Busy day for the Padres, as they have apparently signed Wily Mo Pena to a minor league deal, along with the aforementioned extension of manager Bud Black’s contract.

Pena hasn’t played in the majors since 2008 with the Nationals, where he hit .205/.243/.267. He does have a respectable career line of .253/.307/.447. Pena, amazingly, is still just 28 years old, and he’s spent this season playing for the Bridgeport Bluefish.

Pena is your typical shot in the dark acquisition; low risk, (likely) low reward. There’s always a chance, however, that he catches fire with new major league life, and contributes something down the stretch. I watched Pena play in 2006 for Boston, and he was, at the time, best described as a raw talent. When he got a hold of one, he could hit it as hard as anyone, but that didn’t happen all that often.

****

MLB Trade Rumors also reports that the Pads are interested in Miguel Tejada, Orioles third basemen.

Pass.

****

My second article at The Hardball Times is up; it’s on the Cliff Lee-Justin Smoak deal. Check it out!

The San Diego Padres announced that they’ve extended Bud Black’s contract through 2013, with options for 2014 and 2015.

I’ve always been sort of an agnostic toward the value of managers, but it’s tough to quibble with this move, as Black gets everything out of his teams, often outperforming expectations. This year is a perfect example, as the projected bottom-feeder Padres sit atop the National League.

Much deserved congrats go out to Buddy for the job he’s done, and to the Padres for having the sense to keep him around.

On Friday night, after the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks had long been decided, San Diego Padres pitcher Ernesto Frieri entered to pitch the top of the ninth. Frieri promptly retired all three Diamondbacks he faced – Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, and Mark Reynolds – in order, the last two by way of the strikeout. It was only his third career major league inning, first this season.

Here’s the PITCHf/x data on Frieri’s 2010 debut:

Frieri threw just two off-speed pitches out of 14, both curveballs at 79 and 75.6 MPH, respectively. His fastball ranged from 92.9 to 95.2 MPH, averaging 94 MPH.

There isn’t a ton you can glean from an inning, but Frieri’s stuff looked nasty and his minor league track record is impressive. If Frieri can quickly develop into a reliable reliever, it could allow the Padres to trade someone from the pen or – if there’s any interest – Frieri himself for a starting pitcher or a bat.

Shameless self-promotion out of the way first.

You can purchase the 2010 San Diego Padres Trade Deadline Primer for $9.95. I contributed the Padres chapter, and the e-book includes commentary on every team from some of the best bloggers on the net. Check it out!

In case you missed it, I’m writing a The Hardball Times, and on Monday I took a look at our own Luke Gregerson and how he’s found success in the Padres bullpen. I also posted a short piece on THT Live about this week’s Braves-Blue Jays trade. You should see an article up at THT from yours truly every Monday.

Finally, I’ve started a blog on Tumblr as both a place to catalogue my online writing and to share my (longer than twitter, shorter than full-length article) thoughts on baseball. Also, you can always follow me on Twitter.

****

I tuned in an inning too late to catch Simon Castro pitch in the Futures Game, but apparently he wasn’t at his best. Jeremy Greenhouse commented on his stuff at The Baseball Analysts:

Simon Castro has a good enough slider, but his fastball lacked luster. A 91-MPH tailing fastball will get hit in the Majors, so he’ll need to cut down on his walk rate. He pitches with very little separation between his fastball and his change.

The Padres placed Mat Latos on the DL, and the whole process has caused some controversy.

Geoff Young created a Padres all-star team out of short (5-9 and under) players. Not pretty.

Tom Krasovic talks about the Padres potentially have insurance on Chris Young’s contract, amongst other things.

Colin Wyers has a thoughtful piece on fielding metrics at Baseball Prospectus. Mike Fast responds at THT.

Beyond the Boxscore discusses the Yunel Escobar trade and the Padres excellent bullpen.

On Monday I wrote an article at The Hardball Times about Luke Gregerson and his rise to success in the Padres bullpen. Check it out.

