A Bizarre Game

June 8, 2009 in Daniel Gettinger, game recaps, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

Most really long games (lets define a “really long game” as one that requires a second rendition of “Take me Out to the Ball Game”) are shaped by unlikely events.  But yesterday’s 18 inning game was one of the oddest I have ever seen.

Josh Geer started the game, throwing 5 innings of pretty abysmal baseball.  He walked 3, struck out 2, and surrendered 4 runs.  Unfortunately, Geer’s terrible start cannot really be classified as “odd.”  He’s Brian Lawrence without the movement, a combination bound to get rocked every handful of outings.  Meanwhile, the Padres bats were unable to muster much of a threat.  By end of the fifth inning, the Padres had about a 6% chance of winning the game.  Time to bring in the mop-up guys.

Joe Thatcher was the first bullpen arm to enter the game.  He wasted no time in allowing an additional run. The Padres failed to respond.  Odds of winning after 6 innings: 1%.

In the seventh, Greg Burke threw a shaky, but scoreless inning, and Kouz hit a solo shot.  The Diamondback’s lead was reduced to 5 runs, but the number of outs available to the Padres was also reduced.  Odds of winning after 7: still about 1%.

The eighth inning is when things started to get fun.  Cla Meredith threw a scoreless top half of the inning. With two outs in the bottom of the inning, Junior hit a double.  Then Edgar Gonzalez walked.  Adrian came to the plate with two men on base.  A home run makes things interesting again.  Anything else, even an RBI single, or a 2-RBI double still leaves the Padres down by quite a few runs.

Knowing that the Padres have their best hitter at the plate, are down by 5 runs in the eighth, and already have two outs, Tony Gwynn Jr. makes a ridiculously dumb base running decision.  He attempts to steal third.  He gets thrown out.  Threat over.  Adrian is forced to trade in his bat for his glove.  Odds of winning after eight: 0.5%.

In the ninth, Luis Perdomo retired the Diamondbacks in order.  Then the Padres bats came to life.  Adrian led off the bottom of the inning with a double, and Headley singled him in.  Headley scored as a few more guys reached base.  But a few guys also recorded outs.  

With two outs and two guys on in the bottom of the ninth inning, David Eckstein strolled to the plate in a pinch-hit appearance.  At this point, the team still had no more than a 4% chance of winning the game. Those odds changed with one swing.  For the first time in 2009, David Eckstein hit a home run.  The game was tied.  Odds of winning: 53%.  Gwynn Jr. grounded out to end the inning.

In extras, the two teams continued to battle, with each team’s bullpen refusing to surrender a run.  Because Geer was only able to go five innings, the Padres had used all seven of their relievers by the end of the 15th inning.  (Note: Maybe a 12-man pitching staff isn’t such a bad idea after all).  Enter Chad Gaudin, Friday’s starter.  He threw two innings, and struck out 3.  But the Padres were unable to score either.  

Unwilling to put Gaudin at further risk, Bud Black called on shortstop Josh Wilson to pitch in relief.  Now, I have seen position players pitch, but never before had I seen a position player pitch in a tied ball game. Black really had no choice, but it’s still odd-especially for a team that carries 7 relievers.

Anyway, Wilson allowed Felipe Lopez and Ryan Roberts to reach base.  But he also picked up two outs.  He was one strike away from escaping the inning.  But Mark Reynolds decided to deliver the 3-2 pitch into the seats.  Odds of winning after the homerun: 3%.

In the bottom of the inning the Padres could not answer.  Odds of winning: 0%.

Okay, the Padres lost.  But the game was fun and interesting-even more so than most Padres wins.  It started out like a typical Sunday afternoon blowout.  Complete with idiotic base running. Then got exciting when David Eckstein decided to channel his inner Babe Ruth, and hit his first homerun of 2009.  Then things just got weird.  Friday’s starter made a cameo appearance in relief, and a position player was asked to pitch in a tied game.  Had the game gone any longer, we might just have seen Henry Blanco attempt to pitch from the windup.  Oh well.  If Peavy is unable to go deep into the game, our chance may come today!

