Kevin Kouzmanoff Should Not Win a Gold Glove This Season

by Daniel Gettinger

Last week, Corey Brock pointed out Kevin Kouzmanoff has the highest “fielding percentage of any Major League third baseman (.988) and the fewest errors (3).”

Brock argued, “the number of errors and fielding percentage the Padres’ third baseman has in 2009 certainly show that he should be, at the very least, in the discussion for the holy grail of awards for fielders.”

I disagree.

Kouz’s lack of errors are great, but not making errors on balls a player gets to is only one component of defense.  The other major defensive component for a third baseman is range.  And Kouzmanoff does not have great range.  UZR feels Kouzmanoff’s range has been -1.4 runs below average.

His overall UZR of 2.3 (3.4 UZR/150), seems about right to me.  It reflects Kouz’s consistency on balls he gets to (4.1 errors runs above average), but dings him for his below average range.

Baseball Prospectus is even harsher.  Their fielding metric sees Kouzmanoff’s fielding as about 5 runs below average this season.

The problem with fielding metrics is they are not very precise.  Over long periods of time, they seem to do a pretty decent job, but even a sample of 115 games (the number of games Kouz has played this season) is not sufficient to reach any definite conclusions.

That said, in 2008, UZR saw Kouzmanoff as 2.7 runs above average.  Like this season, Kouz made few errors, but displayed only passable range in 2008.  Based on his stats this year, as well as last year, I feel comfortable stating that Kevin Kouzmanoff has been a slightly above average fielder this season and projects to play the same way the remainder of the season.

Average fielding is fine, but it is not gold glove worthy.  The N.L. gold glove winner at third base should be Ryan Zimmerman.  It is not a close call.

Due to his phenomenal range, UZR feels Zimmerman has been 16 runs above average with the glove this season.  Zimmerman’s past suggests such a positive UZR may not be a fluke.  He struggled with injuries last year, but in 2007, Zimmerman was 17.4 runs above average at third base.

No other N.L. third basemen is within 10 runs (approximately one win) of Zimmerman defensively. Pedro Feliz and Casey Blake, both of whom trail Zimmerman but lead Kouzmanoff in UZR, have been 4.7 and 4.3 runs above average defensively.

Kouzmanoff has been solid with the glove, but to even consider him for the gold glove is ludicrous considering how good Zimmerman has been.  Limiting errors is great, but getting to the ball is important as well.

James Darnell Scouting Report

by Mike Rogers

Over at Project Prospect, there’s a nice and informative scouting report on the swing of 1st year pro, James Darnell. I had a three part series that looked at the 2008 college bats the Padres took in June of 2008 and I loved everything about James Darnell’s college statistics. I’m still a big time Darnell fan and think the former South Carolina Gamecock can be, at the very least, an average right fielder in the majors (not sure he can stick at third).

The scouting report makes a very interesting swing comparison: Justin Upton. Now, Steve Carter (who is using an alias but did play college baseball), cautioned he’s not expecting near the offensive production of Upton, but that they do have similar swings. An excerpt from the conclusion:

Darnell has the tools, ability, and swing to be a very solid offensive 3rd baseman. Eighteen home runs and a .998 OPS between Low-A Fort Wayne and High-A Lake Elsinore is certainly nothing to scoff at. But, the real test for Darnell will come at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Then we will find out if he is just a polished college hitter pounding A-ball pitching, or a legitimate prospect. If he can improve his upper body pattern and make a few other refinements, he could go from a potential Casey Blake with patience type, and move toward his ceiling of a pre-2009 breakout Ryan Zimmerman with a higher on base percentage.

So, there’s some things to like. Casey Blake with patience definitely isn’t anything to scoff at and Ryan Zimmerman with better OBP is very good outcome as well. There’s a lot to like about Darnell.

Now, while you’re perusing the Project Prospect website, feel free to read my PITCHf/x look at Jake Arrieta, a Baltimore Orioles right-handed pitcher. Yeah, it’s self-promotion and I will not be ashamed of it! Why should you read about an Orioles pitching prospect? Well, because I’ll be writing these types of pieces for Project Prospect when prospects make their debuts. So, I want you to get used to the format for when I pen my piece on Mat Latos (which I already looked at his debut right here for FF) through the PITCHf/x lens.