I am writing weekly at THT now, and I’m thrilled about that opportunity. As longtime readers know, I have been a huge fan of THT over the years. Much thanks to those who made it happen.

****

At View From the Bleachers, a Cubs blog, I take a look at Ted Lilly’s trade value, along with bloggers from other teams with potential interest in Lilly. In the end, I conclude:

Who would we be willing to give up for Lilly’s services? I’d be comfortable trading one B and maybe a throw-in a C prospect, per John Sickels ratings. So, for example, one of either 2B Logan Forsythe or 3B Edinson Rincon and a standard Grade C prospect (maybe a Dexter Carter or Craig Italiano, both RHPs).

Read the whole post for my complete (relatively brief) analysis and to see what everyone else had to say.

****

Finally, don’t forget about the Padres Trade Deadline Primer, which you can read about here and purchase here. Check out this free preview to gauge your interest.

The San Diego Padres 2010 Trade Deadline Primer is here. You can purchase the e-book for $9.95. And, before purchasing, you can view a “quarterbook” preview for free.

Here’s the skinny:

Whether you’re a Padres fan, a baseball expert or a fantasy baseball guru, this is your reference guide to the 2010 trading season. Written by Myron Logan of Friar Forecast and a host of experts from other teams, this 160+ page e-book provides all the info you’ll ever need:

- Foreword by Rob Neyer of espn.com

- Summaries of what every other team is looking to do at the deadline, including how it could help your fantasy team

- 150+ easily referenced trade targets with breakdowns

- 120+ impact prospects

- Essays about what other team in the NL West may be focusing on.

Order now and you’ll receive your copy within minutes!

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been working with the folks at TwinsCentric and a bunch of excellent team-bloggers from around the league on a special, mid-season project, a trade deadline primer. There are 30 versions of the e-book, one for every team. Each time one of the Friar Forecast versions sell, I’ll receive 50 percent of the profit with the other 50 percent going to the guys who put the entire thing together. Here’s my sales pitch:

1. It’s a really excellent publication, and I think $9.95 is a great deal for 160+ pages of content from some of the best baseball writers in cyberspace. You get a rundown on every team, a special focus on the Padres, lists of players available at the deadline, potential impact prospects, a fantasy angle, national essays, and a foreword by Rob Neyer, plus much more.
2. I’ll be using it throughout the trade season. It is a really handy resource for all things trade deadline.
3. If sales go reasonably well, I’ll definitely consider putting together an e-book in the off-season, such as a Padres preview or something along those lines.
4. All profit I receive will very likely go back into blogging related activities. Baseball books, subscription Websites, maybe even MLB Extra Innings again next year.

Seriously, consider it. If you can’t make the purchase at this time, that’s certainly understandable, but I think you’ll be happy with the product if you do.

If you do purchase and you like it, don’t be shy about spreading the word to others who may be interested, be it online or in real-life.

Feel free to ask any related questions in the comments.

The San Diego Padres acquired RHP Sean Gallagher as the PTBNL in the Scott Hairston trade last summer (that also netted Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano). Now the Padres have traded Gallagher to the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash considerations, after designating him for assignment last week to make room for Tim Stauffer.

Gallagher’s solid minor league track record has not yet translated to the Major League level, as he has put up a career 5.08 FIP in 173 innings. In an organization filled with pitching, apparently there just was not room to retain Gallagher. It might be a decent move for Pittsburgh, as Gallagher has a solid enough repertoire and is under control through 2013.

Dan Schlossberg at Seamheads thinks that we shouldn’t believe the hype surrounding Stephen Strasburg, noting:

While it’s true that Strasburg’s various road appearances produced sellout crowds, the kid lost three of his first five games. He’s living proof that reaching triple digits on the radar gun may impress the media but does not necessarily intimidate the opposition

The article in general warns us that Strasburg may not win 300 games (he likely won’t) and that he has not yet earned his place amongst baseball’s best (certainly arguable).

