Previewing the 2012 Fort Wayne TinCaps: Pitching

January 4, 2012 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

Editor’s note: Ben is back with his annual preview of the San Diego Padres minor league affiliates. We’re always glad to read more of his work.

Last year the Single-A Fort Wayne TinCaps had some dominant pitching, led by top prospect Keyvius Sampson.  This year should be no different.  The interesting thing about the Fort Wayne rotation is that it shows off the two different types of top drafted pitchers.  Do you go for the polished college pitcher with a high floor and low ceiling (Andriese, Hebner, and Pope), or do you go after the high schooler with tremendous, but raw, ability (Portillo, Barbato, Ross, Kelly)?

The other question is who is going to fill the giant void left by Kevin Quackenbush?  The ace closer will be pitching up I-15, leaving Fort Wayne searching for their closer de jour.  Eugene had eight different pitchers close out at least one game, and a majority of the saves came over the last few weeks of the year showing that there was not an odds on favorite for closer in Fort Wayne.   Conundrum or not the college arms taken in the 2011 draft should provide a solid bullpen for the Tin Caps, something the 2010 team was sorely missing.

Starting Rotation:

Matt Andriese: 3rd round draft pick from the 2011 draft, and the first college pitcher taken by the Padres.  Andriese signed immediately and dominated from the beginning in Eugene.  He went 5-1, with a 1.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and averaged over a K/IP.  Andriese has good size and mechanics that should enable him to stay with the TinCaps.  He doesn’t have tremendous stuff as his fastball tops out around 93-94, but he has good movement and a solid slider that he uses as his strikeout pitch.  He needs to improve on his slider and change if he wants to succeed at the upper levels but he has a high floor which should lead him to dominate at Fort Wayne.

Cody Hebner: Hebner doesn’t have the size that most hope for, but he gets every bit out of his 5’11” frame and is a true student of the game.  Hebner is the first in the video room and the last to leave.  Hebner uses his FB as his bread and butter pitch.  He doesn’t nibble but sometimes his pitches will move be too much and lead to walks.  This led to the 15 walks in 37.2 IP.   He has a good 12-6 curve, with late action, that can be close to 20 mph slower than his FB.  At this point he doesn’t have a true change-up or slider, but both have already improved since joining the Padres.  Hebner is another pitcher with a high floor.  His ceiling is as a back of the rotation starter, but that shouldn’t stop him from excelling in Fort Wayne.

Adys Portillo:  Not much needs to be said about Portillo.  Tremendous stuff, but the results haven’t followed yet.  Another year in Fort Wayne and hopefully this time yields better results for Portillo.  He has received rave reviews during instructs, and as he continues to hit 98 on the gun, should finally be able to dominate.

John Barbato: Speaking of pitchers with high upside…  Barbato has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the system not named Portillo or Sampson.  Barbato has a plus fastball and slider, both of which have the ability to be absolutely filthy.  Like most young pitchers his change is a work in progress, but as he develops it also has the change to really make him an ace pitcher.  While everyone loves movement, Barbato suffered this past season from too much movement.  He often struggled finding home plate with his fastball which led to 31 BB in just 57 IP.  Ace potential but needs to locate his pitches better.

Joe Ross: 1st round selection by the Padres in the past draft.  Ross was given a huge bonus to not attend UCLA so I would guess he jumps Eugene in favor or Fort Wayne.  For being a pitcher a few months removed from high school, Ross has already displayed two plus MLB pitches in his fastball and curve.  He can already hit 95 on the gun which should go up a few mph as he gains more muscle.  Ross could find himself on the fast track to San Diego, but he needs to gain experience.  Ross has a very high ceiling, but like most high school draftees also has a very low floor.

Mark Pope: Pope might end up in the pen as the #5 starter, but chances are he gets a chance to start at least to begin the year.  Pope is not afraid and pounds the zone with his fastball (around 90).  He has a solid slider and curve and is not afraid to throw any pitch in any count.  Similar to Hebner and Andriese, Pope has a high floor with a low ceiling.  He will probably wind up in the pen, but he is a veteran enough pitcher (and was given over slot money) that he should do well in Fort Wayne.