The Padres All Performance Enhancer Team: Pitchers

by Daniel Gettinger

The past two days I presented the position players on my “Padres All Performance Enhancer Team.”  Today we discuss the pitchers…

As a reminder: I am not necessarily claiming these players definitively took steroids, HGH, or any other performance enhancing substance.  Eligibility for this “team” has no specific conditions.  My selections are based on fan speculation, written Reports (The Mitchell Report, as well as media reports-possibly unsubstantiated), dramatic hat size increases, and my own opinion.  This three-part series is intended to be somewhat humorous, and should not be cited in any any serious steroid discussion.

Starting Pitcher: Kevin Brown

Brown spent only one season in San Diego, but made a definite impact while he was there.  He anchored the 1998 staff, helping the Padres win the National League pennant.

After the 1998 season, Brown signed a seven-year, $105M contract with the Dodgers, becoming the first player in major league baseball to receive a contract totaling more than $100M.

Injuries plagued Brown throughout that contract.

To the surprise of few, Brown was cited in the Mitchell Report as a possible steroid user.

Lefty Specialist: Ron Villone

Villone threw 18.33 innings for the Padres in 1996.  According to the Mitchell Report, Villone purchased steroids from Kirk Radomski on a number of occasions starting in 2004.

Set-Up Guy: Clay Hensely

In 2005, Hensley threw 42.66 innings of lights out relief (1.70 ERA) for the Padres.

Earlier in that season, while still in the minor leagues, Hensley was suspended 15 games for ”using performance enhancing substances.”

Closer: Matt Herges

In 2003, Herges picked up three saves for the Padres.  The next season, he saved 23 games for the Giants.

Herges was cited in the Mitchell Report.

Saves+Mitchell Report=Padres Performance Enhancer Team Closer.

Okay, I admit, this list was pretty lame.  Brown was an obvious choice, but of these players, only Hensley spent more than one season on the Padres.

We know pitchers have used performance enhancers, but guessing which ones were using is a lot more difficult than doing the same for position players.  That is why I only included pitchers who have either tested positive for PEDs, or were named in the Mitchell Report.

Team Recap:

Captained by third baseman Ken Caminiti, this team is not half bad.

The infield (3B-Cami, SS-Sheffield, 2B-Boone, 1B-Nevin, C-Santiago) has some serious pop, as does the outfield of Vaughn (LF), Rivera (CF)*, and Giles (RF).

*When doing research for this piece, I was amazed to discover that Ruben Rivera hit 23 home runs in 475 plate appearances in 1999.  He never learned how to hit a curve ball or take a walk, but his bat did contain some pop.

Starting pitching is also a relative strength, as Kevin Brown, when he was healthy, was pretty darn good.

That said, this team is terrible defensively (Sheffield at short), does not run the bases well, and has a horrendous bullpen (Hensley, Villone, and Herges).

I wonder how it would stack up to the “All Performance Enhancer Teams” of other major league clubs.

The Padres All Performance Enhancer Team: Outfielders

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I presented the infielders on my “Padres All Performance Enhancer Team.”  Today I give you the outfielders (yes, I know I promised pitchers as well, but they will have to wait one more day)…

As a reminder: I am not necessarily claiming that these players definitively took steroids, HGH, or any other performance enhancing substance.  Eligibility for this “team” has no specific conditions.  My selections are based on fan speculation, written Reports (The Mitchell Report, as well as media reports-possibly unsubstantiated), dramatic hat size increases, and my own opinion.  This two-part series is intended to be somewhat humorous, and should not be cited in any any serious steroid discussion.

Left Fielder: Greg Vaughn

This one was tough.  I had been reserving left field for Ryan Klesko, a player I have long suspected as a juicer.  As a Padre for seven years, Klesko seemed to be a more appropriate selection than Vaughn, who only played 2.5 seasons for the Friars.

Then I analyzed Klesko’s career stats.  There is nothing there that suggests he used performance enhancers.

At age 25, Klesko hit what would turn out to be a career high 34 home runs.  At age 30, Klesko hit exactly 30 home runs, but in no other season did he hit 30 or more home runs.  Klesko was really more of a 25 HR guy.  25-30 home runs per season is pretty good, but nothing that screams steroids.

Klesko’s aging path also does not suggest the use of performance enhancers.  He was a good player from ages 23-31, and then entered a decline, which appeared steeper than it was due to the move to Petco Park in 2004.