Personally, I do not think that we need to wait for Strasburg’s career to be over before we can enjoy it. This is a guy who, after all of the aforementioned hype throughout his college and minor league career, responded by delivering a 14 strikeout, no walk game in front of a sellout crowd in Washington — and on baseball’s center stage. 

It’s not just that Strasburg is off to a great start, with his 2.45 ERA over his first six starts. It is how he’s doing it – 53 strikeouts, 10 walks, and 2 home runs in 37 innings. A 98-99 mile per hour fastball, 96 MPH two-seamer, an excellent curveball, and a 90+ MPH changeup.

Some of Schlossberg’s points are valid. Sure, we shouldn’t anoint Strasburg a 300 (or 200) game winner during his first season. But winning 300 games is so rare that it shouldn’t be a prerequisite to achieving greatness. And it’s fine to say that Strasburg hasn’t earned an all-star spot yet, or that he hasn’t proven he’s the best pitcher in the game.

But Strasburg is certainly not a product of hype. He has been hyped, unlike any pitcher in recent times, because of what he’s done on the baseball field, and because of the attributes he has that allow him to throw a baseball the way he does. As baseball fans, we don’t need the media to explain Strasburg’s greatness. We can see it every time he takes the mound, and we want to celebrate it while it’s happening, not when it’s all said and done.

Normally a team sitting at 47-33 in early July, with a 3.5 game lead in the division, is almost certainly going to be “buyers” at the deadline. The idea, of course, is that a team in that position is set up to make a run at the playoffs, if not the World Series. Adding players at the deadline both increases the team’s chance of making the playoffs and going deep into the playoffs once they get there.

The San Diego Padres (47-33, 3.5 game lead, conveniently just like our theoretical team above), then, are going to be buyers at the deadline, right? Right? Well, according to Dave Cameron and Tim Marchman, maybe they shouldn’t be. Marchman, I think, is a little extreme and off-base with his take, and he receives some deserved, if not slightly over the top, criticism at GLB. Cameron is more fair with his assessment.

Anyway, the issue, if you don’t read the articles, is that the Padres are not your typical 47-33 first place club. Yes, they are playing good, and undoubtedly they are better than the preseason projections. However, there’s little doubt that they *should* come back to Earth a bit in the second half. The argument can be made that they should stick with their original plan, before all of this winning baseball got in the way, which was likely to trade players like Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell at the deadline, getting as much value out of their star players as possible, and rebuilding for a future perennial contender.

That’s a fair argument and I don’t think it is crazy, but I am not going to make it. The old adage, “flags fly forever,” rings true. Sure, the Padres could look to build a powerhouse in, say, 2012 or 13, but that plan – acquiring a “can’t miss” prospect or two for veteran stars with expiring contracts – might not materialize either.  Meanwhile, the Padres sit in first place, and adding a couple of legitimate players at the deadline will only increase the likelihood that they will be playing post-season baseball this season, and if not, at least be in contention through September. It is not easy to build a .588 team with a good shot at the playoffs, so once it happens, even if by accident, it doesn’t usually make sense to disassemble it.

Further, giving up on a season like this, even if it is the correct decision long-term, will never sit well with a fan base. While you can’t always try to please the fans – Jed Hoyer was part of a Red Sox front office that traded Nomar Garciaparra during the 2004 season; it turned out okay – it would be scary to see the reaction in San Diego after blowing up a first place team and dealing away the franchise player.

Earlier last month, Friar Forecast turned three years old. Since the blog (in its current state) made its debut in June 2007, there has been only one month in which it did not see an update (September 2008). Overall, we have had 712 posts, good for an average of about 24 per month.

I just know you want to see that in graphical form:

Seriously, though, when I started this blog as a freshman in college, I had no clue that it would be around three years later*. And if you read some of my early posts, you probably had the same doubts. We have certainly come a long way since then, and I like to think the coverage we are providing now is on par with the best of the Padres blogs and websites in all of cyberspace. If not, we’ll get there.

Thanks to *everyone* who has been a reader or helped us out in any way. Here’s to another three years!

*Big thanks go out to Daniel, who has run this blog for the past 15 months and really kept it alive.