pieces, but it is at least two years away from being truly competitive.

In itself, not being competitive this year (or even next year) is not good enough reason to justify trading Heath Bell.  The real issue is that Bell’s age and contract situation does not make him a great fit for the team two or three years down the road.

Bell is 32 years old.  His fastball was 3 MPH slower in 2009 than in 2007, and his slider was 4 MPH slower than in 2007.  As Bell continues to age, he is likely to continue to lose velocity.  He may still be an effective pitcher, but he is unlikely to be as effective.

Meanwhile, as Bell continues to age, his salary is likely to increase.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts Bell currently has a touch over four years of service time.  This season, his second eligible for arbitration, he agreed to a $4MM contract.  He will be eligible for arbitration once again following the 2010 season, and then eligible for free agency following the 2011 season.

Closers are well compensated by both the arbitration and free agent process.  Teams still seem willing to pay a premium for saves, and arbiters seem just as willing to provide large rewards for proven closers.  Typically, a player is expected to earn approximately 80% of their free agent value in their final year of arbitration. Although I don’t have the stats to back it up, I would guess that closers receive even greater percentage.

Essentially, Heath Bell is only cheap for the Padres through this season.  In 2011, he will get paid between 80% and 100% of his full value, and after that, he becomes a free agent.  Because the Padres are not expected to compete this season (and possibly not next), Bell does not provide as much value to the Padres as he would a better team.

Meanwhile, the Padres do have a number of possible replacements for Bell.  Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson were both excellent last season, each striking out over ten batters per nine innings.  Promising arms like Joe Thatcher, Adam Russel, and Ryan Webb may step up and prove to be late inning relievers as well.  Replacing Bell’s production is not a huge concern.

Because the Padres are not expected to be good while Bell is both good and cheap, trading him makes a lot of sense.  This is especially true because losing Bell will not be as damaging from an on-field perspective as most fans believe.  The Padres do not necessarily need to trade Heath Bell today.  The team should trade him at the moment they believe they can get the greatest return (taking into account possible fan backlash and decreased ticket revenue).  But trading Bell this season is something that should be done.