Klesko may have been using steroids throughout his career, thereby eliminating any sudden jumps (or drops) in performance, but in the absence of even a little evidence, I do not feel comfortable giving Klesko a starting role on a team dominated by more obvious juicers.

Greg Vaughn however has earned himself a starting role on the “team.”  Early in his career, Vaughn displayed some power (20-30 home runs per season), but never looked like a 50 home run guy.  In the two years following his 30 home run season at age 27, Vaughn struggled with injuries hitting only 19 and 17 home runs.  Then, at age 30, Vaughn hit 41 home runs.  The next season, 18 home runs.  And the year after that…in 1998…50 home runs!

I realize power sometimes develops with age, but in his age 32-35 seasons, Vaughn hit 147 home runs.  In his four best (i.e. not affected by injuries) seasons prior to 1998, hit only 121 home runs.  His ages in those seasons?  25, 26, 27, 30.

Runner Up: Klesko

Center Field: Ruben Rivera

Acquired from the New York Yankees for Hideki Irabu, Rivera was supposed to be the long-term answer in center field for the Padres.  The problem was, he could never get on base.

While there is not a lot of evidence that supports labeling Rivera a user of performance enhancers, I feel the fact that he stole Derek Jeter’s bat and glove, and sold them for $2,500 may justify his inclusion on this “team.”  I mean, if he was really that desperate for money, it does not seem like a huge stretch to think he may have tried to increase his value by attempting to gain an edge on the field

Plus, I sort of wanted an excuse to share Wikipedia’saccount of what Jon Miller once called “the worst baserunning in the history of the game.”

With one out in the bottom of the ninth in a 2–2 game, Rivera was a pinch runner on first base for Andrés Galarraga, who had reached on a Tony Womack error.

Marquis Grissom then hit a fly ball to deep right-center field, which David Dellucci misjudged; by this time, Rivera, who had gone past second base, was on his way back to first base after retouching second, believing that Dellucci would catch the ball.

When he saw that Dellucci did not make the catch, Rivera decided to try for third base, but failed once again to touch second and had to retrace his steps before continuing.

He would have been out easily except that Junior Spivey‘s relay throw bounced off the glove of Alex Cintrón, covering third base.

Having reached third base, Rivera chose to go for home, but the ball bounced to Womack, and Womack threw him out by a full step at home, preventing the would-be winning run.

Runners Up: Gary Matthews Jr and Rondell White, both of whom were named in the Mitchell Report.

Right Field: Brian Giles

Because Tony Gwynn and Brian Giles have manned right field for the Padres throughout much of the steroid era, there were not a lot of candidates to choose from.  Luckily for us, Giles is not a bad candidate for inclusion on this team.

Giles just looks like a guy who has used steroids.  He is short, stocky, muscular, and has a head that is way too big for his body.  A few times a year, someone from San Diego insists he or someone he knows has inside information, and claims that Giles has definitely been on the ‘roids for some time.  Those claims are unsubstantiated, but I do personally believe Giles has used steroids throughout his career.

However, Giles is similar to Ryan Klesko in that the stats do not actually support such a claim.  Many Padres fans argue that the sudden disappearance of Giles’s power once he joined San Diego is evidence that he used PEDs while with the Pirates, and then stopped using while a Padre.

I disagree.  There is no doubt that Giles hit fewer home runs in San Diego than he did in Pittsburgh, but he was also older and attempting to hit home runs in a notoriously difficult park to hit home runs in.

Giles joined the Padres when he was 32 years old.  He is now 38.  We expect players to hit less home runs in their age 32-38 seasons than they did from age 26 through 32.  Especially those who played half their games in Petco Park.  There may be visual and anecdotal evidence that Brian Giles has used steroids, but the statistical evidence is not particularly strong.

Next Up: Pitchers

The Padres All Performance Enhancer Team: The Infield

by Daniel Gettinger

Edit: In this post, I list Mike Piazza as the “starting catcher.”  As I wrote in the comments, I had completely forgotten that Benito Santiago had been connected to the Balco investigation.  Because Santiago played in seven different seasons for the Padres, while Mike Piazza only played in one, Santiago will henceforth be the starting catcher.