Other Candidates:  Michael Kelly could crack the starting rotation, but after missing the entire 2010 season by not signing until the deadline, Kelly needs time working on his delivery.  Kelly might have better “stuff” then Ross or Barbato but his delivery has been inconsistent and he needs to get his delivery ironed out before facing pro hitters.  Other candidates include James Needy, Juan Herrera, Colin Rea, Chris Wilkes, and William Scott.

Bullpen:

With Quackenbush more than likely ending up in Lake Elsinore, there is not a clear cut favorite for who will be the closer in Fort Wayne.  When Quack was promoted to Fort Wayne last year Eugene had seven different people record a save.  No one really showed the dominance to become the everyday closer.  With all that being said the favorite might be Rafael Arias if he can come back from surgery and show off his mid 90’s fastball.   Other candidates include Chris Wilkes (5-1, 3.28 ERA, 35.2 IP, 46K/18 BB), Matt Stites (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 32.2 IP, 36 K/8 BB), or Greg Gonzalez (4-1, 3.99 ERA, 29.1 IP, 33 K/12 BB).  James Jones was the closer in Peoria before a late season call up to Eugene.

Putting themselves on the map (the sequel)

January 3, 2012 in Chris Kelly, player evaluation, prospects, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

For my first piece at Friar Forecast, I took a look at a position player (Connor Powers)  in the Padres minor league system that you won’t see on any prospect lists but has a chance to open some eyes. For this time around, I’ll focus on a pitcher: Matt Jackson.

Jackson was drafted at the age of 21 by the Padres in the 31st round of the 2009 draft out of the University of South Alabama. He was a letterman in both football and baseball at Haughton High School in Louisiana. Jackson initially attended LSU, and, as a freshman during the 2007 season, he pitched 32.0 innings, walked eight, and struck out 20. His final record at LSU was 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA.

Jackson subsequently transferred to Chipola JC (Florida) and was dominant, going 10-0 with a 2.61 ERA. Over 72.1 innings, he walked 14 and struck out 55. Following that season, he transferred to USA where he finished 5-4 with a 5.33 ERA. At South Alabama, he pitched 74.1 innings, allowing 81 hits while walking 27. Jackson struck out 64 batters for a K/9 of 7.75.  Overall, his WHIP that season was 1.45.

Those college numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, but the Padres saw some things they liked in the 6’4″ 190 pounder’s arsenal.

In his first season of professional baseball in 2009, Jackson finished at short season Eugene with a record of 3-7 and a 4.97 ERA. He pitched 58.0 innings, resulting in a WHIP of 1.31 to go along with a 6.8 K/9. In 2010, Jackson split time between Eugene and Low-A Fort Wayne. All totaled that season, he went 4-3 with a 4.98 ERA, a 1.375 WHIP, and a 5.8 K/9.

Thus far, the numbers Jackson put up were very solid but not eye-popping, especially for a 22-year old pitching in a pitcher-friendly league. However, 2011 saw a different Jackson altogether.

In his second stint at Ft. Wayne, Jackson found his niche. Despite being 23 and repeating the level, his numbers bear notice. He finished with a 5-1 record that included a 1.95 ERA in 64.2 IP. You read that correctly: a 1.95 ERA. It gets better. Over those 64 some innings, he allowed 49 hits, walked 12, and struck out 68. Yep…68. That resulted in an impressive K/9 of 9.5. Equally impressive was his WHIP of 0.943. Minuscule is a word that comes to mind.

Let’s look at a tale of two seasons here (data courtesy of Fangraphs.com):

IP K% K/9 BB% BB/9 HR/9 BABIP WHIP
2010 50.0 14.9 5.94 5.4 2.16 0.54 0.331 1.42
2011 64.2 26.5 9.46 4.7 1.67 0.14 0.279 0.94

Granted, Jackson spent several weeks of the 2011 season on the DL, so it’s likely his numbers would have been slightly less stellar. Regardless of age, injury, and experience, though, that’s a pretty dramatic improvement. Those 2011 numbers show absolute dominance.