***Note: Win Probability Graph courtesy of Fangraphs

A Few Weekend Thoughts

June 7, 2009 in Daniel Gettinger, San Diego Padres with Comments Off

by Daniel Gettinger

  • Mr. Gwynn is off to a very nice start in a Padres uniform.  It probably won’t last, but while it does, it is fun watching him get on base, and using his speed to steal bases.
  • Now that things have started to sort themselves out, the bullpen has actually pretty good.  Heath Bell has obviously been awesome, but Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, and Cla Meredith have been fine as well.  Same with Greg Burke, albeit in a smaller number of innings.
  • Chad Gaudin is a crazy pitcher.  He strikes out a lot of guys, but walks a ton too.  A low HR rate (0.4/9 innings) has allowed his FIP to remain at reasonable level despite the walks.  I expect he will cut down on the walks (his career walk rate is much lower), but give up more home runs.  The results might be the same, but the manner in which he receives those results is likely to change.
  • Brian Giles has had serious trouble catching up to fastballs (-2.23 runs below average per 100 pitches) and cut fastballs (-4.98).  Slower stuff like curves (0.05) and change ups (0.14) have not been such a problem.  Giles’ plate discipline is the same it has always been, and he has gotten a bit unlucky on balls in play, but this pitch data is just one more piece of evidence that the real problem behind his struggles is greatly reduced bat speed.  
  • Trevor Hoffman has still not allowed a run this season.  

Singing the Praises of Mat Latos

June 6, 2009 in Ben Davey, prospects, San Diego Padres with 2 Comments

by Ben Davey

By now everyone in Padreville has learned of the recent accomplishments of “the golden boy” Mat Latos (well unless you are living under a rock in New York..cough cough Myron).  In case you have not, he is currently 2-0, with a 0.51 ERA in San Antonio, and overall is 5-0, 0.42 ERA, 43 IP, 17 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 46.  But that is the stuff most of you already know.

I had never heard or watched a game that Latos pitched in, so I was a bit skeptical of all the hype he has been getting.  I had a chance to listen to the Mission’s game last night, and my skepticism is gone.  He looks (err sounds) like the real deal.  He was sitting comfortably around 94-95 mph, and had pinpoint control (walked 1 in 6.2 IP) of his fastball.  He topped out hitting 98 a couple times.  He threw mainly fastballs, but not in the same ratio that I had heard he threw in 07/08 (over 90%).  From what I heard, his changeup kept hitters from sitting on his fastball, and usually caused weak grounders foul.  Of his repertoire, his slider is his worst pitch but seemed better than what I had heard.  He did not throw it very often, but when he did, it seemed like a fairly good pitch.  It just didn’t have the same control that he had on his fastball and change.  When he did miss, it was outside.  He did not have the normal problem that we see with young talented pitchers where they miss over the plate (and when they try too hard the pitch flattens out).  I didn’t hear any of that with Latos.

From my viewpoint Latos can (and hopefully will be) every bit the ace that Jake is.  Yes I know that was a big statement (considering Jake is an NL Cy Young winner), but he seems like the real deal. Before this gets picked apart, someone pointed out to me that the Padres have had terrific pitching prospects before, and the name that was pointed out to me was Dennis Tankersley.

Both shot up through the Padres system at the tender age of 22 (actually Latos is 21.5).  Tankersley went 10-4 with a 1.98 ERA through 3 levels in 2001 and was named the Padres Minor League Pitcher of the Year.  He was every bit as dominant as Latos was and the Padres and their fans (including myself) were excited to see him make his Padre debut.  However after that amazing 2001 was season Tankersley was never the same.  In 2002, he made his major league debut, and while he didn’t necessarily pitch bad, he walked 40 in just over 51 innings.  Of course after that fateful start in 2003 (where he failed to record an out after 7 batters) he went off the deep end, and for the most part was never the same.