The media never seems to tire from stories about performance enhancing drugs.  I am personally not very interested in these stories, especially those that allege wrongdoings prior to any explicit major league baseball regulations.  But I seem to be in the minority.  Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz have headlined the most recent wave of steroid discussions, and there are sure to be more allegations levied at other superstars in the future.

While I may not be interested in reading about why steroids have ruined the game, or who did what seven years ago, I am entertained by speculation about which Padres have used steroids.  Not in a malicious or judgmental sense, just in a “ha, yeah, that guy was definitely juicing” type of way.

In that spirit, I present to you the infielders on my first (and hopefully only) “Padres All Performance Enhancer Team”…*

*Note: I am not necessarily claiming that these players definitively took steroids, HGH, or any other performance enhancing substance.  Eligibility for this “team” has no specific conditions.  My selections are based on fan speculation, written Reports (The Mitchell Report, as well as media reports-possibly unsubstantiated), dramatic hat size increases, and my own opinion.  This two-part series is intended to be somewhat humorous, and should not be cited in any any serious steroid discussion.

Third Base: Ken Caminiti

Caminiti played for the Padres from 1995-1998.  He won the NL MVP in 1996, and became a fan favorite in the process.  In a 2002 Sports Illustrated cover story, Caminiti admitted to using steroids throughout much of his career, including 1996.  His 2004 death was reportedly the result of a drug overdose.

First Base: Phil Nevin

Acquired from the Angels for infielder Andy Sheets in 1999, Nevin paid immediate dividends for the Padres.  In his first season with the Padres, Nevin tripled his HR total from the year before in less than double the plate appearances.  He hit 24 HR in 1999, 31 HR in 2000, and 41 HR in 2001.

Following the 2001 season, Nevin signed a 4-year, $34M contract extension.  Injuries plagued the rest of his Padres career, as he hit 12, 13, 26, and 16 HR in the four seasons following the extension.  Um, okay?

Runner Up: Wally Joyner who admitted to using PED’s in 2005.

Second Base: Bret Boone

In 1993, at age 23, Boone reached the majors with Seattle.  From that time, through his one year stint with the Padres in 2000, Boone established himself as a pretty decent second basemen.  He had trouble getting on base (1994 was the only season he had an above average on base percentage), but made up for it with power that was good for a second basemen.

In 1998, at age 29, Boone recorded what was then a career high in HR.  He hit 24.  The next two seasons, he hit 20 HR and 19 HR respectively.

Then Boone rejoined Seattle.  His head appeared to grow, and so did his HR totals.  From 2001-2004, Boone’s age 31-35 seasons, he hit 37, 24, 35, and 24 HRs respectively.  Enough said.

Runner Up: Marcus Giles-just because there has been so much speculation.

Shortstop: Gary Sheffield

Yes, I am cheating here.  Sheffield never played shortstop for the Padres.  But he did break into the majors as a shortstop.  Unless there is a large outcry for him to be replaced with someone like Andujar Cedeno, Tony Fernandez, Ricky Gutierrez, Chris Gomez, Damian Jackson, D’Angelo Jimenez, Deivi Cruz or Ramon Vazquez, Sheffield will have to do.

The good thing about Sheffield’s inclusion on this team is that he has admitted to using steroids.  Not knowingly, but using nonetheless.

According to his wikipedia page (perhaps not the most credible citation, but we’ll go with it), Sheffield states in his book that he used the cream, but did not know it contained steroids.  The same admission was supposedly made to a 2003 San Francisco grand jury.  Sheffield is cited in the Mitchell Report as a player who used steroids.

Catcher-Mike Piazza

This one was tough.  Piazza has never admitted to, nor been definitively linked to steroids.  Still, many people, myself included, are highly suspicious.

In his book, The Rocket that Fell to Earth, Jeff Pearlman quotes “former Red Sox first baseman Reggie Jefferson, who says that “everyone” knew Piazza was using steroids…Pearlman also makes reference to Piazza’s ’bulging muscles, [and] his acne-covered back’ in the book.” (NBC New York).

Makes sense to me.  Piazza hit 427 HR, most of which came while playing what is arguably the most strenuous position in baseball.  Such power from the catcher position is unprecedented.  Not bad for player drafted in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft.

Runners Up: Gary Bennett and Jim Leyritz, both of whom have actually admitted (Bennett/Leyritz) to using HGH.

Next up: Outfielders and Pitchers.