The real question, of course, is will he be able to maintain this dominance? He’ll likely be moving up to Hi-A Lake Elsinore, and it is notorious for being a hitter-friendly league. Laws of probability would say that he won’t maintain the level he attained this past season, yet to see such a significant change in his performance, it is obvious Jackson has made some adjustments that will work for him in 2012, and I expect to see him performing in the same neighborhood as he did this past season.

If he can maintain at or near an 8.0 K/9 and a WHIP around 1.10, you’ll see him move quickly on up through the system. He’s got the frame, so if he can fill out some more without sacrificing any of his stuff, Jackson could at best be a mid-to-back of the rotation starter, and at worst, he could be a long reliever. He relies on a fastball, sinker, curve, slider, and circle change–a wide array of options, which can create havoc for opposing hitters.

2012 will be a pivotal season for Jackson. Another strong run of stats like he put up in 2011 will quickly earn him a place on the prospect lists which, given the status of San Diego’s system, is really saying something.

Padres acquire Carlos Quentin

December 31, 2011 in Myron Logan, prospects, San Diego Padres, trades with 3 Comments

The San Diego Padres have acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox for right-handed pitcher Simon Castro and lefty Pedro Hernandez.

Carlos Quentin, who has spent significant time in both outfield corners, enters his final year of arbitration. He’s estimated to make $7.5 million in 2012 before entering free agency in 2013, according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Quentin is above average with the bat, hitting .257/.352/.505 in four seasons in Chicago. In 483 plate appearances in 2011, Quentin hit .245/.340/.499 – numbers almost identical to his career line. Quentin has very good power and much of his on-base skills are due to extremely high hit-by-pitch totals (78 over the past four years).

He’s a solid offensive player, but he’ll leave hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular for Petco, and it’ll remain to be seen how his fly-ball-centric offense will adjust (Quentin has averaged near 50 percent fly balls over the past three years). Every hitter is hurt by Petco, but some adjust better than others .

Further hampering Quentin’s value is his defense. Over his career in the outfield, Quentin is -22 by DRS and -32 by UZR (-8 of that thanks to his arm rating), according to FanGraphs. His Fans Scouting Report numbers have also not been encouraging, with only one attribute (arm strength) being rated above average. Overall, he doesn’t appear to be a good outfielder.

At an expected $7-8 million in 2012, there isn’t a lot of value to be had here, especially on a team not expected to compete.

The Padres didn’t give up any top prospects, but they did give up a couple of intriguing pieces.

Prior to last season, Simon Castro was rated as the 58th best prospect in MLB by Baseball America. Kevin Goldstein had him pegged as the Padres second best prospect before ‘11.

Castro failed to build on his promising resume and when the Padres acquired a slew of shiny new prospects, he fell to Prospect Obscurity Land (outside of BA’s and BP’s top 10).

Check out his peripherals in Double-A from 2010 and 2011:

Year Inn K/PA BB/PA BABiP FIP
2010 129.7 20.2% 6.8% .271 3.34
2011 89.3 19.5% 4.3% .321 3.80

That looks like largely the same pitcher. His walk rate  actually went down, his strike out percentage went down only slightly, and his average on balls in play (of which he’d have the least control over) skyrocketed.

There are obviously some concerns. His groundball rate dropped (and his home run rate subsequently increased), his serious struggles in limited Triple-A innings are alarming, and the general decline in his strikeout rate as he climbs the ladder is not encouraging.

Still, if you’re telling me this guy was a legitimate prospect before last season and now he’s an afterthought, well, I’m not quite buying it. Either your prospect ratings weren’t that good to begin with, or you’re overreacting to his 2011 performance.

While losing Castro stings, Pedro Hernandez may be the bigger prize here. He’s left-handed, he doesn’t turn 23 until April, and he’s performed well at every level besides Triple-A. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is 5.4. He’s K’ed eight per nine while walking just 1.5, in 343 minor league innings.

There are concerns, too, of course. His size, mainly, as he’s only 5-10, 200. Further, his stuff isn’t overpowering as his fastball sits in the high-80s.

Castro and Hernandez aren’t top prospects, and there’s a chance that they don’t develop any further. Still, why deal them for a one-year rental on a team not expected to make a true playoff push in 2012? Sure, they could deal Quentin at the deadline or pick up a draft pick or two next year if they decide to hold onto him (edit: probably won’t get picks, thanks to the new CBA).