So I will end this post by saying why he is not the next Tankersley.  In Tankersley’s most dominant season of 2001 he still walked 44 in 136 innings.  Now that I am writing this post I have a hard time finding anything that could set Mat apart from Dennis.  But at the same time I am finding a hard time finding anything about Dennis that suggested that he would become the gigantic flop that he was.  But I can say that this year Latos’ 5:1 K/BB and IP/BB ratio is fantastic.  He has had pinpoint control and has actually improved his control with the slider and change in the past year.  Maybe Tankersley can be thought of as the worst case scenario, and maybe some skeptics will point to players like Tank, Carrillo, Stauffer, and possibly Schmidt (although Schmidt seems to be doing a lot better in his recent starts) to try and show that Latos will be nothing different…but in my book Latos is every bit the real deal and I am on the Mat Latos bandwagon.

(Now as far as calling him up and service time…that is a different issue for another post)

Welcoming Back a Familiar Name

June 5, 2009 in Daniel Gettinger, links with 3 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

I am really pleased to announce that Myron Logan has agreed to rejoin Friar Forecast. His current plan is to write an analysis piece once every one to two weeks.  His first article (well first in a few months) will appear here somewhere around draft day.  As most readers of this blog know, Myron has demonstrated a consistent ability to tackle interesting questions about the Padres, sabermetrics, and baseball in general.  I am very much looking forward to reading his work, and I suspect many of you are as well.

In addition to the pieces he will publish here at Friar Forecast, Myron has set up a new website called “Another Padres Blog.”  There, he will tend away from some of the longer analysis pieces, but have a frequent assortment of links to interesting articles from around the web.  Brief commentary and opinion will accompany the links.  Another Padres Blog has already become a daily stop for me, and I encourage all of you to check it out.

Again, I am excited about Myron’s return, and am eager to read his thoughts both here at Friar Forecast, and also at his new site “Another Padres Blog.”

Way Too Much on Stats that Don’t Matter

June 4, 2009 in Daniel Gettinger, links, rants, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

In today’s UT is an article titled “Hairston’s Injury Leaves the Pads without Pop.”  In the article, author Bill Center tries to demonstrate just how valuable Scott Hairston has been to the Padres this season.  Center’s observation that “the only hitter more valuable to the Padres is Adrian Gonzalez,” is dead on.  The manner in which he proves his case is not.  

Center first attempts to demonstrate Hairston’s worth by pointing out that he has driven in the second most runs on the team (behind only Adrian Gonzalez).  I don’t like using RBI’s when discussing the quality of a player’s season.  It is a statistic that is too context dependent.  But, if Center had moved on to more enlightening stats, I would not have minded the quick mention.  Unfortunately, things only got worse.

Center’s next statistic of choice was batting average:

“Hairston carried the Padres’ top overall batting average (.327), the highest at Petco Park (.311) and the highest against left-handed pitchers (.379).The latter mark was 95 points over Gonzalez’s second-highest average against left-handers and 161 points above the team norm. And Hairston’s mark at Petco Park was 93 points above the team average.”

Umm…okay.  These numbers are, all else equal, pretty good.  But we know that batting average does not tell the complete story.  Why not use on base percentage or OPS, both of which explain run production better than batting average, and are becoming mainstream statistics.  It’s not like I am calling for the use of something like wOBA.

The final straw was Center’s decision to point out Hairston’s success in various small-sample size situations.  He wrote:

 

Hairston was hitting .414 with runners in scoring position (12-for-29) with three homers, 17 RBI and a .793 slugging percentage and was 6-for-11 in RISP situations with two outs.

Overall, Hairston was a .395 hitter with two outs; .a 379 hitter in tie games, and had a .329 average with five homers and 16 RBI in Padres wins.

Did you also know that Hairston is batting only 0.250 (9-for-36) when he leads off an inning?  Or that as a left-fielder, he is batting 0.217 (10-for-46)?  Splits are fun things to look at, but with the exception of righty-lefty matchups, they don’t really tell us anything about the player.  The differences are almost always a function of small sample sizes.  Nothing more.

Scott Hairston has played well this season.  I applaud Center for attempting to convey to UT readers just how good Hairston has been.  I just wish he would have done so using statistics that properly capture the quality of Hairston’s play.

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