Personally, I’d rather they held onto Casto and Hernandez or targeted someone with more long-term value than Carlos Quentin. This isn’t a terrible trade by any means and it doesn’t change my (still optimistic) outlook on Josh Byrnes, but I can’t say it gets my Fred McGriff stamp of endorsement.

Wave through the window

December 30, 2011 in prospects, San Diego Padres, Scott Tanderup with 7 Comments

Editor’s note: Welcome Scott Tanderup to Friar Forecast. He’ll be a regular contributor. He writes at Padres Future and he’ll be focusing on prospects and the general direction of the organization.

Fellow San Diego Padres fanatics and baseball junkies (you have to be a baseball junkie if you are reading another teams blog), the Padres are about to enter what could be an unprecedented era of sustained success. Past follies, and plenty of them, are in the past. The future looks bright.

For some Padre fans, it’s the same old tune. We have been promised a bumper crop from the farm before, only to find a wilted field full of Tag Bozied and Matt Bush. Others will remind us all of the promises of payroll juggernaut, only to find players paid with peanuts. I am here to tell you this time will be different.

I understand the frustration of fans that expected a Petco payroll in the $70-$80 million range. The reality is… divorce sucks. The Padres payroll, just prior to the John Moores mess was heading north and was at the anticipated range that many fans felt it should have been at. Going through a divorce and having to sell a team in the process has its consequences. Payroll took a nose dive. There is good news. The Moorad group is nearing completion of the purchase of the team. A new TV deal will add additional revenue. The payroll has already started to trend upwards with promises of getting back to that $70-$80 million range. I know, I know, we have been promised this before. Unless Moorad plans to sell the team or has a divorce of his own to contend with, I have no reason to believe the payroll won’t get there.

The other source of fan frustration has been the dismal farm system production over the last several years (and by several I mean longer than I can remember). There is good news on that front as well. Did I say good? I meant great, unprecedented, and spectacular even. I know, I know we have been sold on the farm system before. This time is different. I realize that prospects are just prospects and many of them bust. Once in a while, boom goes the dynamite. The more highly rated prospects a team has, the greater the chance one or more of them pan out. This current crop is in uncharted territory.

The combination of no long-term contract commitments, a commitment to grow payroll over the coming years as the Moorad group takes over, and the exciting bonanza of prospects puts the Padres in a position to dominate the NL West for years to come. Having no current long-term commitments puts the Padres in a position to start wrapping up some young core players to club-friendly deals and keeping payroll low as the farm system provides low cost talent. This situation allows the Padres to then trade from strength to fill specific needs and go out and sign specific players they need to plug any potential holes. Loads of flexibility and a wave of talent coming through the system should give the Padres a long window to win some division titles. They appear to be headed towards the Rays model without having to compete with Boston and New York.

Here is a quick look at the wave of talent coming through the system and what the Padres window could look like. Of course, trades and free agent signings will alter things.

So I say… sit back, relax and wave through the window!

Am I crazy about a potential Cameron Maybin extension?

December 29, 2011 in Cameron Maybin, contracts, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres with 7 Comments

Yesterday I wrote about the prospect of the San Diego Padres extending center fielder Cameron Maybin to a long-term deal.

I estimated that a six-year, $40 million deal (plus an option) would be fair to both Maybin and the Padres, giving the center fielder financial security for life and the Padres a chance to maximize surplus value. The proposed six-year deal would buyout Maybin’s first two free agent eligible seasons and keep him around beyond 2015.

In the comments, Websoulsurfer said :

I think Tabata’s 6 yr/$14.25 million deal with 3 option years that could bring total value to $37.25 million w/the Pirates is a good guideline to what kind of offer Maybin will be looking at.

Bill  Center in a chat today :

Any extension granted by the Padres would have to include at least one or two seasons when Maybin was a potential free agent — So you are talking of at least a five or six year deal worth at least $15-$18 million.

Personally, I don’t see him signing for a figure that low. Unless Maybin is risk-averse or not too high on his own abilities, there is little reason for him to sign such a deal.

What do you say?

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